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Retirement and close to retirement planning for 2015 from Jonathan Clements of the WSJ.

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With surplus talent, lower longevity rates and a small industrial base economy China could work for decades with a 1950's policy of men's retirement age set at 60 years and women at 50 years. This is changing as society ages rapidly, people living longer and a large industrial base economy.

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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Sixty four years ago president Kennedy accepted the nomination of his party with these words in Los Angeles on July 15, 1960- "But I think the American people expect more from us than cries of indignation and attack. The times are too grave, the challenge too urgent, and the stakes too high--to permit the customary passions of political debate. We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle that can guide us through that darkness to a safe and sane future. As Winston Churchill said on taking office some twenty years ago: if we open a quarrel between the present and the past, we shall be in danger of losing the future.  Today our concern must be with that future. For the world is changing. The old era is ending. The old ways will not do.  Abroad, the balance of power is shifting. There are new and more terrible weapons--new and uncertain nations--new pressures of population and deprivation. One-third of the world, it has been said, may be free- -but one-third is the victim of cruel repression--and the other one- third is rocked by the pangs of poverty, hunger and envy. More energy is released by the awakening of these new nations than by the fission of the atom itself."       ...

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Which dilapidated or broken road and bridge infrastructure will be rebuilt first under president Biden's plan? The WSJ looks at the $110 billion in new funding over 5 years to do this. In addition $66 billion for rail, and $39 billion for public transit. So much needs to be done. The list goes on and on. The head of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation, Mr. Tymon, says projects that were not going to get done in 6 years will now get done in 2 years. This is the big difference today, compared to the period under president Obama when little got done. After president Trump put a big spotlight on broken American infrastructure enough of a consensus exists to get on with the work in a big way. Normally the federal government provides about 50% of the funding for state highway and bridge projects. Take Rhode Island, Biden's bill would provide $300 million a year over 5 years, over $60 million over previous yearly levels. Of Rhode Island's 777 bridges 19% are deficient or dilapidated. The longer the bridge is deficient the costlier it becomes to fix. Bad infrastructure affects industry in multiple ways, a problem ignored for too long. Some of them date back to 1903, some to 1958.  In Woonsocket Rhode Island, 5 older bridges are deficient that are vital for local companies, including textile mill, and plastics manufacturer.  One deficient bridge at Naval Station, Newport, to Quonset Business Park with 200 companies is handling steady truck traffic. These are critical bridges for manufacturing says the city's Mayor.  Another state Missouri shows how the Biden investment will change infrastructure in the states. Annual capital funding of $1 billion will go to $1.5 billion over 5 years, says the Director of Missouri's Department of Transportation. That puts within reach all $3 billion of wish list projects that were considered high priorities. ...

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Belgians are being asked to restrict contacts to only one person outside their immediate family and wear masks in shops and public transport. Daily cases average 7900 for the week of October 9-15.  Shops, museums and schools remain open. Many restaurants are closed with restrictions on restaurants.

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China is focused on getting a trade agreement with the US to continue exporting its overcapacity in manufacturing, which cannot be absorbed in it's domestic market. The EU or the US are the only destinations, but this runs into problems as both the US and EU want China to cut production overcapacity, and will no longer take in Chinese exports that hurt manufacturing communities in EU and US over 25 years since 2000.

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Brazil's currency, the Real, moved up to 1.7 per 1 US dollar, on the eve of the Presidential election in the first week of October 2010. Brazil's overnight interest rate of 10.75% attracts speculative foreign capital in the carry trade, where investors boorow cheaply in the US and Japan and invest it in Brazil. The central bank has kept these rates high to finance a current account deficit of $46 billion in 2010 -which is forecast to hit $60 billion in 2011- and to finance a high level of government spending. This spending is likely to continue with Ms Rousseff as the new President, as Rousseff plans to invest in infrastructure such as bullet trains and river dams, as well as the FIFA world cup and the Olympics. Government spending has increased by 18% so far in 2010. Exporters are affected by the artificially high value of the Brazilian real. Goldman Sachs economist, Alberto Ramos, says the real is overvalued by 55% compared to its fair value of 2.65 to 1 US dollar, based on a computer model that incorporates factors such as trade, inflation and productivity. Sao Paulo is already the most expensive city in the Americas, according to one survey....

