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Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

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Huawei's 4Afrika smartphone is priced at $150. GSM Association forecast is for most people in S. Africa to be using smartphones by 2017, increasing from 20% in 2012. In Nigeria about 30% of the people are forecast to be using smartphones by 2017. About a quarter of the 1 billion people in Africa are in the middle class according to the World Bank.

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From Lindau, Germany. A meeting of Nobel Prize winning economists and other economists on a pituresque island in southern Germany. The discussions focus on the widening gap between rich and poor as globalization takes place and the need for governments to redirect some of the wealth to the poorer sections of society. The discussions were on broad themes rather than solutions with the main thrust being that free markets are not always fair and economists should help governments to make them fairer.

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S. Koreans do not like the Wal-Mart style large warehouse type of retail stores as a place to shop in. What they want is the Korean outdoor market comfortably tucked inside. A better comparison to Korea's own E-Mart owned by Shinsegae is Target stores in the U.S., where there is a a nicer spacious layout, lower shelves. Then you have to add the feeling of a Korean outdoor market with vendors in the form of girls with polo shirts showing the brands they represent calling out to customers, above the sound of butchers calling out prices of meat and fish. A senior executive at Shinsaegae's E-Mart says S. Koreans hate the warehouse format. As a result Wal-Mart and Carrefour had to withdraw from the Korean market. E-Mart's founder, Lee Myung Hee, is the daughter of the Samsung Group's founder Le Byung-chul. The company is now run by her son, Mr. Chung, who is combining professional mangement with ownership management to run E-Mart. The original E-Mart was a small operation acquired by the Samsung founder in 1963, and separated from Samsung under Ms. Lee in 1991. The first E-Mart opened in 1993. In 1999 Samsung took a 11% interest in Samsung-Tesco discount chain retail stores, a joint venture with Tesco Corp. of the UK. Shinsaegae expanded quickly after the 1998 Korean financial crisis, by acquiring land at attractive prices. With the failure of the Wal-Mart stores in S. Korea, Shinsaegae acquired the Wal-Mart operation for $872 million in 2008. ...

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Societe General's Jerome Kerviel worked at a Delta trading desk in the investment banking operation. Kweku Adaboli, 31, a UBS trader, worked at a Delta One trading desk specialized in exchange-traded funds and other securities positions. He is charged with two counts of false accounting and one count of fraud. Delta is a term in the banking industry for how a bank can customize a security for a client, and following this closely replicate another transaction that acts to mitigate the risk. The first transaction is a "derivative" trade, which is basically a bet on the direction of a group of stocks or other securities. Jerome Kerviel was accused of trying to hide $7.2 billion in losses and was sentenced to three years in prison. The Delta One trading desks can generate $1 billion in annual revenue for banks and are used by Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley U.S. At the same time risk is increasing with unpredictability and higher volatility in the financial markets in 2011. Another feature of the trader problems at UBS and Societe Generale is the relative youth and lack of experience of the traders, and that risk management systems allow traders with insignificant experience to make such large transactions. Other questions about how much risk a bank should be allowed to take, and about ring fencing the investment banking units of each bank, are relevant. Swiss banking regulators were working to ringfence the investment banking units of UBS and other Swiss banks after earlier problems at Swiss banks in the global financial crisis of 2008. Under the proposed regulation by Swiss regulators UBS investment banking unit would be headquartered in another country and hold its own capital, and be subject to local regulators. ...

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Fitch ratings firm changed Turkey's credit rating for long term foreign currency debt to investment grade by upgrading it from double B plus to triple B minus. Turkey still has junk status from Moody's and Standard & Poor's ratings firms. At the same time Fitch says the situation in Turkey is volatile, saying a financial shock and recession are likely "at some point." Moody's described Turkey in October 2012 as having "substantial external vulnerabilities," and large short term financing needs. S&P's credit rating for Turkey is two notches below investment grade and Finansbank AS in Istanbul chief economist, Inan Demir, says it does not look like the other ratings firms support Fitch's asessment.

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Cotton prices were up significantly in 2010. Prices of other commodities are rising in early 2011.

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In comparison to industrial companies digital companies such as Google and Apple have more room to find gaps in the U.S. tax system which was designed for the industrial period. Apple paid a tax rate of 9.8% in 2011 on its global profits in 2011 of $34.2 billion, a total of $3.3 billion. Wal-Mart for instance paid a tax rate of 24%, on its booked profits of $24.4 billion, a total of $5.9 billion. The issue is significant because of the large U.S. deficit and spending cuts by local and state governments for essential services, especially in California, where Apple is located. Apple is able to avoid state taxes on some of its profits by locating an office in Reno, Nevada. Nevada has zero corporate taxes, California's corporate tax rate is 8.84%. In the current fiscal year Apple is expected to earn $45.6 billion which if taxed at the rates companies paid in the 1950's - 30% in the 1950's compared to 6.6% in 2009 for corporate tax receipts according to a New York Times report- would enable the state of California to avoids some of the sharp cuts in funding to community colleges such as De Anza College only minutes away from Apple, Google and H-P. De Anza College's president says he simply cannot understand this, how the whole psychology of corporations and the public itself has changed over the years, to where a college where one of the Apple co-founders Steve Wozniak got his education in 1969-74, is now struggling to survive with funding cuts. The California college system of the 1950's and 1960's was funded by other companies tax dollars creating the educational resources which helped create todays companies- one generations responsibilities transferred to another generation that has failed to understand what this is about....

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A former prime minister of Poland for 7 years, Donald Tusk, becomes the president of the European Council in 2014.

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According to U.S. Senate investigators Apple recorded $26 billion, 65% of its income worldwide for 2012, in Ireland. Ireland Operations International is based in County Cork, Ireland. Ireland has about 4% of Apple's worldwide workforce. Laws in the European Union allow digital companies such as Apple and Google and other large companies to pay little in taxes through such arrangements. Apple CEO Cook says Apple is not using any tax gimmicks. Apple negotiated a low 2% tax rate with the Irish government. The Senate hearings in the U.S. and a meeting of EU leaders has raised concern about this practice being allowed at a time when much needed infrastructure investments are being shelved in the U.S. and Europe because of budget deficits. Spending cuts in education and in R&D hurt long term economic growth. Government statistics show the average Ireland tax rate on gross income of companies in 2010 was 6%. Ireland has a low corporate tax rate for companies of 12.5% which it retained after EU pressures to change the rate when the Irish bailout was provided. Ireland has 4000 Apple workers, and 600 American companies employ 100,000 Irish workers....