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Portfolio manager Robert Arnett, who manages two of PIMCO's funds, has some alarming things to say about the environment retirees face in the future. In ten years for every working age person added to the workforce there will be 10 new retirees, the complete reverse of what it was ten years ago when there were 10 new working age persons for every new retiree. The impact of this will take the shape of many more retirees selling stocks and bonds to live on and fewer buyers for the bonds and securities, lowering the prospects for higher prices for bonds and securities. He expects the demand for goods and services to continue with higher prices. He sees stocks giving a nominal return of about 5%, bonds a nominal return of 2-4%, for a balanced portfolio yield of about 4%, during the next 10-20 years. After inflation and taxes the returns will be very thin. Expectations of 10% returns do not take into account deficits, debt, and demography in developed countries, says Arnott.

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Can OpenAI pay? Does it have $300 billion? These are the questions analysts are asking. Remaining Performance Obligations is RPO's which refer to a company meeting probable targets which are not certain. Oracle stock went up 36% in one day because it was saying it would get thei $300 billion from OpenAI. Now as analysts look carefully at Oracle surge they are saying wait a minute who has this $300 billion. This report in the WSJ says RPO's for Oracle are now up to $523 billion. Oracle stock is now down 43%. Analysts are questioning these outlandish claims. Another claim is from the "circularity" in the AI sector, which means A is connected to B is connected to C. OpenAI expects $100 billion in investment from Nvidia which makes advanced chips, but is it definite? Nvidia says in it's latest quarterly report that "there is no assurance that any investment will be completed, on expected terms, it at all." Note that OpenAI makes hardly any money today and is in fundraising stage- it has expectation to make $20 billion. And the $300 billion where does all this come from? When most people in the Nation are living from paycheck to paycheck there is this wild speculation and mania in the AI sector.   ...

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"Because of the pressure on public services that resentment (by public) is real"- Shabana Mohamed tears up old rules in asylums that put migrants before British neighborhoods. Under the old rules refugees were given 5 years of protection and allowed to bring their families, followed by possible permanent status. Now this is cut to 30 months and if the country is safe the person has to go back, Waiting time to be able to settle in Britain will be extended to 10 years. The system worked in Denmark cutting by 90% the flow of migrants. In 2025 100,000 claimed asylum inUK half of them coming in small boats.  The asylum people placed in hotels has resulted in an outcry from locals in many British towns who see a way of life of the British people being pressured by the migrants some from remote countries with different cultures and leading to lack of safety for women on the streets. In Denmark without these changes the labour working class party would have lost power to a movement like that of Nigel Farage Reform UK which wants to shut the door completely on migrants. Public patience appears to be gone. Similar situations have happened in Dutch politics and is happening in other countries including Germany and France. ...

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With July 9 deadline coming up, tariffs on Japan and South Korea go up to 25%, and a warning is sent to BRICS countries China, Brazil and India on July 7, 2025 of additional 10% in tariffs.

DJT stated on his social media site Truth Social- "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged additional 10% tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

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US foreign direct investment to China goes down 40% in 2020 to 2022 compared to the period 2015 to 2020, for India this was up by 20%, according to IMF. India was the only G-20 country that received this level of foreign direct investment. Prashant Jha of the Hindustan Times correctly points out that the IMF paper and the model on which this paper is based are flawed. The paper sees countries based on alignment and India as a so called non aligned country not part of friendshoring, even though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has openly called for friendshoring in India alongside finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. IMF experts have not caught up to Mr. Biden's remarks about the US- India relationship that it would be "the closest on earth." Closer even than America's relationship with Britain or Europe. On oil imports Biden and Jake Sullivan believe that after the pandemic India should import oil at the lowest possible cost to meet the long time denied aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and build the infrastructure that will make it a critical part of America's new supply chain. Every time there are military drills and blockade of Taiwan by China the people of America are moving a step further away from American companies that have overconcentration of manufacturing in China and closer to calling for a new supply chain that reduces concentration in China and builds new manufacturing in India.  ...

