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The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

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Everything you might want to know about coffee, where it comes from, how cultivation is changing with climate change and higher temperatures, and the effort to map the coffee genome. With higher temperatures the farming of coffee moves to higher altitudes in coffee growing countries in the tropics, but it is easier to cross breed the 124 varieties to produce a plant that can withstand the change in temperatures and one that can resist fungus.  A coffee fungus and higher altitude rains destroyed much of the crop in Central America including Guatemala. This led to increased migration to Mexico and U.S. of farmers leading up to Mr. Trump's plan to have the National Guard of Mexico police Mexico's border with Guatemala.  Coffee is a sensitive plant and needs cooler weather and water which is found more in the tropics. Growing it in California or in Italy makes it very costly leading to Frinj coffee being sold in California at $16 a cup. Climate change could reduce the area where coffee can be grown by about 50% in the tropical countries from South east Asia to African countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia, and in south America Colombia and Brazil, says Climate Institute, Washington DC based climate change experts.   ...

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Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

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Because India is still largely rural with about 65% of the population in the countryside rural poverty is a matter of huge importance. In a country of a billion people this is easily about 600-650 million people the vast majority of the world's poor. Though low inflation in agricultural produce and in agricultural wages have increased concern for rural poverty in India there are changes in multiple dimensions that have raised the quality of living in a big way. There is a major thrust in government programs directed at multiple levels for clean India, housing healthcare, cooking gas, electricity, banking, in the rural villages. About 4 million homes are built annually with government assistance and investment in rural programs has more than doubled in the last 7 years.  The National Food Security programs NFGSA guarantees purchases of rice and wheat at very low prices -set at 2 rupees per kilogram of wheat and  3 rupees per kilogram of rice or about $0.03 per kilogram.  This reduces the pressure on migration to cities making cities less inhabitable and finding it hard to cope as in countries like Indonesia, Philippines and in Africa. It gives more time for urbanization to take place in a better way as more resources and infrastructure is created for urbanization. Some states in India are about 50% urbanized with Tamilnadu (Madras or Chennai),  and Kerala (Cochin, Thiruvanathapuram) in the south and Maharashtra (Bombay or Mumbai) and Gujarat (Ahmedbad) in the north west, are at about 50% urbanization rate. The low inflation rate for agricultural wages affecting farm incomes combined with contributions by rural people to complement government contributions for housing, healthcare,  reduces the mount of money available for consumer spending in rural areas, affecting the economy. A problem in the short run, but with synergistic changes across multiple dimensions pushing the country forward across urban and rural areas. With the huge urban infrastructure spending increases creating more space for economic growth across the country. There is a general sense that for development a multi dimensional approach is needed, and a rising tide lift all boats as India urbanizes like China has done in the last 20 years. ...

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It took 75 years for a British prime minister to visit Gandhi Ashram on the banks of the Sabarmati river in Ahmedabad. George Bernard Shaw, the English writer, in a handwritten note at the Nehru museum in Allahabad after meeting Gandhi says "ask somebody 100 years hence" about Gandhi's contribution to the world. Today it is more clearer than ever. Mohandas Gandhi wrote Hind Swaraj on a ship from South Africa to London in 1910 after negotiating with the British government on behalf of Indians in South Africa. In 1915 Gandhi returned to India and used his savings to buy 110 acres of land for the ashram on the banks of the river Sabarmati in Ahmedabad. By 1923 Gandhi was questioning the expenditures of the British government that did little for the development of the country and a budget that was focused on military expenditures, in his magazine Young India, with nothing for developing the country except for railways and transport. Gandhi launched his non cooperation movement for self-rule or Swaraj from the Ashram. By 1937 elections were held and the first provincial assemblies were set up in an experiment for self-rule. In 1930 the Salt March for noncooperation in the British salt monopoly, salt seen as the common man's right, was launched from the Ashram. In 1942 the Quit India movement was launched in the middle of World War II. In 1945 after Labour party's Clement Atlee won the election in a landslide against Winston Churchill the path opened for Britain to start negotiations with Gandhi for independence. In 1947 India was free. Why 75 years for a British prime minister? Much of the period after 1950's was lost in the recovery from partition, wars on Kashmir, China's entry into Tibet and the invasion of India. The non aligned movement under Nehru and Indira Gandhi and successor governments to 2000 appearing more as voicing a grievance for being left out led to an ambivalence of the US and UK towards India, and reflected a period when India was small in economic terms and lacked the opportunity to find its place in the world as a country with the largest population in the world. Which today with with Bangladesh and Indonesia sharing a common history of Hinduism and Buddhism represents 1.6 billion people. In the Nehru home museum in Allahabad there is a hand written note by British writer George Bernard Shaw who visited India and the Nehru home. It says it would take maybe 100 years before the world realized the significance of what Gandhi had done and only at that time would the world truly understand Mr. Gandhi. Mr. Boris Johnson's effort to make up for 75 years that went by without UK prime minister's visit to Gandhi Ashram in Ahmedabad is one such moment that George Bernard Shaw had seen coming.  George Bernard Shaw's handwritten not at the Nehru Museum in Allahabad says- "What is the place of Mahatma Gandhi in political philosophy? I do not know. Ask somebody a century hence. I recollect Gandhi as only a very likeable fellow- Mahatma from India. We did not talk Mahatma shop."       G. Bernard Shaw            28/6/1947     ...

