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Autoworkers want a raise of 40% from depressed levels with two tiers one for entry level workers set really low during a crisis when auto companies were near or entering bankruptcy. Automobile companies want to use high profits for EV vehicles.  Autoworkers have worked hard through the pandemic and have suffered low wages for a decade, now face a cost of living crisis- the 40% should be seen in the context of starting a depressed level trying to meet costs of living that have surged in 2021-2022. If both conditions are removed the increase might be a modest closer to 10% over a hypothetical higher wage and lower cost of living.

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A sign of how VW has faded in the American market. In 1970 the VW van sold at $20,000. Sales were 570,000 in 1970. Today the 2025 EV Van (ID.Buzz) priced at $60,000 has'nt made much opf a dent in the market with 2025 sales at under 10,000. It can charge up from 10 to 80 percent in 30 minutes in a DC fast charger. Its two tone yellow and white colors were a key part of its attractiveness to buyers, which were not produced on the production line. 

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IMF forecasts for Greece's growth rate are proving too optimistic. The IMF forecast is for zero growth in 2013, and increases of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015. Even in its pessimistic projections the IMF forecasts a 1% downturn in 2013 and growth of 1.3% and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015. The government sector was a large part of the economy. Now that this is shrinking, the export sector which only represents 20% of GDP is too small to generate needed growth. Greece also lacks the competitiveness and the large foreign enterprises that operate in Ireland, making growth less likely. A major problem is also the 40 billion euros Greeks have withdrawn from their banks in recent years. Even the figure of 120% of GDP that is expected in 2020 under the March 2012, 130 billion euro bailout is a very hypothetical figure, having no sound basis. Landon Thomas cites a confidential study the IMF had circulated in February 2012, showing the long term prospect for Greek debt if growth does not materialize because of lack of competitiveness. It would increase the debt to GDP ratio to 178% by 2015, and leave it at the current level of 160% of GDP in 2020. Some experts say the whole debt sustainability analysis makes no sense, with the question being insolvency in the case of Greece, not illiquidity. And requiring a focus to bring debt to manageable level to create prospects for growth. The Wall Street Journal emphasizes this in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012....

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Even with a 2024 2.4% general pay raise and 10% for junior enlisted in US military 25% of servicemen experience food insecurity or need food pantries. This WSJ report looks at the problem. It is simply outrageous that this should happen in 2025.

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Risk is inherent in investing. It just needs to be understood well and grasped. There is a lesson in here that some risk is necessary, depending on one's risk horizon and it does not have to be Argentine bonds. Argentine 100 year bond and US Treasury 30 year bond returns 2017-2025 show quite a surprise.  50% return for 2017-25 on Argentine 100 year bonds vs -10% on US Treasury 30 year bonds. It shows the nature of emerging market risk says the WSJ- political risk. At one point the Argentine bonds showed a 50% loss, yet investors willing to stick through the downturn did better than expected, much better. The recovery did not start till Jan 2024 though, 7 years later. In this case the risk was the pandemic in addition to political risk of Argentine earlier defaults but the recovery took place years after the pandemic declined and with the election of Milieu as president.