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The U.S. and China sign Phase 1 of the trade agreement in a sign of reduction of trade tensions between the two countries. Difficult issues of state subsidies under China's state enterprise model of development, and technological competition were put off for the future. China made the deal possible by agreeing to double its purchases of agricultural products, and offering to purchase about $200 billion in American goods and services over the next two years. This gives relief to farmers, a key part of Mr.Trump's support base. This also helps achieve a key Trump and U.S. goal of cutting the U.S. trade deficit with China quickly, just as happened decades ago with Japan.  See the related article and link on how for the first time in decades China's trade surplus with the U.S. is now set on a path for permanent decline. It dropped significantly in 2019 by 12.5% even though China's imports from the U.S. dropped by 21%, based on Chinese customs data released for 2019. With China increasing these imports significantly and the U.S. holding on to tariffs of 25% on $250 billon of China's exports to the U.S. which are outside the Phase 1 agreement, the downward course is set for the next few years for correction of a dangerous trade imbalance. That imbalance was allowed to develop over successive Republican and Democratic administrations. China already has the European Union as its first leading trading partner and south east Asia as its second. China plans to not be so closely intertwined with the U.S. in trade, and yet preserve its state sponsored development model and drive to compete in technology. China's increased purchases from the U.S. of $200 billon are broken down in terms of farm products- $32 billion, manufactured goods- $80 billion, energy products- $50 billion, services $35 billion. In effect the U.S. gets its goal of cutting the unsustainable China trade surplus quickly and with certainty in 3-5 years. China uses the period to transition for less trade linkage with the U.S. yet preserving its state sponsored model of development and drive for technological advancement.   ...

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Governor Hochul of New York was only able to increase the minimum wage by 2 dollars in New York to $17, up from $15, by 2026 in New York City, Long Island and Westchester. It would go up to $17 in the rest of the state by 2027. Assembly Democrats had asked for $21 saying that Seattle and Los Angeles offered a higher minimum wage.  Future increases would be pegged to inflation.

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What the president is doing about the surge in imported goods from China that are subsidized and affect US jobs and industry. For steel president Biden plans to place an additional tariff that takes the existing 7.5% to 25%. Even though imports of Chinese steel have dropped to about 600,000 tons the imports from Mexico are high at 4.2 million tons and there is the risk that Chinese subsidized steel is coming through Mexico.

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Public pension funds are beginning to adopt renter protections to limit evictions and to limit rate increases. President Biden has sought to limit price increases for rental housing to 5%. Evictions are increasing in many cities. About 25% of renters of apartments pay over 50% of their income for housing putting a huge burden on lower income families. This is a big issue in Nevada, and in other states Arizona, and in the midwestern states.

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The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence in the UK is urging adults to use a tape measure to check that their waist circumference does not exceed half their height. Other BMI guidelines do not provide an accurate measure of body fat and other ways are needed. Waist and height measure are "simple and effective" way to know if someone is overweight, says NICE. Today a majority of people in UK between 45 and 74 years are overweight. This is true in many parts of the world.

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Germany's train drivers union GDL is in talks with Deutsche Bahn for wage increases of $606 per month with an inflation bonus, and a 35 hour week instead of 38 hour week. The Deutsche Bahn management has offered a 11% raise and inflation bonus. Last week GDL staged a warning 20 hour strike.

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The President tells the AFL-CIO representing 60 unions and 12.5 million American workers- 

"I truly believe this country is about to take off. I really believe it. We've got a fight on our hands. And my question to you is simple: Are you with me?"

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Hospitals in New York City are coping better in the current wave of coronavirus variant in December 2021 as the symptoms of patients are milder and patients are going home quicker. This report covers NYU Langone, Northwell and Mt Sinai, Presbyterian  health systems. Only about 2% of healthcare workers were lost through dismissals because of the vaccine mandate at Northwell, which is the largest health system in New York City with about two dozen hospitals. About 400 covid patients turned up on Friday Dec. 17, a fraction of the 1350 last January and of the 3500 in early spring 2021. The head of integrated operations,, Dr. John D'Angelo says Northwell has enough staff to meet projected needs. Most covid patients had underlying health problems and a quarter are vaccinated up from 10-15% a month ago. Vaccinations and two years of experience make for a different picture now, though there will be challenges and I think we're going to have to think through a bit carefully, says Dr. D'Angelo. ...

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Vice admiral Henrique Gouveia de Melo, is a former submarine commander who has instilled confidence in Portugal's vaccination drive. The drive had a faltering start in January 2021. Gouveia has reminded Portuguese people of the vaccine campaigns that came before- against measles, polio and other deadly diseases. Public memories of these campaigns including the first national vaccination plan in 1965 have helped take the fully vaccinated percentage to 83%, highest in the European Union. Israel and UK are at 61% and 66% fully vaccinated after starting much earlier.  Spain is also close to Portugal in fully vaccinated people. In Portugal the focus remained on protecting people, and vaccine skeptics played a very small role. Portugal used large scale vaccination centers in sports facilities with the help of the military and municipalities.  Gouveia brought with him a team of 30 military strategists, mathematicians and doctors to work with health ministry officials to coordinate a network of 300 vaccination centers, mostly in municipal sports stadiums, with 5000 doctors, nurses and volunteers. 154,000 jabs were given daily. He is shown in military uniform talking to people, instilling trust and confidence day after day. ...

