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Indian exports to US drop from $8.8 to $5.5 billion May to September drop of 37%. A trade agreement is likely and should be similar to Japan's or EU where with Japan it is now 15% and with EU it is 10%, both key allies of the US. India is also a key ally in Asia requiring the DJT administration -once it gets over Modi-DJT differences on the nuclear aspect of the India-Pakistan 48 hour conflict in 2025, and India reverts to getting oil and energy from non Russian sources as it did in 2019, and issues of agricultural exports to India- to drop this tariff of additional 25% for Russian oil and drop the basic tariff of 25% to 15% as the US did with Japan. At 15% Japan and India will still be able to compete with China's 47% (dropped from 57%) to export to the US.  The result can be positive for India as it improves it's cost effectiveness to export to the US and EU, with rapid investment to improve logistics, and streamlining import of technologies and machinery to rapidly cut costs of production. ...

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Nokia announced a loss of 929 million euros for the first quarter of 2012. Sales declined from 10.4 billon euros to 7.4 billion euros in the same quarter prior year. The only bright spot for the company is that the Lumia 900 sold throught AT&T has made a successful launch in the U.S. Nokia CEO Elop says the phone is sold out in stores in the U.S. Lumia sales were 2 million in the 1st quarter of 2012, at an average price of 220 euros ($290). Nokia's strategy now is to bring the Lumia line including the lower end Luma 610 phone to Asian markets by June- to China, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Nokia's biggest problem is the older Symbian phones, which consumers are passing by and which now have to be discounted rapidly or replaced quickly with the Lumia line. The other related problem is falling margins on basic phones as Chinese competitors discount heavily- basic Nokia phone prices fell 18% to 33 euros ($43) from 40 euros or($52) the prior year. The speed in the drop in business for mobile phones can be guaged from the sales decline of 40% in the 1st quarter from $9.3 billion to $5.6 billion. Things are made worse by the 772 million euro ($1 billion) charge taken for Nokia Siemens Networks, a network joint venture with Siemens. Sales for Nokia Siemens fell 7% in the first quarter to $3.8 billion. Nokia Siemens has 53 contracts to build new mobile networks with Long Term Evolution Technology more than competitors Ericsson and Huawei, according to Nokia Siemens. Everything now depends on the speed with which Nokia can move to its Lumia line across the board, especially in China....

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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

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Fears that India may be falling behind China, Mexico and Brazil in healthcare for the people. A planned budget increase was never implemented. Today the Indian government spends only $20 billion on healthcare for a population of over 1 billion people. Annual spending on healthcare is about 1.4% of GDP. Now the Indian government is planning to increase this to 2.5% of GDP. One senior health official Amarjeet Sinha, says other emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, now have better public health indicators than India. In 1990 India's public health indicators were similiar to those countries. Another serious problem in India is malnutrition with an estimated 4 of 10 children malnourished. Underinvestment in healthcare is a significant problem as needs grow but there is a shortage of resources and trained healthcare personnel. Arvind Singhal, chairman of consutancy Technopak, says India needs an additional 1 million doctors and 2.5 million nurses to meet the needs of the current level of the Indian population. To do this 600 new medical colleges and 1,500 nursing colleges are needed. The child care advocacy group Save the Children UK, points out that just to meet India's committment to reduce the infant mortality rate by two thirds of the current level by 2015- to meet India's commitment to the UN Millenium Development Goals- India will need 2.6 million additional trained health workers. This shortage is most acutely felt in rural areas, especially in the large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar....

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Japan has coped with its long period of low growth by increasing the temp workforce. Loss of nontraditional workers jobs was 158,000 between October and mid February and accounted for much of the 220,000 jobs lost in the October to January period, according to the Japanese Labor Ministry. During the years that EU countries liberalized their labor markets allowing the hiring of temporary workers. During the 1990's Spain, Italy, Greece began allowing the hiring of temporary workers and workers on shortterm contracts. Germany allowed temporary workers and loosened labor laws earlier in this decade. By 2007 17% of the workers in the EU countries which share the euro were temporary workers. Many of these are young people or immigrants. But the labor laws in the EU for permanent employees remained the same and the worker protections were in place, including unemployment benefits and severance. This helped bring the EU unemployment rate down to 7.2% in 2007 during the upturn years. Now this whole process is going into reverse with the young and immigrants hit hardest. In Germany it costs 11,927 euros to layoff a permanent employee according to the Cologne Institure of Economic Research, and zero for laying off a shortterm employee. Now as the economy deteriorates the shortterm workers are being laid off first in large numbers. BMW has laid off 5000 shortterm workers. And short term contracts usually last only 4.7 months on average in Germany, about 12% of temp workers in Germany get hired as permanent workers. To get full unemployment benefits the workers have to have worked steadily for at least 1 year in Germany. ...