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Steinhauser, Walker and Stevis provide an exceptionally good account of the events leading to the March 25, 2013 EU 10 billion euro bailout of Cyprus, with the closing of one bank and the downsizing of another bank. The Cyprus government of president Anastasiades bluffed and lost. That Anastasiades and the Cyprus government would do this in serious negotiations with the finance ministers of Netherlands, Germany, France, the EU, ECB and the IMF at the headquarters in Brussels, in negotiations that ran to midnight on Sunday March 24, 2013, is simply astounding. Charles Dallara representing European bankers tried to do this with German chancellor Merkel at EU headquarters in Brussels during negotiations on Oct. 27, 2011, on an earlier confrontation over bondholder haircuts, bluffed to the last minute and lost. The way Cyprus handled the negotiations surpassed that. Right down to the last hours the Cyprus president waffled- backtracking on earlier agreement to close Cyprus Popular Bank. Calls were made by German finance minister Schauble to Merkel and by French finance minister Muscovici to French president Hollande to give a joint Franco-German response. Finally Anastasiades was told to pack up and leave on Sunday, March 24. The Cyprus government was not defending small depositors as its earlier plan was to tax all deposits at the two largest Cypriot banks 6.875%. Merkel saw this as an error as this would hurt small savers. The final agreement shut down Cyprus Popular Bank but protected insured deposits under 100,000 euros. Another disturbing sign for the ECB and the EU was Cyprus allowing several hundred million dollars to be wired out of the country even though banks were closed and an offical freeze on ouflows existed. A serious mistake in negotiations was when Cyprus finance minister kept EU finance ministers, the IMF and the ECB officials in the dark by not returning calls for 16 hours on Thursday March 25, 2013, while he tried to negotiate a deal in Moscow with Russia's Putin. This destroyed Cyprus's credibility leading to the ECB's warning to cut off liquidity to Cypriot banks which would put the banks into instant bankruptcy. By Friday morning, March 22, 2013, Merkel was angrily briefing her CDU party lawmakers on the negotiations, telling them the Cyprus government and Anastasiades did not get it, that the whole Cyprus model of outsized offshore banking sector- catering mainly to Russian investors - had collapsed. Cyprus unlike any other member of the EU was trying to face down Europe. Negotiations with Greece had been tough and street protests everpresent, yet negotiations went on in a responsible manner and in good faith, something missing here....

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Guiding the debt ceiling talks in a safe way that does not distract in any way from the stronger economy that is taking shape with large investments in every sector, and which people can see and feel in their own lives, is the goal of president Biden. It would be a win for Biden if overall spending can be kept at the level of 2023 for the next two years. How he does this is by maneouvres that concede somewhat in some areas- one example is by reducing spending on the Internal Revenue Service by $10 billion from $80 billion to $70 billion, and shift the $10 billion saved to education and other similar spending. The idea is to mitigate the effects of small cuts by shifting money from other places in the budget spending plan. These maneouvres are designed to keep the overall investment largely intact and deliver results in 2023 and 2024 in a rebuilding of America that the people can see. 

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Climate change is leading to floods in Bengaluru, Chennai and in the state of Andhra Pradesh in recent months. DW.com looks at the situation there. Studies show India' climate vulnerability. Southern regions are most vulnerable according to these studies, yet about 80% of India's population live in districts highly vulnerable to drought, flooding and cyclones. Bonn based Germanwatch says a surge in extreme events is noticeable since 2005 in India, and is triggered primarily by landscape disruptions.  Indian experts say land restoration and rehabilitation is one approach. Another is letting the water flow and redoing irrigation structures to capture rain- linking rivers to ponds, lakes and ditches so that water is free to flow.  Weather experts point out that surface temperature of Arabian sea has risen from 27 degrees Celsius (80 degrees Fahrenheit) to 29 degrees causing more frequent formation of low pressure areas and resulting in heavy rains. This DW.com report looks at weather patterns and extreme events around the world including in Madagascar and Brazil, Greece and British Columbia. ...

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Egypt accepts a $8 billion IMF loan. It also free floats its currency and the Egyptian pound goes from 30 to the US dollar to 49 to the dollar. Houthi attacks from Yemen on Red Sea shipping affects Egypt as fewer ships transit through the Suez Canal and lower transit fees and revenues that affect the economy, in addition to the economic conditions of the whole region including Israel deteriorating from the Gaza war. There is also pressure on Egypt with the possibility of Gaza refugees crossing the border. Wealthy Gulf neighbors that supported Egypt's finances were reluctant to continue support leading to the IMF loan. UAE ADQ fund asked for currency to float freely if it was to invest $35 billion in northern Egypt. Inflation is at 30% and this WSJ report says even before this weeks fall of the pound the currency had already lost half its value. Interest rates increased to 27% from 21%.  This has increased poverty in Egypt and inflation is reducing standards of living. ...

