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BB&T Capital Markets analysts say Bed Bath &Beyond prices are 6.5% lower than Amazon. When the 20% coupon is added this can reach 25%. The 5-10-% in sales tax created a gap in Amazon pricing vs. brick and mortar retailers. Now that sales taxes are collected on internet sales in states such as Florida, Texas, New Jersey and California this narrows the pricing gap. Best Buy is offering guarantees to match Amazon prices in their stores.

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Ford is offering packages with additional incentives, college tution for entire family, packages of upto $140,000 to sign up workers to take buyouts. Its goal is to get 8000 more workers to take buyouts. This is in addition to the 32,000 workers already given buyouts or early retirement.It is putting up job fairs in its plants and mailing each of its 54,000 hourly workers full length DVD " Connecting With Your Future" that shows the advantages of looking beyond the assembly line jobs in auto plants. This suggests that Ford has done its anlaysis and sees things getting tougher in the US auto market over the next few years. The US auto industry will definitely see a smaller market and shrinking sales from now on. Just look at the shrinking sales in the Japanese and German auto industry. Something like this is likely to happen in the US and the attention to sales is going to shift overseas where most of the new sales are going to occur. Companies like GM and Ford will do what IBM and GE are doing shifting their focus to overseas sales in an expanding global economy with more than 50% of their sales from overseas and the US markets playing a smaller role. All this means fewer workers needed in the USA and new workers and plants to be put up overseas in new international locations over the next 10-15 years. Its not just a down cycle for the auto industry, its a big shift and the kind of change that happens every 50 or 100 years as huge macro changes are underway in the world....

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John Taylor on the dual mandate for inflation and unemployment and discretionary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve that ended up creating booms and busts in the U.S. economy. He advocates replacing the dual mandate of "maximum employment" and "stable prices," which was inserted into the Federal Reserve Act in the 1970's, with a single mandate for "long-run price stability." Taylor points out that this will still give the Fed flexibility, as it is focussed on long run price stability. The Fed does not have to overreact to short run increases in inflation. And he points out that this actually will work well for unemployment as the booms caused by an overextended period of low interest rates such as that in 2003-2005, have led to booms followed by busts with high unemployment.

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Vic Starmer spent the day after Thursday's election night at a race course in Surrey. Her mother introduced her to flat racing and she spent time at the Doncaster race course while growing up. She is a solicitor, ten years younger than Keir Starmer, and works in occupational health for the NHS. Vic met Keir Starmer when he called her about a brief she prepared as a solicitor. Starmer says their first interaction was when she was questioned about the brief and s she put down the phone was overheard saying "who the fuck does he think he is?"  Vic grew up in a middle class home in north London the daughter of a father whose family left Poland in the 1930's who worked as a accountant, and a mother who was a GP physician. She went to Cardiff University to study sociology and law, was elected student union president in 1994. They married when Keir was 45 years. Keir Starmer says about her-      " very sassy, very down to earth, no nonsense from anyone." She was political long before Keir, she understands politics, yet she wants to stay outside politics. On the walls in their Kentish Town kitchen the pictures reflect her space, nothing political, just the Doncaster race course, a familiar space for her.   ...

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Media accounts have given so much attention to the Nixon Feb. 1972 visit to China that most people may be unaware that this was just an important yet small beginning. The significance of what happened after 1972 is not fully understood. In 1973 the US liasion Office was setup in Beijing and China's liasion office in Washington DC.  Beyond this not much happened. Why? In 1972 election year the Watergate scandal started in June of that year only 4 months after the Nixon China visit. Nixon was too engaged with fighting impeachment that there was not much followup to the visit to China. In 1974 Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became president. Till Carter became president in 1976 and in 1977 negotiations began to upgrade relations with premier Deng Xiaoping visiting the US in 1979. In China too a lot was happening. Mao was hospitalized in 1972 during Nixon's visit to China, the reason for the urgency on the Chinese side. In 1976 within a few months first premier Chou en lai and then chairman Mao passed away. A power struggle led to the head of the Military Commission Deng taking control. It was not till 1977 under Jimmy Carter 5 years after 1972 that China began full normalization, gained diplomatic recognition as the People's Republic of China and trade, cultural contacts were started.   ...

