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Americans loaded up with debt may be turning to older thriftier ways of an earlier generation. This this will affect consumer spending, have an impact on Chinese exports, and on the Japanese economy which is dependent on China for growth. Some argue that there is a culture of consumer spending that runs through recent American history. Even after one boom was over the stock boom was replaced by a housing boom, each boom and easy credit offering free spending and borrowing lifestyles. Is it going to change now? But it could be that a point has been reached where the finances of households and of the nation's credit system can only go so far, and culture won't matter if banks tighten up credit. There is a limit for the Fed to act to lower rates, and household debt has reached highly serious proportions. The savings rate went from one tenth of income in 1984, to 5% in 1994, to slightly negative in 2008. Today for those who borrowed against their homes in 2003-2007, 34 million households or one third of the US households, savings rate was negative 13% in 2006 June. Thhis came down to 7% in end of 2007, according to Moody's Economy.com, which suggests that the cutback in consumer spending from this group of people had already begun. What will this mean for consumer spending in the USA? It means that even though the top fifth of American earners who generate half of all consumer spending according to Barclay's Capital, will continue spending though a bit more carefully than before. The rest of the American people will be cutting back, especially the one third of the nation that is heavily in debt, and the unemployed if job numbers aren't that good. Which could be why Goldman Sachs predicts that Japan is already in recession using the Japanese definintion of decline in output, and China may be slowing down more significantly than is understood because of the poor data that is coming out of China. The Chinese economic activity too chaotic to accurately measure, and with large time lags before what is actually happening is detected and quantified correctly. ...

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Amy Chua talks about elites, ethnic minorities, and native peoples and and the conflicts that democratization and free markets can create in these countries, in her book "World on Fire." Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia have ethnic Chinese minorities and large native populations, and in India there are the Marwaris of Rajasthan and the commerical class among Gujaratis, the Parsees, and similarly in China. And in Bolivia, a white minority that is 3% of the population, and other white minorities in countries with large native or tribal populations like Ecuador, Peru, Columbia, or Jewish people in Latin American countries. In Africa you have a white minority in South Africa. In all these developing countries democracy empowers the native peoples, and free markets empowers these commercial minded elites. There is conflict and tension between the two and the question is how is one to look at this. If one sees it the way one ethnic Chinese person, Prof. Amy Chua -who has written a book on this subject and whose parents lived in the Philippines under Japanese occupation- the promotion of free markets and democracy is an American export leading to a lot of conflict. From Amy's perspective, there is the difficult tension for the Chinese minorities in Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. But are these countries better without democracy and free markets? And take Malaysia, did democracy and free markets come with an American export after the Reagan era promotion of free markets and democracy? In Malaysia native Malay peoples were empowered by democracy when the British left in the 1950's, long before the Reagan era. And somehow Malaysia has benefitted economically, even as there is tension between Malaysia's Malays, who run the democratic government, and the Chinese minority, which helps run the business sector with a rising Malay business community. With good sense prevailing all the people benefit even as the tension exists. The same is true in other countries mentioned here. Countries like Bolivia have to be seen as a legacy of long Spanish colonization and requires one to look at it differently, taking into account history, culture and place. empowers the ...

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U.S. consumer brands from iPhones to Nike sneakers are popular in China. They are also products Made in China by Chinese workers. This makes a subtle threat in Chinese media of boycotting American products less likely and not in China's interest. In earlier disputes with South Korea and Japan China resorted to tactics that included boycotting products from these countries. American products are considered as prestigious and of higher quality in China in the popular perceptions. About one third of the 800 companies that are members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in China have more than 1000 employees.  The U.S. has also provided much of the foreign investment that led to China's rapid growth. With it came critical technology. According to the Rhodium Group the investment by the U.S. in China between 1990 and 2017 is about $250 billion. Some projects between IBM, Walmart and Tsinghua University are high priority projects in food safety. Subtle threats in Chinese media could turn into boycott of some American products from Procter and Gamble or Nike. But as this report shows the relative affluence of employees in the Shanghai region who work at American companies depends on avoiding such a situation. ...