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WHite children born in 1992 fared worse in income levels than white children born in 1978. The reverse is true for black children- the income gap narrowing for black children born after 1992 and widening for white children born after 1992. In this unusual twist lies some of the angst about social divisions in America in 2024 where income mobility is a major issue. The Biden administration has achieved a lot with bipartisan legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, cancelling student loan debt or reducing it, creating 16 million jobs, bringing supply chain disruption inflation down from 9% to 3%, and yet more action is needed. Inflation in housing that for 25% of apartment renters takes 50% of household income is a challenge. Biden proposed a 5% cap on rent raises, Harris proposed capping rent payment at 30% of household income and  government aid for amounts above 30%. By contrast Trump program promises little to help with housing costs, and economic policy is limited to tax cuts heavily skewed to wealthier households. ...

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Regional public universities, universities with state in their name, such as California State University, Northridge, or Michigan State University, Lansing, are where 60% of Americans come from, Ivies and upper income colleges such as Oberlin or Haverford, Kalamzoo make up 5%. Paul Gastris, Editor in chief of Washington Monthly, points to an important segment of the American population that has been ignored and without the needed funding in the last 3 Reagan decades. College educated from regional public universities such as California or Michigan or Pennsylvania state colleges/universities system are a huge section of the American population comprising 62%. 37% of Americans over 25 years have a college degree, 10% have an associates college degree, and 10% have some college education but no degree, 5% vocational certificate, all adding up to 62%. This is even as the Reagan period ends three decades of underfunding of state college universities  such as the California system setup by a visionary Governor Pat Brown that lifted up economic opportunity in the whole state in 1960. ...

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Global infrastructure needs are expected to go up by 20% to 2.1 trillion dollars annually for the next 10 years compared to the previous ten years, according to the Samsung Economic Research Institute. India's investment in infrastructure will double to 1 trillion dollars in 2012-2017. compared to the prior five year period. Toshiba hopes to increase sales by 20% to $38 billion for nuclear power generation and distribution equipment and railway equipment, by the year ending March 2013. This is 38% of total revenue for Toshiba. Hitachi has set a goal of a 46% increase in sales to $29 billion, or 20% of total revenue for Jan 2011- March 2016. The Japanese Government and a consortium of Japanese companies are working together on deals such as the deal signed with Vietnam in October 2010 for nuclear power. The International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan entity, includes 12 companies and the Japanese government. The consortium was critical to negotiating the Vietnam deal.

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Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy repeats his request that the $125 billion from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the eurozone rescue fund, be sent directly to recapitalize Spanish banks, instead of being sent to the Spanish government. Capital markets did not respond positively to the aid announcement and Spain's 10 year bonds yields were close to 7%, one point higher than before the aid announcement. Rajoy told the other leaders at the G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, that it is necessary "to break the link between risk in the banking sector and the sovereign risk," according to a Spanish official. The European Commission and some EU governments support this, but Germany remains opposed to such a move. Spain paid higher rates on 3.04 billion euros in short term debt financed on June 19, 2012. Spain plans to sell 2 billion euros of two, three and five year bonds on June 21. Part of the problem for investors is the lack of clear accounting and transparency of the total debt of regional governments in Spain, and bad loans at banks, which it is feared could be much larger than the $125 billion in rescue funds from the EFSF. This is a result of the housing and asset bubble in Spain of the last two decades since joining the EU. The $125 billion would take Spanish debt to GDP ratios to 90%, which is lower than Italy's but comes at a time of unemployment at over 25% and a declining GDP, increasing investor uncertainty....

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The US share of Japanese exporting companies went down from 20% to 16% in the 2007-2010 period, while the exports from Japan to China, India, and Brazil have gone up by 25% in the same period. Korean companies like Hyundai and Samsung plunged early into the Indian market. LG and Samsung have a significant share in the electronics and consumer appliance markets in India. By comparison Sony's share is about 5% according to Euromonitor research. Now Japanese compaies are putting a new focus on India. In food products Nissin is expanding aggressively by doubling its noodle making capacity, and making its Ramen brand available in smaller packages costing 10 cents each. The idea is to customize the effort to the unique nature of the Indian market.