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The museum exhibit that tells a transnational story of the slave trade in the world will travel to South Africa and to Senegal. It shows what happened in Brazil with Portuguese slave trade in addition to the US. In 1793 Upper Canada Lt. Governor Simcoe passed the National Act against Slavery. In 1824 Mexico abolished slavery. In 1834 the Slavery Abolition Act abolished slavery in the British Empire and freed 800,000 slaves in the Caribbean, Canada and South America. Lincoln and the North Northeast Midwest US fought slavery in the 1850's long before 1861 and Emancipation during the Civil War in the US. The US is the only country to have fought a war with millions of soldiers to cleanse itself of the ills and sin of slavery, Lincoln was steadfast so was much of the US. It was not till 1888 that Brazil abolished slavery, the slave trade was abolished in Brazil in 1850. In Brazil Portuguese slave trade brought 5 million to its shores. 500,000 were brought to the US according to this NYT report on the museum. British pressure helped end slavery in Brazil. ...

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The country's past was a factor in the new prime minister of Thuringia, a state in Germany, resigning after a flawed election in which the FDP's head with barely 5% election support was made prime minister. This happened with support from right wing parties including odd combination of local CDU and AfD parties. Merkel on a visit to South Africa called for this to be reversed. The Die Linke Left party from post war East German roots was the leading party with 31% of the electoral vote, CDU at 22% and AfD at 23%, SPD at 8% and Greens at 5%. Because Die Linke has roots in East Germany's communist party CDU as centre right party had competed with Die Linke in the election.

The Left and the SPD had 40% of the vote and with the Greens and CDU in the centre had about 70% of the votes in Thuringia, making Merkel at the head of a CDU-SPD coalition keen to reverse the result of a FDP premier with 5%-23% support.

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About 41% of Unilever's $53 billion in sales come from developing countries, up from 22% in 1990. In 2006 developing world sales increased by 8%, sales in Europe only 1%, and sales in the USA only 2.4%. This shows the growing significance of developing countries sales to Unilever. With head offices in Rotterdam and London, Unilever was formed from a 1930 merger of a Dutch food company and a British soap company. Unilever has been selling its bar soaps and cooking oils in the Dutch and British Empires, in countries like India, Indonesia, and South Africa since the 1880's. CEO Patrick Cescau is focussed on promoting products in fast growing regions of the world. The management structure is being changed to recruit new and nurture promising managers in countries like India and South Africa. These managers are being trained in western countries to learn new marketing methods, and are being asked to come up with their own new ideas for products from scratch for developing countries with low price points. Its not about adapting existing western products, but dreaming up new ones for low income shoppers. Its introducing a product called Cubitos- miniature bouillion cubes - tailored to low income shoppers in 25 developing markets and their tastes, for as little as 2 cents. The stakes are huge. Its competitors like P&G are doing this in Mexico. Nestle is expanding in Brazil with a new plant dedicated to shoppers making less than $10 a day, and setting up a distribution network to sell to small stores in shantytowns in Latin America. Unilever estimates are that 1.2 billion consumers will buy packaged goods for the first time in 2010, mostly all in the developing world. Detergent sales are soaring in places like India, as shoppers use powders to clean their clothes, moving up from bar soaps. Estimates are that each week 40,000 people in Asia use a washing machine for the first time. ...

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South African youth interviewed in this report by Devon Maylie and Patrick McGroarty following the death of Nelson Mandela, say the African National Congress and its current leaders have failed to live up to the ideals set by Mandela.

