LyrArc Article Gist
As growth slows in Germany, with contraction in the second quarter followed by expected growth of annualized 1% in the remainder of the year, debate is growting for tax cuts and ways to promote business investment. DIW, a think tank in Berlin, says the government's goal of a balanced budget may be unsustainable in the current economic climate. Deep spending cuts in Spain and Italy have not been supported by increased spending in Germany, say critics, leading to a too tight fiscal policy for the weak state Europe is in. ECB president Draghi is also pointing out the the need for changes, by saying- "It may be useful to have a discussion on the overall fiscal stance of the euro area with the view to raising public investment where there is fiscal space to do so."

LyrArc Article Gist
Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece's New Democracy Party, opposes the tax increases mandated by the E.U.'s June 2011 program for Greece. He supports the spending cuts. The shrinking economy with no hope for recovery under the current plan will only worsen the situation. The Greek economy declined by 4.5% in 2010 and will decline 3% to 4% in 2011, and unemployment is already at 16%, with much higher unemployment among young people. Many experts, and editorials in the Wall Street Journal and the Economist, share this opinion. With the austerity program's cuts and tax increases deeply unpopular among ordinary Greeks Samaras's party is moving ahead of Prime Minister Papandreou's socialist party in public opinion polls. Papandreou is not expectd to complete his term of office which ends in 2013, and a change of government may come by the end of 2011. At that point the E.U. leaders will have to negotiate with Samaras. Samaras says he told German chancellor Merkel- if your plan works I will say I was wrong, but if it doesn't you will need a new plan....

LyrArc Article Gist
Prof. Scott Kennedy of the Research center for Chinese Politics and Business, voices concerns of experts who think that the $585 billion stimulus and the doubling of lending this year, increase in exports by a third last month, all point to an economy that is expanding too quickly. Kennedy says that no one defies economic laws, that eventually endless growth can get get you in trouble. The concern is whether the overexpansion of credit and the size of the stimulus may have led to overreaction in stimulus spending. People's Daily newspaper of China said that China's leaders are moving much faster than leaders of developed nations. But the flip side of this is that in the rush to increase spending there may be a lot of wasteful spending resulting in many bad loans a few years from now.

LyrArc Article Gist
Since 2004 consumer spending's share of the economy in China has fallen from 40% to 35%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

LyrArc Article Gist
Estimates of the exposure of European banks to Greece's sovereign debt shows BNP Paribas has 5.01 billion euros in exposure to Greek debt, Societe Generale 4.23 billion euros, Deutsche Bank 3.02 billion euros, and HSBC 1.94 billion euros, Credit Agricole 0.85 billion euros, Unicredit 0.80 billion euros, Santander 0.51 billion euros. The exposure of French, German, Italian and Spanish banks in Greece is a critical difficulty in resolving the crisis, as the banks are still in a fragile condition after the global financial crisis of 2008. With the debate on resolution of the crisis focusing on how a three way distribution of the burden should take place between austerity cuts, bondholder and creditors, and taxpayers in Germany and other EU countries, negotiations are finally taking place between each European government and the banks of that country. Three countries where such talks are taking place are Germany, France and the Netherlands. Finance ministry officials in Germany and France met with representatives of the banks and insurers in their country to arrange for the banks to voluntarily take losses on their holdings. The respective holdings of Greece's government debt according to the Bank for International Settlements are: French banks $14 billion, German banks $22.65 billion. Overall exposure to Greece is higher for French banks- at $56.7 billion for French banks and $33.97 billion for German banks. This opens the door to a Brady Plan type solution for the financial crisis in EU countries Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain....

LyrArc Article Gist
The lower house of the French parliament approved the EU budget discipline treaty that limits deficits to 3% of GDP. It passed with a large majority of 477 votes to 70. About 284 members of the left parties voted for the bill. Sarkozy had pushed for passage of this treaty and Hollande agreed to it in his talks with chancellor Merkel of Germany. At the same time Germany and France agreed on promoting growth measures. The new French budget for 2013 reflects this committment to reducing the deficit to 3%. France's deficit declines from 4.5% in 2012 to 3% in 2013 under the new budget. It does this with shared sacrifices and higher corporate taxes and without sharp cuts in government spending that could hurt the economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Glenn Hubbard describes how the difference in approach between Romney and Obama matters, as it did between Carter and Reagan. The basic difference being the importance of getting long term policy on the right track. See the Reagan memo in Groups for the importance of setting the right tone and emphasis on a consistent long term direction, which was advice given in the memo by Shultz and other advisors to Ronald Reagan. The belief in growth from private sector investment and job creation and putting the right policies in place is a distinct difference between the Romney and Obama plans.

LyrArc Article Gist
The dangers to Turkey from external short term borrowings to finance its current account deficit. Turkey's current account deficit reached 10% of GDP in 2011. It is 8% in 2012 and is considered high by experts. The problem is short term borrowing from overseas which is sent through its banks for increasing levels of personal and housing loans. Were this flow to dry up because of a sharp downturn in the Eurozone economies it would damage Turkey's financial position. Bank short term external debt has doubled in 2011-2012 to $70.3 billion, or 9% of GDP, according to Capital Economics. The U.S. Fed and the ECB have eased global liquidity concerns, but risks are high as long as Turkey relies on short term borrowing. An escalation of the conflict with Syria also poses risks with fears of scaring away investors.

LyrArc Article Gist
The IMF in April 2012 said Spain may have moved too aggressively with austerity measures. The IMF said: The new deficit target in Spain "could have accomodated more fully the impact of the weak growth outlook." This supports the Spanish government's view that it has to balance controlling spending measures and redctions in spending with considerations that take into account the weakness of the economy and high unemployment. One of the important considerations is that the private sector and banks faced with losses in the housing bubble are not likely to generate growth at this time, leaving growth dependent on government spending; which if cut too quickly could lead to declining GDP and even lower tax revenues with higher deficits. The government of prime minister Rajoy is faced with the difficult task of creating credibility in financial markets about controlling years of spending by regional governments during the housing boom, and at the same time applying prudence in not taking steps that would hurt the economy at a delicate time....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP increased by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2012. This is down from 2% in the first quarter of 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's National Reform Plan shows a forecast of GDP contraction in 2012 of 1.2%, up from an earlier forecast. Italy will show a budget deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2013. Italy's Deputy Economy Minister Vittorio Grilli poitsed out that in structural, cyclically adjusted terms Italy will post a budget surplus of 0.6% of GDP in 2013, that fiscal policy was tightening. This was confirmed by the IMF which said that Italy will achieve structural balance in 2013- which means that if the economy were operating at full potential Italy would have a balanced budget.

LyrArc Article Gist
The IMF predicts GDP decline of 1.9% in Italy in 2012.