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While Italy's budget deficit of 5.3% of GDP in 2009 is relatively healthy, its public debt as a percentage of GDP is rising and forecast to be 118%. The growth in tax revenues is negligible because Italy has seen only 0.54% annual average growth in GDP in the past decade, so its much harder to manage the debt. As the interest on debt exceeds the rate of growth, debt keeps rising all the time, say experts. This makes it harder for Italy to borrow in capital markets, a 9.5 billion bond offer in April 2010 drew onlly 9.78 billion euros in bids. The debt financing is helped by the Italian households having a high savings rate of 15%, and holding 25% of Italy's bonds.

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Italy has 1.5 trillion euros of debt outstanding and this is the third largest behind USA and Japan. About 241 billion euros worth of Italian government bonds are expected to be issued in 2010, with 171 billon euros of this in redemptions. Interest rates need to be low to not widen its deficit. Italian debt is expected to go up to 118% of GDp in 2011 from 103% in 2007 according to Moody's Investors Service.By contrast Spain's debt s expected to go up by 38% in the same period. Italy's households are less burdened with debt than Spain's. still Italian bonds are affected, as yields widened between Italian and German government bonds to 1.58% compared to before the euro-zone rescue plan of 750 billion euros.

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European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, addressing the European Parliament in Brussels on April 25, 2012, supported both sides in the issues facing the eurozone, calling for continued vigilance on structural reforms to improve competitiveness of countries in the eurozone such as Spain and Italy, and at the same time saying it was imperative to generate economic growth. He told the European parliament: "The uncertainty about the present situation is very, very, high... Any exit strategy is premature given the current economic situation." Saying that the fiscal compact had been negotiated recently to control spending, yet what Europe needed was also a growth compact- "but my most present thought right now is to have a growth compact." He emphasized that it was now upto governments and banks to pick up the ball. The ECB's achievement was buying time with its 3 year loans to banks in Spain and Italy and other EU countries in Dec. 2011-March 2012, which he described as no ordinary achievement. Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel seized on Draghi's comments to show they were doing the right thing. Merkel conceded that growth was needed, saying sustainable initatives would be good for Europe, that what Germany was opposing was simply stimulus spending that would increase debt without the structural reforms to improve competitiveness. Hollande for his part said he would call for eurozone bonds to pay for industrial and infrastructure projects, and a financial transactions tax....

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The Journal profiles the small company of Dell'Orco & Villani in Prato, in the Tuscany region of Italy, in the context of the eurozone financial crisis in Greece, Italy and Spain. The Italian economy is dominated by such companies that have remained small and decided not to grow because of the difficulties facing them in the form of red tape, the slowness of courts in enforcing contracts, and labor laws that make it harder to hire employees and retrench in a recession. Today Italy's economy is only 3% larger than 10 years ago. Companies with less than 20 workers dominate the economies of southern European countries, employing 60% of the workforce in Italy and Greece, and half the workforce in Spain and Portugal. This compares with 30% in Germany and 20% in the U.S., according to the O.E.C.D. Businesses face an average of 258 days to get permits to open a new warehouse in Italy, compared to 26 in the U.S., according to the World Bank. Enforcing a contract in court could take as long as 1210 days in Italy compared to 300 days in France and the U.S. Italy's postwar economic recovery was based on these small firms around cities like Turin, or textile locations such as Prato. But building economies of scale has eluded these firms, and businessman from that period such as the elder Dell'Orco are content with remaining small. The Dell'Orco family firm makes machines that recycle plastics, rubber and other junk into fibers that can be used for carpets or clothing. The firm has trouble making a decision to hire a new younger worker to do work after four older workers retired. The company makes the machine that only does the first stage of the processing, referring customers to another firm in Prato for the second machine. Most decisions including a tiny showroom are made in excruciatingly slow fashion because they go through the family patriarch, the 91 year old founder. The son and granddaughter defer to him in all decisions. An unsold machine costing 400,000 euros sits in the factory after one buyer decided to delay the purchase, making it risky to grow. During the pre-euro period of the last two decades Italian businesses could take advantage of the regular devaluations of the lira to price below their competitors in Germany and other countries. During the last two decades competition from emerging market economies S.Korea, China and India have added to problems competing in global markets, without the advantages of scale. The inability to hire younger workers hurts unemployment for the young- youth unemployment in Italy is 29% in 2011....

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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...

