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The British pound was trading at $1.50 just before voting to leave the EU in June 2016. Since then years of wrangling on Brexit led to uncertainty and the pound dropping to $1.22. The decisive win of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in 2019 led to removing much of the uncertainty, and the British pound recovered to $1.34 on prediction of Johnson's win. The big win makes it certain that Britain can leave the EU by Jan 31st 2020.

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Workers in the gig-economy at companies such as Uber and Lyft are protected under a new California law AB5 that requires them to be classified as employees with minimum wage, sick pay and holidays. It also requires health care for workers with more than 15 work hours a week. This law is now being challenged in court by these companies. The challenge requires 623,000 signatures. The companies are also using the challenge as a way to protect from lawsuits.

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British prime minister Boris Johnson is looking at options to increase investment by Britain in domestic telecom companies so that they can  compete in the 5G technology market. The idea is to create a new international alliance of partners including South Korea, the U.S., India. This is part of a wider effort to regain leadership in this area for an alliance of western companies partnering with some Asian countries. It is also intended to reduce reliance on Huawei.

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This article by Michael Shifter, who heads the Inter American Dialogue, says it is important there be an amnesty for the military officers so that Venezuela can make a peaceful transition with an interim government that meets the international community's call for new credible elections. He says the head of the National Assembly who heads the interim government has taken the right steps to ask for an amnesty for the military from the National Assembly.

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Transmission for people visiting other households is a big part of the transmission problem in northern England in July. Lockdown for these visits is being reinstated as cases rise. This is seen as a bigger problem than going to work so that restrictions have to be placed in a way that restricts the kind of activity that causes transmission, says Matt Hancock, health secretary. People from different households are now barred from meeting indoors in the Manchester area. 

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BHP Billiton was known as Broken Hill Proprietary in the 1990's. The largest Australian mining company, it was based in Melbourne and simply known as the Big Australian. It had huge losses in that period - $3 billion in 1998-1999. The turnaround at BHP Billiton comes as a remarkable turnaround for the whole mining sector. BHP made $6.5 billion in profit in the year ending June 2005. Its not just rising Chinese demand that has made this possible. Billiton has taken steps to avoid past boom bust cycles in mining by taking a conservative approach to investing in new mines that might create an oversupply in the market. The company is run buy a banker. CEO Charles Goodyear avoids taking on large risky projects and has announced plans to return $2 billion to shareholders in stock buybacks. Even with this discipline compared to the past, some mining analysts believe the boom bust cycle will occur over time. HP has $10 billion worth of projects in different stages of development. One advantage the mining companies enjoy is the concentration of mining in a few companies- BHP, Rio Tinto, Xstrata PLC. This makes it possible to price aggressively for the nickel, copper, iron ore, and other metals. A 72% price increase was negotiated with steelmakers in 2005. Another part of the transformation is the use of risk-analysis tools. BHP uses "Monte Carlo analysis" to check all potential outcomes once a range of parameters- commodity prices, currency vales, interest rate scenarios- are entered that affect financial performance of a new mine or a new investment. Goodyear came in as CFO under a new team led by Paul Anderson, a former executive of Duke Energy Corporation, after the huge losses in failed copper mining investments in the late 1990's. Even with the recent success and the careful investing discipline there is a sense that things could change quickly if rising demand slows in China and other developing countries. And in that situation this discipline may prove insufficient and the models may only be good as the assumptions and information entered....

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Connecting the National Health Service in UK (NHS) to Nature would take NHS to a new level by bringing mental health through nature walks to many people who need it during the pandemic. Damian Carrington of The Guardian looks at social prescribing where people are referred to nature projects, a trend that is growing in the UK and adding a highly valuable component of health to NHS. This is called Green Social Prescribing. 

There is significant support for the idea of Nature walks adding to wellbeing. A 2019 study cited here shows weekly 2 hour dose of nature improved health and wellbeing.

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Kyushu Electric Power's Sendai Nuclear Plant is the first nuclear plant to be brought back into operation on August 10, 2015, as Japan brings back nuclear plants with strict safety standards under the Abe administration. Household electric bills had gone up by 25% with nuclear plants shut down.