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Krugman points to the economic muddle that China is getting itself into. He says one way of looking at what is happening now with high inflation is that inflation is the market's way of undoing the currency manipulation that China has engaged in. By following aweak currency policy to protect export interests China has created an artificially high trade surplus. But this is now turning into a lose-lose proposition for both China and the US as market forces push wages and prices up, whittling away at any competitive advantage of China's weak currency policy. He says some estimates he has seen show that Chinese undervaluation could be gone in two or three years. Chinese consumers are asked to accept interest on savings limited to 2.75% and below inflation, with the spread designed to help banks earn their way out of bad loans made during the stimulus lending binge of 2009-2010. What is happening is a massive allocation of capital away from consumers to lending for state owned companies that have created overcapacity in many industries, and use part of this capital to engage in real estate speculation. Krugman says China may be on its way to some kind of crisis with collateral damage to the rest of the world as it is a major importer of commodities from Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and a major importer of high tech goods from Germany and the USA....

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Frank Rich says the bankruptcy trustee in the Madoff case may do what the Financial Inquiry Commission failed to do, and what the Pecora Senate investigation of 1933 accomplished. Michael Lewis, author of "The Big Short," said of the efforts to prevent a future crisis on MSNBC: "I feel like we're living in a house built on sand because we did'nt reform the system." By not holding people accountable their is risk of the same behaviours recurring. By saying everything went wrong in general Shakespearean terms the Financial Inquiry Commission report did not accomplish the purpose of its investigation.

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Lenovo's acquisition of Motorola Mobility for $2.91 billion. After Google acquired Motorola Mobility, Lenovo's Mr Yang invited Mr. Schmidt of Google to dinner and told him Lenovo would be interested in acquiring the smartphone maker if Google decided it did not want to be in the hardware business. Google sees Lenovo as the company which can make smartphones at lower prices to reach a larger number of users. It also offsets the price rigidities in the market with Samsung controlling a large market share and reaping a larger share of the profits compared to other firms.

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Panasonic's renewed focus on profitability. Panasonic's new 3 year business plan under CEO Tsuga focusses on profitability. Tsuga says "the first thing we have to do under this business plan is to get rid of the loss making businesses." Business units will be reorganized so that each business unit will do the product planning, production and sales, as opposed to the current organization which splits units by functional areas such as development and production. The changes are likely to bring the units down to 49 from 88. In a sign of the changes Panasonic set new profit targets but no revenue targets.

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The analyst is a Ms Chiesii who was arrested with her boss Mr Kurland. Mr Kurland was chief executive of New Castle Partners, which was part of Bear Stearns before it was spun off by JP Morgan Chase. Ms Chiesi was particularly aggressive about getting tips about Akamai Technologies and AMD and loves to use four letter words. In one conversation with Kurland she says- "Unless you were on the phone with the AMD executive and had an IBM executive at your house last night, who the f- would be buying it honestly?" Kurland started at Bear Stearns in 1991, Chiesi in 1997.

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Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Governor sees an economy that will have zero growth in the second half and he does not seee price pressures abating. He says the odds are even that inflation turns out to be a one-off event or becomes persistent, but his sense is that it will be persistent. Fisher has voted for rate increase at Fed meetings. For him the key issue is whether the increase in food and energy prices will be transient or persist, and his concern has been that expectations of future price increases will become embedded in the economy.

