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After 2 years of the pandemic's devastating effects on health, governments around the world decided to protect ordinary people from the effects of higher prices for staples and food with the increase in inflation. This WSJ report takes a detailed look at different countries and how they after coping with the effects on total debt and debt servicing needs of moves such as subsidies and tax cuts. The situation is exacerbated by the Ukraine war which affects wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia, and the high oil prices as a result of the war. The effects shown by country are- China- consumers are protected from high oil prices by regulated retail gasoline prices. As oil prices keep going up state owned refineries will bear a disproportionate share of the burden of high prices. India- The government has set aside $40 billion in aid as subsidies for oil and fertilizer. This will support farmers and consumers for fiscal year to March 2023. It will make it harder to cut the budget deficit from 6.9% of GDP to 6.4%. Pakistan - A subsidy of $1.5 billion was given for diesel, gasoline and electricity by the Imran Khan government. This did not have IMF approval and talks are taking place on the IMF program between the government and IMF for it to continue. Rampant inflation has led to reduced popularity of the Imran Khan government. Argentina- A new program to refinance $44 billion in debt with IMF assistance is being affected by the subsidies for oil and electricity. About 800,000 tons of grain are being diverted to the domestic market from exports. Agricultural producers such as Argentina have better protection from higher food prices. In Argentina 40% of the people are living below poverty and the country has 50% inflation.  Malaysia and Indonesia- Both countries are exporters of commodities and higher prices could provide additional revenues to meet higher import prices, says the WSJ. Egypt- higher prices for wheat imported from Ukraine and Russia where Egypt gets 70% of its wheat needs have increased cost of subsidies by $1 billion. Kenya- Fuel subsidy costs will increase by $500 million over 2 years. Europe- In France 400 million euros relief package and in Spain 500 million euros relief package for energy price increases. In Germany cash payments to taxpayers, heavily discounted transportation tickets, and price caps on gasoline and diesel.   ...

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German born Joerg Reinhardt, the new chairman of Novartis, is overseeing the plan to revitalize and strengthen its R&D operations. Reinhardt who has a doctorate in pharmaceutical sciences, spent 30 years working for Novartis and its predecessor company Sandoz, before leaving for Bayer in 2010 and returning to Novartis. He is leading the effort by setting up a board subcommittee setup to oversee the research and development effort. The new subcommittee's task is to review the R&D strategy and organization. The subcommittee will advise the board on scientific trends and activities critical to R&D success. Novartis has increased R&D budget to 5.6% in 2013, which will remain at that level in 2014. The pharmaceutical industry by contrast decreased spending by 2.2% in 2013 compared to the high point in 2011, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Research activities will be concentrated in 4 cities- Shanghai, Basel, Boston and La Jolla, California, to take advantage of infrastructure already in place in these places. A review of Novartis's portfolio of business begun in 2013 will be completed in 2014. Reinhardt says acquisitions of upto $5 billion could be made to build scale for promising smaller units. The review also includes Novartis's one third stake in Roche built up since 2001, and conversations Reinhardt is having with Roche's new chairman Christopher Franz....

