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Chancellor Merkel and listening to German public opinion reflected in state elections of 2016
09/20/2016
Here we argue that contrary to general media coverage in the NYT, WSJ, Economist, and German media, a year from now Merkel may be seen more positively. This is because Merkel has always listened to public opinion carefully, and has told the German public frankly what happened- that she and the German government were caught unprepared in the refugee crisis that came up in summer 2015.
Linked Articles
German politics is turning into a six-party system
The Economist 09/19/2016
Opinion: Berlin, capital of mediocrity | Opinion | DW.COM | 19.09.2016DW.COM 09/19/2016
The question of addressing intergenerational mobility in the U.S. following the presidential election of 2016- a key issue for future years
08/16/2016
Linked Articles
WSJ 08/15/2016
How Economic Anxieties Explain Donald Trump’s Appeal—And Where They Fall ShortWSJ 08/16/2016
Ireland, Northern Ireland and Britain- preserving the gains of the peace deal and the open borders after Brexit
07/12/2016
Northern Ireland favored Remain in EU by 55%. Should it be pushed into a situation of withdrawing from the EU like Scotland which also favored Remain based on the preference of voters in England and Wales? Should Ireland be divided by hard borders again after 20 years of peace and open borders? These are questions the people of Ireland are asking.It is also a question for Irish Americans who supported the peace deal.
Linked Articles
The New York Times 07/12/2016
Ireland in the sun after Brexit vote? | Europe | DW.COM | 05.07.2016DW.COM 07/05/2016
"Deaths of Despair", the causes and effects in a larger context, and the drop in America's ranking in the Social Progress Index to 19th in 2016
07/01/2016
How the middle aged white Americans 45-54 are faring in the current environment with fewer opportunities and greater vulnerabilities in health, education incomes, savings, quality of life, mortality, upward mobility, for this group. Tragically this means their children and the next generation is also affected in the way fewer opportunities are available in the future. The situation is unique to America with weaker social protection than Europe, and to Britain because of years of austerity. There are no quick fixes with easy slogans, and requires first a national awareness, national consensus, and may require the better part of a generation to solve and restore the hope and promise of Jefferson in making the "inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" available to all.
Linked Articles
Rising Death Rates for Middle-Aged White Americans Are Forcing a Policy Rethink
WSJ 06/30/2016
The U.S. Now Ranks 19th in ‘Social Progress,’ With Finland and Canada Topping the ListWSJ 06/30/2016
Pope Francis's roots in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and the message of humility, a humbler Church and concern for the poor, that resonate in the U.S. and around the world
09/18/2015
Linked Articles
A Humble Pope, Challenging the World
New York Times 09/18/2015
Poll: Americans widely admire Pope Francis, but his church less so - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/20/2015
The failure of the U.S., UK, Canada and Australia to take in refugees from war torn Syria and other parts of North Africa- 1500 for U.S. , 166 for UK, 800,000 for Germany
09/04/2015
Ignatieff of the Kennedy School and Kristof of the NYT say the inaction of Obama, Cameron, Harper and Abbott, is deplorable considering the gap between the 800,000 Merkel and the German people have openly welcomed and the 1500 the U.S. has accepted, and 166 the UK has taken in. There is hardly any mention of the issue by the leaders of the U.S. and Canada in September 2015, even as the global media has covered this daily. In Hungary the Orban government faile to remember the Hungarian uprising of 1956 and the violent crackdown by the Soviets, leading to a wave of refugees reaching other parts of Europe and the U.S.
Linked Articles
New York Times 09/04/2015
The Refugee Crisis Isn’t a ‘European Problem’New York Times 09/05/2015
Jon Stewart and "The Daily Show"- 16 years of constructive discourse in American society
08/07/2015
Linked Articles
Jon Stewart’s last ‘Daily Show': A sentimental sign-off from the B.S. detector - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/08/2015
Jon Stewart Signs Off From ‘Daily Show’ With Wit and SincerityNew York Times 08/07/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
Economic changes in the first year of the Modi administration in India- groundwork for 2016-2018
05/23/2015
Linked Articles
Economist 05/23/2015
How to run a continentEconomist 05/23/2015
The challenges facing K-12 education in the U.S. in 2015 with a larger proportion of children from less affluent and poor backgrounds, and two thirds of American children failing math and reading proficiency required levels in 8th grade for 2015
01/17/2015
With a majority of children in California, Texas, and some midwestern states in the U.S. from less affluent or poor backgrounds, and about two thirds of all American students failiing to meet required proficiency in math and reading at 8th grade, the educational challenge of of creating a well qualified work force to build America's future is daunting. Eight years of policy changes in education and private efforts have failed to produce adequate results.
Linked Articles
U.S. student performance slips on national test - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/28/2015
Majority of U.S. public school students are in poverty - The Washington PostWashington Post 01/17/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
Haider al-Abadi and Iraq's effort to bring Sunnis and Shiites together to reverse years of sectarian conflict 2014-2015
08/15/2014
Linked Articles
Next Leader May Echo Maliki, but Iraqis Hope for New Results
New York Times 08/19/2014
Iraq’s Last ChanceNew York Times 08/15/2014
The 1976 Montreal Olympics, the 2004 Athens Olympics, the 2014 Sochi Olympics and the Rio Olympics- decades long debt hangovers and costs growing from the $1+ billion in Montreal to $50+ billion in Sochi
08/24/2016
Developing and developed countries alike have seen the cost of the Olympics as a huge burden. Many countries or cities that committed to hosting the Olympic games during boom years were facing economic hard times by the time of the games. Corruption and mismanagement of public funds, overspending and cost overruns added to the problems. Citizens uproar caused cities such as Boston and Oslo to withdraw bids for the Olympics. The Olympics appears to be a costly way to show off a country, and raises questions about better allocation of funds in other directions, especially when upward mobility is a problem for the middle and working class, countries have other infrastructure needs, and neglected basic needs in education, healthcare, public services.
