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The new budget in France is designed around two goals. The first is to take aggressive action to bring the deficit down to 3% by 2013, not a gradual program but one intended to send a strong message to capital markets that France under a Socialist government is dead serious when it comes to the deficit and debt reduction. Every 0.1% increase in France's borrowing rate would mean $260 million going into interest payments on the debt, according to Pierre Muscovici, the finance minister. France's borrowing rate is close to Germany's 1%, and the French are determined to keep it this way. The other goal was stated by Mr. Muscovici: "I don't want a policy of austerity, hitting salaries, weakening the state and turning it into a pauper." The idea being that hitting the common man would mean decline in consumer spending and lower growth and tax revenues that would create the kind of negative spiral facing Spain of declining growth and rising unemployment, worsening deficits, and higher debt payments. The way Muscovici raised the $39 billion- beyond the $9 billion in higher taxes and savings already implemented for 2012- is through $13 billion in new taxes on corporations, and additional $10 billion from new income taxes, including a higher tax rate of 45% on incomes over $193,000. Additional $13 billion will come from a freeze in public spending, so that some ministries take cuts adjusted for inflation keeping the overall budget the same. Spending cuts could come later to balance the budget as growth picks up to 2% in 2014, is the government reasoning, softening the impact. The new budget is well received by German public opinion as showing the resolve of Germany's key partner in the EU. Part of the reason the French are able to get business and people with higher incomes to contribute is that France is unique in that there is a greater consensus than in other countries on the steps needed and a sense that austerity measures targeting the middle class would be counterproductive. The aggressive action with considerations for equity and fairness also gives France the chance for a faster turnaround and avoid the problems plaguing Spain and Italy, which French public opinion and business appears to have grasped and the government's experienced ministers for the economy have successfully presented. ...

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Galston focusses attention on the major problem facing democracies in Europe and the U.S.- that of providing decent paying jobs and improved economic prospects for lower and middle income households. He cites the surveys from the Pew Research Report and the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics showing how middle income households median net income remains stuck at levels of 1997, and lower income households at levels of 1996. The median net worth of American households adjusted for inflation presents an alarming picture of being at $96,000 in 1983 and $98,000 in 2013 for middle income families, and being at the level of $12,000 for lower income families the level of 1975. Most of the new jobs as much as 95% are being created in the low wage service sector and the BLS statistics show the future looking much the same- with huge numbers of low wage jobs, fewer decent manufacturing jobs because of automation and jobs shifts to low cost locations overseas, remaining manufacturing jobs in the U.S shrinking by another 800,000 to 7% of the workforce by 2025. The result is the alarming rise of populist politicians like Trump in the U.S., Le Pen in France , and populist politicians in Hungary and Poland. Cultural liberals in the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment are both threatened by the rise of cultural illiberalism, xenophobia, and nationalism, as economic anxiety increases, and fears of terrorism and immigrants add to this anxiety. Progressive tendencies in the Republican party since the days of Theodore Roosevelt and of professional elites in the Democratic Party could become endangered if no serious effort is made to come up with solutions to the problems these trends present. The disconnect between the concerns of the working and middle class and the professional elites as the gap widens and the social compact in America and Europe breaks apart, means a new mindset will be required in America and Europe to deal with this. ...

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The shift from non-conventional polluting single cylinder engine contraptions used by poorer Chinese called "Inkfish" to conventional fuel efficient engines will reduce oil consumption in China even as more cars are on the road. This explains the paradox of Chinese vehicle sales being up by 77% year over year in the first quarter of 2010, and still gasoline demand went up by only 3%. Kack Perkowski, founder of Chinese auto-parts manufacturer Asimco Technologies, says the shift from the low tech "inkfish" type vehicles to fuel efficient small cars popular with the Chinese and encouraged by government policies to reduce oil consumption is a big factor in this development. Perkowski says 50 million engines are manufactured in China each year and if you subtract the 13.6 million cars, trucks and buses sold in China last year, another 36 million low tech highly fuel inefficient engines including "inkfish" engines were sold. China's car buyers are very price conscious and prefer smaller cars. Smaller cars are also well suited to the crowded roads in the coastal cities. And the Chinese government wants to keep oil consumption down so it is pushing buyers in the direction of smaller engines with tax breaks. The Chinese governmet is expected to announce subsidies for plug-in hybrids worth about one third of the sticker price. The motives are environmental and energy security related, but also have the intent of enabling China's car manufacturers to gain experience and leadership in newer electric car technologies. Bottom line: some experts including Deutsche Bank's Sankey view China's oil demand growing much slower, at about 2.6% a year over the next 15 years. This would mean oil demand tapering off at 13-14 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, much higher than the 9.1 million bpd in 2010, but growth curbed by fuel efficient engines and increasing fuel efficency of the Chinese vehicle population....

