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Rising wages and rising production costs for Chinese exports of low tech products like shoes, clothing, toys, clothing, furniture, means a lot of these factories will shut down and move to lower wage countries like Vietnam and India or elsewhere. Elimination of rebates on more than 2000 export items raises cost of manufacturing 14-17% according to Guangzhou based American Chamber of Commerce in South China. And the the tough new labor law enforcing worker rights would increase manufacturing costs by 40% according to the Textile Council of Hong Kong. Additional costs would be incurred to meet tougher environmental controls and anti pollution laws and stricter enforcement. As a result of this Adidas wants its suppliers like Taiwan based Apache Footwear with 18000 employees in Guangdong to move as fast as they can to India where it opened a second factory. This process will unfold over several years till India and Vietnam bercome the new sources of cheaper goods because of the large supply of manufacturing labor for lower value added products, as it will take years to build the logistics and infrastructure for these plants in these countries. But because wages will also rise in India and the laws in India are more likely to be enforced than they were in the atmosphere in China where the Communist led government may have turned a blind eye to enforcement and worker rights in the interests of growth, the export of deflation to the west in the way of cheap Chinese products may be a thing of the past. China is doing this as a planned move it appears. Why? On the surface it makes sense that the heavily polluting factories making lower value added products like shoes, clothing, toys, furniture, would not receive rebates from te state and to improve living conditions and promote consumption at home the government woud pass tough new laws to ensure employee benefits and collective bargaining rights, and employee job security. It also reduces trde tensions at a time when the US economy will be in poor shape and jobs lost become a political issue in the 2008 presidential campaign. But there may bigger pressing concern and urgency in these moves after so many years of this being discussed and this may be that China finally may be at a moment when it is confronted with a sober fact that the US consumer is heavily in debt and may not support China's export growth model much longer and with it China faces a really significant slowdown in its growth rate from 11% to maybe half that if China does not develop its own domestic markets for growth. The old foreign investment model may not work anymore. See the link to Ireland where growth is falling off quickly. Higher wages and longer term jobs with benefits would enable a large middle class to develop from this huge manufacturing worker base especially as China moves to more value added products where even higher wages would be paid. This in turn creates a domestic market over time that would insulate China to some extent from the winds that would be blowing from a US economy suffering from a deep recession that may last several years. This may be evident in the words of the Governor of Guangdong when he says that the government is not abandoning the exporters but that selling domestically is good for the country and good for the people. Something deeper is at work here and one would expect an about turn in policy where instead of workers not receiving back wages and lax enforcement that went on freely in the last decade we would see an effort to build the kind of middle class that would provide the market for Chinese goods that would sustain growth at a more modest but sustainable pace. Which means in the short term all those workers at factories that make toys, shoes, clothing and furniture in provinces like Guangdong would be jobless. Some of these factories may move to provinces in the interior like Sichuan and Hunan provinces which may pickup employment. A report by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai written by Booz Allen says that a fifth of the companies surveyed are considering relocating outside China, and that over half of foreign manufacturers surveyed think that mainland China is losing its competitive advantage to places like Vietnam and India....

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Intel's new CEO was the CEO of Cadence Design Systems 2008-2021 which makes software for integrated circuits and systems on chips.   Coming from Malaysia and Singapore Tan got his Masters in Nuclear Engineering from MIT and founded Walden International in 1987. Making early investments in China's chip industry when China's chip industry was just starting in the 1990's, Tan's company participated in  40% of the chip industry investments in China made from the US between 2017-2021. Some of this is covered in a WSJ report from 2021 shown alongside. He served on the boards of China's Semiconductor Manufacturing and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment.  A parallel to this is Morris Chang who after degrees at MIT started the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. A period back then in which the US chip industry dependent on market forces and without hidden government subsidies was eclipsed by new ventures in first Taiwan, then South Korea and China. During a period in which technologies were freely transferred with no long term grasp of the consequences to American technological leadership, and chip industry in the US. It was allowed to decline by administrations of Bush and Obama since 2000, ceding dominance through lack of investment in manufacturing technologies. In chips and science capitalism and market forces leave American companies to the mercy of markets when government support overseas is not matched by government support in the US to create an absolutely essential level playing field.  The US then feels the lack of synergyistic energies that go from chips to other advanced industries and technologies. Textbook economics from Dartmouth or Ivy Leagues is with totally theoretical stuff about comparitive advantage no help, and created the current situation for America in chips and science where a whole industry was ceded.  ...