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Donald Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee raises $64 million in July 2016 through a digital and mailing effort that helps to bring in a large number of small donations- about two thirds of it. The fund raising effort for Trump brings a total of $82 million in July, just short of the $90 million raised by Hillary Clinton that month. Much of the digital fund raising effort was made possible by efforts made by the RNC to improve its mailing lists since the last presidential campaign. Many of the Trump donations are made from the Trump website buttons of $10, $25, $50, and by an offer to match this with Trump's own personal finances. Hillary Clinton is also ramping up her fund raising. Trump now has $74 million on hand, up from $1.5 million at one point, and Hillary Clinton has $102 million. For the Trump campaign that was far less organized than the Clinton campaign, this is an effort to catch up, though this comes quite late in the campaign with only 3 months left; with advertising rates higher, and not enough time to invest in digital and campaign infrastructure.  ...

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Mitt Romney carried Georgia over president Obama 53% to 44%, and Georgia by 53% to 45%. Now these 2 states are seeing a close race between Clinton and Trump, with Democrats putting more resources into the 2 states in the hope of an upset win.

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The concerns that China was going to overtake the US and become the largest economy is a misconception of how countries have developed through industry and technology. Britain and the other countries of Europe, Germany and France, went through rapid development in the 1930's and 1960's then at some point after saturation were relatively stagnant. China for the first time in 250 years of the Industrial revolution began to develop rapidly and urbanize in the 1990's. China is at that same point of saturation and it's economy moving to relative stagnation with 4% annual growth in 2026-2030 and 2-3% annual growth beyond to 2047. India is taking place of China as parts of India (large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra with population 500 million) can achieve 15-22% annual growth in 2026-2030. A quick idea of this can be seen here in the WSJ. China as a percentage of the global economy was 18.5% in 2021 and has since declined to 16.5% of the global economy in 2025. China was three fourth of the US economy when it peaked in 2021 and has since declined in 2025 to two thirds of the size of the US economy. As a percentage of the global economy China will go down to 12% over the next 5 years as India advances, and the population of US, Canada, Australia with their continental spaces continues to grow and with it GDP growth. This is validated from the Japanese experience of peaking at becoming 18% of the world economy by 1996 and then dropping by 2006 to about 11%, 2016 to 6% and 2025 to 4%. The combined effect is to reduce the size of China's economy as a percentage of the overall global economy at a point of time in the future 2030, 2040, 2050. Japan is a good example. There are other factors in play including technology and capital access as technology and capital shifts to other parts of the world where it can be better deployed and conditions are suited for rapid development as in India/Indonesia and in the US/Canada/Australia regions of 1.6 billion people and 450 million people from China (saturation overbuilding), the Middle East (wars and mismanagement). ...

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Efforts by charity groups in Andalusia, Spain, to get supermarket chains Mercadona and Carrefour to donate food for food banks. Some of the food goes to rural laborers hard hit by the unemployment in Spain. Unemployment in the region is about 34%. Spain's overall jobless rate is at about 24.6%. More unemployed workers are running out of jobless benefits in Spain in 2012. The percentage of unemployed people in Spain receiving assistance declined to 65% from 78% in 2010.

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The Federal Reserve reports show capacity utilization in the U.S. at 76.9% in April 2011. This is less than the 81% when the recession began in 2008. It shows an increase from the 67% capacity utilization in June 2009. The capacity utilization figures are 78.1% for the chemical industry, 80.5% for the computer and electronics industries, and 74% for the auto industry in March (which dropped temporarily to 63% in April as a result of the earthquake in Japan).

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At Stuyvesant, the most selective of New York public schools the student body is 74% Asian, 19% WHite, 3% Latino, and 1% African American. Mayor Blasio of New York is using the Discovery Program to limit the entry to the program which accounts for about 5% of the overall admissions to kids from schools that have a poverty rate of 60% or higher instead of to economically disadvantaged children in the city.  Two views are presented here. One that of the New York schools chancellor, Richard Carranza who says "I just don't buy the narrative that any one ethnic group owns admissions to these schools." Mayor Blasio of New York says that only 10% of Black and Latino students get offers from the specialized high schools even though they account for nearly 70% of the city's high school population. The other view is that the state is failing in its secondary schools system because New York state tests show only 47% of the city's third through eighth graders proficient in English and 43% in Math, with the number for Black and Latino students dropping to 34% for English and 25% for Math. This means about half or two thirds of New York state's school children cannot read proficiently and the numbers decline with socioeconomic conditions. Even Mayor Blasio is working at the fringes as the problem is deeper and needs to be fixed at another level than by tweaking which segment of the economically disadvantage children should have access to the best schools such as Stuyvesant.   ...

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

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Syriza party's young leader Alexis Tsipras retains popularity even as Greece accepts the third bailout program from the EU with conditions for pension reform and tax changes. He now says some of the pension reforms were necessary even in the absence of the bailout conditions, saying it is not normal for someone to retire at age 45 or 50. He also says that he is fighting tax evasion so that the rich pay their share of taxes. The mainstream parties have lost confidence because the programs did not ensure a equitable sharing of tax and other measures, and more of the burden falling on the poor. In contrast to Portugal where the tax burden is shared more equitably, more of the burden in Greece has fallen on the poor and less affluent.