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This report calls for more vigilance on the part of intelligence agencies in Britain even when it comes to referendums and electoral processes, that the intelligence agencies themselves do not want to affect in any way. Only six lines of text could be obtained initially from M5 the UK intelligence service on its vigilance during the EU referendum. Intelligence agencies see this as something of a "hot potato." Staying away from this, though the 55 page Intelligence and Security Committee Report now says the agencies need to be involved to protect the democratic process.

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This report in The Times shows the need to counter misinformation in parts of the media about vaccines. Inadvertently or through a poor comprehension of the data, German media reports in Handelsblatt and the Bild have stated that vaccine effectiveness for older people is 8%. Here in The Times of London, Oxford University and Astra Zeneca point out that the 8% figure is for the number of people in the trials who were given the vaccine in the age group 56-70 years. This does not refer to how effective the vaccines were in older people.  The first dose increases monoclonal antibodies for people of all ages, say Astra Zeneca and Oxford. We are now beyond trials in a sense today as Israel has vaccinated large parts of the population and the UK, India are vaccinating millions of British and Indian citizens. Israeli reports from one of the major medical centres show that the second dose increases monoclonal antibodies by multiple times and provides effective protection. As British data is available from medical research institutions from the vaccination drive in Britain, and from India, the effectiveness of the vaccines used in Britain and India will be shown more clearly. India today has used a package with near 100% compliance to tackle the virus relatively effectively by combining safety protocols (masks+ social distancing+ hygiene) with nutritional, medicinal protocols, restricted overseas flights. Cases are down to 13,000 for 1.2 billion people, with positivity rate in testing down to 1.66%. One readers comment in The Times says a lot- She says her 79 year old Irish mother was given the vaccine today in Coventry, England. She was given the Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine jab by a British Asian doctor who took the time to talk to her, and listened to her and thanked her for her service as a midwife for 40 years. That these few minutes were the happiest time in 10 months for her mother. It also showed she says the very best of this country.   ...

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Following the pandemic and the floods Pakistan is in a precarious position with its finances. The IMF estimates $25 billion in debt servicing requirements per year for the next 3 years. Pakistan's situation is similar to Argentina and Sri Lanka, countries that have gone to the IMF. International financial institutions are owed $41 billion and China $30 billion.

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Inflation in the US eased from 8.5% to 8.3% in July according to the Labor Department consumer price index. This reflected declines in gasoline costs, airfares, and slower growth in cost of groceries. Climbing housing costs are a problem. They now make up 25% of the August 2022 inflation rate, up from 20% in February.

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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

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Of Julia Chavez Rodriguez Biden says she is the organizer. "It is a little bit in her blood, Cesar Chavez is her grandfather." Julia Chavez Rodriguez is a softspoken Latina who heads the Biden Campaign with the support of the Biden team, O'Malley, Donilon, and Ricchetti. Here she recalls being in the back of meetings, going to rides in Los Angeles, getting arrested at age 9 for leafletting in New Jersey. Julia Chavez 45 years, has worked for a Colorado senator, the Obama administration, Kamal Harris campaign, and now Biden.

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Much of the cost of the Common Prosperity campaign of president Xi to increase access to healthcare, education and housing will fall on heavily indebted local governments in China, says WSJ. Today in 2022 these three education, healthcare and housing are moving beyond reach of ordinary Chinese because of rising costs and referred to as the "three big mountains." In education and housing the government has moved to improve access. Today parents like Ding Jianxiong in Beijing can give their children two extra hours of classes in school for not cost. It saves money and time compared to tutoring classes that the government is discouraging. Teachers have to work longer hours for this to happen and the cost is borne by local governments. Governments at provincial, municipal and county level finance 80%, 70%, and 60% of China's fiscal expenditures on education, healthcare and housing projects. Data from China's Finance Ministry shows local governments have built up $4 trillion in debt at end of 2020, up 20% from a year earlier, much of it to finance infrastructure projects in the last 20 years. This experts say is an underestimate with additional debt buried and camouflaged in financing vehicles, other forms of debt. In 2020 the central government restricted sales of land that were creating an overinflated housing market and driving cost of housing ever higher, depriving local governments of a principal source of revenues. Land sales are now down about 15% and falling. Experts say a new property tax could only bring in one fifth of what was derived through land sales by local governments. The result is a fundamental mismatch today between revenues and costs for local governments that has not been addressed. ...