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A further drop in the value of the ruble would increase the cost of servicing the $500 billion in foreign debt. Fitch downgraded Russia's credit rating to BBB, the main concern being the drop in foreign exchange reserves, down by $210 billion to $390 billion in 6 months. Forward rates on the ruble imply a further depreciation of 20% in 12 months. Russia last week abandoned its committment to stick to the 2009 budget. After the first $29 billion bailout for banks another $40 billion has been assigned for the banks. All this has shown clearly that for Russia the job of reforming the economy, of changing its dependence on oil and commodities, and shifting to manufacturing and high tech industries has hardly begun. As a writer at the Financial Times put it in a CSPAN talk show, Russia is like 120 million people gathered around a oil wellhead. Or as another writer puts it, it remains a dangerously leveraged bet on the oil price. This has ominous implications for Russia, and serious social implications in terms of unemployment, social unrest, and a crisis of expectations, as for the second time in the lives of this generation hopes are raised only to be disappointed....

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In a sign of the low returns in the past year for pension funds, the 896,000 California teacher retirement pension fund CALSTRS, shows returns for year ending June 30, 2016, at 1.3%. Half of the holdings of CALSTRS are in U.S. and global stocks with returns of negative 2.3%. Real estate provided return of 11% but overall the returns were low. Over 10 years the returns of CALSTRS are now at 5.6%. The California Public Employees Retirement System (CALPERS), says its returns on its investments were 0.6% for the past year. With large retirement obligations pension funds in the U.S. face real challenges in this low return environment. Private equity investments of CALSTRS had returns of 2.9%, also lagging behind.

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Autoworkers want a raise of 40% from depressed levels with two tiers one for entry level workers set really low during a crisis when auto companies were near or entering bankruptcy. Automobile companies want to use high profits for EV vehicles.  Autoworkers have worked hard through the pandemic and have suffered low wages for a decade, now face a cost of living crisis- the 40% should be seen in the context of starting a depressed level trying to meet costs of living that have surged in 2021-2022. If both conditions are removed the increase might be a modest closer to 10% over a hypothetical higher wage and lower cost of living.

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Sinner plays tennis in 40 degrees C at Australian Open 2026.

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Even with a 2024 2.4% general pay raise and 10% for junior enlisted in US military 25% of servicemen experience food insecurity or need food pantries. This WSJ report looks at the problem. It is simply outrageous that this should happen in 2025.

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IMF forecasts for Greece's growth rate are proving too optimistic. The IMF forecast is for zero growth in 2013, and increases of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015. Even in its pessimistic projections the IMF forecasts a 1% downturn in 2013 and growth of 1.3% and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015. The government sector was a large part of the economy. Now that this is shrinking, the export sector which only represents 20% of GDP is too small to generate needed growth. Greece also lacks the competitiveness and the large foreign enterprises that operate in Ireland, making growth less likely. A major problem is also the 40 billion euros Greeks have withdrawn from their banks in recent years. Even the figure of 120% of GDP that is expected in 2020 under the March 2012, 130 billion euro bailout is a very hypothetical figure, having no sound basis. Landon Thomas cites a confidential study the IMF had circulated in February 2012, showing the long term prospect for Greek debt if growth does not materialize because of lack of competitiveness. It would increase the debt to GDP ratio to 178% by 2015, and leave it at the current level of 160% of GDP in 2020. Some experts say the whole debt sustainability analysis makes no sense, with the question being insolvency in the case of Greece, not illiquidity. And requiring a focus to bring debt to manageable level to create prospects for growth. The Wall Street Journal emphasizes this in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012....

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Risk is inherent in investing. It just needs to be understood well and grasped. There is a lesson in here that some risk is necessary, depending on one's risk horizon and it does not have to be Argentine bonds. Argentine 100 year bond and US Treasury 30 year bond returns 2017-2025 show quite a surprise.  50% return for 2017-25 on Argentine 100 year bonds vs -10% on US Treasury 30 year bonds. It shows the nature of emerging market risk says the WSJ- political risk. At one point the Argentine bonds showed a 50% loss, yet investors willing to stick through the downturn did better than expected, much better. The recovery did not start till Jan 2024 though, 7 years later. In this case the risk was the pandemic in addition to political risk of Argentine earlier defaults but the recovery took place years after the pandemic declined and with the election of Milieu as president.