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In novels and short stories Mo Yan writes about Chinese life in the villages and rural areas using animal narrators and fairy tales His novel "Red Sorghum," tackles the issues of the Japanese occupation, bandits and the difficult conditions in rural China. This novel was made into a movie by Zhang Yimou. In its citation for the award of the Nobel literature prize for 2012, the Swedish Academy says: "Through a mixture of fantasy and reality, historical and social perspectives Mo Yan has created a world reminiscent in its complexity of those in the writings of William Faulkner and Gabriel Garcia Marquez, at the same time finding a departure point in old Chinese literature and in oral tradition."

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China is not experiencing high unemployment in 2012 the way it did in 2009. The lower growth rate of 7-8% is not having an adverse impact on unemployment. This makes it possible for the stimulus this time to be much smaller. There is rising upward pressure on wages. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC and WSJ, average annual wages at private sector manufacturing companies in current U.S. dollars was up 5% in 2009, 16% in 2010, and 20% in 2011. This is being encouraged by the government as China gradually shifts its economy towards higher domestic consumption and better standards of living for workers. Hon Hai Precision Industry Company added 82,000 workers in China in 2011. Salaries at the Shenzen plant were 2200 yuan or $345 a month in February 2012, an increase of 10%. An April survey by Manpower Group showed that a majority of companies will increase workers or hold employment stable, only 3% of companies will have job cuts. Demographic changes are also playing a part-with fewer people in the 15-19 age range, dropping from 120 million in 2005 to 95 million in 2015, according to UN estimates. The number of migrant workers remains steady at 252 million in 2012, up 4% from 242 million in 2010, according to the Bureau of National Statistics....

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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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Blake of the Washington Post says president Trump finds himself in the same situation as president Obama, who came into office wanting to scale down the effort in Afghanistan, and early in his presidency signed off on a troop surge under commander McChrystal. Trump in the election campaign expressed strong disapproval of interventionist policies. The deteriorating situation in Afghanistan makes it necessary to make an infustion of American troops- a policy being developed by Gen. Mattis. The change now is to insist vigorously on anti-corruption measures and good governance in return for aid. 

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In a conversation before an audience at the IMF on May 6, 2015, U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman, Janet Yellen, says about stock market valuations in early 2015- "I would highlight that equity market valuations at this point are generally quite high. Not so high when you compare returns on equity to returns on safe assets like bonds, which are also very low, but there are potential dangers there." She was responding to a question from IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on whether the Fed's low rate policies were creating a bubble in financial markets. S&P 500 company earnings for the 1st quarter- with 417 companies having reported results- show earnings growth of 0.2%, according to FactSet. The Dow Jones Average is up 0.1%, and the S&P 500 up 1%, for the year. Yellen said about financial stability- "Risks to financial stability are moderated, not elevated at this point. There was a great deal we missed before the crisis, I believe we are better prepared." The preparation includes the stress tests and higher capital requirements being set by the Fed to ensure banks can cope with losses, and the living wills arrangement for too-big-to-fail companies. Yellen conveyed her own sense of the proper role of the financial sector and the role of the Federal Reserve in promoting that role for social, economic and technological progress, in a clear and insightful manner- " A well-functioning financial sector promotes job creation, innovation and inclusive economic growth. But when the incentives facing financial firms are distorted, these firms may act in ways that can harm society. Appropriate regulation, coupled with vigilant supervision, is essential to address these issues."...

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The former head of U.S. Homeland Security ministry, Mr. Chertoff, and the former head of NATO, Mr. Anders Rasmussen, say the U.S. and European allies are not prepared to meet Russian meddling in elections two years after the U.S. elections and elections in the last year in Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Both co-chair Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity. They expect 20 elections between now and 2020, and see 20 opportunities for Russian meddling in these elections- suggesting the response to the recent meddling is very inadequate. They cite the shift from fake news to hyper partisan narrative used in the Italian election. This approach uses some content that is true to weave a narrative that leads to an exaggerated version of events. It was used on immigration to appeal to immigrant weary Italians to lead to a situation where the anti-immigrant party Northern League attracted a large portion of the vote. This approach is not new as it was used by pro-Brexiters with ads showing an unending wave of immigrants crossing European borders. Suggesting Britain itself was facing this wave of immigration, using pictures of immigrants from Africa crossing the borders of Hungary and Austria. Placed on buses and billboards this influenced the election, including hyper narrative stories about what how the UK was sending 350 million pounds a week to the European Union which could go to the NHS instead. Britain's Liberal Party leader Nick Clegg and Joe Biden former Vice President are members of the new Commission. ...