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How seriously are the Border Crossing encounters with migrants being taken by the Biden administration compared to the Trump administration, or earlier administrations Republican and Democrats. Pew Research Center provides these 7 charts and other data. In 2021 border crossing encounters with migrants were shown as 1.6 million. Of this 27% were repeat crossings a number much lower in previous years. It had fallen to just 400,000 in 2020 as the policy of expulsion put in place by the Trump administration was continued by the Biden administration. In 2019 the border crossing encounters with migrants after three years of the Border Wall construction under president Trump were 851,000. The Biden adminstration in 2021 had 52% expulsions compared to Trump administration 66% in April 2020 after invoking public health Title 42 which Biden continued. About 33% said the Trump administration was doing a good or somewhat good job in 2019 compared to 29% for Biden in 2021. But a much lower percentage of Republicans were saying Trump was doing a bad job than the 56% of Democrats saying that for Biden today. The previous surge in 2021 was mainly from Guatemala and Central America. The current surge is from about 400,000 migrants from Venezuela where expulsion does not work as well because the US has cut off relations with the government of Mr. Maduro in Venezuela, There are 7.1 million refugees from that country in Latin America. The Trump administration would have faced similar problems with the Venezuelan surge that the Biden administration is facing. The largest jump in 2021 is in Yuma Arizona 12 fold, two fold in Tucson and San Diego, three fold in El Paso, the Del Rio and Rio Grande up 5 times.    ...

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A series of actions by Ford to cut prices, Toyota to have no price increases, and Hyundai to invest $21 billion to Make in USA and similar actions by GM, mean that except for about 300,000 imported German VW cars the car market in the US will have no price increases for average Americans. Foreign media and media in the US that is misleading say there will be price increases in the US for cars after US tariffs on imports from Japan of 24% and on EU of 20%, South Korea 25%.  NHK Japan reports that Toyota will not increase prices in the US despite DJT Liberation Day announcement of 24% tariff on Japanese imports including auto imports. Toyota will continue to make the 3.12 million cars it makes in Japan as well as the employment, of which 586,000 are exported. Toyota says it needs to cross the threshold of 3 million domestic car production to keep its technological capabilities.  Toyota will also look at ways to increase US production.  Hyundai is planning investments of $21 billion in the US from 2025 to 2028. Hyundai is likely to follow Toyota and make no price increases till it ramps up American production to Make in the USA. Ford is cutting prices of cars under its From America For America sales program. Ford has 568,000 cars in inventory. It has 60% capacity and can ramp up to make up for VW cars that are priced higher to give American buyers of German cars a cost effective option.  ...

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Argentine president Christina Kirchner asks trade unions to accept wage increases of 18% instead of 25%. Estimates of inflation in Argentina range from 20% to 25%. Official estimates of 10% inflation are highly understated.

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Research done by the WSJ shows people who sped time on fitness and are older are happier. More females than males by a wide margin. Community involvement rates are higher and faith in God is seen in people who are happier. Aaron Zitner shows the lives of 3 people including an 80 year old who ran a health clinic for 25 years who find happiness through community involvement and many projects including one that cut ten pregnancy in her county and is now writing grants to restore an old YWCA building in Cortland, N.Y.

A 77 year old civil engineer on a 7 acre farm in Chesapeake, Virgina, has good relationships, community involvement, and the same house for a generation, whose belief in God helps him be happy and find serenity in life.