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Steinhauser, Walker and Stevis provide an exceptionally good account of the events leading to the March 25, 2013 EU 10 billion euro bailout of Cyprus, with the closing of one bank and the downsizing of another bank. The Cyprus government of president Anastasiades bluffed and lost. That Anastasiades and the Cyprus government would do this in serious negotiations with the finance ministers of Netherlands, Germany, France, the EU, ECB and the IMF at the headquarters in Brussels, in negotiations that ran to midnight on Sunday March 24, 2013, is simply astounding. Charles Dallara representing European bankers tried to do this with German chancellor Merkel at EU headquarters in Brussels during negotiations on Oct. 27, 2011, on an earlier confrontation over bondholder haircuts, bluffed to the last minute and lost. The way Cyprus handled the negotiations surpassed that. Right down to the last hours the Cyprus president waffled- backtracking on earlier agreement to close Cyprus Popular Bank. Calls were made by German finance minister Schauble to Merkel and by French finance minister Muscovici to French president Hollande to give a joint Franco-German response. Finally Anastasiades was told to pack up and leave on Sunday, March 24. The Cyprus government was not defending small depositors as its earlier plan was to tax all deposits at the two largest Cypriot banks 6.875%. Merkel saw this as an error as this would hurt small savers. The final agreement shut down Cyprus Popular Bank but protected insured deposits under 100,000 euros. Another disturbing sign for the ECB and the EU was Cyprus allowing several hundred million dollars to be wired out of the country even though banks were closed and an offical freeze on ouflows existed. A serious mistake in negotiations was when Cyprus finance minister kept EU finance ministers, the IMF and the ECB officials in the dark by not returning calls for 16 hours on Thursday March 25, 2013, while he tried to negotiate a deal in Moscow with Russia's Putin. This destroyed Cyprus's credibility leading to the ECB's warning to cut off liquidity to Cypriot banks which would put the banks into instant bankruptcy. By Friday morning, March 22, 2013, Merkel was angrily briefing her CDU party lawmakers on the negotiations, telling them the Cyprus government and Anastasiades did not get it, that the whole Cyprus model of outsized offshore banking sector- catering mainly to Russian investors - had collapsed. Cyprus unlike any other member of the EU was trying to face down Europe. Negotiations with Greece had been tough and street protests everpresent, yet negotiations went on in a responsible manner and in good faith, something missing here....

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Guiding the debt ceiling talks in a safe way that does not distract in any way from the stronger economy that is taking shape with large investments in every sector, and which people can see and feel in their own lives, is the goal of president Biden. It would be a win for Biden if overall spending can be kept at the level of 2023 for the next two years. How he does this is by maneouvres that concede somewhat in some areas- one example is by reducing spending on the Internal Revenue Service by $10 billion from $80 billion to $70 billion, and shift the $10 billion saved to education and other similar spending. The idea is to mitigate the effects of small cuts by shifting money from other places in the budget spending plan. These maneouvres are designed to keep the overall investment largely intact and deliver results in 2023 and 2024 in a rebuilding of America that the people can see. 

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Climate change is leading to floods in Bengaluru, Chennai and in the state of Andhra Pradesh in recent months. DW.com looks at the situation there. Studies show India' climate vulnerability. Southern regions are most vulnerable according to these studies, yet about 80% of India's population live in districts highly vulnerable to drought, flooding and cyclones. Bonn based Germanwatch says a surge in extreme events is noticeable since 2005 in India, and is triggered primarily by landscape disruptions.  Indian experts say land restoration and rehabilitation is one approach. Another is letting the water flow and redoing irrigation structures to capture rain- linking rivers to ponds, lakes and ditches so that water is free to flow.  Weather experts point out that surface temperature of Arabian sea has risen from 27 degrees Celsius (80 degrees Fahrenheit) to 29 degrees causing more frequent formation of low pressure areas and resulting in heavy rains. This DW.com report looks at weather patterns and extreme events around the world including in Madagascar and Brazil, Greece and British Columbia. ...

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Egypt accepts a $8 billion IMF loan. It also free floats its currency and the Egyptian pound goes from 30 to the US dollar to 49 to the dollar. Houthi attacks from Yemen on Red Sea shipping affects Egypt as fewer ships transit through the Suez Canal and lower transit fees and revenues that affect the economy, in addition to the economic conditions of the whole region including Israel deteriorating from the Gaza war. There is also pressure on Egypt with the possibility of Gaza refugees crossing the border. Wealthy Gulf neighbors that supported Egypt's finances were reluctant to continue support leading to the IMF loan. UAE ADQ fund asked for currency to float freely if it was to invest $35 billion in northern Egypt. Inflation is at 30% and this WSJ report says even before this weeks fall of the pound the currency had already lost half its value. Interest rates increased to 27% from 21%.  This has increased poverty in Egypt and inflation is reducing standards of living. ...

