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President Obama widens his lead over Romney in a WSJ-NBC poll of Sept. 2012, 7 weeks before the U.S. presidential election- 50% to 44%. He also pulls even with Romney on who can better handle the U.S. economy. Obama continues to hold his coalition of support from minorities, women, and young people intact.

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The Obama administration's Small Business Jobs Act of Sept 2010 set aside $30 billion to stimulate lending to small business. Only 7% of 7700 U.S. lenders have signed up for the program so far. The deadline to sign up to participate has been extended from March 31 to May 16, 2011, by the Treasury Department. Banks have been hesitant to sign up for various reasons: banks say they see a stigma to taking these loans, and need additional staff to handle the extra paperwork. Banks say there isn't enough demand for loans from small business, or that there is enough capital already to handle larger better collateralized borrowers with the others considered too risky anyway.

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Khedery describes the complete collapse in Sunni- Shiite relations under the Maliki regime and the Iranian influence in Iraqi politics in stark terms. It will take a near miracle, tolerance for religious faiths and opinion, and an exceptional leader, to turn things around and put the decades of misrule of Hussein and Maliki behind. Without that there can be no Iraq. Khedery goes into the misrule in a manner that American political and military leaders only talk about in a sparing manner so as not to make the entire Middle East policy look disastrous.

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After a lot of corporate advertising image of HP like Dell has become old and stodgy. How to revive the brand. Try taking a lesson from Apple. Try appealing at apersonal level, and try appealing to younger people to shake off the old image and put in a more invigorating one. About 180,000 visitors were attracted to an HP website named FingerSkilz.tv which shows closeup videos of a man's hand on a desk performing soccer tricks with a padded paper ball just bfore the 2006 World Cup. This was part of a new HP global campaign to give HP the cool image of an Apple. Content Links 1. We wanted to step away from selling computersas a commodity to telling a story in an autographical way- quote from Steve Simpson. Creative Director at Goodby, Silverstein & Partners, which is creating new ads for HP. 2. Uses personalities like Jay-Z a rap artist and Shaun White a snowboarder, and is creating European and Asian personalities for advertising in other continents. 3. the print work features prominently images of hands see as a powerful symbol of communication around the world. 4. Sponsoring a new tv show Meet or Delete on MTV in which young people compare suitors basedon the content of their hard disks. ...

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A new report, "China: 2030," by the World Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC), has major implications for the course of action taken by new Chinese leaders. The limits to China's economic model with the dominant role of state owned companies has been pointed out in the past. It has now reached a point where China must choose to move to a modified model or face the "middle income trap" of countries like Brazil and Mexico, where income levels and growth reaches a certain level and then decelerates suddenly with little warning. The report makes some major recommendations that would modify the current system. It says the state owned companies should be supervised by asset management firms focussed on commercializing these companies, and not supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The asset management firms would restrict the state owned companies on what areas they participate and sell off businesses to make it possible for private companies to compete. Zoellick says- "China needs to restrict the role of the state-owned companies, break up monopolies, diversify ownership and lower entry barriers to private firms." The state owned companies would be required to pay sharply higher dividends to the government which could then be used for social programs. Currently state owned companies invest in land which is sold by local governments for revenue helping fuel the real estate bubble. Significantly, the report had its origins when it was proposed by Mr. Zoellick, head of the World Bank, during a visit to Beijing in Sept 2010. It was supported by Li Keqiang, then vice premier, and now expected to be the new prime minister of China. The World Bank is widely respected by Chinese leaders because of its assistance during the early stages of reform in the 1980's. The DRC reports to China's State Council, a top governmental institution, and the No. 2 person at DRC, Liu He, is a senior advisor to the Politburo Standing Committee. He helped draft the current five year plan and is close to Li and Xi Jinping, the next president of China. The SASAC has opposed these ideas, especially any shift in its personnel selection of management at the state owned companies, which it shares with the Communist party's personnel department. Respected China economists say China faces large risks of a sudden sharp slowdown because the the state owned companies have largely copied foreign technology and have not generated enough technological advances, which will be needed for the next stage of growth. Lower growth rates could worsen problems in China's banking system leading to a crisis. The Conference Board, estimates China's growth at 8% for 2012, slowing to an average annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2013 to 2016. Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank, and Kwanho Shin of Korea University, say the annual growth rate will drop by at least 2 percentage points by 2015....

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WSJ's Trofimov talks to some of the 2.5 million refugees and displaced people in the sectarian conflict in Iraq in 2015. He finds a mood of despair and resignation to a permanent partition of the country following sectarian conflict between Shiites and Sunnis. The situation is being dictated by the facts on the ground as the refugees see little prospect of returning to their homes, and the different regions controlled by Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish forces with borders.