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Brinkmauer and Pfister of the German magazine Der Spiegel interview German Chancellor Angela Merkel in September 2017. The interview covers a range of topics from whether Merkel is addicted to power, why she chose to run for a fourth term, revolving door for CDU politicians as lobbyists for the automobile industry, the AfD right wing party, the refugee crisis and the CDU's historic policy of controlled immigration, and whether democracy is losing strength.  In characteristic Merkel fashion the chancellor takes up the idea of her addiction to power by saying she is careful not to let this happen to her by reading critical articles in the press and having her staff bring critical reports. Her discussion with her constituents in her electoral district are also frank and open, more so in 2017. About the idea that Helmut Kohl's fourth term as chancellor being not good for Germany and for the CDU, Merkel responds that she has given it considerable thought. She found that she still has the intellectual curiosity to learn new things, understands that she has much to learn about how the country and the world is changing. This has been decisive in her decision to run.  Merkel believes that someone who has worked in politics should be able to work in private industry following historic practice in Germany. On the government links with the automobile industry Merkel says her approach has been to look at what was best for an industry employing 800,000 people in Germany, yet deplores the diesel emissions cheating at VW. Has democracy lost momentum after the U.S. elections and the refugee crisis? Merkel says democracy is still strong, and that she will do everything to strengthen democracy in Germany and other parts of the world.  Merkel's view is that it is important that there be counterweights in democratic systems. In this way democracy is strong in America, and also in Poland and Hungary. The chancellor cites high voter turnout of 82% in 1998, 79% in 2002, 78% in 2009. Since then she says in 2009 it dropped to 71% and 2013  72%, yet  expects that with the issues in this election people will come out to vote in larger numbers.  For many years Merkel is seen as co-opting the issues of the left parties and the SPD, being careful to move to the centre. Der Spiegel puts this idea forward to the chancellor by asking her if she is the best SPD chancellor Germany ever had.  In her matter of fact style Merkel responds that voters do not think of it this way, simply expect her to her job as best as she can possibly do it.       ...

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The earlier interactions between US and Iran have turned into an Iranian effort to develop its nuclear capabilities bringing the situation faced today, and showing the failure to find solutions of everything tried before and not helping the people of the Arab World and the Gulf regions.During the Reagan period American involvement under Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to support the Iraqi invasion of Iran in a balancing act. And just a year earlier the Democrat Carter's efforts to look at the Islamic revolution as a response to the CIA's intervention in Iran's internal affairs under Eisenhower's Foreign minister Dulles to secure oil supplies, and efforts to find a way to good relations with Iran. This was followed by the Democrat Obama negotiating with Iran, normalizing relations and Democrat Biden handing over Iranian assets  of hundreds of billions of dollars that were used DJT says to build its military that had suffered badly under the earlier western sanctions under Republican Trump.  It has led to some of the migration from Syria after Russian involvement that flooded Germany with millions of migrants and destabilized European countries democratic processes.  ...

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Krugman points to some striking data in a U.S. Federal Reserve study, showing 47% of Americans do not have the money to meet an unexpected expense of $400 without selling something they own or borrowing. The is the 2nd year of this Federal Reserve study. It shows alarming information about the condition of retirement savings- about 30% of nonelderly Americans say they have no retirement savings or pension, and reported going without some kind of medical care because they could not handle the expense. About 25% say they or a family member experienced financial hardship this year.

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How the American invasion in Afghanistan and Iraq has not produced good results. See related article on the mess it has created for the US in the Middle East.

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Volcker helped set the autocratic tradition at the Federal Reserve which Greenspan followed. Actually this may not have been a good thing- not to have any dissent and to all speak in one voice as often there are many angles to one issue and only more than one viewpoint can accomodate the different angles which all have to be taken into account. Meltzer describes it as a club with al the members supportive of the club and its chairman. This may not be a healthy thing in the long run. Mr. Volcker at a recent meeting questioned Mr Greenspan's cheerleading of the " bright new financial system" as he called it and which in the end with all the brains and talent as well as greed failed the American people.