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About 171,000 refugees tried to cross the 250 mile stretch of ocean in rickety boats from Libyan ports into Italy in 2014, according to Frontex, the EU border agency . Refugees from Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and Eritrea are fleeing their homelands. A smuggling trade is carried out by tribes in Libya for these refugees, with one tribe making $60,000 a week. The tribes then use the money to buy weapons in the Libyan civil war. Migrant deaths at sea and inadequate rescue efforts are leading to a humanitarian crisis for Italy and the EU.

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P/E ratios for stocks in the U.S., Europe and the emerging market countries in 2013. A large gap between the U.S. and Europe for longer term returns, 22 for the U.S. compared to 10 for southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Ireland. This uses the cyclically adjusted returns based on the Shiller P/E which takes average ten year earnings adjusted for inflation. Using earnings expectations for the next year the U.S. P/E is 13.5 compared to 12.7 for developed markets including Germany and the UK.

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The borrowing costs of Italy declined sharply as 9 billion euros of Italy's government bonds were auctioned at a yield of 3.25 percent on Dec. 28, 2011, compared to 6.50 percent at a prior auction in November 2011. The rate on 1.7 billion euros of two year bonds auctioned declined to 4.85 percent from 7.81 percent in November. This follows action by the ECB providing a large infusion of low cost funds to European banks charging only 1 percent on three year loans.

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The new government of prime minister Enrico Letta in Italy suspended the summer instalment of the tax on primary residences which was unpopular in Italy. The new government plans to overhaul the tax code this summer to change the way it impacts real estate. This was one of the tax measures taken by the Monti administration. 1 billion euros will go to a wage supplement program, so that companies can retain employees during the economic downturn. Another program to provide business incentives for hiring is being considered. The new government committed itself to bring down the deficit in Italy to under 3% in 2013, which would help keep Italian borrowing costs down.

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The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says in a new report that the cost of renewable energy production in India in 2020 is the lowest of 8 countries, including China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, U.S. It also points out that India has lowered the cost of solar energy faster than any other country since 2017- by 80% for the period 2010-2018. Solar energy for India in 2018 cost 27% lower than in 2017. Major achievements have been made in solar energy and are continuing with bold targets. In 2020 solar makes up 36% of total energy capacity, with production at 136 gigawatts. In India the conditions with high degree of sunlight in most parts of the country, and the technology cost reductions, lower cost of land and labor, help bring down the cost of solar energy every year. The bold targets and action taken are symbolic of the new efforts in India. The early efforts in India are described as overcoming the hurdle of preconceived notions that electricity shortages had to be accepted as a way of life. In Gujarat the first efforts over 15 years ago were taken by rejecting the idea that electricity could not be made widely and freely available. To do this policy had to be set by starting with first a clean slate and then with a clean heart say pioneers in India's early gains. A clean heart because of how desperately people needed electricity. And a clean slate because how desperately people needed to start from scratch with a new structure and new way of doing things set in place. As Vivekananda put it over 100 years ago "This I have seen in life. One who is overcautious about himself falls into dangers at every step. he who is afraid of losing honor and respect gets only disgrace. He who is always afraid of loss always loses." By taking bold action, making small experiments then setting bold targets and setting structures in place to execute manned with resources, India has achieved 4G in all parts of the country, and is doing the same for renewable energy to make electricity widely available in all parts of the country. ...

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The inflation rate in the eurozone showed a decline of 0.2% in December 2014, showing the first signs of deflation. This is the first sign of deflation since 2009. The unemployment rate for the eurozone remained at 11.5% in November, with the rate in Germany improving to 6.4% in Dec. from 6.5% in Nov., but unemployment reaching 13.4% in Italy. Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, points to low energy prices, and core inflation data showing that excluding energy and food prices the core inflation rate increased to 0.8% in Dec. 2014 compared to 0.7% in November 2014.

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GDP growth for the 17 eurozone countries showed a 0.2% decline in the second quarter of 2012, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency. The German econonomy showed GDP growth in the second quarter 2012 of 0.3%, France showed zero growth for the third consecutive quarter. Italy and Spain showed negative 0.7% and negative 0.4% growth during the quarter. The ZEW indicator of sentiment in Germany fell to its lowest level reflecting German manufacturers reluctance to invest in new equipment. As the eurozone economic growth remains flat and declining for longer period, German business sees this affecting German exports. Analysts at Commerzbank and Dutch Bank ING see a further slowdown in the German economy in the second half 2012. The German economy showed GDP growth of 0.5% in the first quarter 2012, compared to the prior quarter, before declining to 0.3% in the second quarter. Further decline is now expected.