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Compared with 2007 when participatory notes (p-notes), which provide anonymity for institutional investors, comprised 56% of foreign institutional investment, the p-notes comprise only 15% in 2010. This is good for India as investors are registering as institutional investors and there is less likelihood of speculative capital behaviour, as institutions think longer term. India received $18 billion in stock market investments from overseas investors in 2007, a record amount, and with $11 billion invested so far this will be exceeded in 2010.

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Comparative effectiveness research will be conducted to evaluate what is the best treatment for any ailment or disease or health problem under the $1.1 billion allocated for this in the Stimulus Plan. What are the alternative methods of treatment, what is the effectiveness of each treatment, what are the comparative costs and so on. Is it better to treat neck pain with surgery or acombination ofphysical therapy, exercize and medications? If there is ablockage of arteries in the lower leg and leg pain, how does drugs and watchful waiting compare with surgery? For chronic heart failure how does home monitoring of blood pressure and weight and exercise in addition to medications provide an alternative route as opposed to just medications. Dr Fisher of Dartmouth Medical School cites these as examples of questions that can be asked in comparitive effectiveness research. The money will be available to the Health and Human Services Department and will be used over several years. About 15 federal employees will form a council to coordinate the research and advise President Obama and Congress on how to use the money. In 2007 the US spent $2.2 trillion, or 16% of GDP, on health care, and the Congressional Budget Office says it will grow to 25% of GDP at the rate its growing by 2025 if left to its own devices. ...

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Six European Union states pass Britain, France and Germany in fully vaccinated percentages on August 5, 2021- Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Malta. Fully vaccinated are very close to 60% in these states. The fully vaccinated person in the EU gets a EU Digital Covid Certificate as shown here. The vaccination drives in Britain, France and Germany have now stalled due to the vaccine hesitant groups. To get some idea of this the second dose was given to 265,000 in France and 165,000 in UK on August 4. In the US southern states vaccination drive never got off to a good start adding to the problem of unvaccinated who are most of the people in new daily cases, leading to a new surge by August 4. France will soon overtake the UK in fully vaccinated percentage, showing that an early start as in UK is not enough. One in three in the UK in the 18-30 years age group has not taken the first shot, which is alarming. The US has a similar problem in the southern states in an aggravated form and also across the US in some form where young people have not taken up vaccination. ...

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The most remarkable gain for Harris is among the group that the Opportunity Economy does the most, the group that has the most to gain from The New Way Forward proposed by Harris. It is the 25-34 years age group where Harris as gained 12 percentage points. By effectively getting the message of Opportunity and looking to the future this gain has potential to be expanded.   Harris has gained among groups the Democrats needed to do most from lower income workers who were supporting Trump and Rural voters. Among Rural Voters 3 percentage points. Among people making less than $25K 20 percentage points, and for people making $50-$100K 3 percentage points. Among Trump 2020 voters 2 percentage points. The biggest gains is in group called Somewhat unfavorable view of Trump where Harris has gained 46 percentage points. These are also Republicans like the ones that voted for Nikki Haley and Republicans who fear the chaos of a personality focused presidency.   ...

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A camel fair in Kutch district of Gujarat, 35 kms from Bhuj. Katch Rabaris with their colorful clothing are a nomadic community in the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat in India in regions that get very little rain.

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The growing middle class in Mexico is to be seen in cities like Queretaro, far from the drug violence seen in cities on the Texas border. Even though growth has averaged only 2-3%, the number of Mexicans who see themselves as middle class in a country of over 100 million is 65%, according to a survey by pollster Jorge Buendia. The definition of middle class is a new refrigerator, a car and a couple of cellphones. Sometimes this is also aspiring to be or thinking you are middle class. A big change is the shift to small families. Astonishing as this may sound, Mexico's fertility rate has declined from 7.3 children per woman in 1960 to 2.3 today, according to the World Bank. The U.S. fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman.

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Michelle Yeoh, Ocar winner, describes her role in promoting the UN Sustainability Goals, the millions of women who are part of the 2.7 billion people she says lack digital connectivity around the world, and face barriers to information and resources in all spheres of their lives. She wants to put the spotlight on the women who are on the frontlines of crisis- who are rebuilding their communities, taking care of children and older people, and putting food on the table. Yeoh says she is 60 and she know what perseverance means, but nothing compares to what these women are doing today.

