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Economists predict sluggish economic growth in 2013.

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Standard & Poor's lowered the long-term debt ratings of France's BNP Paribas bank from double-A to double-A minus. S&P said the BNP Paribas bank was "more vulnerable to adverse conditions than had been previously anticipated."

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The large number of part time workers reduces the pressures of wage growth on inflation for a considerable period, in the view of analysts. The upward pressure from medical care costs, housing and import prices is also expected to subside in the rest of 2014.

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The loan-to-deposit ratios on average for European banks of over 110% are much higher than the average in the U.S. of about 78%, according to analysts. The loan-to-deposit ratios for Spanish and Italian banks are much higher, with 160% for Bankia. If Spain leaves the eurozone and places a moratorium on loan payments the Greek loans on the books of France's banks in Greece would be in default, especially Credit Agricole. The French banks would suffer an estimated loss of 20 billion euros, and German banks 4.5 billion euros. German banks have been more aggressive in reducing their loan protfolios at risk than French banks during 2010-2012, hence their smaller exposure.

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Paul Davies says the leadership at Deutsche Bank is short sighted and cannot afford more slip ups or missteps following the U.S. New York Fed's examination. The examination revealed serious shortcomings in regulatory reporting and failure to correct them. As U.S. operations represent one fourth of its balance sheet this raises issues for the bank's overall financial position. Deutsche Bank has committed additional $1 billion in systems investment and staff to tackle this. Added problems he mentions are that Deutsche Bank lobbied against the Fed's proposal for foreign bank capital requirements even though it remains undercapitalized. The bank's leverage ratio at 3.4% is low and Davies says changes at the top are needed if further missteps occur.

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Lahart says adjusting for inflation the DJIA average in early March 2013 would be about 12,900 instead of 14,254, much less than it was in Oct 9, 2007 peak. If dividends are reinvested the Dow would be at 16,600. With inflation and dividends taken together the Dow would be around 15,000. Lahart does not cite his source. Browning in a separate piece says the DJIA adjusted for dividends, inflation and taxes, according to Bespoke Investment calculations is still below the 2000 level in 1994 dollars, and provides a different view.

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What changed asks the Economist between the summer when the stimulus was petering out and analysts sniffed deflation for 2011, and today with the euphoria for stock markets and estimates of 4% growth for 2011? Much of the reason for the change is a second round of quantitiative easing for $600 billon announced by the Fed- buying bonds with newly created money to push down rates and stimulate lending. And the December 2010 compromise for across the board extension of the Bush tax cuts. But even though this improves the prospects for 2011, the situation after that is still in the medium term as treacherous as ever, even more so, says the Economist. High interest rates and shaky business confidence can be fixed with strong stimulus, but households and banks have to work off the excessive debt taken on in the last decade. And this deveraging has years to go. So expect more difficult patches where investor euphoria quickly turns to gloom. One other aspect of the current situation is worrisome. The bipartisan deal for the Bush tax cuts was not real bipartisanship, as each side agreed to the others huge giveaways. Real bipartisanship must mean more painful decisions in spending and taxes. The US government's failure to sort out its finances will continue to cast a shadow over the future of the economy....

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A study by Sentier Research from Census data shows people in the U.S. age 55-64 years make 10% less in June 2012 compared to June 2009. Every demographic has suffered income losses in this period. Median household income declined by 4.8% in these three years. Using December 2007 as astarting point shows a decline of 7.2%- $50,964 vs. $54,916. Blacks, those with some education like a high school diploma but no degree, the older Americans, and younger Americans were hit hard. Long term unemployment was the cause of the decline among older Americans. Even college graduates suffered a decline of 5.9% from $88,570 to $83,378.

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According to researchers at AARP and the Economic Policy Institute women over 50 years have a harder time than men of the same age in finding good jobs since the 2008 financial crisis. Older women who were laid off have a very hard time finding employment and steady jobs, as this report by Patricia Cohen in the NYT shows. Age, lack of internet skills, shifting networks, caregiving responsibilities and time off taken to care for children, all have worked against older women over 50 years. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis shows that compared to 2006-2007 before the financial crisis hit when about a quarter of the unemployed for women over 50 years were unemployed over 6 months, by 2012-2013 the jobless women for more than 6 months had gone up to about half of the unemployed women in this age group.

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Alan Meltzer points out that Milton Friedman never supported increasing inflation to reduce the unemployment rate. The exception is when there is deflation. As an honorary advisor to the Bank of Japan, Meltzer, says he advised Japan to buy long-term bonds in the 1990's to increase money growth until deflation ended. Meltzer says there is no sign of deflation now, and the Fed's claim that there is a risk of deflation is because it uses the CPI (consumer price index) as a measure of inflation, and the CPI shows substantially less inflation than other indicators such as the Personal consumption expenditure deflator. The CPI he says gives double the weight to housing prices according to Meltzer

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This Reagon Memo from 1980 was written by his advisors George Shultz, Milton Friedman, Paul McCracken and others before his first inauguration in 1980. It provides the new president with prudent advice on policy and methods to deal with soaring inflation and a stagnant economy. Its relevance today lies in the emphasis on charting out a long term plan for growth by encouraging private investment in the economy and providing a sure framework for the private sector to generate expansion.

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The U.S. Labor Department report shows 156,000 jobs added in September 2016. The unemployment rate increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%, because of the increase in the total pool of workers, The labor force increased by 3 million workers over the first 9 months of 2016. The labor force participation rate was up by half a percentage point to 62.9% for the year 2016, as it drew more workers who were earlier discouraged to look for work. Wages grew by 2.6% over the year.