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Greg Ip points out that Saudi Arabia's effort to get back market share is not working so far as shale oil producers continue to increase production. OPEC now confronts a very different competitor in the U.S. shale oil industry- 77 different producers produce 75% of American oil production, each acting like a tech startup, with access to capital markets which are continuing to provide capital. These producers can increase or reduce production with agility, and act differently from state owned oil producers or the major western oil companies. He cites Goldman Sachs figures showing average rig in Texas Eagle Ford shale yielding 5000 barrels a day in the first year compared to 2000 barrels in 2011. This analysis also shows shale oil production cost on a declining curve- $80 in 2014 and $60 in 2015, which could upset Saudi calculations with the advances in technology. Majors such as ExxonMobil are also moving forward with the technological advances.

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Alan Meltzer points out that Milton Friedman never supported increasing inflation to reduce the unemployment rate. The exception is when there is deflation. As an honorary advisor to the Bank of Japan, Meltzer, says he advised Japan to buy long-term bonds in the 1990's to increase money growth until deflation ended. Meltzer says there is no sign of deflation now, and the Fed's claim that there is a risk of deflation is because it uses the CPI (consumer price index) as a measure of inflation, and the CPI shows substantially less inflation than other indicators such as the Personal consumption expenditure deflator. The CPI he says gives double the weight to housing prices according to Meltzer

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An account by Journal reporters based on over 25 interviews with eurozone policymakers shows how the central players in the eurozone drama acted to defend their national interests during the period April to July 2011. On one side France's president Sarkozy, Frenchman Claude Trichet at the European Central Bank, arguing in favor of the banks not to take bondholder losses or haircuts on loans made to Greece. On the other side the Bundesbanks Axel Weber, and Jens Weidman, Jurgen Stark and German Finance Minister Schauble. The Germans argued strongly for bondholder losses to take responsibility for bad loan decisions by French and German banks. French banks had committed more loans to Greece than German banks and had more at stake. German public opinion was strongly against German taxpayers paying for the losses, making German politicians insistent that European banks take losses on their bad loan decisions, or Germany would not support additional loans to Greece. Throughout April to July the two sides were locked in an impasse. The French feared losses for their banks and a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy style situation. The Germans at the Bundesbank and the Finance Ministry were equally insistent. A July 2011 summit meeting did not settle the issue. The events not covered here from the July to the December summit of eurozone leaders resulted in bondholders taking 50% haircut on loans to Greece, reducing the debt burden in Greece after austerity measures led to popular protests. The French pushed hard for the ECB or the EFSF to be allowed to make large purchases of bonds of troubled eurozone countries in an effort to protect Spain and Italy from contagion through higher bond yields. The Netherlands and Finland supported Germany's position. German bankers Weber, Weidman at the Bundesbank and Finance Minister Schauble opposed large scale buying by the ECB of Italy's and Spain's bonds and Chancellor Merkel said about a common eurobond that "this is not going to happen." Governments changed in Greece, Italy, and Spain by Dec. 2011, which committed to austerity programs and spending cuts. Italian Mario Draghi was appointed with German support as new head of the ECB. In late December 2011 Draghi launched the Long Term Financing Operation for lending unlimited amounts at 1% for three year loans to European banks and relaxing the terms to accept government bonds and other debt as collateral for loans. The effect of this was to provide a large infusion of liquidity into the banking system in Europe and drastically bring down the yields on bonds issued by Italy and Spain....