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Voters overwhelmingly oppose the tax increase in 2015 taking the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The Abe government plans to postpone the tax increase and call snap elections in December 2014. Two thirds of people surveyed said they did not see why new elections are needed. For prime minister Abe this is an effort to win a vote now rather than later when the opposition is weak. In 2012 elections Abe won 295 of 480 seats in the lower house of parliament. LDP party officials say even if this dropped by 20-30 seats it would be a win for Abe reaffirming that his economic policies are taking Japan in the right direction towards growth, and extending the length of his mandate. They point to growth in tourism, and the addition of 1 million new jobs. Further action to stimulate the economy would reduce unemployment further and end Japan's deflationary tendencies.

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Michael Porter who is an authority on competitiveness and national strategy, is a Professor at Harvard University. He last servedin a national economic strategy advisor capacity in 1983, as a member of the President's Commission on Industrial Competitiveness. His view is that the USA badly needs an economic strategy. And the political system of the USA discourages developing such a strategy. The political dialogue also discourages the discussion from focussing on the key aspects of a strategy and because of the ideological slant the discussion between Republicans and Democrats tends to cancel each other out leaving the important work undone. What is an economic strategy? Its thinking clearly what are the advantages or strengths America as a nation has and how best to preserve these advantages in the future? And its thinking clearly about the weaknesses, and how to address the weaknesses, and where money and other resources should be allocated and what actions need to be takento get results. As strategy is a long term thing, it requires patient and perseverent effort and allocation of resources. The strengths he goes on to list are, an unparalleled environment for starting new companies and the science and technology, and the regional universities and clusters of high tech workers and resources in different regions of the country,the educational institutions for higher education, and the committment to competition and free markets, efficient and deep capital markets, and the acceptance of the uncertainty and cost in the huge job churn (restructuring of industry that destroys millions of jobs per year with net positive job creation). The problems that have arisen with these advantages have compromised some of them. Free markets are not really free as anti-trust enforcement has been lax resulting in mergers dominating markets and weakening compeititon. Many times the "free market' talk has become rhetoric and distorted for individual purposes. And regulatory oversight has been weakened in the name of "free markets", as if the market system could be run with no government regulation at all. The weaknesses are: remaining an energy inefficient nation even as countries like Japan have become increasingly and way more energy efficient, and doing nothing about it, not having any policies to fix this and assign a big priority to it. In the area of access to education, which is critically important to national competitiveness, the US ranks poorly in the number of college graduates and in the opportunties for access to college across the middle and working classes. Says Porter, the US ranks 12th in the college or higher educational attainment for 25-34 year olds. And the US he says has made no progress in this area for 30 years. This is a disturbing trend in a economy that must have the education and skills to justify its high wages, and how will Americans compete for jobs that can be moved elsewhere in these circumstances he asks. Strategy requires honesty with ourselves in identifying and addressing the strengths to be preserved and the weaknesses to be fixed. Solutions have to go to the heart of the problem, with the patient effort needed for longer term solutions, when problems have become embedded in the system, and in the habits, culture, and way of doing things, that will produce disaster down the road. Wen it comes to spending on priority investments, Porter prefers to tax rebates the spending that goes into educational assistance and into logistical infrastructure. ...

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Japan's new prime minister told the Japanese Parliament in a policy speech, that a crisis like that in Greece was possible in Japan, if trust in national bonds was lost and the policy of public spending to lift the economy was not reversed. This speech followed the resignation of Shizuka Kamei, as banking minister. Kamei was seen as an advocate of continued public spending. He cautioned that a policy of relying heavily on issuing debt could not be sustained for long. Japan has government debt of $9.7 trillion, which is close to twice its gross national product in 2009. Much of this debt is held by the public in Japan, but analysts have cautioned that with the aging population, it is possible that people who retire will need the cash from bonds, requiring the government to turn to the debt markets for financing. Among the proposals Kan suggested is raising the 5% sales tax to pay for rising social welfare costs for an aging population. Satoshi Arai, the new national strategy minister, says the government will draft a plan by June 22 to address the public debt. He said the government would not exceed $500 billion in bond issuance for fiscal year ending March 2012....