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WHite children born in 1992 fared worse in income levels than white children born in 1978. The reverse is true for black children- the income gap narrowing for black children born after 1992 and widening for white children born after 1992. In this unusual twist lies some of the angst about social divisions in America in 2024 where income mobility is a major issue. The Biden administration has achieved a lot with bipartisan legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, cancelling student loan debt or reducing it, creating 16 million jobs, bringing supply chain disruption inflation down from 9% to 3%, and yet more action is needed. Inflation in housing that for 25% of apartment renters takes 50% of household income is a challenge. Biden proposed a 5% cap on rent raises, Harris proposed capping rent payment at 30% of household income and  government aid for amounts above 30%. By contrast Trump program promises little to help with housing costs, and economic policy is limited to tax cuts heavily skewed to wealthier households. ...

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Regional public universities, universities with state in their name, such as California State University, Northridge, or Michigan State University, Lansing, are where 60% of Americans come from, Ivies and upper income colleges such as Oberlin or Haverford, Kalamzoo make up 5%. Paul Gastris, Editor in chief of Washington Monthly, points to an important segment of the American population that has been ignored and without the needed funding in the last 3 Reagan decades. College educated from regional public universities such as California or Michigan or Pennsylvania state colleges/universities system are a huge section of the American population comprising 62%. 37% of Americans over 25 years have a college degree, 10% have an associates college degree, and 10% have some college education but no degree, 5% vocational certificate, all adding up to 62%. This is even as the Reagan period ends three decades of underfunding of state college universities  such as the California system setup by a visionary Governor Pat Brown that lifted up economic opportunity in the whole state in 1960. ...

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Global infrastructure needs are expected to go up by 20% to 2.1 trillion dollars annually for the next 10 years compared to the previous ten years, according to the Samsung Economic Research Institute. India's investment in infrastructure will double to 1 trillion dollars in 2012-2017. compared to the prior five year period. Toshiba hopes to increase sales by 20% to $38 billion for nuclear power generation and distribution equipment and railway equipment, by the year ending March 2013. This is 38% of total revenue for Toshiba. Hitachi has set a goal of a 46% increase in sales to $29 billion, or 20% of total revenue for Jan 2011- March 2016. The Japanese Government and a consortium of Japanese companies are working together on deals such as the deal signed with Vietnam in October 2010 for nuclear power. The International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan entity, includes 12 companies and the Japanese government. The consortium was critical to negotiating the Vietnam deal.

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Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy repeats his request that the $125 billion from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the eurozone rescue fund, be sent directly to recapitalize Spanish banks, instead of being sent to the Spanish government. Capital markets did not respond positively to the aid announcement and Spain's 10 year bonds yields were close to 7%, one point higher than before the aid announcement. Rajoy told the other leaders at the G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, that it is necessary "to break the link between risk in the banking sector and the sovereign risk," according to a Spanish official. The European Commission and some EU governments support this, but Germany remains opposed to such a move. Spain paid higher rates on 3.04 billion euros in short term debt financed on June 19, 2012. Spain plans to sell 2 billion euros of two, three and five year bonds on June 21. Part of the problem for investors is the lack of clear accounting and transparency of the total debt of regional governments in Spain, and bad loans at banks, which it is feared could be much larger than the $125 billion in rescue funds from the EFSF. This is a result of the housing and asset bubble in Spain of the last two decades since joining the EU. The $125 billion would take Spanish debt to GDP ratios to 90%, which is lower than Italy's but comes at a time of unemployment at over 25% and a declining GDP, increasing investor uncertainty....

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The US share of Japanese exporting companies went down from 20% to 16% in the 2007-2010 period, while the exports from Japan to China, India, and Brazil have gone up by 25% in the same period. Korean companies like Hyundai and Samsung plunged early into the Indian market. LG and Samsung have a significant share in the electronics and consumer appliance markets in India. By comparison Sony's share is about 5% according to Euromonitor research. Now Japanese compaies are putting a new focus on India. In food products Nissin is expanding aggressively by doubling its noodle making capacity, and making its Ramen brand available in smaller packages costing 10 cents each. The idea is to customize the effort to the unique nature of the Indian market.