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China reduces US share of exports to 15% from 18% -yet with Vietnam made Chinese goods added in it is 21%. 15.8 million job loss for China from US fentanyl tariffs 2025 from one estimate. Chinese businesses are already feeling this, says WSJ. Exports represent 13% of China's GDP and China had redoubled its export effort after the property bubble burst. There are 2 drags on growth property crash and exports tariffs. China has less room for stimulus in 2025 and the government is focusing on bottom line thinking to prepare for hard times. Already companies are cutting shifts and laying off 10-30% of workers in garment, toys and other basic industries. President Xi is preparing for a long struggle reminiscent of how Mao led China to fight the US forces under Gen. McArthur in the 1950's Korean War, says the WSJ. In the past the state subsidy system worked to take huge share of new industries such as semiconductors, smartphones, solar, electric cars. This will be harder now with less money available to invest and drive out competition, and with the US and EU making their own products boosting their industrial and manufacturing base. ...

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Stock buyback strategies change as U.S. companies support falling stock price during down cycles and pull back as prices rise higher.

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Reince Preibus, former Rebublican National Committee chairman, has a law practice in Kenosha, Wisconsin. He is the new chief of staff for president Trump. Not much is said in this report on Preibus about his personal background, except that he has a close relationship with Speaker Paul Ryan, and that he initially gave Trump a 40 minute lecture to withdraw from the presidential race after the controversial tape involving remarks made by Trump was released. He was instrumental in winning the election for Trump by bringing in the party machinery to support Trump during the last 2 weeks of the election, and at the time in the closing days of the election considered the prospect of being Trump's chief of staff on the chance that Trump would win. He now models his behaviour with Trump to that of senior people who manage Trump's resort properties, says this report. The report also points out that president Obama had 4 persons in the chief of staff position, so that it is possible there could be a change at some point. ...

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“Getting gas from America is always a good thing.” Alaska's governor Dunleavy tells Japanese and South Korean, Taiwanese investors. Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba says the LNG from Alaska is "wonderful for us." It takes just 7 days to get this LNG to South Korea or Japan.  Mike Dunleavy's plan, called Alaska LNG, is for a 800-mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay that would feed gas to a to be built liquefied natural gas terminal at Nikiski near Anchorage. What was once just a hope as investors pulled out is now a reality with DJT telling Dunleavy, "lets get it done, let's not just talk about it." Note that something similar is likely to happen for car investments by Japanese and South Korean companies. Already Hyundia Kia has announced a $21 billion investment. For Alaska LNG pipeline South Korea has said this has "infinite possibilities for growth." US Navy is rebuilding for protecting the Asia-Pacific, Japan and South Korea know the importance of the actions of the new Republican administration for Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region, and tariffs can be a time to invest more in American manufacturing and show restraint in pricing. ...

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The S.E.C. and the Justice Department end two investigations into the actions of Goldman Sachs during the financial crisis.

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Zaraska says a vegetarian diet or one that includes vegetarian diet in meals is a good idea to reduce the risk of heart disease, obesity, diabetes and other medical problems. Be sure to add zinc, iron and calcium, Vitamin B12 to the diet if you are older she points out, to compensate for the change. About 2.5 million Americans over the age of 55 are vegetarian according to a 2012 Harris poll done for the Vegetarian Resource Group. There is a common perception of vegetarianism as purely vegetable type foods. However vegetarianism in India is practiced with the inclusion of all dairy products- milk, yogurt, and buttermilk. Not only are they included, they play a significant role in the diet. Also included and playing a large role in the diet are lentils and beans which provide a significant source of protein. When the idea of vegetarianism is broadened to a more normal vegetarianism as practiced in countries like India and includes dairy, lentils and beans, the diet is able to provide most of the nutrients needed. By including this kind of vegetarian food as an integral part of the diet and reducing meat is another way the health needs of Americans facing a high rate of obesity and other medical problems can be met. If insurance companies were to give incentives for increased consumption of these vegetarian foods and lowered consumption of meat, and the public was made aware of its benefits through advertising, the cost of health care in the U.S. could be brought down....