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Spiegel Online's interview with Emmanuel Macron, on the TGV 8434 train from Bordeaux to Paris. He is joined by Mrs. Macron. Macron says he is aware that he does not have a bloc of core support like Ms. Le Pen, yet he says this means he will try that much harder for voters on the right and the left. He says their is no political renewal in the political class in France and that it remains closed. He says particular attention must be paid to rural France outside big cities like Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille and Paris, where people have had a different encounter with globalization. On the European Union he sees the need to revitalize it by having a closer union focussed on countries that are interested in this. He sees the need for a joint finance minister and permanent head of Euro Group. This might be a smaller EU without countries such as Britain, and others who are not interested in a closer union. He does not agree with the idea that any member state of the EU can stop other member states from proceeding. Macron does not believe in moving to the right as in the Dutch election because he says people are "not idiots" and in France this has not worked for Nicholas Sarkozy, which has some truth to it as authenticity (and humility) matters to French voters. A personal approach worked for Fillon early on till the scandal over payments he received. Macron brings to this personal approach and relative youthfulness, his sense that he must appeal to all segments, rural and urban, educated and less educated, and at the same time be true to core values such as preserving the European Union, and authenticity in terms of views on Algeria. He also says he is aware he faces risks but that this is something he believes in deeply.   Macron has not hesitated to express his views on topics such as Algeria, calling it a crime against humanity, and later elaborating on what he meant. Macron says his movement En Marche is different in style and manner from the closed nature of French politics. He believes in transparency, term limits, and removing conflicts of interest in French politics, as a way to make a fresh start. The first round of voting is on April 23, 2017, followed by a second round of voting between two candidates.  ...

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Lessons learned from the earlier wave of Turkish migrants to Germany in the early postwar period, and how Germany is using the lessons learned to integrate the new wave of Arab migrants in 2015 from the beginning. One part of this effort is the openness of educational institutions throughout Germany to offer free language classes and easier access to schools and universities. The media is cooperating in the effort by creating a positive perception of the new migrants to help integration into German society. Many challenges remain, yet German leaders on the centre right and centre left have shown remarkable courage and willingness to tackle the situation with forward looking initiative.

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Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, did economic and monetary research at the University of Siegen, Germany, where he received his doctorate. He joined the economics faculty at the University of Bonn in 1994. This is unlike others in central banking who rose through finance ministries or national central banks. He was made head of the Bundesbank in 2004. He resigned recently after expressing his dissent when the ECB made the decision to buy the government bonds of Greece and other financially troubled eurozone countries. In his view the ECB should stick to its mandate for setting monetary policy and not get involved in fiscal policy. He returned to academia and will teach central banking at the University of Chicago till May 2012. He brings an unconventional approach by his willingness to talk to the media and express his dissent over issues that affect Europe and the global financial system. The same informal style he adopted in teaching and engaging in discussion at the University of Bonn. See the interview in the Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2011....

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Chancellor Merkel calls on China to respect Hong Kong citizen's right to free speech during premier Li Keqiang's visit to Berlin in Oct. 2014.

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Charlie Hebdo weekly is part of a long tradition of satirical magazines that poke fun at leaders and organized religion including Catholicism and Islam. This dates back to the days of the French Revolution. The magazine received many threats from Islamists. In January 2015 attacks by 3 young terrorists killed 12 journalists, a policeman and a police woman.

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France with about 6 million Muslims and a history of colonial rule in North African Arab countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and other countries) faces a challenge of integrating Muslims into French society. Germany with a large population of Turkish origin also faces a similiar challenge. The attack on the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo for poking fun at Islam, in a manner similiar to its satirical work on Catholicism, leads to the death of 12 journalists, a policeman and a policewoman. Erlanger and Bennhold describe the reaction of people in France. Peter Neumann, director of the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King's College , London, says about anti-immigrant sentiment increasing in Europe to the point where it is uncoupling working class families from the elites in Europe and reaching into the mainstream of society.

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Yascha Mounk says Germany is not as committed to the West as it was in the days of chancellor Adenauer. Policies pursued by Gerhard Schroeder distancing Germany from the U.S. were also carried on under chancellor Merkel.

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Krugman points out that the inflation adjusted wages of non-supervisory workers in the retail field in America has declined by 30% since 1973. He says there are no adverse effects on unemployment because workers in retail are not competing with workers in other countries as happens in manufacturing. They are also some of the lowest paid workers to begin with, and the numbers are not small. One estimate is that here are 30 million workers who would benefit from an increase in the minimum wage from the current level of $7.25 to $10.10. State by state comparisons provide proof of this as no evidence of losses in employment are to be seen when one state has raised the minimum wage and another neighboring state has not. Germany is facing a similiar problem of low paid temporary workers and a new coalition government is planning an increase in the minimum wage in 2014 as a response to increasing inequality and disparity in incomes developing in the last two decades.