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Ford shows originality at the March New York Auto Show by showing a crashed Taurus which was intentionally crashed into a barrier at 35 mph for this display. It has amonitor which shows how the crash happened and how the electonics work to protect the occupants in a crash. Ford learned from its bland ads of taurus as the safest car in America which did not boost sales as Taurus sales dropped 13% so far this year. VW had an ad of the Jetta in a crash but nothing this original has been tried. For Ford it helps draw the attention of car buyers who have defected to foreign makes.

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This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

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Dana Mattioli's report in the WSJ on Elon Musk and babies, the treatment of women. Not so good a role model for the young people of America, as shown here in the WSJ. The old values of Christianity, Buddhism and other religions anchored European and Asian civilization, sadly missing today in economies where profit seeking has replaced everything else. And the elderly and children, education and health are sadly neglected.

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Jose de Cordoba of the WSJ provides this excellent story on the nature of the migration crisis in the U.S. that is creating political divisions in the U.S. What is causing this surge in migration to the U.S.? Cordoba provides some useful insights to understand the nature of this problem. Nine out of ten migrants in Guatemala which sends most of the migrants from Central America are moving north from Guatemala through Mexico to the U.S. for financial reasons, it points out. Only 10% are because of violence in the region, the rest for financial reasons according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration The jump in apprehension of Guatemalans at the American border shows a surge from 15,000 in 2007 to 236,000 in 9 months of 2019, according to U.S. government data. The surge began in 2008 and jumped in 2014 after U.S. court rulings that first required migrant children to be allowed to join relatives in the U.S. followed by a ruling in 2015 that allowed a parent to join the children and allowed court proceedings to take place that takes years. The result was that smugglers advertised on radio and families sold small plots of land to join relatives in the U.S. who had gone before them. The migration is also specific to certain areas hit by damage to crops, including coffee crop from drought, or certain towns that simply sent more people simply for financial reasons advertised openly.  For 8 hours of work a migrant could make at $12 per hour amount of $96 per day, in Guatemala the daily wage would be about $5.  Overwhelmingly it is financial reasons or economic opportunity that sends migrants north. After it became known that kids could help migration the people in family groups apprehended at the border jumped from about 40,000 in 2015 to 390,000 in fiscal 2019. Smugglers charge $8600 per adult and half that for a child and an adult that can be dropped off at a checkpoint. The efforts of president Trump to close the border to this migration include having Mexico sign an agreement to police its southern border with Guatemala using its newly setup National Guard. As a result the migration has actually surged in 2019 with migrants seeing this as their one last opportunity to join relatives in the U.S. or to migrate to the U.S. The Trump administration tried separating families because of the loophole in the law that allows children to be not deported and parents to join their children. But this created a public outcry and the effort now is to close the loophole in the law. It is also strange that as many migrants are coming from one town Joyabaj  with population 100,000 as from Guatemala City the capital population 2.5 million. In fact the economy has grown by 3.4 % a year in Guatemala and efforts have been made to improve conditions with the help of donor countries in the West for several years, though the drought conditions exist. The situation is similar to that in Europe. If one looks at the violence by gangs in central American region after the end of the guerilla wars and compares it to the wars in Syria and Iraq, one can see how humanitarian concerns preceded what eventually turned out tobe a full blown migration for economic reasons. Initially chancellor Merkel adopted a humanitarian stance but failed to recognize that there was another side to his situation that would attract a wave of economic migrants from places as far apart as North Africa to Afghanistan. Poverty has existed in these regions for many many years before the current migration, with drought and lack of economic opportunity going far back in time. Merkel only recently recognized this problem and the new CDU leader Kambrauer has clearly recognized this. CDU policy shifted in 2018-2019 with curbs on economic migration that has reduced it to a trickle. This process is underway in the U.S. at its border with Mexico and for Mexico with its border with Guatemala. In the short run Europe and the U.S. are paying a price. Not just in the way it has divided each country with a far left and a far right eroding the centrist parties that existed before. In some cases centrist parties that were popular on the right and the left now hve leaders from a far right or a far left faction within the centrist ruling parties. Boris Johnson in Britain, Trump in the U.S., leaders in Italy, Austria and Hungary. Or as in Germany and Spain new far left or far right parties causing the centrist parties to dwindle in influence or as in Germany this combined with a shift to the Green Party in Germany and Liberals Party in Britain as a show of disapproval for how the migration issue has been tackled.  The Economist in a July 2019 issue also points out that the country's own citizens have fared worse with migration. It shows how the Conservative Party's austerity cuts for welfare budgets was popular in Britain as long as eastern European migration at high levels in Britain were allowed starting with the Labour party under Blair. This disproportionately hurt the middle class and the poor after the hit already taken from the faulty banking caused recession. With the drop in migration it is now felt by a majority in Britain that the austerity cuts have just gone too far and a mood is set in to restore many of the cuts and fund public services. Meantime some of the damage has been done and will take a decade to correct as the issues that mangled the centrist parties and led to fragmentation on views of what society should look like have taken place with Brexit and high levels of poverty, income inequality in Britain, lack of investment in infrastructure with overallocation to tech with declining productive benefit for every additional dollar spent. ...

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The startling truth about health "reforms," - they won't control spending, and without that the whole system of health care will rapidly become unaffordable and unsustainable. Obama's Council of Economic Advisors points out in new report that since 1975 annual health spending per person, adjusted for inflation has grown 2.1 percentage points faster than overall economic growth per person. At this rate health spending which was 5% of the GDP in 1960, and is 18% of GDP today, would grow to 40% of GDP in 2040. Medicare and Medicaid would increase from 6% of GDP now to 15% in 2040, or equal to three fourths of federal spending. Employer paid insurance premiums for families which grew 85% in inflation adjusted terms from 1996 to $11,941 in 2006, would increase to $25,200 by 2025 and $45,000 in 2040. This would force employers to reduce take home pay. Samuelson says the uncontrolled health spending is singlehandedly determining national priorities, reducing discretionary income, raising taxes, widening budget deficits and squeezing other government programs, while it is producing large amount of waste in medical spending. See the link to Prof. Tyler Cowen of George Mason University in NYT, 6/14/ 2009, who cites the habit of doctors to write many expensive tests as one of the prime culprits in the wasteful spending. And in the process it delivers higher cost for lower overall quality of health for the American people. This at a time when many European countries provide live examples of doing it in a better way- lower cost, better health. The serious problem with the Obama health reforms says Samuelson is that it talks about restraining spending but may end up increasing spending. Its talk about controlling spending he says is good intentions, but based more on hopeful thinking, public realtions and risks becoming cosmetic reform. Because to really control spending will require coming to grips with its fundamental cause- hospitals and doctors are paid mostly on a fee-for-service basis and reimbursed by insurance, private or governmental. Such a system encourages doctors and hospitals to provide more services, expensive tests, favors heavy use of expensive medical technologies to increase profits, and for patients to expect them. Samuelson puts his finger on the root of the problem - there is no incentive and every disincentive for all the players in this game , doctors, hospitals and patients to seek reform of this system. For doctors and hospitals the hope would be that this cosmetic "reform" would leave the system basically unchanged, and patients to continue with a lifestyle and expectations that do not not acknowledge the fact that a lot of healthcare does not come from spending but from preventative care, education, good eating and exercize habits, and healthy lifestyles. And the uninsured are no exception, they would simply start consuming the expensive care for lower quality of overall health like everyone else. With this kind of situation confronting us, the views of Samuelson, and Professor Tyler Cowen of George Mason University, as welll as a growing chorus of informed public opinion on this subject, is that insuring the uninsured is a good idea, but doing it within the bounds of the present system, can only increase the costs. And too much is at risk, to rely on what Samuelson calls a scattershot of measures to control costs made up by Congress such as "evidence -based guidelines," "electronic record-keeping," "bundled payments to hospitals, to give the illusion of progress that won't make a serious difference. A sweeping restructuring of health care is needed, that would overhaul "fee-for-service" payment and reduce the fragmentation of care. It will also need what has not even be touched on adequately in the debate. This is the massive need for education in the schools about nutrition, eating, exercize, healthy lifestyles. It would also require opinion leaders in each field from sports and other fields to lead by example and with constant public presence, the media, and companies to form a partnership with private institutions to change existing eating habits and lifestyles that encourage obesity, smoking, fast food eating habits, large portions in restaurants....

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Bernanke's speech at the annual Fed Jackson Hole meeting put any future policy action off for the September meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, which will meet for 2 days to allow lengthy discussion of issues. He repeated his focus made in earlier statements that other actions are needed to reduce the headwinds facing the U.S., actions other than the Fed's monetary policy. He called for "good, proactive housing policy," which has been a major missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle of the American economy. Specifically, "families with mortgage debt bigger than the value of their homes facing unusual financial hardship which is also hurting the banks." Martin Feldstein and other experts have repeatedly called for action to help homeowners under water since the mortgage financial crisis hit in 2008. And the government's response has been tepid at best. Most evaluations of the Home Affordable Modification program and other programs to help prevent foreclosures consider them a serious failure of the Obama administration. Higher unemployment has only increased the urgency for government action in this area and good proposals were made by Feldstein and other experts. On the deficit and debt issues Bernanke would like to see debt to GDP ratios "at least stable, or preferably, declining over time." He also cautions that this be done bearing in mind "the fragility of the current economic recovery." He says his estimate for the U.S. economy's growth rate is 0.7% annual rate for the second half, and 'looks likely to improve." His prediction is for inflation to settle at around 2%. His main concern is that the there will be "an erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force" for the long term unemployed....

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Paying one cent more for every pound of tomatoes picked by farm workers from central America has been resisted by Burger King and other fast food chains and by the Florida Tomato Growers Exchange. Taco Bell and McDoalds have signed up for this increase. The extra cent per pound is the first pay increase workers have received in 30 years. A picker would have to fill 15 of 32 pound buckets an hour to earn Florida's minimum wage of $6.79 even with the one cent increase per pound.

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US Navy is in trouble from slow shipbuilding and industry sent overseas like other industries. Note this about the USS Constellation being built in Wisconsin in 2025- After 2.5 years only 10 percent complete. Time to build of 9 years. An Italian shipyard does this in 4.5 years. Of 20 frigates being built in 10 countries of this type 19 are being built faster. Budgeted at $1.3 billion already cost overruns of $600 million cost tag now $1.9 billion. No wonder says the WSJ, no one in the world wants to build ships here. China now makes 50% of the world's ships, before that Japan and South Korea made 50% of the ships in the 1980's and before that the US in the 1950's. One of DJT's mandates- rebuild the American Navy. This means bringing shipbuilding like other industries back to the US where it belongs. Without the US Navy in good shape there is no defense. “Every shipbuilding delay, every maintenance backlog and every inefficiency is an opening for our adversaries to challenge our [naval] dominance." -John Phelan, DJT's nominee for Secretary of the Navy, to the Senate Armed Services Committee in Feb. 2025.   ...

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Cillizza points to two demographics that the Republicans missed in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. The Hispanic vote comprises 10% of the electorate. Obama won this demographic with 69% compared to 29% for Romney. Romney's extreme positions, to the right of Governor Rick Perry of Texas got him through the Republican primaries but left him exposed in the national elections as he defended his statements of support for "self-deportation." In this respect Reagan, Bush, Perry adopted moderate positions and favored helping children of immigrants get a good education so they could be integrated into American society. Perry even took a hit for his moderate position supporting immigrants in the primaries even before his memory slip in a debate. Romney failed to support even the Dream Act for a pathway to be given to children of immigrants supported by Mark Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican senator of Florida. The second key demographic is the young people vote ages 18-29. This was 18% of the electorate in 2008, and about 19% in 2012. Obama took this demographic with a lead of 34 points in 2008 and a lead of 24 points in 2012. So that even with diminishing support such large numbers meant there was a large cushion to win the election by combining several demographics even if the Democratic position eroded somewhat because of the economy and unemployment at near 8%. This is what happened because of the 6 out of 10 voters, or 60% of the electorate who voted, Romney won 51% to Obama's 47%. This enabled Obama to get the small victory margin he needed in the popular vote. In many ways Romney was "an unnatural candidate" as the Wall Street Journal described him in its editorial, being a private equity business executive fighting a election with Democrats fighting to protect middle and working class interests....

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The American Medical Association came out against the public option in President Obama's health care reform plan. The outpouring of comments on this article show that public opinion today seriously questions the actions of the AMA, and think that this is not in the best interests of the nation. Its the kind of outpouring of criticism that GM's old management received from readers fed up with the management of the Detroit automakers, before the GM bankruptcy. Out of the 26 most read or recommended comments on this article shown on the link to the article in the NYT, 25 were strongly critical of the AMA's position on health care, none were in favor, and one was critical of the insurance companies. The 25 that were strongly critical had a total of reader recommends of 6539 readers when they were totalled up for all 25 comments. Some of these comments were strongly critical and explained at length why. Some were from doctors who disassociated themselves from the AMA. One suggested that the American College of Physicians also represented doctors, and the AMA represented only one group of mostly older doctors who are against any change. The financial crisis and the election of a new President, the changes in the country since the last failed reform effort in 1993, the new mood of the country as it changes to its more frugal past, a new generation of doctors and a new generation of young people coming to the fore, all may mean that things are no longer the same, and actually very different. Are the people running the AMA, like the people who were running GM a short time ago, not able to see how they are perceived by the public? ...

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Mexico's domestic market is growing and compacts are about half of Mexico's 1.13 vehicle market. The San Luis Potosi plant will be able to make 160,000 compact cars a year, an investment of $650 million. Some of this could go to Mexico's own need for compacts in the domestic market. Also this could supply the U.S. market where GM needs compacts to compete with Japanese and Korean models. One of the reasons Mexico is able to compete with the Southern United States is is its high quality work force at a fraction of the cost. See the link to Mexico's turning out a large number of engineering graduates. When companies look at where to put a new plant, Mexico is starting to compete a lot more with Detroit, said Gabriel Renero, a consultant at Deloitte in Mexico City. They are finding a very attractive work force in this country. In the last year, American automakers have all introduced a variety of new models from their Mexican assembly plants. Being able to produce any kind of vehicle looks good in the global market, says Renero....

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Chrysler has no new models in its product lineup except for the small Fiat 500 car and some product redesigns like the new 2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee. For about 2 years Chrysler has had liitle that is new to show buyers coming into its dealership showrooms. As competitors Ford and GM recovered sales after the 2008 crisis, Chrysler's sales have been dismal. A lot is dependent on how the new Jeep Grand Cherokee is seen by car buyers. Chrysler and Mercedes had essentially redesigned the Grand Cherokee by the time of the bankruptcy filing in April 2009 and Fiat's takeover. So even though it is presented as the new Chrysler, analysts say its not something Fiat's involvement created. What Fiat added is attention to some of the technical details, and working on the marketing aspects so that its off-road and on-road capabilities are presented in the best possible way to attract buyer interest, keeping price as close to sticker as possible. The question now is whether in Chrysler's difficult situation, the American car buyer will respond to the new Cherokee with interest. Sales peaked for the Cherokee at 300,000 in 1999 and dropped to 50,000 in 2009....

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Friedman says he hopes Hillary Clinton will take a mediating role to bring all the Iraqi political factions and ethnic communities to work together in a democratic framework, and not go their separate ways into sectarian conflict once more. With the US out of Iraq by June 30, 2009, this is critical. Friedman says Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan are not separate wars, but part of the same war, and the same struggle to win credibility for democracy and reconciliation, education, women's rights and modenization for the Muslim world as a way forward. Its the only alternative to looking backward. He says he has never bought into the idea of Iraq as the bad war, Pakistan as the necessary war and Afghanistan as the good war. In fact he says experts point out that very little will spread out of Afghanistan when the US leaves. But Baghdad has been acentre of culture, education and influence in the Middle East for centuries, so getting it right there after so much American effort and sacrifice has been invested there, is crucial for the Muslim world to move forward in the right direction....