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This is a big desicion by the Obama administration, and has global implications for the amount of oil consumed and the emissions discharged. The Obama administration will introduce one national standard for automile emissions and mileage standards, replacing the patchwork of standards and skipping over the challenges to the California standards by using those standards to set the national rules. The rules take effect in 2012. It will create a new national standard for a car and light truck fleet in the USA, that is 40% cleaner and more fuel efficient by 2016 than it is now, with a new average of 35.5 miles per gallon. The current national standard is 25 miles per gallon, and this standard has fallen way behind the Japanese and the Europeans. The Europeans went through their battles for fuel efficiency a few years ago with auto industry resistance, and this was finally settled with tougher standards, giving the European industry advantages in technology over the Americans. The American car industry stalled higher standards, and what standards were passed were whittled down by heavy lobbying in Congress. As a result a battle raged between those interested in conservation and the environment and the Detroit car industry, especially in a deteriorating global environment for this type of prolific oil consumption on American highways. This lack of foresight on the part of Detroit carmakers, and their management, accelerated their financial collapse in 2008 and 2009, as large car and truck sales collapsed. That this tough new standard of 40% improvement in 2016, would in fact not have been possible without this fiinancial collapse and turning to the government for a bailout - with the entire board of General Motors being replaced- is one of the ironies of this situation. This decision will almost certainly accelerate the development of smaller models, and bring the kind of attention to them that will give them the quality and features and comfort to make them command higher prices and become profitable, as is the case in Europe. For too long the American small car became synonymous with being a lesser car in many dimensions of design, quality, comfort and performance, so that it became a cheap car that you upgraded from to a larger car as you became affluent. It had been that way, but did not have to be that way after the world had changed. And the larger models like the pickup trucks and large cars are more likely to be phased out with the new regulations. This will also bring a `new sanity to oil prices, as the reduced consumption in the US will accomodate the increased consumption in India from the small cars like the Tata Nano which look set to sell in the millions, and still keep oil affordable for tight budgets worldwide. In this sense it is a victory for global good sense. For President Obama this is a personal quest, as he co-sponsored 2 bills in 2006, during this second year in the US Senate, one to raise fuel economy standards, and the other to encourage the use of alternative fuels....

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Sony has lost its focus, it is in so many lines of business, that its brand identity has been lost. Especially in Japan where it is in cosmetics, massage, mailorder shopping club, insurance, finance, robots etc. It has 1000 subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide, of which a third are unrelated to its core electronics business. How does this hurt? It hurts because management is distracted, and when top management is distracted then its not focussing on customers, changing business trends, creativity in its business pioneering new products. In a big company this problem is just magnified by the bureaucracy that develops. Problems similiar to the ones faced by IBM and General Motors. The analysts and Howard Stringer talk about restoring the Sony premium. What is a premium, its not just the brand, its the innovation or something special behind the brand that enables it to command the premium. Stringer probably understands that its the innovative edge that Sony as lost. See the other piece "Howard Stringer, Sony's Road Warrior" by Siklos and Fackler in the Sunday NYT, May 30, 2006 with Stringer shown in a large picture imagining him as a Sumo wrestler. An unforgettable picture. In that piece it becomes clear that Stringer is keenly aware about Sony's and Japan's weakness in software which is increasingly driving success in products when combined innovatively with new bold concepts. He says there that Sony takes great pride in its hardware, and this is true of Japanese creative spirit in innovative and miniature gadgetry, but its capabilities in software are very modest. As one action step Stringer has hired Tim Schaaf , a senior Apple executive to lead that effort at Sony. The other part, getting the focus back by focussing on customers of electronic products is evident in this piece. Ryoji Chubachi, head of electronics and co-head of Sony with Stringer, regularly visits large retailers to offer incentives for making Sony products more visible, something the prior management failed to do. The prior management failed to focus on customers, and thought it beneath their highflying ways. One of the decisions by Chubachi in TV's is to price HDTV sets close to the price of Panasonic, Samsung and Sharp at large retailers in Japan. This makes sense to gain market leader status, as it shows Sony is living in the real world and taking decisions appropriate and relevant to a premium free environment in television sets. You a manufacturer cannot imagine a premium, a premium is a perception in the minds of customers and most likely reflects a perception of uniqueness, creativity, fashion and some other attribute, which can include engineering. Sony's philosophy has stated in Akio Morita's book "Made in Japan", was to be a pioneer, to walk the untrodden ways, break new ground. One aspect of this in comparison to Matsushita, Sharp and other competitors, was going to be its individuality, something Morita borrowed from his days in the US, because it is typically American and sort of unJapanese in a way. Though this is a generalization and many American companies merely follow and some Japanese companies have their own way of doing things even if it is thought of as being very Japanese like, witness Toyota in its Aichi prefecture surroundings. In this light the surveys show Sony significantly deteriorating in "conspicuous individuality." The New York Times cites a survey from BP Nikkei Consulting in Tokyo that the number of consumers saying that Sony showed "conspicuous individuality dropped to about 25% from about 40% the year before. ...