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France's unemployment rate for youth 15-24 is over 25%. France's president Hollande has a plan to get companies to hire young workers on a permanent contract. The "generation contract" gives small business 4000 euros a year for three years to hire a young person on a permanent contract a the same time committing to keep an employee over 57 years in age. Companies with over 300 employees are required to set targets for hiring younger workers and keeping older workers or face sanctions. The program would cost France $1 billion a year and the government estimate is to generate 500,000 jobs in 5 years. A think tank OFCE sees this as generating about 100,000 jobs, because many companies would have hired anyway. The German approach is focussed on state sponsored apprenticeships and vocational training, which some French companies says is the right direction for France. German youth unemployment is 8.1%, with 2.6 million students at vocational schools, and 1.46 million apprentices. Beginning Jan 2013, Germany will support youth from other eurozone countries with language courses and travel costs to work in these programs in areas of Germany with shortages of workers....

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Warnings to governments and leaders in industry and pharmaceutical research about epidemic preparedness by Bill Gates were ignored. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars to develop new vaccines and create disease tracking systems. But only governments could tackle this problem. He tells the WSJ in an interview that he feels terrible and that he wishes he had done more. His fear that a once in a century pandemic has come true. Governments did respond to the public health preparation needs as reported in France 24 to both SARS and the H1N1, both in Britain and France. It was the disbanding of this effort in the period of the global financial crisis and the eurozone financial crisis that led to the level of unpreparedness that Western Europe finds itself in today. This was caused by irresponsible banking practices. The response was austerity measures in Britain, France, Germany and Spain that led to leaving public health system investment being neglected, without fixing the original source of the problem. Misallocation of capital and lopsided priorities continued through most of the period leading up to the pandemic. There is a lot that Gates and other public spirited leaders could do now do in the new reordering of priorities and shifting the allocation of capital to public services and investments in infrastructure, and supply chain renewal to safeguard national interests. Today he is working with pharmaceutical executives and governments to produce billions of doses of vaccines while they are being tested. His foundation has reserved space in a manufacturing plant so that production can begin quickly once an effective vaccine is found. He says nobody has made 7 billion vaccines so that it will need all the help that it can get and international cooperation.  In an earlier interview with WSJ he told the interviewer in November 2014 that the world as a whole did not have preparedness. France and Britain prepared and then abandoned the effort for epidemic response by 2012 following the global financial and eurozone financial crises. Gates repeated the warning to 2016 presidential candidates in the U.S.  In 2017 at the Munich Security Conference he reminded people- "getting ready for a global pandemic is every bit as important as nuclear deterrence and avoiding a climate catastrophe." One focus of Gates was to come up with faster ways to a vaccine by using ready made components and then customizing it. This is an approach being adopted today by Oxford scientists and by Quidel Corp. in the U.S.   ...

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China's new foreign policy team under the Jinping-Keqiang administration. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi, becomes state councilor, and senior official on the team. The new foreign minister Wang Yi, was China's ambassador to Japan 2004-2007. The new ambassador to the U.S. is Cui Tiankai, a diplomat who graduated from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the U.S. Cui was ambassador to Japan 2007-2009. Managing the China-Japan and China-U.S. relationships is critical for China because China depends on U.S. and Japanese companies for investment and new technology, for continued economic progress. The relationship has been affected by the territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Germany as an advanced technology manufacturer and commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Argentina and Brazil depend on the Chinese market for exports, creating an interwoven economic dynamic that is likely to be the dominant factor in relations. This is also the perception of Li Keqiang who told a press conference in Beijing that the competition with the U.S. has been overemphasized, that he "does not believe conflicts between great powers are inevitable." Foreign affairs remains subordinate to domestic policy and priorities in China, as China tackles the problem of reorienting its economy to give an important place to the private sector and consumers. Itself not an easy task, as prime minister Keqiang pointed out at his first press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk." One of Keqiang's main allies in this effort is Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, who helped put together with China's DRC, the report "China: 2030," outlining these priorities....