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Reporters in this report from the Brussels Bureau chief and the White House reporter, also include bureau reporters from Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America. They all say that Kamala Harris has a firm grip on international affairs. Harris goes beyond this in 2024- a unique and special understanding of the role of women in the renewal of Western and Asian societies. Society does best when women have a large role and make significant contributions is lost on Europeans and Americans yet a core belief in Asia and in India, where it is is seen as part of the reason for collapse of Asian civilizations to Europeans in the 18th and 19th century. From Europe Chancellor Scholz of Germany says of Harris whom he knows from her attending 3 consecutive Munich Security Conferences as Biden's representative. “She is a competent and experienced politician who knows exactly what she is doing and has a very clear idea of her country’s role, of developments in the world, and of the challenges we face." France's Macron has spent hours with Harris on her 5 day visit to France to soothe French feelings as reassure them following the US deal with Australia for nuclear submarines that excluded the French. During this trip she spent time at the Pasteur Institute where her mother Shyamala Gopalan once worked. From Mexico and South Korea one has another side of Harris where she has used official trips to hold discussions with women's groups to take notes and ask questions to understand women's issues around the world. This makes her exceptional as a choice for women in 2024, not just for reproductive rights but for a person who will listen with profound interest to what they say and relate to them. There is a saying in India that prime minister Modi also cites which says society does well only when it gives women the best place to make their own unique contribution. Lost on Europeans and Americans is this idea that Asians and particularly in India, see the failure to do this as part of the collapse of Asian civilizations to European advance in the 18th and 19th century. From Seoul, South Korea-"I was most impressed when she said that a society that helps its women fulfill their dreams and pursue their professional careers without discrimination is an advanced society,” said Baik Hyun Wook, head of the Korean Medical Women’s Association. ...

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The Times correspondent in Beijing says he sees two Chinas one that is showing technological advancement in 5G, in space technologies, in information technologies, infrastructure building in big cities. The other China is in rural areas away from the big cities, in smaller towns in regions away from Beijing and Shanghai. These areas have suffered neglect and have changed little over decades, with the focus during industrialization on larger cities and the coastal areas. This is evident in the manner health services infrastructure and development of medical personnel and doctors were neglected in the rush towards building manufacturing and infrastructure of road and rail. There is a shortage of doctors and hospitals, health services are costly, and waiting lists for beds at hospitals is huge. Doctors are also not held in high esteem because the focus is on profit in the market economy that has taken over the health sector.  Education of citizenry on respecting the common welfare which is expected and normal in Europe and America has also suffered during the rush to industrialization. Efforts to ban and eliminate use of certain wild animal foods not being respected by fellow citizens can be seen in this context. This caused the SARS virus epidemic and the epidemic today from the coronavirus. Seen from this angle a slowdown in construction, infrastructure building, and a slowdown in the economy, can even be healthy, so that focus can be shifted to better health, better sanitation, and better medical infrastructure including medical human resource capabilities. Investment in public education on health and self enforcement of rules by citizenry for a better society is indispensable for progress. It is in these conditions that the challenge of the national and international emergency of the coronavirus can be seen today. It also provides an opportunity to reflect on progress so far and the needs of the future. These challenges are even tougher than repeating what one has done before such as building more and more infrastructure, as they involve building a better society through public discipline along with investment in health and education services. This provides a lesson for many Asian, Latin American and African countries in the rush to industrialization. Turning over the health sector to a market economy making services costly and distributed unevenly in the population has not worked in the U.S. for the betterment of all citizens and a healthy society. Carrying this over from U.S. to China and not learning from Europe in what Europe has done well in the less costly and broad distribution of health services for the people, is one of the poorer lessons learned. This is also true for India and South Asia, South East Asian countries in their rush towards industrialization.  ...

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All the regional groupings of countries and the post second world war institutions such as the UN, The Security Council, and the economic institutions IMF, World Bank, and the OECD, and the G-8, and the difficulty and controversy of inclusion or exclusion of emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as countries like Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa and so on. There are no easy answers but the gradual direction is for inclusion of emerging economies over time.

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A Smithsonian Museum exhibit on the slave trade and 36,000 voyages, 12 million people on the ships to Brazil and the US. It tries to tell the story in a way that will be constructive to bring people together, and also tells stories of free black men and whites who did not enslave or opposed it.

It tells a transnational story instead of a regional one- how it affected the whole world. The exhibits will travel to the Iziko Museums in Cape Town, South Africa and to the Museum of Black Civilizations in Dakar, Senegal.

Of the 12 million it is less well known that 500,000 made it to the US, 5 million made it to Brazil.