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Questions about the sanity of having a nuclear plant at Indian Point, only 35 miles from midtown Manhattan, in a metropolitan region with 20 million people. A 50 mile circle from the plant includes almost all of New York City, parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. Indian Point's evacuation plans cover a 10 mile circle with about 300,000 people, twenty miles out the distance cited for Fukushima, is about a million people.

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According to Eurostat Spain's total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP was 32.1%, lower than the eurozone average, which is above 40%. The underground economy in Spain is estimated to be about 20-25% of GDP. Spain's tax agency has relied on computerized records to track tax revenue receipts. The focus is now shifting to in person visits and tracking of businesses in the underground economy to make certain these businesses are paying taxes.

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Emmanuel Macron faces a challenging situation in  the 2022 second round. He badly needs left wing supporters of Mr. Melenchon who came with one percentage point of right wing Marie Le Pen. Macron had expressed right wing sentiments about immigration and terrorism even more than Le Pen during the year leading upto this election. That this has alienated some left wing supporters is evident in a nIpsos poll for FR24 that shows 30% or about a third of the 22% of the voters that supported former Socialist candidate Jean Luc-Melenchon are likely to vote for Le Pen, who has campaigned on the issue of cost of living and softened her image and position on the European Union. 34% of Melenchon's supporters said they will support Macron and 36% said they are undecided. It is this undecided vote that could make a difference. Add to this the 25% of the voters who did not vote at all and the election depends on who can convince this segment. To reach these voters is Macron's main concern in the 2 weeks before the second round of the election on April 24. Macron says he will campaign hard-"from dawn to dusk, in direct contact with voters." He will have to offer something that convinces working class voters who some see he has humiliated during his first term.  ...

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After the coronavirus pandemic the whole picture of life in retirement and aging is expected, says this report in WSJ.  Retirement homes are not viewed as a good place and about 30% of these homes in the U.S. are expected to close with financial difficulties. Most people will now work longer and continue to live at home. Telemedicine and other technology will help make this possible. Experts say most people will age and stay at home and financial incentives will be given for this to happen.  Aging will also be seen differently because of the resilience of older people during the coronavirus. People will be seen as productive and living a full life well into their seventies and eighties. Community services will expand. Government services including under Medicaid will consider that it is less costly to stay at home than in long term care facilities and provide financial coverage for caregiver or homecare aides help at home. Many new services and technology assisted services are being planned with a focus on older people and living productive lives, as America and Europe other countries shift their focus to this group. After coronavirus people are also looking to spend their years in a productive way, to do things that really matter and add meaning to their lives.. How to spend the next 10-20 years in the most meaningful way. ...

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Will a war in Ukraine affect the world's food supplies? Yes here is how. It would affect mainly the countries of North Africa that depend on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia. Egypt is the largest importer. Many of these countries depend on imports to keep their people fed. The cost of shipping it is less from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and Russia than if this wheat came all the way from America or Australia.  Much of Ukraine's wheat grows in the Kharkiv Oblast region in eastern Ukraine close to the border with Russia. With Russia putting 100,000 troops and prepared for an invasion of Ukraine both sides could be affected. Of the approximately 200 million metric tons of exports of wheat each year Russia and Ukraine make up about 29% or about 65 million metric tons. About two thirds of this from Russia and one third from Ukraine. Prices of wheat are already at an high of $310 a metric ton. Experts say this could double in the case of war or go up 20% even in a minor incursion. Western sanctions would affect Russian exports of wheat on top of the effects of war and devastated agriculture in Ukraine. When there are wars there are ripple effects- in this case all the way to North Africa.  ...

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A recovery in Intel's business of making microprocessors for PC's. Computer demand from corporate customers, medium and small businesses is increasing. Intel showed a 40% increase in profit for the 2nd quarter of 2014. Demand for tablets is softening and buyers are using large smartphones instead of the smaller tablets. Intel CEO Krzanich, says the installed base of PC's that is about 4 years old is about 600 million strong, and is refreshing for these business customers. Intel is also shipping chips for tablets with plans to ship chips for 40 million tablets in 2014. The Internet of Things group, making chips for non-computer devices, showed an increase of 24% in revenue. So far Intel shares are up 20% in the first half of 2014. Intel plans to add $20 billion to its stock buyback plan and plans to repurchase about $4 billion of its shares in the 3rd quarter of 2014.