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Mark Gilbert, a visiting associate professsor of European History at the John Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Bologna, describes the crisis of the political culture in Italy that goes deeper than the economic crisis and has lasted for most of the post war period. Gilbert says the political parties have avoided implementing financial discipline and opening up the economy for most of the last two decades, except for brief periods, and did not take the opportunity of joining the eurozone to make serious changes. Italy has many parties with the Democratic Party having 25-30% support in the polls and Berluconi's People of Liberty (PdL) having the support of 20-25% of voters. There is also the Northern League, the Third Pole of centrist Catholic parties, the Italy of Values party, and the Ecology Freedom party. Italy lacks a national consensus on making the changes. The risk is that Monti will not have enough time to make the changes, as new elections may be held by April 2013. His government was formed as a government of technocrats led by former EU commissioner Mario Monti, after President Napolitano forced the PdL, the PD, and the Third Pole to work together to support the new government. Changes are needed in the legal system, local government, the health sector, and in the university system. One factor favoring Monti is that 90% of Italians voters are dissatisfied with the political parties, according to Italian think tank ISPI. For Italy the EU crisis has in this sense a positive aspect as it has forced Italy to come to grips with economic and cultural changes under a leadership from outside the political system....

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Just before the general elections of Feb 24-25 in Italy, the centre left PD party of Luigi Bersani sees its 12 point lead over the coalition of Silvio Berlusconi go down to 6 points. Former EU commissioner and prime minister in 2012, Mario Monti, has 14 points. The maverick Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo has the support of younger voters looking for a break from the past in Italian politics with 15 points. Italy's election rules automatically gives the coalition with the largest number of votes a 55% majority in the lower house of parliament. In the Senate a similiar rule gives a majority on a regional basis. For the eurozone the best outcome is for a Bersani win. Bersani looks to the Monti coaliton, which has the support of Italy's business community, for credibility and backing. The Economist provides an insight into how Italy lost competitiveness and income per capita stagnated in Italy in the last two decades. The dynamism of the sixties and seventies is missing, Italy's infrastructure is old and needs to be modernized, the productivity growth is negligible, and application of new technologies for productivity in many sectors is lagging. Political mismanagement under Berlusconi and other administrations before him has led to an entrenched stagnation and Italy badly needs to get out of this. Italy and Portugal are the only two countries with a lower per capita real income in 2013 compared to 1999, when the euro was launched. Unit labor costs have risen, and productivity has declined in the last two decades leading to lost competitiveness. The inability to resort to devaluations, and the lagging application of technology in many sectors, has increased the lack of competitiveness, with the economy becoming dependent on higher public spending, higher public debt. The result is higher unemployment at 11% and youth unemployment at 36%, infrastructure that is old and badly needs modernizing. Foreign investment is small, and the cost of doing business higher, including electricity rates 50% higher than the European average, R&D spending low, all of which need to be reversed for Italy to grow. But there is hope. The Economist cites an OECD report that shows the Monti government's reforms in regulatory, labor-markets, product-markets, can generate 4 points of GDP growth in the next decade. An IMF report of Jan 2013 looks at proposed reforms in energy, transport, professional services, judicial system and public services and more labor-market improvements, with the larger impact when done in combination, could add 5.7% to GDP growth in 5 years, and 10.7% in 10 years. Adding changes to taxation and shifting public spending towards investment for growth increases the figure to 21.9%....

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Moody's downgraded its outlook on Germany's triple-A credit rating to negative. It also shifted to negative the outlook on triple-A ratings of Netherlands. Spain's ten year bond yield went up to 7.51% on July 23, 2012 according to Tradeweb. Analysts estimate Spain needs to issue 28 billion euros of debt for the rest of 2012 to cover deficits and repay maturing debt, and 50 billion euros in short term Treasury bills. An additional 30 billion euros may be needed if tax revenues decline increasing the deficit, and to meet the needs of regional governments. In changing the outlook for Germany, Moody's emphasized the costs Germany would incur if Spain needed a full bailout and if the situation spread to Italy, including the large exposures of German banks to Italy and Spain.

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Mario Monti takes office as prime minister of Italy as Italian bond yields reach 7.4%. Italy faces the task of refinancing 200 billion euros of maturing bonds by April 2012. Bond yields exceeding 7% make the task of refinancing Italian debt even more difficult. Monti said he would try to restore Italy to financial health without giving up "social equity," and added that "we owe it to our children to give them a dignified and hopeful future."

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With the Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio CAPE at 26 for the U.S. in 2014, and the CAPE in Japan at 21, UK, Italy, Spain at about half that in the U.S., experts say international diversification is a good idea.