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The 2009 budget of the Obama government has some optimistic assumptions built into it for the deficits in future years. For 2009 the GDP declines by 1.2%, for 2010 the GDP growth is 3.2%. With these assumptions its possible to bring the $1.75 trillion deficit in 2009 to less than $600 billion by 2012, and getting to that point requires GDP to rise by 4% a year by then. This is assuming the growth quickly returns to the growth rates of the 1990's. In one area the administrations' forecasts are more optimistic than the Fed's and may turn out to be too optimistic. The administration's assumption is for unemployment to average 7.9% in 2010 when it may be close to 9% or higher. For example Goldman Sachs economists expect the unemployment rate to be at 9.5% by late 2010. And Goldm,an's growth rate for 2010 is just 1.3%, and that also may prove to be optimistic whereas the budget assumes 3.2%. What all this means that money has to be spent on the priorities outlined by the President, but the most buck for the money has to be obtained because further outlays will be needed in future years. This is a very important point, and a lot of checks and transparency and careful monitoring of projects has to be put in place throughout 2009....

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U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia increased by about 20% in 2012, increasing dependence on the volatile Middle East region.

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U.S. health insurance company WellPoint Inc. will offer higher payments to primary care physicians. This is part of new strategy to reduce emergency room visits and costs after deterioration in a patients condition by relying on primary care physicians for better care at the outset. Payments to primary care physicians will be increased by 10%, with higher payments when the results show better quality and preventive care. WellPoint has a network of 100,000 primary care doctors. Physicians who meet certain goals such as lowering the overall cost of a patient's health care costs will be given an incentive of 20-30% of the savings realized. The new effort will add 1-2 percentage points to the 6-8% of the $100 billion that Wellpoint pays for claims processed each year. WellPoint's management sees a reduction in medical costs of about 20% by 2015 as a result of such efforts.

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Useful tips as people go back to the office, from a number of experts in the WSJ. Walking, biking to work or driving to work is safest. Use of public transit requires masks, sanitizer, frequent hand washing afterwards and caution. Surfaces such as elevator buttons, doorknobs and printer or device buttons should be disinfected regularly- use a tissue paper or paper towel to handle them and then use hand sanitizer. Meetings should be done with social distancing of six feet distance, and reduced number of participants. All should wear masks. Taking meetings outside where airflow is more is a good idea. Reduce number of meetings, as the meetings have not been very productive ways to get work done and many workplaces already have too many meetings. Avoid lunch dates outside, even in the open, with colleagues. A better way is to eat on your own and then take a masked or socially distanced walk with a colleague afterwards, say experts. High touch communal items should be replaced in offices such as coffeepots water coolers, and bulk snacks and this should be done by the companies as they prepare the new layout and arrangements.   ...

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Following the defeat of chancellor Merkel's CDU party in the 2016 Berlin state election, getting just 17.6% of the vote, chancellor Merkel looked reflective and a bit emotional about the result. She urged Germans to understand that this decision on refugees will benefit Germany in the long run. She said she would work to regain the people's trust. Looking back she said-"If I could, I would turn back time by many, many years to better prepare myself and the whole German government for the situation that reached us unprepared in late summer 2015." She says the decision was "absolutely right" to admit the refugees from war torn Syria, but accepted that "it led to a time when we did not have enough control over the situation." Both the CDU and the SPD, the main parties, lost about 6-7 percentage points each in votes cast. Gainers were the Free Democratic Party with 6.7% of the vote, who gained votes from the CDU. For the SPD votes were lost to the Greens and the left party Die Linke each party winning over 15% of votes.  Both the CDU and the SPD had candidates who did not attract voter interest. A popular former Mayor of Berlin from the SPD did not run in this election. The anti-immigrant AfD party gained  about 14% of votes.  ...

