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The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
Treasury data show the 10 year Treasury bond yield went up to 3.78% in April from 3.0% 3 months ago.
06/11/2009
The effect of large Fed purchases of Treasury's may be the reverse of lowering rates, as creditors to the government see rising inflation from the Fed's unprecedented actions.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Fed's Conundrum on Treasury PurchasesWall Street Journal 06/15/2009
Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, on the risks of inflation.
06/11/2009
Krugman responded to Laffer's oped in WSJ with an op-ed of his own in the NYT suggesting that Bernanke's Fed should stay the course. In this article Peter Coy, aveteran reporter and analyst of BW, looks at the situation and the facts. Demand is so weak in the economy, that the Fed's expansion of the money supply only helps make up for this and still falls short. The economy will be fragile for some time to come so reversing course is simply dangerous. In the video that goes with this he tells Mandel that Bernanke is right and should stay the course.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Why the Fed Isn't Igniting InflationBusinessWeek 06/18/2009
With $5 trillion of new debt issue estimated in 2009-2010, the prospect of continued bailout of auto industry for years dims outlook for reversing this.
06/03/2009
Some experts point to the need for a 50% reduction in capacity in the auto industry from 2008. Demand may be lower than the 9.5 million vehicle year that the auto task force says is needed for GM to breakeven. This will mean continued government aid to the industry for a number of years.
Linked Articles
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World Growth
New York Times 06/04/2009
Kicking the Tires on the General Motors DealWashington Post 06/03/2009
Even when the recovery occurs and inventories get replaced gorwth will be slow, as deleveraging process takes many years.
05/28/2009
Mr. Mecksworth, chief economist at MAPI says even when arecovery happens it will mean slow growth as companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years to come.
Linked Articles
Once a Key to Recovery, Detroit Adds to Pain
New York Times 06/01/2009
Sharper Drop Is Forecast for Factory ProductionWall Street Journal 05/28/2009
The youth vote in India's 2014 and 2009 parliamentary elections
05/02/2009
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/02/2009
Hopes of a Generation Ride on Indian VoteNew York Times 05/15/2014
What the U.S. and other eurozone countries can learn from Germany in reducing unemployment (1)
04/30/2009
The Harz labor market reforms under the Schroeder administration helped Germany reduce unemployment after over a decade of high unemployment folowing reunification.
Linked Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
Laffer says inflation and high interest rates are a sure thing with the $1 trillion increase in the monetary base since Sept 2008.
04/23/2009
This is the largest increase in the monetary base in the last 50 years by afactor of 10, and is unlike anything ever experienced before. He sees inflation and rising interest rates as a result surpassing anything seen in the 1970's. Bernanke he says faces a Hobson's choice between contracting the monetary base and putting the economy back in recession and letting things go the way they are resulting in steep inflation. He sees the Fed having the option of increasing the reserve requirements at banks, to restrain the increase in the monetary base.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The gap between the admirable comments and clarity of Obama's Georgetown sppech and the growing foreclosures, dramatic drops in business and consumer lending.
04/14/2009
Failure to stem foreclosures and to ramp up business and consumer lending, by taking over insolvent banks and offering loans at attractive rates, is hurting the economy and will lead to further job losses.
Linked Articles
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls Again
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Text of Obama Economic SpeechBusinessWeek 04/14/2009
U.S. president Obama and Hispanic immigrants- promises, hope and reality 2008-2015
04/09/2009
Linked Articles
Obama to Push Immigration Bill Despite the Risks
New York Times 04/09/2009
The Giant U.S. Deportation Machine Runs AmokWall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Interest rate swap contracts sold by banks to the city of Detroit in 2005 and the "kiko" derivative contracts sold by banks to exporters in S. Korea before the 2008 global financial crisis
04/03/2009
The huge losses suffered by Detroit and by exporters in S. Korea and how the issues raised were handled in the two places. What takes precedence fairness or contracts, how much of a contract has to be intelligible to the investor and the broader question of why banks needed to write such contracts or conduct business in this way which could hurt their reputation. An example is given by Floyd Norris of NYT where Bankers Trust reputation suffered badly in 1994 for selling such contracts to P&G.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/03/2009
'Safe Harbor' in Bankruptcy Upended in Detroit CaseNew York Times 12/23/2013
Ted Truman, a seasoned veteran, helps Geithner with the G20 meeting and calls for bigger stimulus spending.
03/13/2009
Ted Truman is aforceful advocate for bigger stimulus spending at the upcoming G20 meeting. In a memo to Geithner he has toughened up the US position on this in advance of the G20 meeting in the UK on April 2, 2009.
Linked Articles
Split on a Cure for Recession, Leaders Try Three Efforts
New York Times 03/15/2009
Geithner Hires a Seasoned 'Temp'Wall Street Journal 03/13/2009
Paul Krugman responds to Arthur Laffer's points about inflation by saying reversing course would put us back into a steep downturn.
06/11/2009
Krugman says only three times in the past has amajor economy faced a liquidity trap, where there is no more room to cut interest rates. During the depression years, during Japan's lost decade and now. In the previous two situations, in 1937 and 1996, a premature tightening of credit put the economy back into a steep downturn.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Stay the CourseNew York Times 06/15/2009
With capacity utilization at 68%, too much slack in the economy for inflation to take root.