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Biden's address to Congress after three years of the pandemic marks a turning point for America like Lincoln in 1962 and FDR in 1933. As Biden surveys the damage done to the country not just by Covid loss of 1 million lives, he sees the closing of factories and abandoning of communities that depended on them all over America, abandoned by administrations of either party. Which has led to a loss of faith in the fairness of the system and of democracy itself.  "And two years ago democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. And today though bruised, it remains unbowed and unbroken. . . That's always been my vision for this country, and I know its many of yours. To restore the soul of this nation. To rebuild the backbone of America, America's middle class." Biden sees a complete rebuilding of America to bring back manufacturing, restore American leadership in manufacturing. And invest three hundred billion dollars for the effort that will create jobs and new opportunities.  "For decades, the middle class has been hollowing out, and more than- and no one administration, but for a long time. Too many good paying manufacturing jobs moved overseas. Factories closed down. Once thriving cities and towns that many of you represent became shadows of what they used to be. And along the way, something else we lost. Pride, our sense of self-worth. I ran for president to fundamentally change things, to make sure our economy works for everyone so we can all feel that pride in what we do. To build an economy from the bottom up, not from the top down. Because when the middle class does well, the poor have a ladder up, and the wealthy still do very well. We all do well." "Folks I've been criticized for saying this, but I am not changing my view. We're going to make sure the supply chain for America begins in America. The supply chain begins in America." "And when we do these projects- and again I get criticized for it but I am making no excuses for it- we're going to buy American. We're going to buy American. Folks, and it's totally consistent with international trade rules. Buy American has been the rule since 1933. But for too long, past administrations, Democratic and Republican, have fought to get around it. Not anymore. . . Folks my economic plan is about investing in places and people that have been forgotten. So many of you listening to me tonight, I know you feel it. So many of you felt simply that you've been forgotten. Amid the economic upheaval of the last four decades, too many people have been left behind and treated like they're invisible."   ...

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Geeta Anand and Jaeyeon Woo of the WSJ give this heartwarming story of how South Korea achieved a remarkable transformation in attitudes towards women in society after 1990, and reversed a dangerous imbalance in the ratio of females to males. This was done by the release of extraordinary energy of woman activists after the end of dictatorship in 1990 made this possible, and the efforts of media, courts, government and society. Women won the right to be heirs in the family lineage, and perceptions of women as well as the opportunities open to women changed in this period. Today the Korean government provides $177 a month for the first 5 years for child care at home. The story of one mother and daughter and their experiences, of Ms. Lim and Ms. Ko, both teaching at the university and having daughters only, shows how South Korea has changed by 2016. Moving further South Korea's government now offers incentives to companies to make paternity leave policies generous, with municipal governments adding cooking classes and housekeeping courses for fathers. ...

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Investments made by president Biden and Congress of $1 trillion in manufacturing and infrastructure will take time to go into effect. It is wrong to say this shows limits of this policy of investing in America as it has increased growth, maintained employment levels, and helped America recover from the pandemic. Biden did this for the National good not for Democrats and it was designed to benefit red and blue states like. Its effects will be felt long after the next election cycle in just 3 years January 2028, so that to say that president Trump or Republicans would get credit is an erroneous notion. The next president could come from the opposite party and the long term effects of this could benefit all parties, giving everyone a stake in making it work. The narrow view also overlooks the great benefits from this investment of $1 trillion for America's trading partners and allies in Asia and Europe, the American leadership role in CHIPS and Science as a result, and the respect of the world in the way America has handled its economic affairs. ...