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David Cote describes his experience as a late bloomer. He describes his experiences taking six years for college, and at 23 living with a pregnant wife in a New Hampshire tenement. With the only heat source a stove for a chilly New Hampshire winter, and not enough money to support three people, it was his wake up call. A lesson learnt from his father who operated a service station stays with him. It is about thinking twice when your pride and emotion drive you in another direction but you have to act smart instead. Decisiveness can be a bad thing, if done the wrong way- coming up with a decision without getting all or as much as possible of the facts and looking at them carefully. The bigger the decision, the bigger the consequences if you get it wrong. For this it helps to have people around a senior manager who do the same, are able to think independently and argue with you about it in a way that keeps the matter objective without it getting emotional.

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Pfizer said it will move on and end its efforts to merge with Astra Zeneca of the UK in a $120 billion deal, which has focussed on tax advantages by basing Pfizer in a lower tax location.

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Prof. Mohammad Ayoob of Michigan State University looks at the tit for tat military responses of India and Pakistan and tries to interpret the mixed signals of the Pakistan military and civilian president Imran Khan. He says Imran Khan had the difficult task of being in line with the top generals of the Pakistan military and at the same time responding to international pressures to de-escalate the crisis. Imran Khan asked India not to take the confrontation further or Pakistan would have to retaliate, and at the same time emphasized de-escalation as the goal with pressure from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and China. The nuclear doctrines of the two countries which differ from the manner in which the U.S. and Soviets operated during the Cold War, also make escalation dangerous. Prof. Mohammad points out that the military in Pakistan plays a different role in the state since it was created in 1947. With military control of nuclear weapons any danger of losing control of the state and its position in the state since 1947 could lead to reckless strategies, says Prof. Mohammad. Mr. Imran Khan had to speak in different terms to different audiences in a kind of double speak in this situation. Mr. Khan spoke in terms of development and the need for Pakistan to fund the needed infrastructure always at the back of the mind in the current situation at the outset of the crisis. Much of this was lost in the ensuing hours of the crisis. Yet this remains the dominant need in South Asia as Mr. Imran Khan faces the challenge of meeting his promises for development as much as Mr. Modi faces the challenges of development to catchup with Asian neighbors South Korea and China who have shown how this can be done. A longer memory does show China and South Korea falling behind in the fifties and sixties before making great progress in the last 3 decades by pursuing peaceful cooperation with earlier adversary Japan,  and in the case of China the U.S.  Anyone familiar with the role played by the U.S. in China's civil war, and the Japanese invasions of Korea and China, during four decades of conflict,  followed by the cooperation offered by Japan and the U.S. to first South Korea and then China can see that progress is possible and lays the foundation for development. A recent article in The Guardian reports that China now lays more concrete every 2 years than the U.S. did for the entire twentieth century. None of this would be possible had Chinese leaders in their wisdom and passion for development not pursued development first and foremost, setting aside historic wounds. ...

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In 1980 Jeb Bush 27, was looking for a place where he could make a fresh start away from the Bush name in Washington and Texas. His father was making a run for president that year. Miami with its bustling Cuban American community seemed a perfect place for Bush with his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican born wife Columba. The co-chairman of the Bush campaign in Florida was a Cuban American, Armando Codina. He set up Bush Realty, making Jeb Bush a partner with a 40% stake in the firm. In this period 1980-1992, Bush's gross income averaged 107,000 for the 6 years before the elder Bush was elected president to $1.6 million in 1990 half way during the elder Bush's term as president, according to a WSJ analysis of tax returns. This was also a period when Jeb Bush while engaging in business deals, was also running for office- first as Commerce secretary for 2 years in 1987, making a unsuccessful run for governor in 1994, and a successful run in 1998, 2002. He helped boost the Republican party in the Miami area, bringing together Republicans and the Cuban American exile community, during the anti-communist mood of the Reagan period. As Miami-Dade county Republican party chairman he helped boost voter rolls for the party, which had a 2 to 1 Democratic party advantage in earlier years. Stewart and Reinhard document the situations in which the Bush connections at the White House helped Jeb Bush in his real estate business....