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This WSJ report shows how the debt ceiling negotiation were conducted and the process that made it possible to reach an agreement since the State of the Union address by president Biden on February 7, 2023. It started with Biden getting unanimity right on the floor of Congress during his speech about protecting Medicare and Social Security. The Republican strategy was to pass the legislation on spending that did not specify where cuts were to be made yet used 2022 spending levels with a 1% increase. The deal was to be for three years and passed the spending bill with an increase inthe debt ceiling. Till that time the Democrats decided to not enter negotiations.  Biden and McCarthy then had to choose who would represent their side in the long negotiation process that lay ahead till June 5. Progressive Democrats called for invoking the 14th Amendment that allows the government to continue functioning and pay its bills. Biden chose not to take that route. Respect for the other side, a prepared script are an important point in negotiations. To get results something even more important is essential flexibility and a plan, Plan B. Trust began to develop between McCarthy and Biden. Biden and McCarthy did not any time engage in acrimonious description of the other side. At one point when Biden was in Hiroshima for the G7 meetings Ricchetti on the Biden side and Graves on the Republican side began to feel the frustration. Biden decided to fly home early from Hiroshima. He was constantly in touch with his negotiators Steve Ricchetti, a trusted aide, and a cabinet official the Budget Director Shalanda Young. Graves a long time trusted adviser of McCarthy headed the negotiations for McCarthy.  Shalanda Young and Garrett Graves are both from Louisiana and Graves says he used to work out with Young's dad in the same area. This had a positive effect. It also reduced the tensions in the negotiations so that it could be said this was the calmest negotiation from either side that has been seen in the US  for a long time and bodes well for America's future and for its people, far beyond any concessions made by either party.  Biden made clear at the outset what he could accept without leaving it hidden- he would agree to some work requirements, he would not agree to work requirements for Medicaid. Others in the Democratic party conveyed how distraught they were with efforts to impose stringent requirements for federal food aid during a cost of living crisis when the Republican positions ruled out any new taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In the end Republicans agreed to keep spending limits for 2023 for two more years into 2025 when they would be increased by 1%. Democrats offered to cut (Income Tax) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) spending to increase IRS staffing from $80 billion to $70 billion. Biden said "nobody got everything they wanted." It would have to be passed in Congress with the support of moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, with members holding extreme positions among Republicans and Democrats opposing. The two parties coming together after a long time to meet the real challenges ahead for the American people. ...

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This Washington Post editorial says Obama and the politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, want something for nothing. The Ryan budget, Obama's health care plan, all require paying for it with higher taxes, but the mention of the word "tax" is the last word any of the politicians will say. These comments come as the U.S. Supreme Court considers the mandate that young Americans and others be forced to pay for health care along with the rest, as required by the health care mandate, with the idea of keeping costs down. The idea of getting something for nothing was also emphasized in an op-ed in the WSJ, March 29, 2012, by Mayor Bloomberg of New York City, where he called for letting the Bush tax cuts expire for all income groups, and an up or down vote in Congress on the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, as part of a two step plan.

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A large number of utility companies ( most of the big companies like Duke, AEP, Consolidated Edison, DTE, Edison, PG&E and so on) in the USA are working with General Motors to come up with the whole system for putting electric cars on the road and to work out all the issues relating to electricity recharging of the batteries in the cars. Even though coal is used to generate this electricity it reduces overall emissions as the electric plants burn coal with lower emisssions than the internal combustion engine burns gasoline. Charging the cars at night might be attractive as the utilities might find that this is more efficient for them as they may be able to increase production at power plants with extra capacity.

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Attorney General nominee William Barr sayshe will not interfere with the Mueller Russia investigation, calling it "vitally important" that this investigation be completed. This happens as there is increased scrutiny of President Trump's interactions with Russia. This follows a report that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had opened a counter intelligence probe into Mr. Trump in 2017, as questions were raised about the abruptness of the firing of FBI Director Comey.  Mr. Barr defended a memo he had written critical of Mr. Mueller for his theory of obstruction of justice by Mr. Trump. He said he considers that a minor aspect of Special Counsel Mueller's probe. Barr says the memo did not question the special counsel's core investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mr. Barr was Attorney General under George H.W. Bush and would follow his earlier prioritizing of crime fighting and immigration policies. He needs some support from Democrats to be nominated, and to win this support he reiterated that "where judgements are to be made by me, I will make those judgements solely on the law."  ...