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Syrian refugees number 1 million in Germany and Austria. In Turkey 3.5 million, in Lebanon 800,000, Jordan 600,000. 6-7 million Syrian refugees all over the world. The figures are large for displaced people and refugees worldwide. About 60 million displaced, over 30 million refugees and about 6 million asylum seekers. (UNHCR figures). Some are in transit as one report in The Times shows 800,000 entered Greece in 2015. It was at the time of the financial crisis in Greece and other countries, putting a great strain on resources. Even as illegal migration is criticized in many European countries, the fact that Europeans have given refuge to so many at risk of strain in their social systems is also something the says a lot about the goodwill and resilience in European societies after two world wars. A similar show of sentiment is appropriate from these countries in the Middle East and Africa, from the diaspora, and needs to be translated into action by looking at better models of managing the economies and government of these nations so that mistakes of the past are not repeated and there is a place for all. ...

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One Big Beautiful Act passed in US Senate with Vance casting tie breaking vote. It renews the tax cuts from DJT's first term in office in 2017 and provides tax cuts to seniors, middle class, and small business. It provides 100% expensing for business to increase investment. Mothers get child care credit that is doubled, senior citizens over 65 years get a $6000 deduction. The seniors deduction means 88% of seniors will now pay no taxes on social security benefits from 64%. Medicaid changes so that able bodied Americans will have to put in 80 hours of work to qualify.  Note that the Medicaid program was becoming unworkable and unsustainable- starting with the idea of helping people unable to work and transitioning those who could work, it jumped to $228 billion cost in 2000 from $28 billion in 1980, ten times over 20 years. Going up to $918 billion in 2024, 4 times the 2000 level. Medicaid is now 62% of what Social Security costs, $918 billion compared to $1480 billion for Social Security. ...

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Matt Miller's stump speech as an independent candidate and his 7 proposals for Renewing America.

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Disappointment for those who had high expectations for the Obama Presidency. The slog of daily governance proves too much. Attempting too much in too short a time. Polarization in Congress. And the person Obama is -transformative but cautious.

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Renault's low cost entry cars which were originally designed with emerging markets in mind, are now popular in France and other countries in Europe. Renault gets 30% of its market share, up from 15% in 2006, from low cost cars like the Logan, which cost conscious buyers buy for around $10,000, instead of buying a used car. This has helped Renault at a time when other segments are not doing so well, and when Peugeot had to arrrange a 1 billion euro emergency capital increase. The profit margin on these low cost cars is 6%, compared to 2-3% profit margin on other Renault models. Renault manufactures the cars under the Renault label or the Dacia lavel depending on where they are sold, and uses a factory in Romania. Renault's model is to set the margin first and then ask suppliers such as LG and others to try to come up with a low cost design that meets its margin requirement. This eliminates features that add cost and may be dispensed with for the customer in mind. It requires a fresh approach. Cutting edge is replaced by working with parts designed for older models that cost less. Renault also used the experience gained in the Romanian factory where some of the tasks are done manually instead of using robots, and waste is reduced. The process has taken time because the Dacia Romanian factory was acquired under a previous CEO Louis Schweitzer in the late 1990's, and the first Dacia Logan was made in the Romanian factory at Pitesti, near Bucharest, in 2004. The reliability of the Dacia made cars is well established, say experts. On the sales side the Logan is sold on a no discount basis with fixed price. Dealers are told no discounts are permitted. Total sales of these cars reached 814,000 in 2011 and are expected to cross 1 million in 2012. This is similiar to the achievement of Toyota with its low cost multipurpose vehicles for emerging markets, which is expected to cross 1 million in 2012. The difference is that Renault has achieved this with European buyers in a bold strategy. Tata Motors which pioneered the effort to build low cost small cars with its $2000 vehicle is planning its own entry in Europe, the Pixel as a low cost city-car in European markets in 2015. And Renault is moving further down in cost than the Logan, as its next step, with such a car manufactured in India by Nissan-Renault and regional partners....

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Denning says that because of the enormous repercusions on Iran's economy of a war in the Persian Gulf, a more likely scenario is not the cutoff of supplies of Iranian oil altogether but a smaller list of buyers for Iranian oil, making Iran sell the oil at a discount. Saudi Arabia's and Libya's added production would bring more oil to the market. The impact will be larger on Europe because of the decline in the value of the euro, with Brent crude on a 12 month average basis costing 14% more now than in the peak price in 2008. By comparison in dollar terms the comparable figure is 4% higher for the U.S. At a price of Brent crude of $120 in 2012, according to Citigroup, energy costs would take up 9% of world GDP, putting pressure on a economic recovery in Europe and the U.S.