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Improvements in birth rate and more immigrants in Germany are making the demographic picture look better in Germany. About 13 million people are expected to reach retirement age in just a few years, according to Prof Enzo Weber, Institute of Employment Research. This means 13 million new pensioners. Birthrate today is about 1.4 children per woman. At this level of birthrate and even a low rate of immigration of 100,000 per year Germany's population of 83 million today would decline over time. Between 1990 and 2008 more people left Germany than came in with a net outflow. Some level of immigration would be the only way to keep the level of people in the workforce of 43 million today to become stable in the future. This would be needed to support the increasing number of pensioners. Yet the general aging of the population is expected to continue. And a high level of immigration in too short a time such as from the Syrian refugee crisis creates other tensions in the social fabric of society. Germany's very homogenous society faces a challenge that goes beyond the politics of the refugee crisis of today. Too many immigrants in too short a time is not the solution, immigration has become too politicized in today's context, good and early integration of immigrants through language and culture training needs to be established. Prof. Weber points out that the influx of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe has helped the labor market, and there is no reason that the labor market could not dry up with the number of people retiring soon. Tackling that will involve making family and career life choices easier and enabling flexible work-life choices, increasing retirement age, and some level of healthy immigration. A demographic summit will be held on March 16th in Berlin to look at the problem. ...

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Questions about the every 5 years 20th Party Congress of the CCP or Chinese Communist Party, and the 2300 representatives attending from all parts of China are answered in this report in The Guardian.  Xi Jinping is expected to get a third term. To outsiders in US and Europe it is all about power in China, to insiders in China it is about China making it through the 100 years since the 1901 revolution and the tumult, the chaos of the first 100 years, and now a period of modernization and growing incomes,  the need to create jobs, tackle climate change, ensure a good future for the Chinese people. 2300 party members representing millions of party members in China attend the gathering. New appointments and retirements take place at this Congress. Of this there are 200 elite members of the Central Committee with voting rights. This central committee is responsible for electing a 25 member Politburo, of which the seven most senior persons are appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee. Xi Jinping is the General Secretary, the most senior position in this hierarchy. Age related retirements are at 68 years and a new Politburo standing committee is announced at each Congress. After the Bo Xilai effort to take power and take China in a new and unknown direction, and the gradual loss of the party's respect from corruption and abuses of power by local officials, Xi Jinping sensed problems in the future and conducted a anti-corruption campaign. Most of the system of government set up during the Deng and Jiang Zemin years after 1980 remains in place with Jinping calling for a revival of China, the next stage of modernization, under the banner of the CCP. The result of the anti-corruption campaign and a third term assumed by Xi including lifting of a term limit for heading the CCP, gives Xi Jinping an opportunity to shape the future for China as Deng did after 1980. Jinping in the manner of Deng sees the CCP as the organization that can continue the modernization and growth of China. The model set by Deng and Zemin of local autonomy for economy and centralized overall direction continues under Jinping who is General Secretary since 2012. China has made rapid growth during the period 2000-2022, but faces challenges of reorienting its economy away from dependence on a tight economic export oriented relationship with the US and EU, as supply chains are being shifted after the pandemic. This means more unemployment and need for careful economic planning and investment to create jobs in other sectors, and to meet the challenges of unequal distribution of wealth in China after hypergrowth that hurt China in some ways, and in the climate change effects of use of coal other fossil fuels. As focus of interest is on Jinping externally, within China it is these three challenges that must be uppermost in the minds of the 20th Congress members. Much of this stems from the tumult of the century that began with the 1901 revolution through Japanese invasion and upheavals in the 60's and 70's, leading to the rare period of stability and growth in the last 20 years. Jinping like Deng and Zemin has personal memories of the anguish of this period and the tumult, the chaos of the 20th century for China, and the yearning for stability with modernization.   ...