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Detail about Tata's $2500 car. What it looks like- a jelly bean small in front, larger in the back for aerodynamics, 30-35 horsepower, with bearings good for 45 mph, top speed 75 mph, trunk in front to hold a briefcase and battery, rear mounted engine with continuous variable transmission, a hollowed out steering wheel shaft, engine designed by Bosch 600 to 660 cubic centimetres 35 hp. Tata CEO, Ratan Tata, says in a interview the car will do far better on emissions than today's low end cars, and that the emissions standards were much easier to meet than the crash and safety tests, because of the lightness of the vehicle. Todays lower emissions standards in developing countries makes it easier by not having to use more expensive technologies. Electronic sourcing and internet auctions are used by Tata to a greater degree, 30-40 % of parts sourced this way compared to 10-15% by other larger carmakers. This helps meet the aggressive cost target. On the safety isssue its interesting to note that most of the people buying this car will be millions of motorcycle families and individuals (typically a couple of people can ride an Indian motorcycle). They may be safer in a light car than on a motorcycle. This has to be seen in the particular context of India. Renault-Nissan used the experience of lowcost car engineering techniques and secrets from its Logan car made in Romania and transferred it to its other models. Tata started with a clean sheet of paper, asked the quesion what they really had to have and was there some other way. It was Ratan Tata's dream to build a car in 1 lakh or 100,000 rupees or about $2500. The project had all out backing and tested Indian engineers ingenuity. The Tata effort will be studied by carmakers from around the world. Bosch does not underestimate the value of this business, as the car will target a market of hundreds of millions of people in India and China and developing countries. Ariba a supplier to Toyota, and BMW a supplier to Tata, helped Tata buy parts through electronic sourcing. China's Cherry Automobile company, another pioneer, had an Austrian firm help it design its engine for its small car. Tata worked with German company Bosch on the engine. And both must have used cutting edge technology but with a different goals and specifications to achieve unique tasks....

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Citigroup remains extraordinarily leveraged, with tangible leverage at 47 times tangible common equity. JP Morgan's is 26 times and Goldman's is 21 times. The government's two preferred shares capital injections of $45 billion does not reinforce the common stock, which fell 20% on the 14 January, 2009, and the discarding of the universal bank structure this week does not adequately address the root problem of problem mortgage related assets and excessive leverage. The government's agreeing to to take a large share of losses on $306 billion of problem assets helps, but with the leverage being so high significant problems remain. So what are the options. Reducing leverage to where J.P. Morgan Chase is would take $35 billion in common equity, something that would make the government the owner of Citibank, as Citibank's market capitalization on January 14, 2009 was $25 billion. The risk of doing this would be that other large bank stocks also fall steeply as the market prices in a similiar outcome. And there are political considerations as giving capital to banks is not popular with so little bank lending to show constituents. The capital needs of Bank of America as it completes the acquisition of Merrill further complicates the picture. But stopgap moves like additional loss sharing agreements will leave Citbank's problems still unresolved. ...

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Retail sales in China dropped sharply. Retail sales dropped from double digit increases for most of 2014-2017 to single digits in 2018- sales dropping to 8.1%. Government restrictions to prevent a housing bubble restrained housing sales, and policies to control corporate debt limited growth. Higher inflation for food and housing, have led to asharp pullback in growth of consumer spending.  Trade tensions with the U.S. have hurt consumer sentiment. The feeling that China's growth would stabilize because of its connections to the world economy is fading as consumers see persistent trade tensions with the U.S. including tariffs of upto 60% in tit for tat actions as hurting China's prospects.  The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.5% for 2018 according to government estimates, which experts say is actually much less or even half that as exporters retrench in the face of slack demand in China and lower sales to the U.S.  Rail and other infrastructure projects that were considered unsuitable are now being given approval in efforts to boost the economy. More tax cuts and expanded deficit spending are policies likely to be followed.  At foreign companies no overtime, and job cuts are commonplace especially in the auto industry. ...