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It is important to understand the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because of the many misleading headlines. The new tariffs placed by the Trump administration on a list of 1300 imported products from China are for about $50 billion and targeted at high tech products in flat screen televisions, medical devices, aircraft parts and batteries, other high tech products that China hopes to get an edge over the U.S. under its "Made in China 2025" plan. China still enjoys a huge surplus with the U.S. This plan is intended to better manage the next phase of the competition with China as China seeks to get an edge in high tech products. The steel tariffs were targeted at China's buildup of surplus steel capacity in the last 2 decades, with little to do with the next phase of the competition globally between the U.S., the E.U. and China. This is a carefully planned move showing American resolve to be competitive in the high tech industries of the future. It will be followed by a comment period during which the administration will get feedback on product choices. A public hearing is set for May 15 in Washington, and companies can file objections till May 22. ...

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A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll conducted in September 2010 shows a big change in public opinion in the US towards outsourcing of production and on free trade agreements. Poll respondents were asked "Do you think free-trade agreements have helped or hurt the US?" The response in 1999 was close to 30% for those who said hurt and those saying helped. By 2005 the curves diverged seriously with more people saying that it hurt and fewer saying it helped. In 2010 this swing is sharp with about 50% saying it hurts the US and only about 10% saying it helps. When asked "Do you agree or disagree that outsourcing of production and manufacturing work to foreign countries is a reason the U.S. economy is struggling and more people are not being hired?" the response is overwhelmingly agreeing that this is bad for the U.S. job situation. The answers are the same across party affiliation, in fact higher for Republicans than Democrats 90% to 84%, higher by income level with 93% for those making over $75,000 agreeing and 86% for those making less than 75,000 agreeing, 93% of professionals and managers agree compared to 89% white collar and 83% blue collar agreeing. This shows all segments of society agree that that the manner in which free trade and outsourcing of production is taking place is not helping the U.S., and this time the highly educated segments are leading the way. Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who helped do the survey points to the big change in the way well educated and upper income people perceive free trade agreements. In 1999 only 24% of this group making over $75,000 said free trade hurt the U.S., now 50% of this group says it hurts the US. This is sure to lead to big changes in U.S. trade and currency issues with China and other countries. ...

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The Dow Jones Average in the US went up by 11.3% since August 26, 2010, in anticipation of the Fed's quantitative easing, and the Republican win in the House and a filibuster capable 41 seats in the Senate. But on the eve of the midterm election in the first week of November 2010, the mood is changing. There is considerable concern that the Dow Jones average may have gone too far. Experts question the advantages of gridlock in Washington, especially when strong government action may be necessary in a crisis. And there are questions on how effective the Fed can be this time when the interest rates are already near zero.

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Der Spiegel interview by editors Christiane Hoffmann and Christian Reiermann  with Finance Minister Schauble of Germany in June 2016, on Britain's exit from the European Union. Schauble points out that crises also present opportunities, citing the euro crisis which today is different after six years of tensions, and the Euro currency the second strongest reserve currency in the world. He says politicians would be deaf not to learn from the Brexit referendum, and to come up with better ways to bring Britain's active participation in the European Union. He says the more Britain is part of Europe the better things work. On defense and foreign policy he sees Britain playing a role with Germany and France so that the European voice can be heard in the world. Schauble says Europe can be sluggish and slow at times, but it can come up with solutions. He agrees with Britain that bureaucracy hurts Europe and needs to be tackled, more autonomy is also part of the foundation to build for Europe. It is not essential that all be part of the Schengen area or the monetary union, flexibility matters exceptions can be made, but active participation is vital. In Schauble's view Britain's "pragmatic rationality" is hugely valuable for Europe. ...