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New home sales in the USA rise 4.7% in February 2009 from the previous month, reversing the steady decline in new home sales from August of last year. This puts them at a 337,000 annual rate and this is sharply down from this time last year when sales were in the 500,000-600,000 range. A lot of the activity in housing sales is in foreclosure sales especially in California. Foreclosure sales in California in February 2009 were 58% of total existing home sales compared to 33% in February 2008 according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego, cited in Bloomberg News. The drop in the median home price for a existing single family detached home was sharp from $418,000 in February 2008 to $247,000 in February 2009, a drop of 41%. As aresult sales of existing family homes in California went up by 83% in February from the previous year as reported by the California Association of Realtors, shrinking inventories to about a 6 month supply if the current sales pace holds from the 15 month supply existing in 2008. The government's $8000 tax credit for purchases of homes, the falling prices and lower mortgage rates, are helping to lower inventories of new homes. The number for the US has fallen to 330,000 new homes, as inventories are dropping and new construction is slowing. The housing picture depends also on the number of jobs that are lost during the rest of 2009 and into 2010. And this will play abig part in determining whether housing recovers. The current job losses of 600,000 a month are grounds for caution....

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David Segal takes a detailed look inside Apple's retail stores in the U.S. and talks with employees at different stores to find out what its like working as an hourly employee at an Apple store. World wide Apple's 327 global stores sold $16 billion in Apple products. Per employee the sales are about $473,000, but at an hourly rate of about $12 the average employee makes about $25,000 per year. After recent wage raises this could be up to about $36,000. The National Retail Federation says electronics stores have about an average of $206,000 in sales per employee. Contrary to what most people may think most of Apple's employees are not engineers and other professionals, about 30,000 of the 43,000 Apple employees in the U.S. work as hourly employees in the retail stores. Most are young people in the early 20's, single, with health insurance provided by Apple not costing as much for that age group. There is no career path and most leave after a couple of years. Because of the Apple mystique and the drive to create new user friendly products there are many young people looking for this kind of temporary work, especially now with high unemployment. ...

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Matsushita Electric is streamlining operations after the acquisition of Sanyo Electric and Panasonic Electric Works in 2011. Restructuring is also taking place to compete with South Korean and Chinese manufacturers, and to focus on emerging markets. The restructuring will mean 17,000 job cuts over the next 2 years. The yen has appreciated 25% against the dollar since 2008, and the Korean won has depreciated by 35% during this period, making it tougher for Japanese manufacturers to compete.

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Bank of England governor Mervyn King's speech at the Economc Club of New York in Dec. 2012. About incoming governor Mark Carney, King says "I think he'll do a great job and they won't miss me at all." He says one way or another the U.S. will find a way to avoid the fiscal cliff. He sees a tension between short and long term policy goals such as recapitalizing banks and having governments reduce their debt.

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The political deadlock between U.S. Congress and the President and its impact on efforts to reduce the unemployment rate. The failure of the Obama administration and Congress to tackle the jobs issue, leaving too much of the burden of action on the Federal Reserve.

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Bernie Sanders points out in this NYT op-ed the idea that Donald Trump could benefit from the same discontent among working class voters that helped the Leave campaign is a wake up call for the Democratic Party. He calls for global trade and a global economy that works for working class, middle class Americans.  Sanders is pushing for a Democratic Party that embraces the concerns of working class Americans, that understands the impact of factory closings and loss of jobs, of economic uncertainty, of declining incomes and shrinking opportunities.

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Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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President Obama proposes changes in taxes to fund programs to aid students such as free 2 years of community college, aid for student loans, and financial help for middle class families. Senate Majority Leader McConnell says the proposals to raise income taxes for high income Americans with $320 billion in new revenues over 10 years, reduced prospects for changes in the tax system. He said the Obama proposals were designed " to excite the base but not designed to pass." Obama says "the shadow of crisis has passed," and calls for "middle class economics," and improving incomes for anyone making the effort. The call comes as inequality widened during the long recession and some of the Obama administration's policies such as on homeowner foreclosure, and lack of focus on unemployment during the first term, may have actually worsened inequality. The call also comes late in the second term in Jan 2015- with presidential elections in 2016- after the Republicans gain control of both Houses of Congress, which is why Republicans dismiss this as mere political talking points for the base....