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It is OK to haggle in this economy says this report in WSJ, and shows how to do it. Because retailers are increasing their profit margins significantly. Here is advice. From an expert at the University of Pennsylvania - try practicing with a script and always show respect.  An expert at Carnegie Mellon University says if you never hear no then you have not been assertive enough. Food prices are up  5-10% in the US, 15-20% in Europe. Car prices are up significantly in US, so are airline prices. Prices of all kinds of products are up out of line with anything that happened in the past.

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Australia exceeded China in total revenue for GE by $100 million, with $5.8 billion in revenues. GE now sees resource rich countries providing revenue growth of 25% in the next 2 years compared to 10-15% for China and India. The Ichthys $34 billion LNG project by Total SA and Inpex of Japan alone generated $1.1 billion in contracts for gas turbines, compressors and underwater production systems. The Gorgon project of Chevron on the northwest coast of Australia generated $1.3 billion in revenue.

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Apple shares are down 25% says this WSJ article and asks the question whether Apple's best days are past. In the fastest growing markets in Asia and Africa, Apple iPhones are beyond the reach of about 95% of the population. The number of Apple iPhones sold in India have dropped 40% in 2018 compared to 2017. Apple's market share in India has fallen from 2% to 1%, according to Canalys research firm. The $1.8 billion in Indian sales is about half of what Apple executives had hoped for when Tim Cook visited India in 2016. Some call it a rout. Tim Cook seldom mentions India now. At the center of this is Apple's reluctance to change its business model of getting the highest margins, making not a range of handsets, but a few models selling at high prices. This is the strategy that Apple has used to revive the company from near bankruptcy in 1997. Competitors including Xiaomi, the Apple for China and India, tweak their phones constantly to address local concerns for battery life, and lower prices to get market penetration. Only 24% of Indians have a smartphone and India is fastest growing market. Friction with the Modi government which cannot be favorable to Apple's plans to push a high  margin product when competitors have similar but better value packages.   In price sensitive markets of Africa and Asia most people buy phones outright and use pay as you go plans, Apple is not popular. Even in China Apple's market share is down from 12.5% in 2015 to 8% in 2017, according to Canalys. Apple is reluctant to make many models offering lower prices and to address concerns such as battery life in India. In India 39 million people will add smartphones in 2018 with 75% costing less than $250, 95% costing less than $500. In Apple's lineup the iPhone 7 costs around $550. Competitors such as Xiaomi, OnePlus, Oppo, and Vivo flooded India with smartphones costing less than $200. Unlike Apple which spurns market research these companies do extensive research work on local situation. OnePlus has focussed on battery life and gained 30% share of the premium segment to Apple's 25%. By making the devices in India these companies avoid having to pay the 20% tariff. Apple has so far not put up a new plant with the restriction that India places of single brand retailers over 51% foreign owned to buy locally 30% of manufacturing materials. The Modi government felt Apple was not focussed enough on bringing high tech jobs to India and helping local manufacturing, a perception not conducive to expansion in India where "Made in India" is the government plan. This means opening Apple stores in India is less likely now.  The turnover of Apple India executives is also increasing with 3 new CEO's 2017- 2019. Apple's strategy of targeting wealthier Indians makes it not even a fringe player in the Indian market down to 1% of the market. Just as it shrinks in the Chinese market where most customers are price sensitive and the economy is slowing.   ...

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Japan has 1300 companies that have been around for 200 years. And one construction company for 1400 years, that specialized in the restoration wood work for Buddhist temples using ancient techniques handed down from generation to generation of carpenters from 578.  Prince Shotoku in 578 used the artisans from this company to build the Shittennoji Buddhist temple in Japan. What are the secrets of their longevity, what difficulties were overcome are shown in this amazing 15 minute NHK Japan video.