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The concerns that China was going to overtake the US and become the largest economy is a misconception of how countries have developed through industry and technology. Britain and the other countries of Europe, Germany and France, went through rapid development in the 1930's and 1960's then at some point after saturation were relatively stagnant. China for the first time in 250 years of the Industrial revolution began to develop rapidly and urbanize in the 1990's. China is at that same point of saturation and it's economy moving to relative stagnation with 4% annual growth in 2026-2030 and 2-3% annual growth beyond to 2047. India is taking place of China as parts of India (large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra with population 500 million) can achieve 15-22% annual growth in 2026-2030. A quick idea of this can be seen here in the WSJ. China as a percentage of the global economy was 18.5% in 2021 and has since declined to 16.5% of the global economy in 2025. China was three fourth of the US economy when it peaked in 2021 and has since declined in 2025 to two thirds of the size of the US economy. As a percentage of the global economy China will go down to 12% over the next 5 years as India advances, and the population of US, Canada, Australia with their continental spaces continues to grow and with it GDP growth. This is validated from the Japanese experience of peaking at becoming 18% of the world economy by 1996 and then dropping by 2006 to about 11%, 2016 to 6% and 2025 to 4%. The combined effect is to reduce the size of China's economy as a percentage of the overall global economy at a point of time in the future 2030, 2040, 2050. Japan is a good example. There are other factors in play including technology and capital access as technology and capital shifts to other parts of the world where it can be better deployed and conditions are suited for rapid development as in India/Indonesia and in the US/Canada/Australia regions of 1.6 billion people and 450 million people from China (saturation overbuilding), the Middle East (wars and mismanagement). ...

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South Korea is the leading country for 5G services with 4.5 million users by the end of 2019. Except for streaming content seamlessly and downloading files the additional jump in speed has not made much difference. Smartphone users do not see a big change from the 4G service.

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Mikaela Shiffrin of Edwards, Colorado, and her original coach her mother Eileen, her candor, and her fighting spirit- at the Milan Olympics 2026. It shows the struggles of an American athlete before the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics in 2026. Her dads death in an accident, her fiance's accident in Wengen, and her accident at Killington, left this ski racer in turmoil and wondering with her therapist about the nuances in PTSD- everything she would wrestle with in those dark days when she even wondered whether she wanted to continue. This is told by Shiffrin with complete candor- something that endears her to her fans and to all the people around her- her ability to tell it all and tell it straight, about everything that is going on inside her, a remarkable gift. "For me, when I’m able to dig in and really understand something, for whatever reason, that allows me to be less scared of it. Less afraid.  And, thankfully, after a while, my body … it has started to remember what to do again." She runs through the race at Killington again and again trying to tell herself that it was ok hundreds of times, nothing happened, she was OK, she would be OK.  After the 100th win in Alpine ski racing downhill in Cortina in Italy in slalom racing- which requires a sharp precision of body and mind in perfect unified composure to turn within the slalom poles in fractions of a second- Mikaela feels "she can breathe again." ...

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US DJT administration using Section 301 creates the tariffs the US Supreme Court struck down- the EU, Mexico, Canada at 10%, Japan,, India China at 12.5%- June 2 2026. These countries are not doing enough to control the importation of products made with forced labour. This only goes to show what was said at that time and which the SCOTUS itself said the DJT administration could do, find other laws by which the same tariffs could be imposed. By the time the US Supreme Court reviewed the case it was already clear that all these countries had accepted DJT tariffs, and most had negotiated fair deals with the US including making up for past abuses by these countries of the international trading system. The US Supreme Court its shortsightedness ignored this or did not quite grasp this as Justices legal knowledge of facts does not mean grasp of the facts of commerce, trade and business and the history underlying it. Jamieson Greer interviewed at the Council of Foreign Relations this week and Robert Lighhizer in Foreign Affairs (covered and summarized on these Lyrarc pages this week as found rarely in other places) have documented these abuses in detail leading to the US losing $20 trillion in wealth shifted to these countries and its manufacturing dependent communities devastated by loss of over 5 million jobs through the shortsightedness of Bush/Obama adminstrations who let this happen, and these countries that took advantage with reckless disregard for these communities in the US, on a scale unknown in history.  ...