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Faces in the continuing foreclosure crisis in Spain in 2014 include Xacobo Rodriguez and his mother in Madrid. Foreclosures continued at a high rate in Spain into 2014. The Bank of Spain reports that 38,961 primary residence homes were foreclosed in 2013, a decline of only 1% from 2012. If second residences are included the number of foreclosed house increased by 11% in 2014. This is six years into the housing crisis in Spain with no end in sight. The government has declared a 2 year moratorium on eviction of families that meet hardship criteria- a member of household disabled, expired unemployment benefits, very young children. A Social Housing Fund with 6000 units which provide places to live was created but only a small number of units are given out so far. The social advocacy groups say not enough is being done. The government points out that 90% of houses taken by banks were unoccupied at the time. Bank Association spokesperson says there is an understanding of the depth of the crisis with 6 million people out of work, that action is taken to reduce the stress on homeowners. And point to the data showing only 1% of homes were taken by banks in 2013 of the 6 million home mortages outstanding, with one third of these done with an agreement to have debts erased for the homeowners. Women and immigrants are affected to a larger degree, according to Human Rights Watch. Social housing in Spain is only about 2% of the housing stock making things more difficult, by comparison it is 17% in France, 21% in the UK, 35% in the Netherlands, according to Human Rights Watch. Meanwhile the Spanish government of the Partido Popular under Mr Rajoy, continues a policy of trying to be responsive to the homeowner crisis, and at the same time helping the banking system recover following a $56 billion bailout loan taken by Spain from the European Union. ...

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The issues China faces as it plans the next phase of massive urbanization. Urbanization is a major priority of prime minister Li Keqiang, which was also the focus of his postgraduate work in his student days. In the early 1980's about 20% of China was urbanized, this has changed over three decades to where the figure is 47%, plus 17% for workers working in the cities but classified as rural, a total of 64%. China's plan is to fully integrate 70% of the population or 900 millon into cities by 2025. In 2013 only 35% of the population has a urban residency permit, or hukou. The permit is needed for residents to register their children in local schools or qualify for medical programs in urban locations. One of the problems is the huge cost of doing this which it is feared could lead to inflation and higher debt levels. Currently local governments bear these costs using land sales, and central government transfer payments, but without added financing and unable to issue their own bonds, the local governments strictly limit the use of local school and health services to their own residents keeping out rural newcomers. Local government taking over farmer plots, often without enough compensation is highly unpopular in China. Other problems are- providing a steady stream of earnings for new urban residents from farms, if no employment can be found. So they can sustain themselves- especially as they get past 40 years of age when factory employment is harder to find. The government planners see the larger urban population as a way to shift from a largely export based economy and slowing growth, to a consumption based economy. But critics say the risk is that for this to happen new residents from the farming villages have to find jobs, something the government will have difficulty accomplishing. A permanent underclass of unemployed and other financially strapped citydwellers living around major cities, as has happened with the progress of urbanization in Brazil and Mexico, is something the government would want to avoid. ...

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Brazilians turn to pawn shops lending by government owned bank Caixa, in a regulated portion of the lending industry, as credit card rates increase. Brazil experienced a huge surge in credit card debt in the years when consumer loans were freely made in the last decade. Between 2004 and 2014, consumer credit in Brazil increased 658% to $297 bilion, according to the National Association of Executives in Finance, Administration and Accounting. Central bank figures show 6.7% of personal bank loans and 26.3% of credit card accounts being in default. As in Turkey much of the country's growth was fueled by increased spending and consumer credit. The credit binge and the lower revenues from a decline in commodity prices is leading to slow growth and a stagnant economy.

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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France's president Hollande says about Greece during a visit by Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, that the Greek government must move forward with economic reforms, "while making sure that it is tolerable for the population." He also said he was "saluting the Greek people for their painful efforts of the last two and a half years." Samaras says in an intervew: "Greece is like a swimmer who is underwater for a long distance and needs to come up from time to time for some air, we need to be able to take a breath."

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Decades of investment in infrastructure and manufacturing have given China a strong grip on manufacturing. China's economy depends on exports with sluggish domestic demand. One economist in Hong Kong says Vietnam is the key, if tariffs are placed on Vietnam it will be tough he says, because Chinese goods enter the US from third countries.

In 2025 China's world trade is imbalanced to an extraordinarily large degree, hurting thriving manufacturing communities around the world, and depends on a concentration of port logistics, manufacturing and lack of fair trade practices, that allow $3.5 trillion in exports while taking in only $2.5 trillion in imports. By 2008 America was waking up to this, DJT actually flagged it a decade later, Biden realized this, in the second term what appears like a whirlwind 100 days is really action on many fronts that is coming one to two decades late. 

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Yannis Stournaras, economcs professor at the University of Athens becomes the finance minister in the new administration of prime minister Antonis Samaras. He holds a doctorate from Oxford University in economic theory and policy, lectured at St. Catherine's College, Oxford and at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. He was special advisor on monetary policy to the finance minstry and Greece's central bank. His public official positions include vice chairman of the Greek natural gas company and board member of the public debt management agency. He is well qualified to lead the effort for Greece to remain in the European Union with modified terms that extend the achievement of deficit targets by 2 years to 2016, and offer tax cuts and other growth oriented measures to get the Greek economy back on the path to recovery and growth after 4 years of declining GDP. He also brings a sense of committment to the EU, because he was chief economic advisor to Greece's Finance Ministry in 1994-2000 and took part in the negotiations that led to Greece's joining the eurozone in 2001. His strong views about changes needed to Greece's overregulated economy which favors special interests also coincide with the moves for labor and other reforms taken by the Monti and Rajoy governments in Italy and Spain. ...