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John Taylor on the dual mandate for inflation and unemployment and discretionary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve that ended up creating booms and busts in the U.S. economy. He advocates replacing the dual mandate of "maximum employment" and "stable prices," which was inserted into the Federal Reserve Act in the 1970's, with a single mandate for "long-run price stability." Taylor points out that this will still give the Fed flexibility, as it is focussed on long run price stability. The Fed does not have to overreact to short run increases in inflation. And he points out that this actually will work well for unemployment as the booms caused by an overextended period of low interest rates such as that in 2003-2005, have led to booms followed by busts with high unemployment.

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The story of Brazil's sugarcane plantation industry, and also of its ethanol producing region. A detailed account of the people who own these plantations and why they are reluctant to sell. The difficulties of getting into the sugarcane planation industry in brazil with its small owners and fragmented nature, and use of labor that violates Brazilian laws and international standards. These sgar cane plantations are located next to the mills because of the available infrastructure, and family owned sometimes handed down for generations, even hundreds of years, as Brazil was once a portuguese colony and a location for the slave trade which provided labor to the plantations. Note that most of the plantations use poorly paid labor and most of the work is done by hand, with the owners living in large ranchlike fazendas. Its probably another world for international investors not used to such a landscape. There are labor and environmental liabilities in owning some of these mills. Then most of these mills do not keep reliable accounting books and have tax and debt issues which cannot be easily resolved in Brazil's slow legal system. There are about 210 companies running 368 sugar and ethanol mills. The five largest companies generate only 17% os sales gives some idea of the fragmentation in the industry. There is also the perception that if large foreign companies like the ADM, Australia's CSR, Germany's Sudzucker AG, or even India's Bajaj Hindusthan, or others gain control over Brazil's ethanol industry Brazil's sugar producing regions would benefit less than if they get loans from large Brazilian or international banks and consolidate and modernize themselves, leading to political pressures in this direction. One such example is given here, one valuable sugar mill Vale de Rosario has been pursued by Bunge with an offer of $640 million for outright ownership, but Vale de rosario's board rejected the offer. Cargill looked at the possiblilty of owning 30% but was also turned away. Attempts at consolidation by Cosan, Brazil's largest sugar manufacturer, which made agreements with relatives owning 50.2 % of the shares in the company which has about a 100 relative clan with shares in the company over generations, also failed. The Biagi and Franco families which run the company made use of a defense under the cooperative's bylaws which allows the smallest shareholder to have 30 days to equal any takeover offer. The Biagis offered their own Santa Elisa mill to secure a $675 million credit line from Brazil's largest private bank Bradesco which was then used to buy out relatives who wanted the money. Now the Vale de Rosario and Santa Elisa mills have merged and are looking for international financing for the new company Santelisa Vale, which becomes the second largest after Cosan. Goldman Sachs plans to invest 200 million in Santelisa Vale.What this shows is the extraordinary lengths these family owned mills would go to to preserve their independent ways of operating and hand over to the next generation. Another difficulty is that industry experts are hard to recruit from these family owned companies as they have spent alifetime working there and remain loyal. With allthese obstacles the logic that the foreign companies can use Brazil to supply the world with ethanol from sugarcane does not take hold. Some of the attraction of sugarcane is that it contributes less to global warming than corn as a source for ethanol because sugarcane absorbs some of the CO2 when it is replanted. With a 51 cent per gallon tax credit subsidy on USA corn based ethanol and a 50 cent tariff on Brazilian ethanol imported into the USA, corn based ethanol can sustain in the US especially with the current high price of gasoline. Brazillian ethanol is more efficient to make from sugarcane and can be made to compete with gasoline even if gasoline prices drop. Instead there may be more years of unstable supply of ethanol from Brazil ahead which is what the Japanese in their negotiations for a supply of ethanol from Brazil have discovered since seeking such an agreeement since 2001. In the 1980's Brazilian sugar producers chasing high sugar prices lowered production of ethanol and left drivers without ethanol at the pumps. One company that is looking at another solution is Brenco, Brazilian Renewable Energy Company, a startup company backed by Ron Burkle and Vinod Khosla. It plans to put up its own green field sugar cane fields away from Sao Paulo state where the Brazilian sugar cane industry is presently concentrated. But this will take six year before the fields are ready for ethanol production. Henri Reichstul, a former head of Petroleo brasileiro, Brazil's national oil company, now leads Brenco. ...

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Mary Barra, 49, is appointed as the new leader of global product development at GM. Her background is in engineering, manufacturing and human resources. Barra is an electrical engineer who has been with GM for 30 years, was a vice president for global manufacturing and engineering, and manager of a Detroit assembly plant.