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Roosevelt say experts was a great crisis manager but not great when it comes to policies to create jobs. His achievements were stabilizing the banking system with deposit insurance, government investment in banks, and restrictions on banking practices, creation of the SEC, and fireside chats that steadied the national mood. Unemployment when he took office in 1933 was 25% from 3% in 1929, and industrial production had dropped 40% since 1929. So FDR took office when a lot of the damage had already been done, compared to that Obama takes office earlier in this downturn. And Roosevelt did not fully grasp John Maynard Keynes's advice when he visited the White House in 1934. Keynes complained to Labor Secretary Ms. Perkins that he had thought the President was more literate economically speaking, while the President felt Keynes had a rigmarole of figures he did not understand. Roosevelt said of Keynes: "He must be a mathematician rather than a political economist." It took some time for government spending to take hold. Throughout the 1930's government spending remained around 20% as a share of the economy. Today its 35%. And the average unemployment stayed at stubborn 17% on average for the decade of the 1930's. It was not till the 1940's that things changed. Total government spending as a share of the economy reached 52% in 1942 with the onset of the war, and peaked at 70% in 1944 when the unemployment rate dropped to 1%. One lesson experts say is that its easier to stem unemployment and job losses by action earlier in the downward spiral through vigorous action by government. In retrospect because industrial production fell by 40% during the 1930's experts say Roosevelt was actually timid in his response. U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke is a student of this period and draws a similiar lesson from that period for vigorous action early in the crisis....

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Kerala state of 35 million people who speak the language Malayalam, is one of the rare places today that has only 4 deaths from coronavirus, 524 cases confirmed and no community transmission. Here the Guardian looks at the reasons why. The Health minister KK Shailaja started very early on January 23, with a meeting of her rapid response team when the virus was still in China.  She setup a control room and instructed Kerala's 14 districts to do this on Jan. 24. When the first case arrived on Jan. 27 on a plane from Wuhan, Kerala had already adopted the WHO  protocol of test, trace, isolate and support. These passengers were checked for temperature, tested and quarantined. With some at a nearby hospital and others in home isolation. This is all the more amazing considering that Kerala is a state in southern India on the west coast that has a large number of people living and working overseas. Many are in the Gulf countries and the arrival of these refugees could have triggered a second outbreak. This was prevented by careful testing, and contact tracing of clusters.  When one group was evasive and concealed information from an airport surveillance team -arriving from Venice, Italy,  in late Feb- a case was detected back to them.  Contact tracers tracked down all of the hundreds whom they had been in contact with and quarantined them.  By 23 March all flights to 4 Kerala airports from overseas were stopped, including Cochin and Trivandrum. On March 25 India went into lockdown.  Some of the achievements in Kerala include quarantining 170,000 people early. with strict surveillance, which is now down to 21,000. Accomodating and feeding 150,000 migrant workers from other states, before returning them on charter trains to their home areas. A big reason for the success is the high literacy rate in the state. A big emphasis on education and healthcare is a part of the Kerala model. Shailaja is a secondary school teacher, and Health minister. From the days since independence of India in 1947 the state has a strong socialist tradition of taking care of the basics- health, education and public services. It also generates a part of its GDP with income from workers who are overseas.  Another reason for the success in dealing with coronavirus is experience. The state had a virus epidemic called Nipah in 2018 which has become the story for a movie called Virus in Malayalam. There is decentralized public health system in the state and people value their health care facilities, understand and trust the health care authorites. There are hospitals at every level of administration and 10 medical colleges. But trust and education, experience tackling the virus before, are key. Kerala is showing that poor countries can deal effectively with the virus, and create a better life by adopting the right model of creating good societies that value education, healthcare services, better economic structures and distribution of wealth, and  a degree of trust and responsibility found in a state that values public spiritedness. ...