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Monthly reports are issued on bank lending by the Treasury. The report for February shows business lending is down by 24% in its dollar value from the previous month, and a similiar decline in student, auto and credit card lending. The only increase is in mortgage lending as government efforts to hold down interest rates heave led to a refinancing boom. The two largest lenders Wells Fargo and Bank of America reported a 35% jump in mortgage lending in February over January. Businesses are charged more for loans by Chase, which it says is to reflect increased risks, and Chase has sharply reduced its business lending. This is bad news for the economy, because it means businesses will continue to pull back, and some businesses will layoff employees and others may close for lack of financing. The other link to the report in the WPost about the consumers who have jobs, but are acting flat broke suggests consumption will continue to decline, which puts stresses on businesses as sales revenues for all sorts of products decline across the spectrum of the economy. With less acess to costlier financing, and declining sales, the picture of continued large job losses is being etched, and will continue to be etched as these are becoming things that will not change for a long time. Banks are insolvent or close to being insolvent, so lending is only like to change if the government takesover the banks and puses through lending at attractive rates. But it has to do this quickly, before confidence drops to a level where the demand for loans just isn't there. China is able to push lending through the banks because government controls the banks, this cannot happen in the US unless the government actually steps in to take over the insolvent banks and push through a large lending program. In this sense the Obama program while admirable and helpful to stabilize things a bit, is only part effective, and can never really restore confidence or a serious measure of economic stability because of the three pillars of progress in this situation, it can impact only two directly- foreclosure prevention, and business plus consumer lending. The third consumption is something it can only indirectly control through foreclosure prevention and lending, but which is headed down as Americans convert to a frugal lifestyle. And in these two areas of foreclosure prevention and business lending the government is failing. The fourth pillar of progress in the recovery is employment, and this is also an area the government can only indirectly control through stimulus spending on infrastructure, education and energy, but is largely influenced by foreclosure prevention- which keeps home prices from falling rapidly and overshooting and reduces household wealth- and business/consumer lending. These are ER (f) FPL (CE). Economic Recovery as a function of Foreclosure Prevention and Lending, and Consumption and Employment, where indirect control is shown by ( ). With not much in place for FPL- the only two variables government can directly control if it takes strong and immediate action before its influence on these two variables begins to diminish over time- Obama's inexperience and learning curve and failure to take bold action to get serious results on FPL, may result in admirable demeanor and rhetoric but medicore results and a struggling economy for years to come. ...

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Belgium's justice and interior ministers acknowledge the error in not taking action after being alerted by Turkish authorites of Islamic radicals suspected to be a serious terrorist threat. Turkey's president raised this issue in the media about the Belgian officials failure to act on a Turkish request to take into custody a radical arrested in Turkey for trying to enter Syria. The individual was one of two brothers who were suicide bombers in the attack at the Brussels airport and subway in March 2016.

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Harvard professor Robert Lawrence tells Tom Keene, the Obama administration has'nt paid that much attention to trade and trade agreements. He says this is unfortunate because it is important to lower barriers to trade, create fair trade, and increase U.S. exports.

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Issues relaed to tech startups driving up rents in residential neighborhoods of San Francisco, London, Berlin, Stockholm, and other cities.

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Wagoner says GM can get 37mpg on average by 2012 for its cars in response to Congressional demand for higher fuel efficiency and energy conservation. Congress is looking for European mandated levels of 50mpg by 2015, which were initially opposed by European automakers also. It becomes the condition for loans. The awfully bad unemployment numbers for November of 533,000 layoffs led to some compromise from Speaker Pelosi, so that $15 billion could come as a bridge loan to the Detroit automakers from the $25 billion allocated for the specific purpose of fuel efficiency technologies. The only way this compromise could be reached is by a complete shift by the auto executives on the issue of fuel efficiency, which is a sore point with Congress especially the way automakers in Detroit have dragged their feet on this issue over 2 decades, contributing to the jump in oil prices in 2007 and early 2008.

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Attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on Sauid Arabia's Aramco oil company installations are adding to geopolitical tensions. Houthi rebels in Yemen are supported by Iran and are in a war with a Saudi Arabia led coalition. This report says that the three year conflict has reached a point where instead of targeting Riyadh with missiles the Yemeni rebels in Sanaa are now targeting oil installations of Saudi Arabia. The rebels ousted a Said supported government in Sanaa and the the Saudis have failed to oust them from Sanaa, yet the conflict continues. The increase in geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudis is pushing up oil prices along with the collapse of Venezuela's oil industry and production. Prices reached $75 a barrel in April 2018. Damage from a Yemeni missile hit a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, a latest sign that the conflict could disrupt oil tanker traffic going towards the Suez Canal.  Trump administration plans to scuttle the Iran nuclear deal or renegotiate it are also increasing tensions. France's Macron favors renegotiating it compared to scuttling the whole deal, a point he made at the U.S. Congress this week, saying also that France will respect the nuclear deal with Iran. Tensions throughout the Middle East are now part of the rival powers Iran and Saudi Arabia and their proxy allies in the region seeking more influence. ...