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FIFA's $3 billion in revenue from ticket sales is 3 times what it was in Qatar, prices per game are double that in Qatar. What's going on? FIFIA is being accused of price gouging practices by the Attorney Generals of New Jersey and New York. Six games including the finals are to be played in the NY-NJ area. FIFA's Infantino says it will use $11 billion in soccer revenues (90% of tickets sold for the World Cup in the US/Mexico) for this nonprofit to do soccer projects around the world.  Fans are not happy with the way FIFA is extracting higher prices to put visiting the game beyond the reach of ordinary households. Shouldn't making  it possible to watch the game for ordinary income soccer fans also be part of FIFA's responsibility- instead of taking the opportunities for visiting soccer fields away from ordinary income people. 

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Alberta referendum of October 19 2026 for separation from Canada. Alberta with oil and gas, Saskatchewan and Manitoba with agricultural production provide Eastern Canadian provinces such as Ontario and Quebec with food and energy,  Sepratist sentiment in Alberta comes from a sense that Alberta is being exploited by Eastern Canada for the last 100 years. An independent Alberta would be aligned with the US, more likely, though it could be part of the US states. Canada says Sir Ivor Jennings in his book Commonwealth of Nations, if it had joined the US in 1776 would have trade patterns north to south with trade between Vermont and New Hampshire to Ontario, Birtish Columbia with Washington state, instead of the east to west trade of the last 250 years with western Canadian product shipped to the more populated east. Alberta has 12 % of the population of Canada of 40 million or about 5 million people and contributes 15% of the Canadian economy.

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Questions China faces on AI- 17% high youth unemployment and 200 million young people in the gig economy in low wage demanding work. Chinese Communist party wants to see a stable China that can pursue industrial progress for decades like the European Union and the US. For this reason it is not going to let this level of dissatisfaction with high youth unemployment and low wage demanding work for young people to go to the next level. For this reason it will carefully make investments in AI -not the hyper investments in AI that are taking place in the US. The competition with China is going to take place on many fronts, and the industrial bloc created by the EU with India and Nordics has a 15 year plan during which it and the US are likely to far exceed anything China does at a slower rate of growth. As in the US choices will have to be made in China, investment in one area means disinvestment in other areas that have equal or more priority. Today's capital markets are in complete dysfunction in the US operated by a few banks and tech company leaders, similar to the situation prevailing in pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Investment priorities and planning are needed. It is a major error to say US cannot plan that capitalism does not have planning, because it is absolutely true that planning goes on at every level in American companies with Xerox, IBM, Oil Companies and other large companies, all having a Long Range Plan as well as planning for individual projects and investments in plants. If a good infrastructure plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place this will simply not take place. If no good reindustrialization plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place, this will simply not take place. In that case the competition with China would surely be lost before it had begun. Yet that is surely not the case, as every good American company has a long term plan. And this plan looks at all the potential investments the Nation can and should make in priorities and in the interests of the Nation and the People. All have to compete for resources and AI surely would not get the lions share of resources in China, or in the US, in a fair and well run market system where planning rightly takes place, because it would displace the very basic structure of a fair and well balanced economy that serves the American people, or the people of European Union and India, or the people of China. ...

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1.4 million green cards issued in the last year of the Biden administration 2024 as green cards issuance was at the highest level in a decade. Green cards to be issued only in the home country starting in 2026. The reasoning behind this decision is given by the US Immigration Agency-

"This policy allows our immigration system to function as the law intended instead of incentivizing loopholes. When aliens apply from their home country, it reduces the need to find and remove those who decide to slip into the shadows and remain in the U.S. illegally after being denied residency.”  

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Joana Stern says that she turned off her 5G and used 4G LTE on her phone- and barely noticed the difference. She says 5G is not such a big deal after all.