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The problems with a second phase of quantitative easing, go back to asking why the first phase hasn't worked to prevent the economy from sliding back. So far the Fed has engaged in buying $1.7 trillion in bonds in that first phase. This shows the limitations of this approach. A lot of money was injected into banks. And the banks have $1 trillion on their books that is not being used for lending. The reason being its hard to find borrowers, as borrowers are cautious and concerned about the economic future. The Quantitative Easing in this second phase is supported by the reasoning that deflation risks remain. But this raises another question, what level of quantitiative easing would work, and would such enormous levels itself cause bigger problems.

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The Chevy Volt GM's plug in electric car comes out in 2010. Toyota plans to bring its plug in electric car in late 2009. A company in China, BYD, has already come out with an electric car, the F3DM, priced at 150,000 yuan or $22,000. By contrast the Chevy Volt is expected to be priced at $40,000 when it comes out in 2010. Essentially this gives the market leadership to BYD, because it would have 2 years of experience with its cars on the road, and $40,000 is just not a commercially viable price if a competitor can sell it for half the price. So how does BYD do it? Wang Chuanfu is founder and chairman of BYD Co. a battery and car maker. BYD has built up low cost, high quality and highly motivated research and development capabilities. Wang put together about 10,000 technicians and engineers, many fresh out of colleges and technical schools in China. As it learns the efficiencies of manufacturing and design it is able to bring this to bear on the H3DM improvement, for introduction of other new electric car models. And this technical capacity comes at a much lower cost in China compared to western countries. Wang's focus on this area making it possible to price at $22,000. The CEO of Mid American an Iowa based energy producer with majority stake ownership of Warren Buffett, was attracted to BYD for this very reason, and bought a 10% stake in BYD for $230 million. Wang believes there is a more level playing field in electric cars because of the simplicity of their design and fewer parts, making for a faster move up the learning curve. Electric cars have just 2 motors (45 parts each) and 2 gearboxes (60 parts each), a total of 210 parts excluding nuts and bolts. BYD's gasoline car the F6 has 1400 powertrain parts, 840 parts for the V6 and for transmission 560 parts. Says Wang, this puts all of us on the same starting line. The F3DM is the first real electric car being able to go for 60 miles exclusively on electricity on a full charge. A car that can go 180 miles on one full charge called the BYD e6 is planned for 2009. BYD uses iron-phosphate technology which is safer because of stable chemicals and less chance of fire from overheating. This is a key criteria for this lithium ion battery technology for cars. The Chevy Volt battery being developed by A123 company at MIT uses a similiar technology. BYD started with lithium ion battery development years ago. Its founder Mr Wang was fascinated by batteries when he studied metallurgical physics and chemistry in the mid 1980's for his Masters degree. He found a research position at the General Research Institute of Nonferrous Metals in Beijing, then decided to form his own company BYD in 1995, to develop lithium ion batteries with about 20 engineers. Experience was gained selling batteries to Samsung, Nokia and Motorola. In 2002 the company went public on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Wang was attracted to the idea of electric cars at this early stage even though he did not know how to drive. In 1998, says Wang, he had his engineers start upscaling development from cellphone battery technology to electric car battery technology. At the same time to pursue his vision for the development of electric cars Wang made the decision to learn car development by making and selling gasoline cars. The first car was a small sedan called the F3 brought out in 2005. By the last quarter of 2008 the F3 was one of China's best selling automobiles. Demand for BYD's F3 and F10 models is growing even as car sales are dropping in China, helping BYD to gain in car sales relative to Cherry Automobile and Geely Holding, two of the largest competitors. ...

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Galston of the Brookings Institution says globalization has hurt workers in manufacturing with job losses and declining incomes. It has produced outcomes that have favored some industries such as tech, and not others such as automobiles which in the past helped create the broad middle class by offering good paying jobs to people with less than a college education. Immigration has created an issue that political leaders outside of the main parties have appealed to in France, the U.S. and Britain. The result is a polarization in the voters that has rarely been seen to this extent before. The middle class in the period from the 1950's to the 1980's is not the middle class that we see today in Europe and the U.S. The 2008 financial crisis added to the problems with the slow and uncertain recovery for some groups such as white men, the less educated, students, and people on minimum wage.