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Night trains are making a comeback in Europe. Nostalgic ideas of travel from way back are when trains were the main forms of transportation. In 2017 European transport emissions were 28% above 1990 levels. The European Green Deal sees cutting these emissions as a priority for meeting climate change. Rail is critical for achieving this. For EU CO2 emissions road transport is largest contributor (73%), aviation (13%) and maritime (11%).Austria's OBB rail system is launching night sleeper trains from Vienna to Brussels and Vienna to Amsterdam.  Competition will increase in rail. Italy's Trenitalia  has applied to EU Agency for Railways (ERA) to operate in France. French SNCF and Trenitalia will enter Spain in June 2020. Critical are capital investments in rail per person for each country. Austria and Switzerland lead, and Germany is 140 euros per person target as part of the 86 billion euro plan in capital investments  for rail over the next ten years. Technical standardization is an important goal- as a stop in Aachen for Austrian railways night train from Vienna to Brussels for 30 minutes because of changing a locomotive and the train driver having to be Flemish. Freight movement by rail is another goal as it is stuck at 17% for years.  The Green Deal in transport in Europe is likely to have an impact around the world as rail makes a comeback for sustainable tourism. ...

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Russia experts Robert Nurick of the Atlantic Council, and Graham Allison of the Belfer Center of International Affairs at Harvard, see a sea change in attitudes to Russia following the interventionist policies of president Putin. The Obama administration will now focus on limiting Russian influence for the remaining two years of Obama's second term. There is a loss of faith in Putin on the part of Obama and close advisors. Russia is seen as a regional power, and the Ukraine crisis is seen as having a serious impact on the Russian economy through decline in trade, foreign investment and capital outflows. Russia is a regional power because it is not the same as the old Soviet Union, it is much smaller, with a declining population, and dependent on oil revenues, and in this sense not the Russia U,S, president Truman and Kennan faced during the Cold War. Obama advisors see Putin's actions as counterproductive for Russia, as the economy is now seen as contracting in 2014, making its actions in Syria, and in Ukraine, unwise foreign policy moves that hurts Russia's economy and future prosperity. Democratically elected leaders in Turkey and Russia with control over the media and shutting down the opposition using control of the judicial process, have shortchanged democratic ideals, and in the process concentrated powers in one leader. This creates risks of arbitrary exercize of power without the checks and balances that are built into a truly functioning democracy, with foreign policy errors eventually leading to a resolution of the conflicts created as these policies are increasingly called into question. Putin and Erdogan were reelected because of economic growth- a contractionary economy or steep declines in growth put everything at risk. A footnote on Kennan, American diplomat and linguist, is appropriate. A quick reading of Wikipedia's excellent account of Kennan will show that Kennan was in favor of a nuanced approach to Russia based on changing conditions. He observed that policies that were seen as anti-Russian actually helped Russian leaders throughout history solidify autocratic type rule, which actually hurts Russia's normal evolution and development. Normal development and evolution similiar to ways Germany and other nations left behind Prussian history and traditions for a open, free society, and in the ways even the U.S. left behind older practices such as slavery in the south and limited representation democracy. In fairness to Kennan it should be said that containment of the Cold War was more a Truman-Acheson doctrine- continued under Eisenhower by Dulles-Nitze, and under Kennedy by Rusk-McNamara- which has roots in Soviet intentions of destabilizing war ravaged western Europe starting with Greece, following similiar efforts in Eastern Europe. Truman was right in aiding Greece, but the U.S. needed to be aware of changing conditions and not take a rigid stance, and get locked into supporting client states just because they were "our guys," a lesson Kennan emphasized throughout his life. Putin and Erdogan use appeals to Russian and Turkish nationalism to improve electoral support and stifle free expression of ideas necessary for growth in any society. This also provides a way to have a discussion with our German friends on engagement and economic relationships, without the rigid outlook of a Wilsonian or Acheson-Dulles kind. ...

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For the last 4 quarters Tesla has average profit of about $70 million each quarter yet in May Tesla awarded shares worth $800 million in May to Mr. Elon Musk, CEO, as part of the pay package, says this report in the WSJ.  These stock options need to be expensed as stock based compensation expense. These expenses put Tesla's meager profits based on GAAP in jeopardy says the WSJ. A third quarter net loss of just $226 million would put Tesla in a loss situation for the past 4 quarters. This for a company that is attracting massive amounts of capital. Is this a misallocation of capital by capital markets as structured today when there are pressing needs for infrastructure, health and education from the investment behaviour that prevailed for decades before the pandemic? Are there questions about pay packages that are thousands of times the pay of average manufacturing workers at the same company consistent with the kind of society we once were and now want to build after the pandemic? The average pay at Tesla is between $70,000 to $94,000 a year for workers making the CEO pay package about a thousand times that of the average worker. At the height of the crisis at VW it was about 170 times the average worker in 2015 in Germany. ...