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Philip Alston, UN expert on extreme poverty and professor at New York University School of Law, says most of the progress on poverty that the UN agencies  and elites talk about is based on one country China. In the rest of the world, in Latin America, in Africa, and in other countries in Asia the situation is not any better than it was in 1990. About half of the world's population 3.4 billion people live on less than $5.50 a day, and this is not much changed since 1990. The improvements in China could also mean that the situation has worsened in other parts of the world. The pandemic has taken the lid off the situation in Latin America with Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and other places there showing extreme weakness.  Alston studied this as UN's representative for looking at extreme poverty 2014-2020. He is clear in describing what happened. The World Bank he says set $1.90 a day for poverty line, artificially low and what will not pay for housing or food even. He calls it "scandalously unambitious as a benchmark" what would pay for "a mere miserable subsistence." By using this he says a devastating effect is being allowed to happen as more of the investment is drawn into a pro-growth narrative which pushes allocation of capital in the direction where it profits short term speculative capital and profits rather than the long term investments in health, education and public services that are vital for any country. The improvements in China have also come at the expense of communities in Europe and the U.S. as industries were being shifted with their jobs overseas since 1990, first imperceptibly and then in waves after 2000, which leaves millions exposed to poverty and social decay for the first time in history in the advanced countries. It is an unhealthy and destabilizing situation. Alston's other points are that the so called progress narrative has been used to drown out the appalling effects of policies that misallocate capital away from the vast numbers of people. And in doing this he says it has entirely upended or turned upside down the social contract with the people. From Carl Sandburg's "The People Yes" in the 1950's after the tragedies of war we have come to "The People No." Nothing could be more reprehensible than capital being allocated for dog walking apps and other speculative investments by investment funds pooling hundreds of billions of dollars when basic sanitation services, health care investments are neglected in countries like Brazil, and smaller towns and communities are being systematically uprooted for jobs and social services over three decades in advanced countries in parts of Europe and the U.S.   ...

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Workers ended a 3 month strike at Caterpillar's Joliet, Illinois plant, essentially giving in to reduced healthcare and pension benefits and wage freezes for older workers. Under the deal workers hired before May 2005 receive no hourly pay increase, workers hired after that date get a one time 3% pay increase with future pay increases decided by Caterpillar management. Hourly pay at the plant ranges from $13 to $28. About 25% of the older workers are eligible to retire. A $7.8 million fund to supplement incomes of laid off workers will now be used for retirement bonuses. Caterpillar persuaded workers to ratify the contract by increasing the bonus for ratifying to $3100 per worker from $1000. During the strike Caterpillar continued operations by using managers and temporary workers and using 100 workers who crossed picket lines.

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Asked about it yesterday January 16 DJT tells the press outside the White House after a meeting announcing his Great Healthcare Plan, it is a good thing that Canada has signed a trade deal with China. It reflects the new view not clearly understood or told in the press what US trade policy is about. US trade policy in 2026 is about bringing investment and jobs back to the US to rebuild communities and towns across 51 states- once destroyed by the foolish trade policies of the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama 3 destructive policy decades. Supplementing this with the investment favorable policy of instant depreciation for investments in plant and equipment in the Big Beautiful Bill of 2025. Using tariffs to level the playing field and ensure fairness in business practices by industries and nations towards America after over 3 decades all else has failed. All the time protecting Rural America, and communities and towns across the US devastated by outshoring. Using Tariffs to make certain that drug and migrant trafficking, and hostile unelected governments in the western Hemisphere cannot take place with direct and  indirect intervention in the western hemisphere by foreign powers. To do this with the Monroe Doctrine Corollary set by Teddy Rooosevelt in his Annual Message to Congress of 1905- "A great free people owes it to itself and to all mankind not to sink into helplessness before the powers of evil." Under such a policy Canada can pursue trade deals with China as the US has done. The clear rationale for the US policy is nowhere evident in the press today, how trade and domestic policy and foreign policy converge to protect all Americans, even though this was something that was pursued under the Biden administration with mistakes made in handing the Border management to Mayorkas and Harris incompetence. In the use of Tariffs doing this in such a way that US economic interest, investments, capital and stock markets are protected by carving out areas of exemptions in the policy. This has given the US an highly advantageous use of Tariff policy in ways not reflected in the press version of Tariffs. As TR pointed out, as Lincoln pointed out over a century ago, the interests of both Labor and of Capital are both legitimate and vital for the Nation. It is time to see this as one whole and not separate to rebuild America.   ...

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David Malpass is the choice of the Trump administration to head the World Bank. He has worked with Latin American countries at the State Department, was the Treasury official responsible for the World Bank in the Reagan administration, and worked on Argentine currency, China trade matters in the Trump administration.