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Useful insights for the auto industry. Its not just your big hits that matter. You have to follow up on the big hits quickly, as Motorola could not. Life of a cellphone is 12-18 months, for a super duper car model how much time before it loses lustre and becomes like chewing gum with all the taste gone out of it. Or conditions change, as the automobile is coupled to gasoline, so its 2 products that you have to think of the hardware and the juice that powers it. Companies need lower end products such as Nokia's N series, lower cost phones for emerging markets. You see this happening in autos as attention shifts to emerging markets because this is where future sales are and this is where manufacturing is headed. Auto parts costs being by some estimates 5 times costlier to make in USA than in Asia. And there is always the surprise that the competitor's better product decisions can spring on you or their steady perseverance and innovation- the Prius in autos and the Apple iPhone in cellphones and music. The trends and the economic environment are constantly changing. The Tata Nano is also a result of a vision, decisions and perseverance and its another of the surprises with a longer term impact. The economic conditions can change an entire market as is seen in the U.S. automobile market....

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This report in WSJ says Fox News took issue with Tucker Carlson host of the FNN network prime time TV show for remarks he made about colleagues on the network.  Before FNN Carlson worked for MSNBC,CNN and Arkansas Gazette newspaper. He was co-host of CNN show "Crossfire." Mr. Carlson is paid $20 million a year. Since the days of president Lincoln and the Douglas debates political debate has created new audiences. In their current form they bring advertising revenues for networks on the right and the left and skilled practitioners of the art are in demand at television networks. What is new is that this discourse has gradually deteriorated to where it has broken down in some ways.

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What is the Pirates party in European Union countries? It started as a party of tech savy young people about 15 years ago who were fed up with the mainstream parties. For the first time Pirates and Mayors party in Czech Republic will form a coalition government in 2021. Ivan Bartos head of the Pirates party says the party is "a new wind, no oligarch or big sponsors and completely transparent." It is in a way a party like the Greens, away from established parties, with younger people who are tech savy and want openness in society. In the Czech election the party was able in alliance with other centrist parties to defeat a scandal ridden minority government of billionaire Babis that opposed EU climate change policies.

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Stranded assets is likely to become a major issue for automobile companies switching to electric vehicles, power companies switching away from coal, and oil and gas companies that are moving to renewables. Close to $20 trillion such assets now face writedowns, as shown in this report in the WSJ. These are assets that are retired early or assets that can no longer be used because of high carbon emissions and the switch to new technologies. A recent US Congressional session with oil company executives showed the heads of BP, Shell, Exxon, and Chevron, answering questions on how quickly they were preparing for the switch to renewable energy. The COP26 Glasgow conference has created new urgency at companies such as BP and Shell in Europe.

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Dvid Attenborough, the naturalist and broadcaster, says he has campaign for years against plastic pollution and no one paid attention. Now he says people are fed up with politics of Brexit and are showing great interest in fighting single use plastic. He says the people in the U.S. are acting even though the president Mr. Trump has taken action for withdrawing from the Paris climate change agreement. He sees things can change quickly if there is a new president and policy changes. 

He is heartened by the way people have received the movie Blue Planet 2 and the action politicians and ordinary people are taking. He thanks primary school teachers for all the work they are doing and the enthusiasm shown.

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The failure to set clear and consistent guidelines by the U.S. Centres for Disease Control that the public can easily grasp and follow without retractions or errors has affected how the public responded in the pandemic. Here the CDC is shown to have first put forward a draft version on the role of aerosol and respiratory droplets in the air for spreading coronavirus infections and then pulled it back followed by putting it back on last week.

Much of it is about being definitive and 100% certain instead of focussing on the steps that are clearly going to reduce the spread of the pandemic and appealing to the good common sense of the public about following reasonable precautions of social distancing, masks, ventilation, staying away from gatherings.

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The large majority of vaccine disinformation has been traced to just 12 persons, according to a report cited by the White House. This report is from the Center for Countering Digital Hate. They have a combined following of 59 million on social media with Facebook being the largest. Of 812,000 Facebook posts looked at by CCDH 65% came from these 12 persons.

On Facebook alone 73% of all anti-vaccine content comes from these 12 persons. These 12 include a religious zealot, a wellness blogger, some physicians who have taken on pseudoscience, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Only 3 have been removed from one platform of the 12 persons. US president Biden is critical of the role of social media in this pandemic.