Linked Articles
The 40-year hangover: how the 1976 Olympics nearly broke Montreal
The Guardian 07/06/2016
Rio Games Highlight Problems With the Olympic ModelThe New York Times 08/23/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Angela Merkel's leadership during the immigration and Brexit crises by July 2016- increasing support for the European Union in Germany and personal support up to 59 percent in Deutschland trending poll
07/08/2016
By offering "calm and composed" leadership during the Brexit crisis, and being flexible in dealing with genuine concerns about immigration in Germany, Merkel shows Europe a better way than fractious British, French or American politics during a critical period when good responsible leadership is missing.
Linked Articles
Poll: Brexit vote boosts support for EU in Germany | News | DW.COM | 08.07.2016
DW.COM 07/08/2016
Angela Merkel Is Motivated By Decency, Not PoliticsWall Street Journal 12/21/2015
The pause in the U.S. economy with the May 2016 U.S. jobs report showing 38,000 jobs added
06/06/2016
Krugman discusses the U.S. May 2016 jobs report from the Labor Department. He says it will be harder to come up with a response to the political uncertainty in an election year, especially now that rates are near zero.
Linked Articles
Sharp Fall in U.S. Hiring Saps Chance of Fed Rate Increase in June
The New York Times 06/03/2016
A Pause That DistressesThe New York Times 06/06/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
The devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 as China responds to lower exports, the appreciation of the euro and the yen, and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise rates
08/12/2015
China's currency appreciated 9.2% against the euro and 57% against the Japanese yen with its soft peg to the dollar in 2013-2015. The 8.3% decline in China's exports for July 2015 over the prior year led to the policy action to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan on August 11, 2015.
Linked Articles
China is trying to save its economy with a cheaper currency - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/12/2015
China’s Devaluation GambitWall Street Journal 08/12/2015
Trump's casinos and Griffin's Citadel hedge fund- risky financial investments and path from collapse to recovery
08/04/2015
WSJ reporters Grant and Berzon on Trump, and Copeland on Ken Griffin of the Citadel hedge fund provide an inside look at the financial dealings and maneouvring of Trump, the huge risk and leverage taken on at Citadel by Griffin. In doing so they provide insights into the manner of operating and personality of the two businessmen.
Linked Articles
Trump and His Debts: A Narrow Escape
Wall Street Journal 01/04/2016
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Leaves 2008 Tumble Far BehindWall Street Journal 08/04/2015
The real story behind the higher growth in the Reagan-Clinton years, the lower growth during the Bush-Obama years and Jeb Bush's 4% target
06/18/2015
Linked Articles
New York Times 06/19/2015
Hillary Got It Right About GrowthWall Street Journal 06/18/2015
Japan's fighter pilot Harada's message of "never to forget," the new generation of leaders, and a public unaware of the horrors of war
04/03/2015
Harada and Noonan describe the problem today of a generation of leaders and public that were born following the Second World War, who have no knowledge of the horrors and the pain of that war. He has tried to keep the memory of that conflict and the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, by teaching Japanese children in a kindergarden so that a new generation does not forget.
Linked Articles
Retired Japanese Fighter Pilot Sees an Old Danger on the Horizon
New York Times 04/03/2015
Misplaying America’s Hand With IranWall Street Journal 04/04/2015
The case for a minimum wage for U.S. workers with families to support- how Australia approaches the issue taking into account the median wage
12/31/2014
Australia's minimum wage is 54% of the median wage, compared to 38% for the U.S., according to the OECD. Australia's wage setting body sets the minimum wage for workers over 20 years of age, and takes into account the median wage in the interest of fairness. Workers with families to support need the Australian minimum wage of 16.87 Australian dollars ($13 U.S.). All of this money goes into consumer spending providing an immediate boost to the economy.
Linked Articles
Australia Weighs Whether Its Minimum Wage Is Too High
Wall Street Journal 01/26/2015
States’ Minimum Wages Rise, Helping Millions of WorkersNew York Times 12/31/2014
Bank of Japan's Kuroda adopts the ECB's Draghi's stance on the economy, saying "we will do whatever it takes" in Nov. 2014
10/31/2014
Efforts by Kuroda to reach the 2% inflation target in 2 years.
Linked Articles
Bank of Japan Announces Massive Stimulus Move
Wall Street Journal 11/01/2014
Japan Abruptly Acts to Stimulate EconomyNew York Times 10/31/2014
The failure of Maliki to reduce sectarianism in Iraq, and the failure of the Obama administration's Middle East policy, lead to reversal of years of effort in Iraq
08/15/2014
WSJ reporter Bradley talks to Maliki's aides who say he is only interested in personal power not the future of Iraq. Gen. James Jones, National Security Advisor to U.S. president Obama 2009-2010, says Maliki's corrupt policies and using increased sectarian conflict to further personal power, and president Obama's failure to act in Syria when chemical weapons were used as well as not maintaining a training presence after the withdrawal, are both responsible for the summer 2014 collapse in Iraq.
Linked Articles
How to Save Iraq and Honor American Sacrifice
Wall Street Journal 08/15/2014
Iraq Crisis: Nouri al-Maliki QuitsWall Street Journal 08/15/2014
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