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In its performance review for Pakistan the IMF says growth estimate is 2.8% for 2014. The IMF sees a poor outlook for the balance of payments situaion, and has raised the issue of critically low foreign exchange reserves. Inflation is increasing and is at about 11%. Foreign currency reserves have declined from over $6 billion in 2013 to less than $4 billion. Yaseen Anwar resigned as head of Pakistan's central bank in Jan 2014, as Pakistan begins its second quarterly review with the IMF representatives in Dubai. The IMF has only released $1.1 billion from a $6.7 billion bailout in Sept. 2013. The quarterly reviews are designed to see that Pakistan meets the bailout conditions. The new administration of prime minister Nawaz Sharif is making an effort to bring the security situation under control in Karachi and other cities to generate business confidence and expansion.

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At 79 years, Wilbur Ross will be one of the oldest people serving in any administration, as he serves as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration. Wilbur Ross is best known for the turnaround efforts in the steel industry. In 2002 he acquired LTV Corp, a third largest steel producer in the U.S. facing tough times and legacy costs, for $125 million in cash and $200 million in environmental liabilities. In 2005 he sold his International Steel Group to Arcelor Mittal for $4.5 billion, and is still an independent director on the Arcelor board. Ross's earlier experience was as a bankruptcy specialist at Rothschild Inc. in the 1970's working on restructurings at Texaco, TWA and Continental Airlines. Analyst Charles Bradford is cited in this report by WSJ's John Miller, who competed with Ross in restructuring proposals for failing assets, and describes Ross as working harder and being tougher to make the deals. Some of these restructurings involved cutting pensions and large layoffs. The entire U.S. steel industry faced problems from foreign competition and legacy costs at the time. This included representing bondholders for Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City. At the time Ross told creditors considering seizing the asset for a possible missed payment that it would be better to keep Trump in charge for Trump properties as they would be worth more with Trump inside. This led to Ross later providing critical backing for the Trump campaign and raising money from the business community. Mitt Romney had similiar work at Bain Capital in turnaround of failing companies, later turning to politics as Governor of Massachusetts, and 2012 Republican nominee for president. Both Romney and Ross have come under criticism for their role in cost cuts at companies involving layoffs and cutting worker benefits. ...

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Former German chancellor from the SPD party, Gerhard Schroeder, is interviewed by Rayond Zhong of the WSJ. Here he describes his views on the way Agenda 2010 was implemented in 2003 in Germany to gain public support for changes to Germany's welfare state. He also talks about the eurozone crisis and how Angela Merkel has handled the crisis, and the right approach for an Agenda 2020 for Europe. The interview was made at Schroeder's law office in Hannover, Germany. This is a detailed and exceptional interview by Zhong covering all facets of the eurozone crisis and Germany's response. Schroeder says it was right to give Greece more time to make the reforms, so that the Greek people could see that this path would help in a positive way. In doing this he cites his own experience when as the reforms for Agenda 2010 to make Germany more competitive were taking place- including cuts in spending and lower taxes- he turned down his finance minister Hans Eichel's proposal in 2003 for an additional 20 billion euros in cuts to put Germany in compliance with EU law....

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Stress test performed by the consulting firms of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger used data as of Dec 31, 2011, and a scenario of a 6.5% decline in GDP and a 26.4% fall in housing prices by 2014. An international panel of experts from the Bank of Spain, the Spanish government, the ECB, the IMF, the European Banking Authority and the EC was formed to oversee the consultancies report. A separate more detailed audit of 14 individual banks will be made by Deloitte Touche, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG International with results by the end of July. The four banks that need capital injections are Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, NovaCaixaGalicia and Banco de Valencia. The consultancies estimate was for 51-62 billion euros needed according to Oliver Wyman, and 51.8 billion euros needed according to Roland Berger, for recapitalization of Spanish banks by 2014. The issue now is about any remaining questions about additional losses, and whether rescue funds from the EU fund the EFSF should go directly to the banks as favored by the IMF and the government of Spain. This is because of the stress on yields of Spain's 10 year bonds with rescue money going to the Spanish government at the insistence of German chancellor Merkel....

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Efforts by charity groups in Andalusia, Spain, to get supermarket chains Mercadona and Carrefour to donate food for food banks. Some of the food goes to rural laborers hard hit by the unemployment in Spain. Unemployment in the region is about 34%. Spain's overall jobless rate is at about 24.6%. More unemployed workers are running out of jobless benefits in Spain in 2012. The percentage of unemployed people in Spain receiving assistance declined to 65% from 78% in 2010.