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Stephanie Clifford of the NYT provides this exceptional profile of a low profile prosecutor in action on cases ranging from civil rights to organized crime and terrorism. Clifford describes the calm and rigorous style of Loretta Lynch as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York as she handled the case of a Haitian immigrant and the New York Police in 1997, rarely bringing up race and focussing on justice and fairness. Other prosecutions included Pedro Espada, a former Democratic New York state senator from the Bronx, and William Boyland Jr., a Democratic assemblyman from Brooklyn, gang and Mafia cases, and terrorism. Her style is to let others take the spotlight including answering questions at news conferences, getting the job done by involving other colleagues and co-workers in a case.

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Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

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Even today mask use can vary widely in the U.S. as seen in this map from the NYT. After repeated surge across the U.S. from the northeast to the south and west mask use has increased in the U.S. Texas has made it mandatory and president Trump wore a mask at Walter Reed Army hospital. Ypu.gov and other surveys show mask use as high as 80%, not universal as health agencies want to see, higher than Canada, Finland or Denmark.

Other factors such as gatherings at beaches, restaurant and bars, and earlier sport stadiums gatherings are additional factors for a surge. Young people's cooperation has lagged behind accounting for about 50% of cases in some southern states recently being among young people.

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Apple Music is about to overtake Spotify in the U.S. with its subscriber account base growing at 5% a month compared to 2% for Spotify. Apple Music comes in preloaded on Apple devices giving it an advantage.  Globally Spotify has twice the account subscriber base of Apple Music. Other players in the field are Pandora, Amazon and Google's You Tube for streaming music. Streaming users play a small monthly fee or put up with ads. Yet the industry of streaming music is yet to be profitable this report points out. Apple Music and Spotify both exaggerate the size of their user base. Spotify charges $9.99 a month for streaming music service, yet even after having a large subscriber base in millions it is still not making a profit. Spotify and Apple Music both offer student plans for $4.99 a month, and a family plan for 6 persons at $14.99 a month. In the free tier or initial free subscriptions period Apple Music is way ahead of Spotify, the Home Pod device adds to Apple's advantage. ...

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Britain's prime minister survives a vote in parliament called by the camp in her part that opposes a hard Brexit that calls for Britain severing connections with the EU. After she caved in to some demands from the camp that supports a hard Brexit on the issue of EU customs union, others with different views in her party called for a vote in parliament through an amendment. Theresa May survived this vote by just 6 votes following a vote a few days before called by the Brexit hard liner camp in her party which she survived. Britain's electoral Commission ruled that the Vote Leave campaign had violated the law by exceeding the spending limit of 7 million pounds by funnelling 675,000 pounds to BeLeave a pro Brexit youth group. There is now no certainty that a Brexit deal can make it through parliament if it is reached with the EU. A fresh election, or a second referendum on Brexit or terms of Brexit are likely if May's government collapses in 2018.  ...

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Kristof reminds readers of the NYT that the more that the British acted to suppress the American insurgents, the more that fueled the insurgents fighting the British. After all the land they were on was theirs they felt and not Britain's. The same is true for the $0 million Pastuns on both sides of the border, the Afghan side and the Pakistan side. He says Americans are not sensitive enough to nationalism abroad. The war in Afghanistan is costing $60 billion ayear. Adding another 40,000 troops will cost $10 billion, enough to send 2 million disadvantaged children to a solid preschool, or could be as high as $40 billion extra, which over 10 years would pay for almost half of health care reform. Kristof doesn't see the 40,000 troops doing enough to change the picture much, except increasing support for Taliban as the American footprint grows as foreign occupiers. He mentions that standard counterinsurgency ratios of troops to civilians would require 650,000 troops including Afghans.

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Does it take a unique person or a vison thats all your own to go out and market at both ends of the price spectrum. Vera Wang best known for a high end bridal clothing is now introducing a line of clothing at Kohls with her name on it. The Kohl's line is not about age she says its about comfort, ease and being able to make it part of your own wardrobe with your own flair to it so it could be herself or her daughters or a working mother. She likes to reach out to more women and do something for women's clothing in that area. She also believes that young women have a better sense of clothing today than their mothers and have a better sense of fashion and casual fashion. For the kind of woman she has in mind confident and independent, active enjoys life, but not showy, abit or art, element of surprise, some unique detail, something she finds in a Scottish model Stella tenant. This description also tells you something about today's younger women. Some of this can apply to marketing other products for younger people and younger women, such as the insides of cars, or the aesthetics of household and other products?...