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The elections in Italy in Feb. 2013 show the centre left coalition headed by Pier Luigi Bersani with 29.6% of the votes in the lower house, the centre right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi with 29.2% of the votes, the Five Star Movement headed by Beppe Grillo with 25.6% of the votes, and the Civic Choice headed by Mario Monti with 10.6% of the vote. In the Senate the results show the centre left coalition with 31.6% of the vote, the centre right with 30.7%, the Five Star Movement with 23.8%, and Civic Choice with 9.1%. Election rules in Italy give the party with the highest number of votes for the lower house an automatic majority of 340 of 630 seats. The vote shows voter protest over austerity measures. This benefitted both the centre right and the Five Star Movement and hurt the Civic Choice centrist party of Mario Monti which implemented austerity measures in 2012. The centre left was affected by its role in coming to the aid of Monte de Paschi bank in Siena and failing to mount a strong campaign under Bersani. A majority in both houses is needed to provide a stable coalition government which opens the prospect of new elections. The Five Star Movement emerged as the largest single party. Its support comes from young people, internet based campaigning, and a rejection of the right and left parties from the old order in Italian politics, and offers a new dimension to Italy's political future....

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The Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel is Economics Minister in the coalition government of Angela Merkel in Germany. He is sympathetic to French premier Manuel Valls effort to reduce austerity in the 2015 French budget now being reviewed by Brussels. Here he takes the initiative to call for discussion on the issue of growth and austerity facing the European Union, by joining French Economics minister Emmanuel Macron in asking two economists Pisani-Ferry and Enderlein at the Berlin Institute of Governance for advice on generating growth. The process started in late summer with the defeat of the centre right government in Sweden which supported Merkel's strict austerity policies for balanced budgets. The elections to the European parliament showed the dire situation facing Cameron in Britain and Hollande in France with the unpopularity of austerity policies, higher taxes and cutbacks. The Socialist Hollande government has the lowest public opinion ratings of any postwar government in France, at 18%, and it is unwilling to go further down the road with austerity. At the same time Valls has found a partner in Italy with the growing popularity of Matteo Renzi in Italy who won 40% of the vote in Italy for the EU parliamentary elections of 2014. ECB president Mario Draghi, has generated the debate by saying at a October 2014 Brookings Institution conference in Washington D.C. that countries that have fiscal space (referring to Germany) should use it. He added that governments that did not take action in the economic crisis facing the eurozone of no growth will be swept away by public opinion. IMF president Lagarde, a former French Finance Minister under Sarkozy, has also questioned policy of strict austerity. For the first time since the start of the eurozone crisis in 2010 there is an opportunity for open discussion on future policies for renewal in the eurozone....

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Krugman points to the connection between the failure to achieve debt reduction through debt forgiveness and the sluggish economic growth in the eurozone and U.S., five years after the global banking and financial crisis of 2009 and four years after the beginning of the eurozone debt crisis in 2010. In the U.S. debt reduction for homeowners was delayed with a wave of foreclosures, and in Europe austerity budgets were the norm as Germany pushed hard for austerity policies. In 2014 small relaxation of austerity to give relief to voters took place in Greece, France, Italy and Spain, with austerity budgets still in place. Growth also slowed in Germany to slight contraction in the third quarter and no growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. This is leading to the formulation of new policy to address growth challenges in the eurozone. Debt to GDP is growing in eurozone countries and Britain because of lack of growth, even though spending cuts have been made, showing the need for rethinking policy. ...

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ECB study put out in April 2013 shows household wealth and income in eurozone countries based on 2009-2010 data for 60,000 households throughout the eurozone. The household wealth in southern European countries is higher than that in Germany. The study shows why ordinary Germans oppose bailouts for banks, Greece, and eurozone countries that experienced a boom in the 2000-2010 period, a period in which German workers took small pay raises to improve German competitiveness. Germans also see Portugal and Ireland in a different light compared to Greece, Cyprus, Italy and Spain where real estate speculation, lax accounting, tax evasion and favored treatment of certain groups, has created or aggravated the debt problems. Wealth is defined as total assets, including real estate, vehicles, bank deposits, investments and pensions, minus liabilities for mortgages, credit card debt and loans. By this measure German households had an average of 200,000 euros in wealth, and lower than this in Finland and Netherlands. At the median or midpoint German households had 50,000 euros, the lowest in the eurozone, for Greece the median was 102,000 euros. The impact of home ownership is significant in the report, as home ownership is lower in Germany than in Southern European countries, and mortgage interest is not considered favorably in German tax laws. The decline in value of homes after 2010 is also not reflected. Another indicator for comparitive wellbeing is income, and this is shown in figures released in March 2013 from the European Statistics Agency for GDP per capita. For Germany per capita GDP was 29,000 euros in 2010. The average GDP per capita for the eurozone is about 24,000 euros. By this measure Greece is at 21,000 euros, 24,000 euros for Italy and for Spain. Germany being 18-19% above Spain and Italy. If Germans, Dutch, Finns and Austrians are less well off then the argument favors having the banks, creditors, and including depositors, in a burdensharing arrangement for bailout of troubled eurozone economies. ...