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NT looks at the Florida Advanced Courses and Tests which provide an alternative to the approach taken by the Advanced Placement AP Courses. AP in American History of the College Board differs from FACTS AP history Course in many ways. College Boards AP History gives the history of America as a flawed nation, not the nation we know from the Declaration of Independence that has inspired people around the world with its bold statement "all men are created equal" by Thomas Jefferson that set forth the ideal to reach for. The problem the world feels with the flawed nation idea is that it does not make America the beacon of democracy, the rule of law, of scientific and industrial progress that offer a path to progress for the emerging nations of Africa, Latin America and Asia, that they can emulate. AP History of the College Board does not accept the idea that the Bible was the source of inspiration for the Pilgrims that came to the US on the Mayflower, and not reading the Bible is to not be able top see life as seen by the early settlers of the US, even when there were flaws. ...

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In a nutshell why the economy is lopsided benefitting some, ignoring many. Labour's (salaries of all working people including professional classes) share of gross domestic income is 50% in 2026 the lowest since 1947, and profits highest since 1950 at 12%. Then you have hourly wages up 3% since 2019, while profits are up 50%. Greg Ip of the WSJ says the causes are complex and implications sobering. He says you can be a red blooded capitalist and still worry- is something wrong or unsustainable? Political stability, good governance structures, good institutional structures that were set up since Lincoln (the beginnings for the Industrial Revolution), by TR and FDR/Frances Perkins (the basic institutional and good governance structures of modern America and now the industrialized world that allied labor and capital with fairness to all), the entire setup needs to be rebuilt and renewed. The problems are also appearing in Europe and causing dismay, with calls for rebuilding and renewal. ...

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Google Alphabet able to raise $80 billion by issuing more stock with the share price only down slightly by about 3%. The huge amounts of money raised have an impact on borrowing rates (which increase) for other borrowers and reduce the amount of capital available for needs other than AI.  About 60% of the capital raised from share issuance, IPO's and other ways of raising capital is going into AI, making capital scarce for everyone else and for the economy's needs other than AI. Education, Healthcare, Infrastructure will all suffer. Infrastructure that is crumbling in the US and some of it from the middle of the last century needs to be rebuilt. AI is sucking up all these funds meant for infrastructure projects meaning that much of it is put further away in time. DJT and Biden promised infrastructure projects would get first priority. Will this happen? And who gets to decide what the Nation's priorities are?

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WSJ Quiz on data centers- test your knowledge. Does China have the most data centers? No the US with 4000, followed by Britain with 515 and Germany with 500 showing that China is not in the AI craze the way the US is even though the idea of the US falling behind in AI is used to get trillions of dollars in AI funding. This only means infrastructure that is dilapidated and broken in the US will not be replaced, and that the US plan to reindustrialize to get jobs will lack funding as dollars are diverted from these essential and vital needs to AI. Eventually Asian countries with new infrastructure will find ways to get that US technology without having to pay for it. The American public will be paying for this AI craze. We at Lyrarc.com checked how many data centers China has built? The number is 250 data centers are operational and note this in the MIT Technology Review it says 80% of these data centers are not being used, there is 80% overcapacity in China. Because China's AI such as Deep Seek is designed so that it uses less computing power. What this means is that only the US will put over 3 times the combined data centers put in by China, UK and Germany for AI and US will put in 16 times the data centers China has put in. As China only needs or is using 20% of its 250 operational data centers or 50 data centers the US is putting in 80 times the data center capacity China is using in 2026. Why 80 times? Because China has a Plan and it can manage the supply to the need or demand. In the US each company is trying to put so many in so it can get the leadership position in the market. For example Amazon puts in $200 billion instead of the $100 billion it can afford simply to be in the leadership ranks. There is much wasteful spending in the US market system than China's coordinated effort in a new technology even though ideologues like to say the US system is superior, and a plan by the state is frowned upon in the US, costing the US dearly when it lost its entire manufacturing base to China while economists said everything was OK. Even the WSJ Quiz fails to ask the question we asked about China and how many data centers China has actually made operational, how much is overcapacity- 250 datacenters and 80% overcapacity. Showing how little the public knows and even WSJ has looked into, giving a few companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and others the freedom to spend in a reckless way so that future infrastructure investments and reindustrialization investments will be crowded out in the US economy. And economists as usual will say its OK. ...