06/11/2009
Producer Price Index showed its steepest decline since 1949 for May 2009 over May 2008. And there are still 10 unsold homes for every one sold, with the typical being 6.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Housing Starts Jump in May for Third MonthWall Street Journal 06/16/2009
Bernanke's views on how the underutilization of labor in todays markets should make inflation less of a threat.
06/11/2009
Remarks by Bernanke to the Open Market Committee of the Fed in 2003, have a relevance to the situation facing the economy today. Rising raw materials prices and the falling dollar are likely to have a muted effect on inflation. The impact of slowing wages and the high unemployment and growing underutilization of labor, in the midst of a manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 68% and continuing to fall, are likely to be the deciding factors.
Linked Articles
Slack Labor Markets Will Hold Down Prices
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
An Arab view about the need to change old attitudes and perceptions about US and Muslim world differences.
06/03/2009
The need for education in the Muslim and Arab world that helps melt old attitudes and perceptions. This is a large region covering the Arabs in Egypt and North Africa to Muslims in South Asia.
Linked Articles
President Obama's Cairo Appeal
Washington Post 06/05/2009
Education vs. ExtremismWall Street Journal 06/03/2009
S. Korea's second household debt binge in the 15 years since the 1997 financial crisis
05/18/2009
The first period of rising household debt ocurred with the credit card boom when the government promoted consumer spending as a way to stimulate the economy. By 2003 this became a serous problem and the government rescued a credit card issuer in 2003. Household debt is again a major problem in 2012 with the increasing number of companies in financial lending that are not regulated.
Linked Articles
Notes From Another Credit Card Crisis
New York Times 05/18/2009
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
The rapid structural shift in employment to new industries and fields may create high unemployment even as millions of vacancies go unfilled.
04/30/2009
The Labor Departments JOLT statistics for job openings shows over 3 million job vacancies. The reason for this is the mismatch in qualifications and the speed with which industries are downsizing, and the shift to new industries and fields away from banking, retail, construction and autos. This makes new initiatives in retraining and government cost sharing to enable companies to hire and retrain super critical. Germany has some initiatives lkke this.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's BadBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Nobel Laureate Michael Spence offers solutions to the job crises and high unemployment facing the U.S.
04/30/2009
Linked Articles
Why the Old Jobs Aren't Coming Back
Wall Street Journal 06/24/2011
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
The hidden virtues of Hillary Clinton- a different approach to foreign conflicts
04/30/2009
Hillary's adoption of the Dutch military's model for the U.S. role in Afghanistan and following up on the work of South Asian envoy Holbrooke, who settled the Balkan conflict with peace accords under Bill Clinton.
Linked Articles
Against Odds, Path Opens Up for U.S.-Taliban Talks
New York Times 01/11/2012
U.S. Takes Dutch Military as Role Model in Afghan OperationWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
In the two areas that government can make aserious difference, foreclosure prevention and bank lending it is failing.
04/15/2009
The government has only indirect influence over the other important variables in the equation for economic recovery, consumption and employment. Through foreclosure prevention and bank lending it can influence consumption and employment. Obama's program while admirable may simply fall short of what is required. Through asimple takeover of insolvent banks the administrationcan implement its own programs for goreclosure prevention and aggressive bank lending at attractive rates, but this has to be done early before business go into permanent retrenchment mode and consumers simply revert to a frugal lifestyle of an earlier generation.
Linked Articles
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls Again
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Banks Ramp Up ForeclosuresWall Street Journal 04/15/2009
Bogle at Vanguard Group says we live in an agency society where agents like pension fund managers and mutual fund managers make decisions for us.
04/12/2009
Its this agency society and not an ownership society that we have syas Bogle. Ownership society was 50 years ago. And what did these agents do, they did not ask the questions and exercize their civic obligations in the business sense, which means scrutiny for things like selection of board members, corporate governance, executive compensation and conflicts of interest, and dilution of responsibility where it has to be exercized. Here private equity firm Carlyle Group is shown to have given millions of dollars to get access to New York State pension fund investments in Carlyle Group. In the process pension fund managers made millions of dollars, and Bogle's agents have sold their obligations to fiduciary responsibility.
Linked Articles
He Doesn’t Let Money Managers Off the Hook
New York Times 04/12/2009
N.Y. Pension Deals Seen as Focus of Wide InquiryNew York Times 04/14/2009
Is Erdogan missing the lesson of 2009 elections- the AK Party depends on economic growth for voter support
04/04/2009
Linked Articles
A wake-up call from the voters
Economist 04/04/2009
Turkey's Economy Surged 11% in QuarterWall Street Journal 07/01/2011
Geithner's Paulsonlike plan for toxic assets and doubts whether it can work.
03/23/2009
Krugman and Eavis have doubts about the new Geithner plan as it looks so much like his predecessor Paulson's failed efforts to do much about toxic assets. Krugman sees things only getting worse as 600,000 jobs are being lost every month, as Geithner, Congress and the public fail to push for the tough solutions including government taking over failed banks to deal with tosic assets without having to sort out pricing in advance.
Linked Articles
Geithner's Gamble Needs Speculators
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Financial Policy DespairNew York Times 03/23/2009
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