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Greek tax evasion is estimated by three economists who studied data from Greek banks at about $11 billion based on a 40% tax rate, a third of the country's annual deficit for 2009. Unreported income is estimated at $28 billion. Doctors, dentists, lawyers, architects, engineers are the biggest groups underreporting income. Greece's parliament took up a bill in 2010 but the bill failed because of oposition from these groups. It remains to be seen if the Samaras government with support of the IMF-EC can take action similiar to that taken by the Monti government in Italy to go after tax evaders. By cutting the minimum wage and incomes of lower income groups disproportionately compared to cracking down on tax evasion and protecting incomes of higher income groups the economic plan for Greece proposed by the IMF-EC and the Greek government becomes unworkable and threatens the social fabric. By not raising this issue Germany's media and government have appeared callous in their pursuit of austerity measures as working class Greeks protested in Athens in 2011-2012, even though some of the issues raised by the Germans are legitimate. France and Italy are imposing a wealth tax to cut the deficit but this is not taking place in Greece. Global financial media has also not reported adequately on these aspects of the problem in Greece and Italy....

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Italy's Five Star party agrees to form a new government in alliance with the Democratic Party. Mr. Conte will continue as prime minister and heads the new government. Five Star party's coalition government with Mr. Salvini's Northern League was formed after elections in 2018. It collapsed after Mr. Salvini decided to breakup the coalition government in the hope of taking advantage of increasing popularity in the polls. The Five Star Movement was founded in protest against the conventional politics in Italy, but decided to join the establishment Democratic Party after Mr. Salvini's moves to call fresh elections. 

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Matteo Renzi's effort to push electoral reforms that would give the elected party or coalition a stronger mandate to govern than the current system, which has made Italy less governable. Stronger government action is needed to pull Italy out of the economic slump, with 12% unemployment and production down in December 2013, say business and industry leaders. Confindustria, Italy's major business association, expressed its sentiment: "We are worried that time is passing and nothing is happening." Renzi and prime minister Letta are from the same Democratic Party. Renzi was recently elected party leader. He has expressed doubts about the pace of change under the Letta administration.

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Prime minister Matteo Renzi focussed on some critical aspects of how other Europeans see the negotiations in the Greece bailout in June 2015. Considering that the EU had relaxed conditions for the surplus, a critical condition for reducing austerity programs in Greece and focussing on reforms, and considering the high unemployment not insisted on further cuts to the public sector employees, the conditions put forward focussing on reforms such as collection of taxes are seen as essental by other eurozone countries, including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Renzi told II Sole 24 Ore- "The point is that Greece may get different conditions, but it has to abide by the rules. It's not the case that we have taken early retiremnt pensions away from the people of Italy just to allow the Greeks to have them! We have brought in labor reform, but it is not the case that, with our money, a number of Greek shipowners can continue not to pay taxes.. I could go on." If he went on he would cite the tax collection laws and methods in Italy which were changed under prime minister Monti to tackle tax evasion in Italy, with no effort to collect the $11 billion in estimated taxes that are not collected in Greece. Italy banned cash payment above 1000 euros and started a cross referencing initiative to tackle tax evasion under premier Monti. Greece took up tax evasion legislation in 2010 in parliament but opposition from many groups led to no action. In 2012 Labor minister Elsa Fornero broke down in tears as she described raising the retirement age for women to 66 in the private sector from 60, saying this was to prevent "collective impoverishment." Italy lacks childcare and older women help with childcare for grandchildren. Renzi was probably thinking of these changes in Italy. He went on to say- " If there is a mass get-out clause over the rules, what will happen in Spain in October? And in France in a year and half? It is one thing to ask for flexibility amid abidance by the rules. It is another thing to think that one is the craftiest of them all, in other words to be the that does not abide by the rules. We want them to save Greece. But the people of Greece also have to want that." On tax evasion and other issues for long term financial health Greece is seen as not following basic financial rules for sustaining the euro....