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Reliance India Limited to build 168,000 b/d Clean shale oil refinery in Brownsville Texas, to cut US trade imbalance of $58 billion with India by $15 billion a year, about 25%. Much of the product could be exported to India from the port of Brownsville in Texas. This helps improve relations with India as the US president was looking for ways to cut the trade deficit with India. The US India trade agreement is based on increased energy exports by US to India. US has a trade imbalnce with India of $58 billion which was an issue in recent trade talks with India. US wants India to get energy product from the US under the US India Trade Agreement. The president of America First Refining Trey Giggs says- "The United States has a surplus of light shale oil but a shortage of refining capacity designed to process it." This CLEAN refinery will strengthen the domestic supply chain. For India and Reliance (RIL) this is also a way to get out of the quagmire of getting supplies from the Middle East.   ...

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See the full interview with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer done by a former USTR and economist Michael Forman (Under Obama) at the Council of Foreign Relations. Here Greer makes valuable points about trade with Canada. America's automobile industry did not set up because American car makers decided to build in Ontario, Canada. It was because in a Trumpian way Canada told the US carmakers, if you want to sell in Canada you must make the cars in Canada. And today what does Canada under PM Carney say- that America is breaking the stable world order simply for DJT asking that cars sold in the US be made here or face US tariffs. What was right for Canada for decades should it not be right for the US also? The Europeans, Canadian and China's elites are not seeing that what the US did post war 1945 to rebuild their countries and the cooperation extended to them -in the same manner these countries owe it to themselves, to the world, to fairness and transparency in their dealings, to act in responsible ways. ...

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Bihar unemployment and West Bengal unemployment of 3-5% a fake number as the jobs counted include unstable temporary poorly paid work. Quality Jobs are only 10% of the workforce. These figures disguise huge problems. In Bihar and West Bengal youth unemployment is high and many youth simply leave the state for states in the western part of the country such as Gujarat and Maharashtra looking for work. In West Bengal the situation is particularly dire as the state government has blocked foreign investment and it is not an investment friendly environment. In addition the idea of a cut or a fee for everything and services, encouraged by the state government, leads to an entrenched climate of corruption that keeps out investment in industry and in infrastructure. The lack of cooperation with the federal government at the West Bengal state level leads to people in the state not having access to federal programs for housing, healthcare and water, sanitation. None of this shown in the media. When the media inside India and in the US or EU covers India, it fails to even give this importance. Probably because of the huge ignorance about India, its history and struggle for industrialization and modernization for the last 50 years. It is similar to the huge ignorance in America and Europe and inside China itself during the years of Japanese occupation of China in the 1930's, and through the efforts for industrialization in the 1960's and 1980's. A BBC article on fish is an example of this shown alongside this article on Bihar (and West Bengal). Both states were part of British Bengal, which is where the British based their Empire after the British East India Company secured rights to the revenues of Bihar and West Bengal by the 1780's, that had been take earlier by the Moghuls during their invasions from Afghanistan and Iran. This was the beginning of the destruction of West Bengal's economic structures in the way it happened in China by the 1850's with the Treaty Ports secured by the same East India Company of the British merchant Navy. The process of unwinding of this enterprise goes on today even 75 years after 1950 against the roadblocks to industrialization and modernization in India set by native corrupt state administrations. ...

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Ukraine's effort to neutralize the effect of oil price hikes by hitting export refineries in Russia- every $10 rise in prices brings in $1.6 billion more in tax revenues for Russia. One of these naval drones hit a target 900 kilometres away on the Russian oil refinery at Ust-Loga in the Baltic Sea, which exports 700,000 barrels a day of oil. At price of $120 compared to $70 this adds about $54 billion in tax revenues for Russia without drone attacks on Russian export refineries. Another approach taken by Ukraine is to propose cessation of attacks on Russian oil export infrastructure if Russia agrees not to target Ukraine energy infrastructure. Much of Ukraine experienced a cold winter with Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure and its apartment buildings.

