LyrArc Article Gist
This article in the Guardian points out that Britain did not just wake up one morning and find itself in a strange predicament of leaving the European Union. This was happening over two decades as leaders appealed to immigration fears on the right to win voters and the leaders of the Labor party failed to protect their traditional working class base. Voter turnout declined and it points out that Cameron of the Conservative party won the election in 2015 with only 24 percent of the eligible voters, as the hold of the Conservatives and Labor parties declined with each successive election on their voter base as they desperately tried to shore up support by appealing to voters fears even as they literally abandoned their traditional voter base and appeared elitist to less educated, poor workers. The economic crisis and austerity policies created a new voter group of disaffected voters who turned to the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP). The referendum offered by Cameron in 2015 on the EU against the advice of coalition partner Vince Cable and the Liberal Party, without an understanding of the situation in the country after years of austerity policies was only one of a long series of developments that unfolded over two decades unraveling years of work building a better Britain following 1945. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The first Democratic debate for the presidential election of 2016 gives Hillary Clinton a huge boost. Democratic voters find her to be more convincing in the debate than Sanders. Without Biden in the race a Oct 2015 ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Clinton draws 64 percent support among Democrats, and Sanders 25 percent, with O'Malley, Webb and Chafee less than 2%. Even on questions such as who "is closer to you" on the issues, who "understands the problems of people like you," Clinton beats Sanders by 53-36 percent and 51-37 percent in the poll. On honesty she is about even with Sanders. The careful low key approach getting a feel for the voters and their concerns appears to be paying off for Hillary Clinton where it really counts. The picture of Clinton in the media accounts is not affecting Democratic voters.

LyrArc Article Gist
Democratic Party U.S. presidential candidate Bernie Sanders tells a Georgetown University audience that Muslim nations should bear the biggest share of the burden of fighting Islamic State. He cites reports Qatar was spending $200 billion to host the Soccer World Cup in 2022 but providing little to bear the cost of fighting extremism in the Muslim world. Sanders says his focus in running is not on pursuing "reckless adventures abroad, but to rebuild America's strength at home." This contrasted with remarks by Hillary Clinton in New York the same day calling for the U.S. to lead the fight to defeat the the Islamic State terror network after Paris attacks in Nov. 2015, and putting forward a position that contrasts with that of the Obama administration.

LyrArc Article Gist
The 25% auto imports tariff goes into effect April 2nd 2025. How much will it increase prices in the US for automobiles? The average is about 10%, say some experts cited in WSJ. This includes price increases on higher priced brands such as German brands BMW's and Audis, Mercedes Benz, and VW cars made in Mexico to ship into the US. It also includes European car makers including Stellantis that make cars in Europe and Mexico to ship into the US which could lose market share to American car makers who make most of their cars in the US. Ford makes 80%, GM 60%.  Overall US international Trade Commission in 2024 looked at the 25% US tariff in a study and showed 5% increase in auto prices in the US. President Trump's call to GM and Ford asking for restraint in pricing may be coupled with the government returning some of the money in tariffs revenue pool to American or foreign manufacturers investing more to make more cars in the US including to Hyundai which announced a $21 billion investment. More such investment decisions are expected from Japanese automakers. For example Subaru has capacity for 450,000 cars in Lafayette Indiana plant and sells 650,000 cars in the US. One would expect it to increase the capacity of the plant or add a new plant in the US. The Japanese government and Japanese business will have additional incentives to invest in the US because of the US support for Japan in the Asia-Pacific, US openness to give trade benefits to Japan in the post war period, incentive to make the Republican DJT plan for tariffs to work as a united Japan-US effort. This would include restraint on pricing.  Toyota is in much better financial shape than VW and has a large market share in the US which it will work protect with pricing restraint and more US investment. Only VW and German luxury car makers BMW, Mercedes may not cooperate. Yet VW sells only 300,000 cars in the US compared to 2.3 million for Toyota. BMW and Mercedes sell luxury cars where buyers could absorb the additional luxury brand cost without impacting inflation overall. Some of VW's car sales would be absorbed by American and other automakers considering VW was losing market share and nearly exiting the US market. before this. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the federal tax rate for the top 1% is 34% in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office, because president Obama let the high end Bush tax cuts to expire. It is the number to remember says Krugman- 34. In 2008 the figure was 28.2. Under Hillary Clinton the average tax rate for the top 1% would go up by 3.4 percentage points, according to the Tax Policy Center. Some of this would help pay for the tution plan to provide access to the middle class to public universities. Under populist Trump, Krugman points to the elimination of the inheritance tax and tax rates going down substantially, and no such programs to promote the upward mobility that everyone is talking about, and no way to pay for a big infrastructure building effort for growth and jobs- upward mobility that is the focus of every candidate's election campaign including Sanders, Trump in appealing to older white working class families, Clinton, Ryan, Bush, and others in both parties.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Chris Cillizza of CNN shows here that back home in Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins hears from people saying again and again that they support her stand against the Republican health care bill. The rural and elderly are hurt most by this bill and Cillizza says Maine has a lot of these people.  He also cites the opposition of Republican Senator Rand Paul who doesn't like the other costly things tagged onto this bill, and wants a clean bill free of "billion dollar ornaments."

LyrArc Article Gist
A Washington Post Univision poll in Feb. 2016 shows 8 of 10 Hispanic voters with a negative impression of Donald Trump, and 7 of these 10 having a "very unfavorable" impression of him. The poll shows Trump's standing with Hispanic voters deteriorating, with a Univision survey in summer 2015 showing 7 in 10 with a negative view, and 6 in 10 "very unfavorable." This is in line with Trump's increasing anti-immigration rhetoric and calls for a wall at the border paid for by Mexico, upping the anti-immigrant rhetoric in 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
Freeman contrasts the speeches given by Obama and Trump, one in Cairo after becoming president, and the other in Riyadh. Freeman says Obama did not give enough credit to American leadership and progress on women's rights, and was not critical of Iran during a period in which sectarian strife has led to the situation in Syria and Iraq. 

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the NYT by Halbfinger and Kershner shows a Israel that is divided in its views about prime minister Netanyahu. In early 2018 with the police report on the investigation into Mr. Netanyahu on campaign finances, half of Israelis support Netanyahu, with the other half thinking that Netanyahu should resign. Mr. Netanyahu has dismissed the investigation as full of holes like Swiss cheese. His supporters see it as part of a left wing conspiracy including state prosecutors and police. Supporters of Netanyahu see him as having improved Israel's security in its region, people who oppose him see him as being too divisive, using divisive rhetoric to improve his own position.  Younger voters in particular have a distaste for divisive politics practiced under Netanyahu, which extends to the supporters of Israel in America, and the policies leading to delaying of the peace project.  That peace project is also seen as part of the nation's mission to seek peace with its immediate neighbors, an unfinished project for Israel as a nation. After many years in office Netanyahu's party lacks the dynamic vision needed and it now appears only to see remaining in office as its goal, according to this NYT report. This is happening at a time when a larger centrist constituency is developing in Israel as most of the moderates are outside government. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Senator Mitch McConnell, the U.S. Senate Majority leader, and Speaker Ryan, achieved a win in the U.S. Congress which is expected to set a new trend of bipartisan cooperation, as the House passed the bill in Dec. 2015 for $1.1 trillion spending with a vote of 316 to 113, and the Senate with vote of 65 to 33. The persuasion on the Republican side was based on giving Speaker Ryan a strong hand in negotiations with the White House in 2016. Ryan secured a lifting of the oil export ban for the Republican side in return for flexibility in spending. Ryan deftly sent the issue of Puerto Rico having access to bankruptcy laws to the committe chairmen to come up with a plan in March to get the needed votes. Democrats had pushed for aid to Puerto Rico. Also included in the bill that passed is giving more voice to emerging market countries China and India in the running of the IMF.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ on a Gallup study with 87,000 interviews points to Trump supporters being affected more by racial isolation and cultural anxiety, health prospect anxiety,  than merely by being working class or in lower income groups affected by the shift in manufacturing jobs overseas. The report confirms previous observations that these Trump supporters are more likely to be whites without bachelors degrees. The information does'nt show that they face abnormally high degree of economic distress as those who have lost jobs in this recession, as they are shown to be less likely to be unemployed, more likely to be self-employed. The Gallup study does not show areas more adversely impacted by trade competition to have higher support for Trump. This is a critical finding.  An interesting finding is that Trump supporters are more likely to live in areas with higher mortality rates and poorer health outcomes, higher obesity rates, and lower rates of intergenerational mobility. This combines with living in much higher rates of being surrounded by whites, whiter and more racially isolated. The finding is that they have high cultural and economic anxiety from not finding their well being and prospects for children meet expectations. This may also explain the tendency not to be able to reason out possible outcomes based on policies of each candidate, less openness and more inward looking behaviours.   ...