Malpass negotiated a $13 billion replenishment for the World Bank in 2017, with U.S. share of $1.2 billion. This capped the bank's lending at $25 billion.

Last year the World Bank provided China with $60.5 billion in loans for 400 projects, which this WSJ editorial says is loans China does not need with its $3.07 trillion in foreign reserves. This editorial is critical of the current World Bank head Dr. Kim for taking a job with a World Bank partner the private equity fund GIP.

The World Bank has played a significant role in development for South Asia and China in the early years after World War II.

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De Aenile describes the volatility in stock markets after the Brexit vote. Earnings growth is slow and expectations are declining. Indexes of emerging markets are trading at 10 times earnings, say experts. The S&P 500 ended the quarter at 19 times earnings, compared to historical average of 15, according to this report. Uncertainty remains high in Europe and the U.S., and monetary policy is stuck in a low interest rate environment.

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Krugman cites Apple as the largest company in the U.S. in terms of its valuation but having only 43,000 employees in the U.S. He asks the question- why does Apple get most of its manufacturing done in China? Apple indirectly employs about 700,000 people at its suppliers, with most of them in China. Companies contribute to a country's economy by creating successful clusters of research, innovation and manufacturing. In Apple's case, to the great detriment of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing part is being done entirely overseas. If cost is the only factor for this, then the question remains how German manufacturing has managed to surivive and grow with wages that are higher than in the U.S.

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Boeing reaches a tentative agreement with the International Association of Machinists & Aerospace Workers in Nov. 2011. Under the agreement Boeing will build the 737 MAX, a retooled version, at a union plant in Renton, Washington. In exchange the union will not oppose Boeing's use of a new nonunion plant in South Carolina for assembling some 787 Dreamliners. The agreement when approved by union vote would extend the contract for 4 years till 2016. Advantages to Boeing lie in labor peace during a period when Boeing plans to increase production by about one third, over 2012-2014, to meet aircraft orders of $332 billion. Existing 737 production has been moved up to 35 a month, going up to 42 a month, accelerating the pace significantly, making it important for both sides to avoid labor discord. The Max first delivery is planned for 2017. In the current unemployment crisis there was considerable incentive on both sides to resolve the issue quickly, after the union had raised the issue with the National Labor Relations Board. It provides Boeing with flexibility in assembling some of the 787's in S. Carolina along with assurance for union commitment to productivity, and gives the union assurances that Boeing will continue to maintain significant maufacturing presence in the Washington area, a win-win for both sides. The NLRB appeal will be dropped by the union....

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If the trade war escalates to the point at which president Trump imposes tariffs on all Chinese goods imported into the U.S. on Jan. 1, 2019, China could retaliate with its own tariffs and this might affect Boeing aircraft as well. The results would be to tip the economies of both countries into a recession, and affect Mr. Trump's best chances for reelection in 2020. This can happen as Mr. Trump has a great deal of confidence in his negotiating style. The negotiations so far have shown China misread the U.S. and Mr. Trump leading to a strong U.S. response.  There is also the importance of not losing face, Mr. Xi's domestic audience, Chinese industry that sees a fundamental change from state subsidies model as eroding its position and offering resistance, patriotic sentiment making it harder to meet U.S. demands. Fundamentally for Mr. Trump it is about U.S. trade deficit and changing the huge trade surplus of almost $1 trillion that China enjoys each year with the U.S. which has been and is no longer sustainable. Mr. Trump also has the backing of Republicans on this issue and Democrats cannot afford to be soft on this issue as it involves American workers and jobs are at stake. Both sides could be in for a protracted negotiation as Mr. Trump feels it is right for Americans to expect fair trade and technology transfer that respects American concerns. In addition the U.S. could sense that it exports less to China, is less dependent on exports than China, and as the party that is hurt by unfair practices insist on its position. After Japan agreed to U.S. demands that it reverse a huge trade surplus in the seventies in which Mr. Lighthizer was the negotiator its growth declined sharply and is economy stagnated. China may sense inside that this could happen to its economy. Today Lighthizer the U.S. negotiator and Trade Representative could also push hard because of he was able to convince Japan to change its course. ...

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The Markit/HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index for China declined to 49.6 in Jan 2014 from 50.5 in Dec. 2013. A score below 50 shows contraction. China's GDP growth declined to 7.7% in the 4th quarter of 2013.