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The New York Times editorial says the constitutional option looks better than the recession option, now that huge cuts in spending including Medicare and Social Security are planned in the budget talks between the Republicans and the Obama White House. The Times points to $4 trillion in defict reduction in 10 years, that is being discussed as part of a grand agreement in White House talks. It reminds the Obama White House that it is not likely to win independent voters if unemployment increases as a result. The constitutional option is for the President to to point to the 14th Amendment that the public debt cannot be questioned, in effect saying the debt limit cannot be controlled by Congress as it is today. See the piece by Krugman on the same subject in today's New York Times. Krugman asks why Obama's economic advisors have not cautioned him about the size of the cuts and the potential impact on unemployment in a fragile economy. And he points out that most of the senior economic advisors have left and it may be Obama's political team that is looking for a way to win points with independent voters for next years election....

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Michael Barnier leads the negotiating team for the EU as it begins negotiations with Britain on Brexit. He is a former foreign minister of France and former EU commissioner, giving him the necessary skills and experience. Yet as he meets with the Affairs of the European Committee in the German parliament, even Barnier is not clear how the negotiations will be conducted. Only that the issues relating to disentangling the closely interwoven economies of the EU and Britain relate to nationals of the EU and Britain in each others region, the common 20,000 legally binding regulations, and the price tag for Britain to pay of 60 billion euros. The leading German in the negotiating team is Gunther Oettinger, a former EU budget commissioner, and he tells Der Spiegel that the bill may be even higher than that number. The figure will be arrived at by taking into account the obligations of Britain and applying this to assets. The obligations include the money owed to the EU budget, share of medium term budget planning to 2020, share of pension payments to EU civil servants. The British take a different view and do not understand why they have to pay this amount when they are exiting. The British want to see their future relationship on trade and access to the EU markets discussed early, but the EU position is just the opposite, first exit negotiations to be completed by September 2018, then other discussions on trade. March 29, 2019 is the date set for Britain to be no longer a member of the EU. Yet even the sequence of issues has not been set and the sides could not be further apart than they are now. Each side looking at its situation domestically with elections in the EU in 2017, and May facing the added challenge of Scotland threatening to leave the UK. ...

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Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

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Holman Jenkins makes some good points as the auto companies in Detroit look for government rescue. He suggests dumping CAFE altogether if Congress is serious about conservation, a gas tax would be the only intellectually honest thing to do. In the light of falling gas prices in November 2008 with $1.98 a gallon in Michigan and across the country, how will demand for hybrids and the Chevy Volt at $40,000 fare? Its hard to tell but some serious thinking about energy and automobiles is in order. Congressional mandates have a tendency to have poor consequences as Holman mentions, because of the loopholes in the mandates like the fuel mileage rules that allowed fleet averages, loopholes Detroit automakers used to lead the trucks and SUV boom to coverup hidden problems for so long. Some of these had to do with the UAW's insistence on rules and benefits and things like the Jobs Banks that were obsolete in a age of globalized manufacturing and unequal playing fields with the Japanese and Koreans in mostly unuionized factories in the southern United States. Some of them with lack of effort, vision and innovation by Detroit car companies to make the fuel efficient technologies to reduce costly fuel imports, and the failure to bridge the union management divide that has been there all the time in the postwar period skewing decisions and leading to obsolete behaviours. Holman sees nationalization of the auto companies as the only possibility given the car companies history and failures, with or without bankruptcy. Even then he does not see them becoming competitive without good leadership and right policies in running the companies and honest policy at the government level, and courage to get a firm grip on reality. ...