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The media in US and in Europe presents the US and China on a confrontational course little aware that there is quietly emerging a new trend encouraged by both leaders of the two world powers. "Strategic Stability" in US -China relations instead of China seen as a rival and a threat- is now the goal of Xi Jinping of China in 2026 US-China dialogues and meetings. This was abundantly clear during the DJT visit to Beijing August 14 2026 and will continue to shape relations during Xi's visit in September. This is different from the confrontational attitude taken by both DJT in the first administration and Biden in his four years in office. The result is that these tensions are being gradually brought down which started in 2014, were exacerbated by Covid pandemic in 2019, and were put to the test in 2025 with tariffs policies of the incoming DJT administration. A decade of mistrust now being replaced by  buildup of cooperation, establishing a sense of trust and friendship. Partly out of necessity and partly from choice.This was not secured by giving up on issues the US or China saw as important. US did not concede anything on issues of fentanyl entering the US from Mexico, and tariffs for reducing trade deficits. Similarly China did not concede much on issues it saw as important, mutual respect for China as a significant power, and seeing China's different system of government and industrialization as legitimate and worthy of respect. On Hong Kong and on Taiwan both sides decided to see ambiguity and live and let live as the best option. So that in 2026 nothing, not the Iran War or anything that happens in the Middle East is to be allowed to deter both sides from making the educated good and decent choices that are available to them based on attitude of mutual respect.  ...

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Accidental inventions cornflakes, popsicles to treated rubber (Goodyear), the pacemaker (Wilson Greatbach), the microwave (Raytheon engineer Percy Spencer), and others in the recent history of America. There is along list of inventions by accident in science and medicine including penicillin for Europe since 1700 without which modern society could not exist.

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Pictures and moment by moment account of the final penalty shootout in The Guardian of the big game of the soccer season between PSG and Arsenal, Champions League Final in Budapest, Hungary.  A French soccer team prevails over a British soccer team with fans going in large numbers to Budapest for the game. PSG under Luis Enrique quiet style team play prevails in shootout at Champions League Final over Arsenal. The game 1-1 after a goal in the 7th minute by Germany's Havertz, and and an equalizer in the 65th minute by Dembele on a penalty kick. Hakimi, Mendes, Neve, Dembele, Ruiz, Barcola, Marquinhos and Doue, goalkeeper Marin were pulled together by Spanish coach Luis Enrique into a tightly knit team that played consistently to keep Arsenal to 1-1, with 92% accuracy in passes. Luis Enrique has given PSG a new mentality compared to star centric days when Mbappe, Neymar, Messi played at PSG when team play was secondary.  Luis Enrique says about the game that he"decided a long time ago to stay calm and try to enjoy it because you need luck to win on penalties. I think we were great in terms of the quality of our kicks and also the goalkeeper. It’s amazing [to retain the Champions League]. Maybe today both teams deserved to win, but the way we played the whole season, I think we deserve it. We’ll try to do it again next year. Why not? The match started in the best way for them, scoring after a lucky action. We are used to attacking [against a low block] but they are strong physically, they know how to defend and it was very tough." ...

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US president DJT sees CNN television network as "basically an arm of the Democratic party." He says "it is imperative that it be sold." Paramount run by Ellison has turned the CBS News station television network over to new management under Weiss. Paramount is now bidding for ownership of CNN. 

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Guardian's Essay on the War and how it has undone Iran pushed it back by decades with internal suppression of dissent, the diversion of vital resources that could be used for building the economy and standards of living, failing to build a sovereign investment fund like Norway and other countries setting aside money for a rainy day. Much of the young educated voters and business in markets is in the cities in Asia and this class has to be integrated into development to create advanced developed nations instead of a small class of people controlling the nation's resources under an ideological or religious sectarian leadership. It failed in Spain in the Franco years, and now in Venezuela and Iran, Pakistan, because it does not grasp what happened in Asia- in China, in India, in South Korea where even under communist (China), military (South Korea), the integration of the students, middle class business, all sectors of society, leads to all sections of society building advanced societies improving education, healthcare, and modernization infrastructure, joining Europe and the US to build the future of science and technology. ...

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After 3 by-elections in Toronto and Montreal Carney likely to have slim majority in Canadian parliament with 173 seats. The Liberals party has a 10-15% lead over the next party the Conservatives. Under Justin Trudeau Liberals had fallen behind the Conservative party in polling, only to be revived by Mark Carney of the Central Bank of England who sidelined some of the more controversial parts of Trudeau policies and gaining a big win in the recent elections. Carney has tried to find a way to keep Canada independent of US policy and able to chart its own path in the face of US tariffs and trade policy.

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...