Individual stories of a woman Diarra in Mali walking hundreds of miles to a free colony in Senagal where slavery was abolished. Of a man Tahro in the Kongo kingdom brought in 1858 to the US in the Carolinas even though slave trade was banned by the US Congress in 1808.

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DW.com looks at the Dutch elections on March 15, 2017, with an increase in support for right wing anti immigration parties. A look at a combination of polls put together by DW.com shows Wilders right wing anti-immigration party having about 15% support, the Freedom and Democracy Party of prime minister Rutte having 16%, and the Labor Party coalition partner having about 9%. The Dutch party system has about 5 parties each having about 10% of the vote including a Green centre left party, and parties with special interest causes. None of the other parties is expected to join Wilders anti-immigration Freedom Party to allow it to form a government, leading to a coalition between a number of parties in parliament or inconclusive result. Wilders still will have moved the debate in the Netherlands towards emphasizing Dutch identity. Dutch prime minister Rutte has called for immigrants not accepting or merging into Dutch culture to leave. A current exhibit at the Rijke National Museum in Amsterdam on the Afrkaaner story in South Africa gives some indication of how Dutch people now view the importance of their identity- scribbled on the walls as part of the exhibit were the large letters "I am Afrikaaner" and the exhibit showed a life size Dutch girl in the Hague wearing a dress in 1904 during the Boer War with a ribbon remembering Afrikaaners interned in British concentration camps. The tone of the exhibit was to show pride in Dutch identity, with a Gallery of Honor for Dutch heroes in the 17th century golden age of Dutch explorers and navy. Even though Netherlands is not expected to leave the EU the new government will likely show a shift towards Dutch identity within EU. ...

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Toyota's goal is to remain the preeminent automobile manufacturer in emerging markets and the IMV is part of its strategy for achieving this goal. The IMV series for emerging markets, with one million in manufacturing capacity coming off a single platform to lower costs, is designed to meet local needs from a price standpoint and rough road conditions. Sales of one million off of a single platform is an achievement only Toyota will have achieved. A minivan, a sport utility vehicle and 3 pickup trucks are all made from a single chassis, with localized production since 2004. The IMV series is expected to account for 10% of the 9.58 vehicle sales goal for 2012. CEO Akio Toyoda plans to increases sales in emerging markets to 50% of total sales by 2015, up from 40% in 2011. IMV vehicles are made in 11 emerging market countries- in Argentina, India, South Africa and Thailand, and are sold as the Hilux pickup, the Fortuner SUV, and the Innova minivan. Over the years Toyota has transferred more of the design and development to emerging market countries to meet local preferences and reduce the effects of a strong yen, leaving only core components to be designed and manufactured in Japan. As it recovers from supply disruptions due to floods in Thailand and the tsunami in Japan, Toyota is planning on sales of 9.58 million in 2012, a steep climb of 21% from the 7.95 million sold in 2011....

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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Bernard Lewis's "The Arabs in History," is a short book which confirms Zakaria's point about the openness of Islamic societies before the 19th century, with some exceptions in certain periods. Most books or a quick look at Wikipedia shows us that the Renaissance in Europe in the 15th century got its boost from books by ancient Greek authors that were available in Arab societies long after they were forgotten in Europe. His point about Indonesia and India is also true to a large extent except for periods such as the one under Aurangzeb (17th c.). Muslim societies in British India (todays Pakistan and Bangladesh) experienced less social and educational reforms under the British than Hindu societies for various reasons leading to larger backwardness, illiteracy which breed extremist ideas. This is likely to change throughout North African Arab societies and South Asia in the next 50 years, especially with the modernization drive underway in India, which is likely to spread to other parts of the region. Islam as a missionary religion with force of arms spread in the 7th-9th century rapidly over Arab North Africa and parts of west Asia, and later to South Asia. Once established there were long periods of openness to ideas and books, and different cultures ( with the exception of preferences for Muslims), and a stress on commerce which inherently reduces religious vehemence, as the example of Britain shows. For this reason the current conditions in Islamic societies is more atypical than typical. A factor that has worsened it is that 19th c.-20th c. Islamic societies have put less emphasis on commerce and industry than historically seen in prosperous Islamic societies, on which more research is needed to understand why. Another factor is the impact of the interface with technologically and scientifically progressing Europe and America not becoming a learning experience for acquisition of this science and technology and making it one's own, a pattern seen in Buddhist societies of Japan in 19th c., South Korea in 20thc.,and China 21st c. Because Buddhism sprang from Hinduism or a response to Hindu ideas in India, India could be put alongside China for the 21st c. rapid assimilation of western science and technology making it one's own. When there is a violent collison between Japan and U.S. Admiral Dewey's ships, or China and British advances around 1900, the initial reaction of rejection is reversed with adoption of western technology and practices making it one's own. Similiar response in India. Islamic societies have had an extended period of rejection for reasons not fully understood even today. This is likely to generate the kind of internal debate about how to revert back to the usual mode of adoption in Islamic civilization, with the potential catalyst in India and other locations in the Middle East. The most respected German of the 19th century is Alexander Von Humboldt, a naturalist who advanced scientific knowledge, and a mentor to Charles Darwin in England, author of "Origin of the Species." Humboldt says- "There are no inferior races, we are all humans, and we are all destined to reach for and grasp liberty." That Humboldt spent most of his best years in Paris, France, which he compared to the provincialism in his native Berlin, goes to show how Humboldt, Darwin and Humboldt's friend Aime Bonpland of France, maintained close cooperation and friendship and anticipated the close cooperation in Europe since the second half of the 20th c., long before European politicians and governments grasped this. Commerce, science, travel, media and free exchange of ideas, are as favorable to progress as politics and ideology is inimical to it....