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The Republican House health care bill AHCA  keeps some some of the more popular parts of the Affordable Care Act such as not taking pre-existing conditions to deny insurance, keeping children covered on parents insurance till age 26, and increase contributions to Health Savings accounts. It is different in that the expansion of Medicaid at 138% of poverty rate threshold is rolled back. Age is used for tax credits instead of income, hitting those approaching Medicare age harder. The maximum charged to older people is now set at  5 times compared to 3 times what young have to pay. In general the Republican bill is seen as targeting the elderly to keep premiums down. The elderly on low incomes are hit hardest. Fox News O'Reilly Show showed the host questioning House Republicans, citing the CBO estimates that elderly on low incomes may have to pay as much as $14,000 a year for insurance making it basically unaffordable, and 52 million Americans would be affected adversely. Large companies are no longer required to offer mandatory health insurance under the new bill. Conservatives from Freedom Caucus wanted to see the essential areas of benefits covered by the law limited to fewer than the ten areas in the Affordable Care Act. The ACHA Republican bill leaves to states to determine what are required essential benefits. At one point maternity benefits were to be dropped but this was changed to let states decide. As a result the bill is 33 votes short of the number needed for passing the house in March 2017.   Neither the Democrats Affordable Care Act or the Republican House bill of Speaker Ryan do much to tackle the real problem- the absolute amount and increases for health care dollars for treating each disease in the U.S. compared to European and other countries. As a result health care has become more of a partisan struggle between the two parties than a real effort by all to overcome the problems that have to be tackled. Republicans want to see premiums drop and keep the burden on the deficit down- but with the level of U.S. health care costs disproportionately high compared to Europe and the rest of the world the arithmetic is tough and ends up leaving out vulnerable groups such as the elderly on low incomes, thus making the whole proposition prone to fail. For the same reason the Democrats failed to keep premiums down with a wider safety net leading to calls for repeal of their version.   ...

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In this report November 29, 2019 Jeanna Smialek in the NYT raises the cautionary flag on the Randy Quarles  period as Fed's vice chair of supervision. The Fed and FDIC report issued April 29th 2023, puts the fault for the lax supervision of Silicon Valley Bank on the culture that sees the less regulation the better.  Smialek shows the meetings Randy Quarles had including with a former employer Davis Polk Wardwell- Republican Senators 29, Democratic Senators 17  Davis Polk  law firm 22,                     Daniel Tarullo his predecessor 0 Goldman Sachs 24, JP Morgan Chase 22                   Daniel Tarullo his predecessor had this to say about Quarles role at Fed- It is he said "A kind of low intensity deregulation, consisting of an accumulation of non-headline grabbing changes and an opaque relaxation of regulatory vigor." To which Quarles reply is- "The argument that it is a drip-by-drip erosion: the quantification of that, they can't really demonstrate any quantifiable reduction in the overall resilience of the industry." The Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank crisis could have damaged the US banking system, and the capacity of the US to make the huge needed investments in the country, without the strong action of the Biden administration. It showed the very erosion of banking supervision that Smialek pointed out in the NYT in 2019. The costs of a weakening of the banking system and the US capacity to invest in the country are borne by the American people, by workers and families in the US. Which is why the Biden administration acted quickly and decisively to limit the ripples from this crisis.       ...

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All sides joined the President at the White House, as part of his consensus building efforts, and to get aseat at the table in restructuring health care. The insurers and health care providers, including technology providers, all committed to cutting the cost of health care. New social insurance programs to cover 45 million uninsured Americans, and to make health care affordable for businesses and individuals, will be unworkable at currently projected rate of increase in health care costs of 6.2% a year for the next decade. The industry promised to reduce that by 1.5% through voluntary efforts, even though there is skepticism about whether they will deliver. The insurers are against a government sponsored health plan fearing it will drive them out of business. Insurers and health care providers are lobbying against the cuts in their Medicare payments, and insurers are fighting Obama's cuts to their private Medicare Advantage plans by a total of $176 billion over 10 years. Doctors are fighting a 21% cut in their Medicare fees scheduled to take place in January 2010. Pharmacuetical companies and makers of medical devices are concerned that new products will have to pass a cost-benefit test before being approved for coverage under Medicare. Its just that they all see the continued rise in costs as somehow unsustainable, especially in the current economic crisis, and share the feeling with business and the rest of the country that the system is broken. At the same time like the banks and bank executives, health care companies and their executives go on lobbying aggressively and doing things the old way, which raises questions about how well these systems that are broken can be put on the right path....

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Questions being addressed to get health care to the uninsured and to all Americans at an affordable level.

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Japan's prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, keeps hs majority intact and now leads a more unified party after the defection of Ichiro Ozawa with 37 members of the lower house of parliament. Ozawa left to form his own party after opposing the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015, a measure that was recently passed in the lower house of parliament.