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German leadership in the eurozone and the EU- with the strong stand for eurozone countries to do their economic homework and restore fiscal balance, and the action taken to bring the EU countries together on Russian intervention in Ukraine- is leading to questions about the dominant role played by Germany. Chancellor Merkel has played a leadership role partly because of the absence of other leaders with strong support in their home base who could provide such leadership. Merkel's poll rating in Germany actually shot up during the eurozone crisis from 40% in 2010 to 70% in 2013, and steady at 67% in June 2015, as German taxpayers and voters see Merkel as preventing debt ridden countries in the eurozone passing on higher costs in the debt crisis to Germany. With German wages kept low for the last decade to ensure a economic recovery and lower unemployment, Germans see no reason to support other eurozone countries when a low wage sector exists inside Germany, except under conditions that ensure fiscal balance. In a Harris poll taken in France June 30-July 1, 2015, Chancellor Merkel is rated higher at 43% expressing approval compared to 36% saying they approve of French premier Hollande's handling of the Greece and eurozone crisis. Over 50% of people in Spain and in France disapprove of Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis, yet two thirds of France's main centre right party support Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis. In the Harris poll when asked how Merkel, IMF, Hollande and Tsipras handled the Greece crisis people polled in France gave 43% approval to the IMF and Merkel compared to 36% for Hollande and Tsipras of Greece, and 60% disapprove of Hollande and Tsipras handling of the crisis compared to 53% disapproval for the IMF and Merkel. The Christian Democrats party in Germany has dominant leaders in its tradition starting with Konrad Adenauer in the early postwar years, through the Kohl years during reunification and Merkel in the eurozone crisis. By contrast the Social Democrats from the period under Wily Brandt, through the Schmidt years and Schroeder have operated under more of a consensus leadership. Under Sigmar Gabriel or some other Social Democratic leader Germany is likely to have a different style of leadership in the future, especially because the German public does not favor Germany playing this kind of dominant role. At different points in the eurozone crisis Merkel's leadership was needed for decisionmaking- making banks take a 50% writedown on their loans in negotiation with Charles Dallara in Brussels, calling for Italy's president to bring in a new government (led by Mario Monti) when premier Berlusconi failed to make needed changes, and providing flexibility for spending rules for Spain, Italy and France. Merkel has actually moved to the centre to maintain popular support inside Germany, especially since the new coalition government was formed with Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel. On the other major issue of immigration Merkel has provided decisive leadership to prevent the rise of anti-immigrant parties in Germany. Herfried Munkler, author of "Power in the Middle," about why Germany is playing this role may provide clues to Germany's role- by representing different aspects of German public opinion Merkel has prevented the rise of right wing populist or nationalist parties in Germany, which would distort the German narrative about what it sees as its role in keeping Europe together after three wars. ...