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Informed sources say Portugal will require 90 billion euros ($129 billion) in a bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Of this 10 billion euros will be needed in June 2011. Germany's finance minister Schauble, said the austerity program that is part of the bailout will be put together in the next 2-3 weeks with the help of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The bailout will probably be structured in several phases coming before and after June 5 elections in Portugal. The current Socrates administration and a new administration will share responsibility in negotiations for the deal. The opposition Social Democrats who are front runners supported by 39% of the voters and the CDS party with 7%, both support the current government's bailout request. A Social Democrats-CDS coalition is likely after the June elections. The leader of the Social Democrats, Pedro Coelho, is involved in the negotiations. The crisis came to this point after Portuguese banks-which were among the principal buyers of government debt- decided to stop buying additional governmet debt. This meant the government with low cash reserves had little chance of meeting the 4.9 billion euros in debt repayments in June, after a 4.2 billion euro debt repayment in April. The Portuguese government had preferred a bridge loan from the EU but the EU declined this request, insisting on austerity measures. A recent effort by the Socrates government to get an austerity package was defeated in Parliament, leading to Socrates' resignation. ...

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The recent effort to eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood clinics in the U.S. because some of the money goes to abortions has run into a cloud of misinformation. In reality only 3% of the funding goes to abortions. Title X funds that help support these clinics cannot be used for abortion care at any time. Medicaid funds going to the clinics in 17 states can be used to reimburse abortion providers only if the life of the mother is endangered. The clinics see 5.2 million low income and uninsured women who need tests for infections, breast exams, pap smears, preventive services and screenings, contraception services. By reducing low income women's access to such health services through defunding the clinics would only increase the number of unwanted pregnancies and abortions. Planned Parenthood centers provides contraception to about 2.5 million patients each year and educates women about birth control. By burdening the U.S. healthcare system- adding most of the 5.2 million who access these clinics -with problems ranging from cancer to other serious health issues when they could have been detected by tests at an early stage and treated earlier or prevented altogether, would also add to the burden of healthcare costs. In addition the 800 Planned Parenthood Clinics in the U.S screen 3 million patients each year for other problems such as blood pressure, diabetes, smoking and obesity related issues, also help treat these problems at an earlier stage, which is essential if costs to be brought under control. ...

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Allan Blinder gives a spirited account of what he sees in the Paul Ryan Republican deficit reduction plan. He says that with the voucher plan retirees would fall further and further behind the increasing cost of health insurance. With no explicit cost containment proposals it assumes that some kind of miracle will occur for costs to be kept in check- especially as Republicans want to repeal the cost containment proposals in the President's healthcare plan. He asks whether someone is saying, that we have to destroy Medicare so it can be saved. Ryan woulld also turn Medicaid into a block grant, then underfund it and let the states figure it out when they are in a budget squeeze. Blinder points to the estimates of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, that show about two-thirds of Ryan's budget cuts would come from programs that serve low and moderate income Americans. And to make matters worse the steep spending cuts go to finance tax cuts that largely benefit the wealthy. He calls this Robin Hood operating in reverse, and coming on top of 30 plus years of rising inequality. David Stockman makes a similiar point on the editorial pages of the New York Times, April 24, 2011; also adding the point that the middle class will have to pay higher taxes for the deficit to be addressed, something President Obama's plan fails to do. Blinder says that the Bowles-Simpson and Rivlin -Domenici proposals attack the deficit reduction problem in a better way, that asks something from all classes and interests. ...