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The NYT's Adam Nossiter sends this report from Kano, a northern city of 5 million in Nigeria, before the elections for president in Nigeria in March 2015. Nigeria is still divided between the Muslim north and the Christian south. The northeast is facing an insurgency by Boko Haram Muslim militants. The two candidates are the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, a Southern Christian seeking another term, and a former military ruler and northern Muslim, Buhari Muhammad, who is now working within the country's democratic framework. The mood in the country reflects the the lack of essential needs- security lacking in the north with the Boko Haram bombings in Kano and control of areas in the northeast. The Nigerian military has failed to control the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast. Presidential elections were postponed for six weeks as the Nigerian military grappled with the deteriorating security situation. During this short period South African mercenaries hired by the Nigerian military and the forces of the governments in Chad and Niger which border the area controlled by Boko Haram have pushed the insurgents back, restoring some degree of Nigerian control. The improved security situation benefits the current government. In this report the residents of Kano describe their frustration with the lack of security, electricity, water, and education. Oil revenues have failed to benefit the vast majority of the people of Nigeria, as needs for water, electricity, roads and other infrastructure remain unaddressed six decades after independence....

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WSJ Lingling Wei's interview with Ding Xuedong, chairman of China Investment Corporation on its plans and strategies for 2015-2016, and future years. China's government formed CIC in 2007 to improve the returns on its foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2015. China Investment Corporation had largely stayed with low yields on U.S. Treasury debt till 2007. CIC has about $650 billion in assets in 2015. Its strategies provide insights into how China sees the outlook for the global economy. Ding sees opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, with a focus on the U.S. and Europe for steady cash flows. He singles out the U.S. as of particular interest as its economy rebounds. Strategies also include paring down of energy holdings. Foreign holdings are now $220 billion and have increased by 16.6% since 2009. A special unit CIC Capital was formed recently to more directly participate in managing foreign holdings with a long term view. Earlier focus of CIC on natural resources and commodities is now shifting as the commodities crisis has reduced long term prospects in that sector. The plan for the future is to shift to an allocation where financial products such as stocks and bonds are about 50%, and long term assets such as infrastructure investments, real estate and other investment take up the other 50%. At the end of 2013 equities and fixed income represented 57.4% of CIC global assets, and 28.2% were in long term assets. Ding wants to see China as the No. 2 engine for the global economy after the U.S. as No. 1. He sees the prospects for Brazil, Russia and South Africa as poor, and is optimistic about good performance from India, Mexico and Nigeria. On Japan Ding is skeptical of prime minister Abe's plans because he sees the lack of structural reforms in the efforts leading to a kind of lazy effort in his view. CIC is learning from the experience of other national investment funds and improving its in-house investment and management capabilities. Ding has many years of experience with China's Finance Ministry, the Cabinet, and the State Council. ...

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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Small shortfall in China's agricultural production can make a big difference in world food prices. A 5% shortfall in China's grain harvest can take up 20% of current global grain exports, according to an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. China's food imports are small- about 3% according to an economist at HSBC. Just a small increase in the exports as a result of drought can have a large increase in food prices. The use of good agricultural land in places like Shandong province for industry, means more of the agricultural production is being shifted to the drier north, which has water shortages. China's agricultural land is shrinking- going down by 12 million hectares since 2000 according to the government.

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In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia....