LyrArc Article Gist
The Great Pacific Garbage Patch of 1.6 million square kilometres near the coast of California, shown in this video from the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is one of many garbage patches in the world's oceans. It is like a peppery soup of microplastic with larger items mixed in and the peppery soup part is the hardest to cleanup. Cleanup is no easy task- cleanup of just 1% of the Pacific ocean would take 67 ships one year according to one estimate. The best way to tackle this is to tackle it at the source prevent it from getting into the ocean in the first place. Imagine 10 million metric tons of this stuff that end up in the worlds oceans each year because of a lack of public awareness of the risks and dangers of this kind of pollution that over time could pose health risks that are not properly understood today through contamination.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
The Obama administration's proposed budget for fiscal 2013- for the year beginning Oct. 1, 2012- shows the budget deficit for the year at over $1 trillion. It shows new revenue of $1.7 trillion over 10 years mostly from ending the Bush period tax cuts on families earning more than $250,000 a year, restoring the estate tax to the 2009 level and limiting subsidies for oil and gas companies. It proposes raising the tax rate on dividends from 15% to as much as 39.6%, for households earning more than $250,000 a year. This measure is expected to generate $206 billion over 10 years. The budget also offers "principles" for future tax reform by proposing the Buffett rule replace the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). The AMT was not indexed for inflation so it has the weakness of putting more middle class taxpayers into AMT, leading to temporary solutions by Congress. The Buffett rule would have people earning more than $1 million pay a tax rate of at least 30%. Many wealthy Americans like Mitt Romney paid lower taxes using deductions to lower tax rates- Romney's tax disclosures show he paid effective tax rate of 14%. The White House says the budget will reduce the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years through the new taxes, and small changes to Medicare and Medicaid and other spending cuts. This is in addition to the $1 trillion in spending cuts agreed to in a deficit reduction agreement in 2011 between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. The budget proposal proposes investment in education and transportation projects of $137 billion, and continuing through Dec. 2012, a tax break for businesses to increase investment. It includes mandatory spending of $2.7 billion for new community college programs, $6 billion to modernize schools, and $1.8 billion to make homes more energy efficient. It also increases the resources of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC (two agencies overseeing the banks), $26 million for a new Interagency Trade Enforcement Center to counter unfair trade practices, and cuts U.S. postal delivery to 5 days a week. The result is a program designed to be balanced in terms of economic fairness, making modest investments in the future for education and energy, continuing policies to stimulate growth, and extending the date for bringing the deficit under control to 2018 instead of 2014 as planned earlier....

LyrArc Article Gist
A look at the Palestine conflict from 1947 to 2023. The British Mandate for Palestine gave Britain a role in administering this part of the Middle East after it took control of the region from the defeated Ottoman Empire in the First World War 1914-1918. The League of Nations set up the Mandate with intention to take the people in this territory to independence. The UN in 1947 gave about 56% of Palestine to the Jewish people and 44% to the Arab people. When the Arab people rejected this UN settlement and Arab neighbors Jordan, Egypt and Syria invaded in 1947 about 70% of the territory went to the new state of Israel. There have been repeated conflicts almost every 7 years since and there are factions within Israel and inside Palestine Arabs who have protracted the dispute, including over holy sites in Jerusalem, without seeking the kind of settlement that won peace for Ireland after hundreds of years of British rule and discrimination. The world with its billions of people in China and India who seek development and billions of people in Africa and Latin America who seek a way out of poverty, has no interest in prolonging small conflicts that distract from the importance of tackling climate change, infrastructure development and education, healthcare, ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As an outside with no political experience Park won 3 terms as mayor of Seoul. He was a prominent civil rights lawyer, helping win South Korea's first sexual harassment case in early 1990's. Now he is dead after taking his life in a situation where a former secretary filed a sexual misconduct case at a Seoul police precinct 2 days earlier, making all of Seoul pause in disbelief at what has happened. As a human rights lawyer who struggled during the dictatorships in the 1980's he will be mourned as someone with so much potential for South Korea, say people who watched him over 30 years. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran's government drastically cut subsidies for gasoline, electricity and basic food items. Gasoline prices were raised from 1,000 rials (about 10 cents) per liter to 4,000 rials. As a result gasoline consumption is down 14% in early January from the prior month. Use of public transport is up 20%. Fares for Tehran's buses and subway went up by 20%, far less than the price increase for gasoline. The government introduced a $40 per person monthly stipend to soften the impact especially for poor families. Iranians are gradually tightening their belts and adjusting to the price increases, reducing wasteful energy use. Iranians have one of the highest rates of wasteful energy consumption in the world, according to IMF. This is because Iran has so far provided generous subsidies, covering 80% of the cost of energy and basic food items. President Ahmadinejad has introduced the Smart Subsidy Plan which calls for a gradual five year phaseout. These cuts will save $100 billion a year, according to government estimates, and is supported by the IMF. Iran is rigorously monitoring price increases in retail stores to ensure that retailers are not passing on the increases to customers. Trucking and transport businesses are allowed to raise their fees by only 15% to cover rising costs including the 837% fuel price increase....

LyrArc Article Gist
The resurgence of the Pudong District of Shanghai, with large investments, an industrial base, migration to the cities, and favorable location at the mouth of the Yangtze River. Since 1995, 70 skyscrapers and 120 million square metres of floor space according to official estimates, have been built in Pudong. Real estate agency Jones Lang LaSalle says occupancy and rates compare favorably with Manhattan in New York. New York has 10.3% empty space compared to 9.5% for Pudong, and space is leased for $693 per square meter annually in Pudong, 10% higher than in midtown Manhattan. The migration to the cities and a growing middle class have proved skeptics wrong over the years about the ability of real estate developers to fill the space they created. Also helping is the central government's plans to focus investment on Shanghai as the business capital of China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Across Africa the situation is worsening for food security following the pandemic. More people are likely to die from food insecurity than from the pandemic. A succession of crises including drought, a locust swarm moving over vast parts east Africa into South Asia, and tons of crops rotting in the field after the lockdowns, are making the situation worse. With the lockdowns many informal economy workers are not able to earn a living, with no safety net this means they are going without food and slipping deeper into poverty. Remittances from overseas supported many people in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this has dropped by about 20-30%. As a result the World Food Program estimated in April that 265 million people, double that in 2019 will face world hunger- 3 in every 100 in the world. About 821 million will face food insecurity. The world food system is fragile with just none plant species accounting for two thirds the global crop, with threats of soil erosion, rising temperatures, extreme weather and disease. Wars, high inflation, political struggles, and conflicts make things worse. The hope comes from the fact that this time the largest countries China and India are emerging in 2020 very different from what they faced for most of the nineteenth century, with recurring famines and lack of access to food supplies. India now even allows farmers to export food to buyers in other countries directly. Getting money into the hands of farmers and people in food insecurity areas is one way for them to access existing food supplies all over the world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Standard and Poor's changed its rating of U.S. Treasury securities from stable to negative. U.S. Treasury securites are still rated AAA. Moody's made no change in the rating. U.S gross debt as a percentage of GDP is 91.6%, with the comparable number for Germany at 80%, France 82%, Canada 84%, the UK at 77%, Japan 221%. The U.S. budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is 10.6%, the comparable number for Germany is 3.3%, France 7%, Canada 5.5%, the UK 10.4%. John Chambers, the head of the sovereign ratings committee at Standard & Poor's stated that "the sign of political gridlock was a key determinant in our outlook change." The budget deficit will go up to $1.5-$1.65 trillion, or over 10% of America's GDP in 2011. The gross debt for the U.S. is at $14.219 trillion, just short of the $14.294 trillion cap. With rising entitlement costs and the interest on debt this is expected to go over the debt ceiling as early as July 8, 2011. Again political gridlock and the divide between Republicans and Democrats about deficit reduction is causing concern about the delay in raising the debt ceiling....

LyrArc Article Gist
As the trade problems with the U.S. escalate in tit for tat tariffs, China looks back at its history for parallels. The period of the "unequal treaties" imposed by the Western powers on China in the period 1850-1900, the Korean War of the 1950's, and other analogies that come up to people. Yet China's planners and leaders are looking at another situation the Plaza Accord of 1985 in which the western nations pressured Japan into accepting a significantly higher exchange rate to reduce its trade surplus and the Japanese yen appreciated by 50%. Japan cut interest rates from 5% to 2.5%, and introduced huge fiscal stimulus, banks opened up to lend vigorously. The result was a boom by 1990's followed by a bust that led to another decade of lending to loss making firms called "zombie" businesses, that led to a stagnant economy. This has persisted for three decades. This China sees as an unacceptable situation when China has still not achieved developed economy status in terms of per capita incomes. It fears getting into a middle income trap as the economic growth slows and the aging population makes a recovery more difficult.  The difference with Japan in the 1985-1990 period is that Mr. Trump lacks the kind of five nation economic coordination that put pressure on Japan. Today there are differing views on China in Europe and the U.S. and different policies. Mr. Trump is known for his style of deal making and could settle early, as feared by some Republican leaders in Congress who see in China a challenge to America's technological dominance. There are no calls to appreciate China's currency. Only calls for China to change its state subsidies model and put in writing and through laws that change the way of doing business that does not require American companies to hand over advanced technology. This is also a concern for Japan and the European Union countries such as Germany, and is something all nations try to protect in global competition. Japan is still facing the consequences in creating a new competitor in high speed train technology after building the first high speed trains in China and transfer of the high speed train technology by Kawasaki. The Household Survey by the Federal Reserve showing the financial fragility of 40% of American families shown on this page today shows how this situation is likely to evolve as working class families in the U.S. support a trade stance that protects American jobs and technology. Job losses over three decades and a $891 billion trade deficit in 2018 are seen as unacceptable to the U.S. in 2019. A stronger U.S. dollar helped increase the U.S. trade deficit by 10% in 2018, nullifying some benefits of Mr. Trump's trade actions. Mr. Robert Lighthizer was a negotiator in the trade dispute with Japan in 1985, and runs the negotiations with China with support from president Trump. This alone has kept the Japanese situation in 1985 uppermost in the minds of China's leaders as they try to come up with a way to settle the trade dispute with Mr. Trump.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After over a decade under the Christian Democrats and Merkel and the influence of older voters in elections, NYT says younger voters and candidates are coming into prominence in the 2021 elections. The SPD under Olaf Scolz is fielding 80 candidates under age 35 for parliamentary elections to form a new government. Digitization, child care, poverty and social mobility, and the need for a rising tide that lifts all boats are issues in this election.

LyrArc Article Gist
Differences between the Christian Democrats and the CSU over immigration and Merkel's open door policy are only one of the issues for a new Merkel government. There are differences between the CDU and the Free Democrats. Add to this the difference between the Greens and the Free Democrats on environment and business policies.  As a result 2 months after the German election no clear agreement has been reached for a new government made up of the CDU, CSU, Free Democrats and the Greens.  It looks like a difficult coalition to form requiring all the skills of chancellor Merkel and her allies, and in uncharted territory. The FDP leader Lindner sees a 50-50 chance for the talks. The Greens do not want a new election. Merkel's CDU party won about 33% of the vote. To not form a minority government she needs the FDP and the Greens to get over 50% of voters represented in the new government.

LyrArc Article Gist
This essay in the Economist warns that most of the public does not understand the dangers of the idea of no Brexit as a preferred option to a Brexit deal that gives too much to the EU. It says this is dangerous in terms of the harsh effects at the border with Ireland and on the economies of Ireland and Britain. It points out that the private view of the EU is very negative towards Brexit compared to the diplomatic comments, so that little should be taken for granted. The European Union and Britain would in the event of no deal on Brexit not follow agreed  terms such on as the 40 billion pounds exit bill, guarantee of EU citizens rights, averting of a hard border in Ireland. The unfriendly nature of such a no deal would lead to aggravating its effects, argues the Economist.  The Economist estimate is that about 4% of GDP would be lost over 5 years for Britain and Ireland. Supply chains would be disrupted. Depending on WTO rules alone is not sufficient as the EU has bilateral deals with many countries. The car industry is particularly vulnerable as it employs 800,000 people and exports 80% of output- it would lose EU certification and face 10% tariffs. EU has made clear that trade for chemicals, pharmaceuticals or cars depends on meeting its standards. These are only a few of the problems in trade as the list goes on and on. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Laffer says that starting in September 2008, the Bernanke Fed has radically increased the monetary base, comprised of currency in circulation, member bank reserves held at the Fed, and vault cash, by almost $1 trillion. See graph. The percent increase in the monetary base is the largest increase in the last 50 years by a factor of 10, he says, and its outside of anything we have ever experienced. The currency in circulation component which previously comprised 95% of the monetary base, has risen by a little less than 10% while bank reserves have increased 20 fold. With such large reserves banks are lending more money. The 12 month growth rate of M1 is now in the 15% range. But he sees reduced demand for money as confidence is restored in the banking system. He sees the drop in output and manufacturing and employment leading to further reduction in the demand for money. His view is that the reduced demand for money, and the rapid growth in the money supply, will lead to higher interest rates and inflation, unlike anything experienced in th 1970's. The backdrop to this is the huge liabilities taken on by the federal government in the auto and banking bailouts, and through the stimulus and other programs, with a deficit he projects at 13% of GDP. Steps the Fed could take such as issuing $1 trillion in new bonds to contract the monetary base, become difficult, considering that the Treasury plans issuance of $2 trillion in new bonds in the next 12 months. The alternative is to increase the reserve requirements of banks to restrain the growth in the money supply. A too rapid contraction of the money supply would cause the economy to go back into a recession. See Paul Krugman in the NYT, June 15, 2009, who cautions against reversing course. Krugman says the Fed increased reserve requirements in 1937, leading to putting the economy back into a slump. Krugman responds to Laffer by saying that the economy faces deflationary trends, and is in a liquidity trap where policymakers cannot cut interest rates further, making inflation less of a threat at this time. Krugman says overcrowding of private investment is not happening, as government is only stepping in where private investors have retreated....

LyrArc Article Gist
India is a major farm exporter with over $50 billion in exports of farm products. New trade agreements with US and EU will shrink the current $14 billion surplus over imports as imports increase to meet US and EU negotiation requests.

LyrArc Article Gist
The significance of the economic relationship of UAE and India with the visit of prime minister Modi to Abu Dhabhi on June 28 on the way back from the G7 Summit from Germany. Under recent trade agreements trade with UAE will increase to $100 billion in 5 years. 8 million Indians live in the Gulf region with remittances of over $50 billion a year. During Biden's visit to the region there will be a meeting of a new grouping called 2I2U referring to Israel, India, US and UAE.

Mohamed Bin Zayed or MBZ is a clear proponent of a strong leadership by the US in the region and in Asia and maintaining peace in the region after so many disastrous wars.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jay Powell and the US Fed have less to worry about from China's increasing demand for oil in 2023 that could keep oil prices high, says this column in WSJ. China says Taplin, has over 50% of oil demand coming from the construction industry, heavy industry and the trucking that backs it up. The construction industry has problems from years of overexpansion, and heavy industry, manufacturing, faces lower demand for Chinese exports from the US and Europe in 2023. This means oil demand will not increase enough to keep oil prices high, says Taplin. This puts the Fed in a better position to tackle inflation, just as the decline in global shipping and spare capacity in shipping, supply chains returning to normal is helping the Fed.

LyrArc Article Gist
US plans to keep up with Russian advanced artillery and rocket systems in the invasion of Ukraine by sending its shorter range MLRS rocket system to Ukraine. The MLRS has a short range system that extends for over 40 kms. compared to its long range that goes 186 kms. The US sees the sending of the shorter range MLRS as feasible and not the longer range. Denmark is sending its Harpoon system of rockets that would complement Ukraine's own Neptune system to protect a key Black Sea port of Odessa. US policy is designed to keep Russia from making any serious gains in the war which the US and European Union see as a unprovoked invasion. Popular sentiment in US and EU has backed up the Biden administration.

LyrArc Article Gist
How India finds and trains its youngest sports athletes is shown in this report from Fatehabad by Andrew Amson. A bricklayer's daughter Pooja set the Indian national record at 1.82 metres in high jump by winning silver at the Asian U-20 Games in South Korea. The amazing thing is that coaches discovered her talent for jumping even though she entered in training for yoga. With limited facilities she trained with bundles of haysticks for the pit to fall on and a bamboo stick to go over. This is also a story of how India is matching the development of sports of its neighbors Japan, China and South Korea by giving young people from every background and income level a chance to compete at the highest level. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The ECB's annual report for 2012 and the role the ECB under Mario Draghi played in the eurozone crisis in 2011-2012. The gains made in eurozone financial architecture, especially the agreement for the ECB as financial supervisor for European banks. The ECB sees itself as the supervisor for all European banks- the French position in the discussions in Brussels. The agreement of Dec. 12, 2012 only says banks with assets over 30 billion euros, or 20% of GDP of countries, or operations in two or more countries will come under supervision by the ECB.

LyrArc Article Gist
Extreme drought affected Minnesota cattle farmers leading to elimination of many cattle herds.               Wildfire smoke from Canada settled down over the cities of St Paul and Minneapolis for days.                 Lack of enough snow and ice in winter led to losses in ice fishing and cross country skiing making winters unnatural in Great Lakes Region that also includes Wisconsin and Michigan. Walz acted, and his plain spoken communication style made a difference clearing misperceptions. Pew Research shows 67% of Americans favor clean energy but misperceptions abound.          Minnesota during his two terms now produces 50% of its energy from wind, solar and nuclear. Minnesota is now likely to be ahead of California in getting to 100% wind solar and nuclear for all its energy. Walz set the date 2040 into law for this to happen with 40 climate initiatives. A bill signed into law speeds up the permits for renewable energy projects. Walz’s communication style shows that when people understand the benefits and specifics you get things done. “The surest way to get people to buy in is to create a job that pays well in their community. All of us are going to have to be better about our smart politics, about bringing people in.”        ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Bank of England under Governor Carney cut interest rates 0.25% from a low of 0.5%, and suggested further cuts were on the way. This follows Brexit and action by the central bank to avoid a recession. The British pound fell about 1.6% to $1.3112 against the dollar, and euro 1.770 against the euro. Government borrowing costs declined, and the 10 year bonds yield dropped to 0.639%. Economic growth in Britian for the second half 2016 will be little or none. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 is now 0.8%, down from 2.3% before the Brexit vote. Bank of England staff say their calculations show Brexit vote has "conservatively" reduced growth by 2.5 percentage points over 3 years even after the rate cuts and stimulus action of the Bank of England, which other estimates show could add 0.5% over 2 years. This brings the Brexit impact to about 3% loss in GDP over 3 years, with these reliable estimates. Months after the Brexit vote the question remains whether Brexit supporters misled British voters, leaving the Bank of England to come up with a way to prevent a recession. After the austerity cuts since 2009 and the prospect of some improvement in the economy, this is a step backwards at a time when some of the working and middle class find themselves left behind. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Europe's second wave affected mostly younger people with mild or fewer symptoms. Latest data show that this is changing so that infections from young people are spreading to older members of the same family. In Italy the median age of newly affected is rising with more than one third from people over the age of 50 years. In Britain the number of hospitalizations have doubled in September to more than 2000, and in Spain deaths are rising sharply to 547 in the first week of October. With multigenerational families and older people offering care of grandchildren it is particularly difficult to isolate completely in Italy and Spain.

LyrArc Article Gist
US census data shows Mexico exported $382 billion worth of goods to the US in 2022, an increase of 20% over 2021, according to US census data. American companies put more money into Mexico for investment than China in 2021. The high shipping costs and 2 weeks vs 2 months of shipping time are part of the reason companies are looking at Mexico as an alternative to China. The trade friction with the US and tariffs are added incentives for companies to shift manufacturing out of China. The shift is gradual as the infrastructure improvements in Mexico lag behind the infrastructure development in other countries in Asia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tom Wheeldon in FR24 describes the importance of cultural issues such as women wearing headscarves in Turkish elections that are important in the Anatolian heartland away from Istanbul. Kilicdaroglu is handling this issue by supporting the right of women to wear headscarves. This puts more focus on the issue of inflation at over 50%, a cost of living crisis, and the handling of the earthquake, as Erdogan looks for a repeat of his previous election wins. If elected Kilicdaroglu will take Turkey back to a parliamentary system and rule by a civil servant who is modest and plans to serve for only one term.