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President Goodluck Jonathan as "Mr. Clean" aroused many of the same hopes now aroused by the election of Buhari as president of Nigeria. Under Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria's foreign reserves declined from $50 billion to $33 billion, and there is $1 billion in the sovereign wealth fund. About $20 billion in pilfering of state funds was reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria, but no action was taken by Jonathan. Indians may pride themselves on a better performance, yet prime minister Singh of India, seen as "Mr. Clean," allowed auctioning of telecom licenses in the second term, that had to be cancelled because of corruption. Throughout emerging markets not just in oil producing countries, poverty remains entrenched, because funds that should go into infrastructure and services are misused, which creates a disincentive for foreign investment, further adding to the problems in these countries. India and Nigeria are the two fastest growing countries in the planet, and the unspoken fear is that the demographic dividend with so many young people will be wasted by corrupt and inefficient management of the economy and resources of the two countries. The time lost in the last years of the Singh administration and the four years of the Jonathan administration will never be regained, the hopes of millions of young people are dashed again and again, and the goodwill of Europe and the U.S. eager to participate with the latest technologies in the development of the two countries, as they have done in China, is wasted....

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This article in the Economist Report on India focusses on politics, and the implementation of a state devolution of powers and finances. This is the big idea referred to by the prime minister's Economic Advisor, Arvind Subramanium. The Modi administration is providing the direction at the federal level for a development push at the state level. The states will now get 42% of federal tax revenus and with state revenues this increases to 62% of total revenues, giving the states leverage to compete for talent, capital, and investment for economic growth. This element of competition will be strong to attract different industries and foreign investment similiar to the experience of Gujarat and now pushed at all levels of government. It also introduces the idea of "competitive federalism" as India is a country with states at various stages of development from Gujarat to Punjab and Bihar. The new NITI Aayog replaces the old command economy Planning Commission from the Congress administrations since 1947, and supports "competitive federalism" as a think tank that provides advice and help to the centre and states. Rising aspirations in India helps the Modi government with voters who are incresingly urban and better educated, looking for jobs. The election in Delhi suggests voters will always be open to new ideas to fight corruption and bring better delivery of public services, and wins by parties offering positive change for improvement will always be a part of India's democracy, introducing competition in politics for who can do a better job at the regional level. ...

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On one hand the issue of the $165 million in bonuses going out to employees in the 370 person Financial Products Group, and oth the other the need to wind up the complex derivative contracts that are causing these huge losses at AIG. But are such huge payouts needed for these employees to do their job? Isn't this aprofessional responsibility of these employees? And AIG's retention-payment program was disclosed a year ago and the amount of the bonuses $400 million, says the Washington Post, had been widely reported. The company is set to pay according to the WPost $600 million in retention awards to about 4700 people throughout the global insurance units. WHat happens to the $600 million, as no opinion has been voiced on these upcoming payments. The whole idea of retention payment raises another question. Will the skills of these employees be needed in a long drawn out economic downturn spread over several years or longer. And will thefailure of such things as derivatives, and the tighter regulation, mean that they will play amuch smaller role in the future. And even in the insurance units will these skills draw a premium in a market where the supply of new talent is larger than the job market ? One expert has sugggested that even if some of them left, there would be younger people to replace them who might bring an even better set of qualifications, with amix of skills, caution and prudence. So is there something self-interested and spurious in the retention argument itself and shouldn't this bluff be called? ...

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The moves by the Obama administration and the national feeling and mood, its views as taken in poll of 998 adults by CBS News/New York Times. On taxing those above $250,000 income levels at higher rates- 74% of respondents support it. On populist sentiment - 71% say Obama cares more about ordinary Americans than for large corporations. On the vast expansion of spending and programs 48% prefer smaller government and fewer services and 41% favor bigger government and more services. On spending to stimulate the economy at the risk of higher deficits- 45% support this. On the budget proposal- 56% support it, but 79% of Democrats like the priorities, only 27% of Republicans like them On helping banks recover- 29% supported this in Feb, 47% support this now. In the freedom to use his own judgement at a time when Republicans have rejected almost everything he does- by three to one people say they trust Obama to make better decisions about the economy than Congressional Republicans. This includes one quarter of Republicans, which is significant in giving President Obama the room to use his judgement of what is best and take aggressive action where necessary. This aggressive action may be necessary if taking over some failed or insolvent banks is considered to be the best option, and President Obama's advisors like Mr Axelrod must be taking notes from this poll by CBS News/New York Times. On security, on safety- by tqo to one people say they trust Obama to keep the nation safe. ...