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Lessons can be learned about careful reopening in fighting the coronavirus from other countries. Here the Netherlands experienced a rise of cases by 500% within two weeks of reopening after some poor decisions. The Mark Rutte government decided to open all bars and nightclubs resulting in a twelve fold surge in these locations in one week. Most of the new coronavirus cases were in people 18-29. Data from Dutch public health institute shows 4 out of 10 new cases linked to bars and nightclubs with 262% surge in cases for young people 18-24 years. This goes to show that with the vaccination drive what we see is the cases shifting to younger people, the unvaccinated, and to activities like nightlife. People going to work, or doing hybrid remote work with trips to the office, workers in factories, people doing essential shopping, are not causing the rise in cases. Much can be learned from these examples in working out reopening that does not lead to new crises with surging cases in new waves of coronavirus. Earlier in 2020 summer tourists who ignored mask and social distancing restrictions in Croatia brought on a post summer coronavirus wave to Germany and Austria. This time Greece and Portugal are introducing restrictions. Greece plans to make vaccine health pass required effective July 21 to go into restaurants. Another lesson from Netherlands this week is that a 20,000 person music event of 2 days in Utrecht where QR codes were required showing vaccination or PCR tests failed. About 1000 cases were attributed to the Utrecht event alone. Reasons given are that people faked the QR codes, or that the covid testing system produced too many false results as much as 20%. The same QR code system was followed at nightclubs resulting in big problems. One can never be sure that things work as expected and the risks are great as this adds up. Even vaccines offer limited protection and only if fully vaccinated depending on the type of vaccine. One dose of the vaccine is simply inadequate, and obesity, other morbidities can lead to problems. Withdrawing the mandatory use of face masks in most situations is also a risky decision of the Dutch government. Face masks offer the added protection at a time of variants that spread quckly, and when large parts of the population have only one dose of the vaccine, some elderly are still not vaccinated, and young people have not been vaccinated in large numbers. ...

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Issues in dialogue with the Europeans include Guantanamo Bay prisoner relocation, missile bases in Poland and Czech Republic, tensions with Russia, nuclear development in Iran, and Afghanistan.

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Russia is excluded for the second year for the G-7 Summit meeting of leaders in Berlin, in June 2015. The exclusion follows Russian intervention in Ukraine.

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Public opinion in Germany now senses that politicians including Angela Merkel are reluctant to tell Germans that debt reduction has to be part of the solution for Greece, that some of the billions are lost and never coming back. They sense that Merkel and the Christian Democrats are waiting till after the elections in 2013 to bring this up directly. Even people on the street in Berlin know that Greece can never get back on its feet on the basis of spending cuts without debt reduction. The loan instalment approved in Nov. 2012 reflects the new approach of debt reduction but the German government is reluctant to talk about it. Opposition parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier of the Social Democrats told ZDF German television: "The debt cut has not been avoided, it has been postponed to a time after the parliamentary elections. We are realistic and try to tell the people honestly and sincerely whats going on. Schauble and the present government try once more to finagle their way around the truth." Greece's debt has already reached 170% of GDP and can only go up as the economy shrinks further in year after year of recession. Norbert Barthle, a senior Christian Democrat, says if the debt reduction takes place today it sends the wrong signal to all the program countries, reducing the pressure for reforms and changes....

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It seems like good common sense -surely studies come later that masks can cut coronavirus cases by 40%- as Texas is learning the hard way. As coronavirus cases jump in Texas the governor makes wearing face coverings or masks mandatory in the state. Texas recorded over 8000 cases in a single day on July 3, 2020. "wearing a face covering will help us to keep Texas open for business." As a grim warning to Texans he said "we are now at a point where the virus is spreading so fast there is little margin for error." As the virus cases surged Mr. Abbott, the governor of Texas, ordered all bars shut and cut restaurant capacity by 75% last week and reversed step taken to open the economy. Another lesson learned the hard way when it seems like common sense- consider that on June 20 as reported in the WSJ a staggering 500,000 people went to bars in Los Angeles county the day after bars reopened. It is this type of activity that makes Dr. Fauci, say cases could reach 100,000 a day in the U.S. Infection rates are now increasing in 40 of 50 states with the southern states, western states doing badly.  A lot of it was plain common sense. A German study shows a 40% reduction of coronavirus cases when masks or face coverings are worn. For those arguing for the reopening so that economic hurt is mitigated there is even more reason to wear masks as it makes it possible to get back to work by following strict social distancing and mask guidelines. Everything in life is about adapting and making small changes for the larger good. Younger people have badly failed to show fellow feeling with lack of following social distancing guidelines on beaches and gatherings leading to the numbers now showing that people 18-34 are now equally at risk. ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...