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Latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows it has collected $63 billion in tariffs over the preceding 12 months. Even though there is no agreement on trade with China, president Trump says the U.S. is benefitting from higher tariffs by tens of billions of dollars. In May he estimated tariff revenues could reach $100 billion.This report in the WSJ says this could happen if the the new tariffs of 10% on additional $300 Chinese goods imported to U.S. goes into effect on September 1. This is likely considering that China sees this in different terms than the U.S. such as its sovereignty, whereas the U.S. sees it simply in terms of fair trade. With new elections China may be simply putting things off till the election is decided as Mr. Trump has pointed out. The tally of what the U.S. Treasury gets annually if $100 billion is generated in tariffs goes something like this. Of this $30 billion was generated previously for the U.S. government, so the incremental amount is $70 billion. Of this about $16 billion goes to offset the effect of loss of farm exports to farmers, mainly soyabeans exports to China, through a rescue fund. This leaves additional $54 billion for the U.S. Treasury. Money that could conceivably be put back into infrastructure that the U.S. badly needs in mobile and fixed to improve internet speeds and move up from its low rankings compared to China and other countries. A WSJ report this week shows Germany in worse shape than the U.S., both countries having dismal status in mobile infrastructure- the U.S. at No. 37, and Australia No. 4, Canada No. 3, and even Croatia No. 9. This throws some light on why this trade dispute has become intractable, for China the right of a sovereign nation to move past middle income status even as its telecom technology with Huawei 5G is top class, and for the U.S. the right not to fall behind in advanced technologies such as Telecom. It is also why one hears so much about Huawei and why it has become a flashpoint of the conflict in trade and trade practices. It is thought Mr. Trump is conducting this trade dispute. Yet less known is the fact that prominent Republicans in Congress such as Senator Warner have stated on television talk shows that they are concerned Mr. Trump may give up too much in negotiations that lead to the U.S. not being able to compete in telecom advanced technologies that matter for competitiveness and for national security. What was treated by Bush and Obama administrations routinely without much attention to the consequences is now a top concern for Republicans and others in Congress and business. ...

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Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel said the government will follow the recommendations of the government appointed Ethics Comission to close eight nuclear reactors immediately, and close most of the other reactors by 2021. Three plants may be kept online into 2022 for reserve power. About 70% of the German public by some estimates opposes nuclear power. Nuclear energy provides 23% of German energy supplies, and coal fired plants 42.4%. In 2002 a coalition government of Social Democrats and the Green party made a decision to phase out nuclear energy. Already Germany has the highest targets of any country in the world for alternative energy. German renewable energy targets are for the country to generate 80% of energy supply from sources such as wind, solar and other renewable energy by 2050. Currently Germany produces 16.9% of electricity consumption through renewable energy. And Germany has a thriving energy industry with solar energy companies SolarWorld AG, solar cellmaker Q-Cells SE and wind turbine maker Nordex. Germany sees the challenge as both reducing the risks of nuclear energy and an opportunity to become the world leader in renewable energy with growing markets overseas. Merkel vioced this by saying - "This path sets a great challenge for Germany, but we can be the first industrial country to make the transition ino an age of highly efficient and renewable energy." ...

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Because not much money is being spent the velocity of money as measured by the ratio of GDP to M2 money supply is at a low not seen since 1991, in the 4th quarter 2008. If GDP shrinks in the 1st quarter 2009 at 6% annualized rate as expected, then M2 velocity will be the lowest since 1987, even with the accelerating growth of money supply growth. The M2 money supply, a measure of money in the system including time deposits has grown by $767 billion or 10% in the past year accoding to the Fed. Money that is not being spent is building up in amountain of cash reserves. Banks have about $679 billion in reserves of cash, and this matches the $653 billion by which money supply has increased during that time as aresult of the Fed's repeated infusions. This suggests that inflation is not the risk that it would appear to be, even with the governments huge spending plans and the Fed's efforts to add so much liquidity. Says one economist, the money multiplier is just not working and is broken. Will consumers start borrowing and spending again. Not as long as they are so overstretched and with job losses mounting. And will banks continue to cautious and slow to led? Most likely as long as the bank's balnce sheets are broken, and the bad assets remain on them. This may explain last weeks efforts by the Fed to buy Treasury bonds upto $300 billion and more efforts to get credit flowing again by buying up mortgage securities and raising the ceiling to $1.25 trillion for purchases. cash...

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Anderson Clayton 25 years, grew up in a rural part of North Carolina. She won the state leadership election and has clear ideas about what went wrong with the Democratic party. She gets asked not to keep saying "we've left Democrats behind." And responds by saying: "We have, we've left people behind." During the Obama administration the party became more of a metropolitan party and lost sight of rural voters. It also neglected towns that were dependent on factories that moved overseas. Her plan is to reach out to rural voters in North Carolina, and to the hundreds of thousands of students there. Clayton feels that rural and blue collar voters have been forgotten by the Democratic party and she wants to get this right. She won her race against a 73 year old candidate who had the support of the Democratic party establishment. Clayton who studied at Appalachian State University, is an organizer, and wants to be active throughout the year meeting and organizing rural voters and students. ...