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The impact of the bank losses will be felt in a process of deleveraging that will exagerate and worsen the credit crunch for years. As banks on the way up in a positive profits cycle can make more money only by leveraging with the leveraging factor may be about 10 times, for an investment bank much higher about 30 times, and on the way down as profits shrink the deleveraging cycle works just as sharply. For every dollar lost as the deleveraging cycle moves into reverse a bank has to contract lending by $10, and for every dollar lost an investment bank has to contract lending by $20-$30 depending on how leveraged it was. A recent study with Anil Kashyap, University of Chicago as one of the authors says the lending contraction frm the mortgage related losses alone would lead to a $1 trillion credit contraction for the USA economy and expects a big shrinking of banks. As all banks contract and some banks go under private equity and hedge funds are likely to take on some of the role of investment banks but they are not regulated so the situation in terms of regulatory oversight would be just as risky as before. Treasury has a list of 100 banks in danger and FDIC has a list of 90 such banks. Merrill Lynch's $48 billion in collateralized debt obligations underwritten in 2007 are almost all on the verge of default or already in default and it will sell off assets like Bloomberg and Black Rock to raise capital....

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Medtronic pursues tax avoidance strategies as it merges with Covidien, which is based in Ireland. Ireland's corporate tax rate is 12.5% compared to 35% in the U.S. Medronic had $14 billion in cash in 2014, much of it overseas. The merger helps Medtronic use some of the overseas cash to finance the deal, and will help Medtronic distribute half of free cash flow to shareholders.

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At a time of online retailing one retailer, Irish retailer Primark in Europe, has stuck to analog and retailing with bargain clothing in stores. It has avoided the online trend since its founding in 1969. It has about $10 billion in sales in Europe and plans to open 26 stores in the US.  Clothing for men and women and children that costs $10-$20 can be found in these stores. It is useful at a time when Europe and the US are facing a cost of living crisis. And when Bangladesh clothing factories are suffering from a one third drop in sales bringing the country's foreign exchange dollar reserves crisis levels of $26 billion.

It is Dublin based and owned by ABF Foods a British company, that is in turn owned by a Weston Canada family. Like Inditex based in Galicia it is based in a smaller European location. It has one third the sales of Inditex's Zara and half of Sweden's H&M. 

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As a new architectural aspect takes shape in New Delhi the Indian Express describes what cam before it and over which the new layer takes place. The shift of the capital from Calcutta to New Delhi in 1911 with Curzon's partition of Bengal leading to much unrest in the Bengal region. Lutyens was the architect of that colonial Delhi laid out for a mere period of 30 years when it became obsolete with the Quit India Movement of 1941. The capital has remained in New Delhi, only to be redone in 2021 under prime minister Modi to reflect Indian national unity and extending from the new War Memorial to the new Parliament Building along a new path that honors a new nation built on the remains of the old. In the context of 2047 the British period begins to appear a mere interruption from 1850's to 1950's for a civilization that goes back to the Buddha at Sarnath and Kusinara about two thousand five hundred years back, forty generations back.

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Young people are the major source of transmission of coronavirus in the US with school sports as a major cause. Michigan, New York, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, makeup 42% of cases on April 11. Adults ages 20 to 39 are affected the most in Michigan. With cases for children under 19 quadrupling from a month ago. 301 reported school outbreaks in Michigan alone. A big problem is that the spread of the variant B.1.1.7  from the UK started in clusters earlier in February. It now has spread to the general population. India has seen a surge in the past 5 days and public health officials are learning from this experience in Europe and the US. The focus  should be on micro containment zones, prime minister Modi told state chief ministers in a virtual meeting on April 10, with screening, testing, tracking, and that health officials should not let higher numbers affect their persistent effort to screen, test and track as with the unceasing effort the results will come. ...

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One way to tackle procrastination that works is to clear all distractions, focus on the positive effects of getting tasks perceived as difficult done first, and enabling this by breaking up a difficult perceived task into a couple of smaller tasks. 

Other things to do to get work done is to set specific times such as 9 to 11 am for perceived difficult work, simple rewards are set such as having a cup of coffee afterwards or taking a walk after two hours of work, time cleared by distractions pushed out of the way. People usually find out that it wasn't that bad anyway to tackle that perceived difficult work, and it helps to have tackled it and the couple of other tasks that are sitting on your desk remaining to be done. Pretty soon your list clears up, increasing satisfaction, rewarding yourself along the way,  and you have a new burst of motivation to tackle more.

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US secretary of state Anthony Blinken meets Indian foreign minister Jaishankar, and prime minister Modi in New Delhi. India and the US are working together on how to make vaccine supplies accessible and affordable in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. To promote the vaccination drive in India the US announced an additional $25 million to the $200 million announced earlier, during Anthony Blinken's visit to New Delhi. Post pandemic economic recovery was also a subject of discussions. Blinken thanked Jaishankar for collaborative discussion on many points, including security in the Indo-Pacific region. He went on to say that "the US welcomes India's emergence as a leading global power." Blinken also said that the future in the 21st century will be written in the Indo-Pacific region.  Blinken thanked Jaishankar for the collaborative discussions on many topics, including trade and economy, and how to promote greater bilateral investments to deepen commercial ties. ...

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As this report in WSJ shows underreporting of coronavirus cases is a serious problem for Africa, and the figures from Africa's CDC, part of the African Union, do not show the magnitude of the problem. It shows that health workers in places from Yaounde in Cameroon to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, to cities in Somalia, are reporting a situation quite different from what the CDC shows, with hotspots emerging in some places with little in the way of resources.

Only 1 million tests have been done and half are in SOuth Africa and Ghana. WIthout the testing it is hard to know how many cases there are. Capetown area in South Africa is emerging as a hotspot and hospitals are expected to be overwhelmed within weeks. Officially Tanzania a country with 56 million has 509 cases and 21 deaths, yet this contrasts with reports from health experts. Cameroon and South Sudan are also possible emerging hotspots in addition to Tanzania says this report in WSJ.

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Discussion on the need for a new framework in which debt of developing countries can be restructured with relief from private creditors and China. This is particularly needed for countries in Africa. Finance ministers from G-20 countries have come up with a new process for restructuring debt of world's poorest countries. These countries owe billions of dollars to China's state owned lenders and western fund managers who bought dollar denominated bonds of African countries. Zambia is the latest case of a country defaulting on its debt during the pandemic. Zambia missed a $42.5 million interest payment on some of its $3 billion in dollar denominated bonds. Zambia is one of Africa's largest copper producers and is now in default. Debts are now 100% of gross domestic product. Zambia's default follows default on debt of Ecuador and Argentina, which restructured their debts, after a steep sell off of emerging market bonds. Lebanon defaulted in March of this year. ...

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After a second round of price increases P&G's last price increase of 10% leads to first quarter revenues up 4% on sales volume declines of 3% for the first quarter of 2023. The company making Gillette razors, Charmin toilet paper and Tide detergent for household supplies has shown the persistence of inflation as companies increase prices to pass on the increase in price of raw materials. Some of this money will go to buy back stock- P&G plans to buy back $8 billion of its own stock. Companies such as P&G are countering criticism of price increases by saying they offer premium products or use the term "irresistable superiority" says this report in NYT. This leads to "profit price spiral" and adds to "wage price spiral" effects. A executive board member in eurozone says half of the price increases in EU can be attributed for the last quarter of 2023 to company profits.