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This report in The Hindu says farm loan waiver promises at Congress party rallies contributed largely to its performance in the Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. BJP offered only a limited waiver in UP and Rajasthan and has followed this as a matter of policy increasing the rural-urban divide that did not favor the BJP.

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Harvard professor, Benjamin Friedman, reviews journalist Timothy Noah's book "The Great Divergences: America's Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It." Friedman says, Karl Marx got it wrong when he predicted greater inequality based on the situation he saw in Europe and the U.S. in the late nineteenth century. Inequality actually decreased in the U.S. and Europe with industrialization, technological progress, higher educational and income levels by the early part of the twentieth century. Similiarly Simon Kuznets, Nobel Laureate, also got it wrong when he extrapolated from what he saw in the early postwar period, assuming greater equality and better opportunities in future decades. The approach Noah and Friedman advise is to look at individual factors that promote or discourage less divergence in income levels, opportunities and upward mobility. And based on this shape policy and action agenda for better outcomes. A whole range of issues fall in this range- promoting manufacturing and higher wage jobs, immigration policy, investments in education to upgrade skills, better educational opportunities, vocational training, upgrading education to keep up with new technology, and investments in research and new technologies for new industries that would create better opportunities. Because inequality is increasing worldwide, and countries are focussing on improving competitiveness as well as preserving the social fabric in a global economy, this is an issue facing all countries that seek a better future....

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What has happened that makes it so hard for Democrats Biden who stood on a picket line for the UAW autoworkers union, Harris fighting for workers, that they cannot easily convince workers that they are on their side? It is because compared to 1980 not the lowest income groups but the "downwardly mobile" white and other groups without college degrees have taken the brunt of the loss of manufacturing jobs. It is why the "zero-sum" stories of the former president have appeal to some workers who have lost the most from deindustrialization of the US. Even though Biden, and Harris, have fought hard and are putting in place the policies for the fight to reindustrialize America by taking old plants and modernizing them one by one across the country. No one has ever done this before including years in which the former president was in office. In these visual graphs it is easy to see the sharp decline in incomes and status in society of workers without college degrees as the economy changed after 1980 sending steel, auto and other industries to Asia. By 2024 these workers lives had been upended by the loss of these industries and the hope for income and place in society that existed in 1980. Every US president from Reagan through Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump had failed to address this. Biden was the first president to take this up but too much has happened with to reverse this in 4 years, the pandemic, inflation from loss of supply chains to Asia, and wages not keeping up with cost of living.  NYT's Badger, Gebeloff and Bhatia show analysis of the economy, incomes and jobs in 1980 vs the economy, incomes and jobs in 2024 for persons with a college degree and without a college degree.It shows the sharp differences in the eastern Midwestern states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania over 4 decades of job losses, loss of income status and self worth for men without college degrees. With their jobs in manufacturing disappearing also disappearing was the middle class lifestyle- of owning a house, having a cottage or boat in the countryside, and sending kids to college. ...

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For the first time in decades Mexico has a president who travels on regular commercial flights, flying in tourist class. There is no presidential plane, no presidential mansion. He starts his day at 6 am with a crime report and a Cabinet meeting By 7 am he is at the presidential palace giving a free wheeling press conference. He has in 3 months talked to the media and the public more than was done in 6 years under the previous presidents. By noon he is on his way to catch a commercial flight to a provincial city such as Guadalajara.  There he meets local leaders, eats at a local cafeteria, and attends an open rally. He is most comfortable brushing against people, pressing the flesh, and making some comments in one liners, something he has done for twenty years since becoming the Mayor of Mexico City.  He is a bit evangelical, more like Bernie Sanders, but with the power. Mexicans listen to him attentively. Mexicans were so fed up with corruption, neglect of public opinion, and lack of rule of law, that Obrador after contesting with difficulty in previous two elections won decisively in the recent presidential election with large majorities in parliament. He has in the first 100 days moved to scrap a new $12 billion airport with costly cost overrruns using a referendum to make the decision. He has also cooperated with the Trump administration to slow the flow of migrants from central America, working with the U.S. on a $11 billion investment in Mexico and Central America to create the jobs and secure environment so that people can stay in their homes.   ...

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Polls on Deutchland opinion trends show Merkel has gained support with her careful handling of Brexit, and the AfD has lost support. Only a month ago media reports covering the immigration issues had put AfD in the light of gaining using this issue. The infighting in the Conservative Party and the lack of any plans of ministers in the British government favoring Brexit for leaving the EU have Germans questioning this kind of politics compared to Merkel's promise of a "calm and composed manner" in dealing with issues of people's lives and the future of Europe. The extensive coverage in Germany of the vote for Brexit, the EU referendum in Britain, increased awareness in Germany of the benefits of the European Union. Merkel and other leaders offered their assessment of how the European Union has brought peace to Europe and improved the lives of the people during the pre Brexit media coverage. Now Infratest Dimap polls show the popularity of Merkel has increased to 59%. Compared to a June poll before Brexit things look better for Merkel-  the AfD Alternative for Germany has lost 3 percent of support dropping to 12 percent, the Christian Democrat party of Merkel is up by 2 percentage points to 34 percent in popular support, the Social Democrats also increasing support by 1 percent to 22 percent.The vast majority of people said the European Union provides security (74 percent) and prosperity (79 percent). Germans are skeptical about the value of referendums on such major decisions as EU membership because of swings in popular opinion such as that on immigration that swayed British voters- 49 percent saying parliament does better in these situations than a referendum, 42% saying referendums are better. For voters who said Germany was hindered by membership only 11% supported that proposition and 52% said the EU is beneficial for Germany. Over 75% actually favor more cooperation on refugees, data policies and energy, setting the prospect for a stronger European Union. Also proving the importance of responsible politics, and honest, flexible leadership, responding to people's concerns yet not pandering to swings in opinion for temporary advantage. A separate piece in the Guardian by Yonge points out that Cameron actually won only 23 percent of the eligible voters for Conservatives in the 2015 elections in Britain, reflecting a two decade slide. Brexit only made this failure widely visible, and did not escape the attention of the German people.   ...

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Adjusted for inflation wages for automakers have fallen 19% since 2008 because of tiers new workers making about $17 an hour significantly less than the $32 an hour. UAW seeks an end to tiered hiring.  For GM it is about committing to a long term contract in an industry that is unpredictable and uncertain. GM wants to make substantial investments in the EV industry with president Biden's help even when not making profits from EV's. For the UAW Ms. Janis of Jobs to Move America says labor is a very small part of what it costs to make EV's, batteries are the most. None of the earlier difficulties are likely because much fewer workers are needed making labor cost a much smaller component. Toyota has been slow in its EV start, BYD in China is leading but US carmakers are supported by the US government for EV's. Auto workers want a fair contract . And GM working with partners can still build joint venture factories for batteries in the South just like Tesla where work is not unionized. In the competition in EV's R&D and quality of management will play a bigger role. Fairness for workers will motivate American carmakers, with worker training and quality+value of EV's important for success.   ...

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Banks in the US are moving away from cryptocurrency and shunning connections with the cryptocurrency business after a regulatory crackdown by the SEC and public warnings about its future. Banks are reevaluating exposure to the crypto sector no matter how small, says this WSJ report. In early 2020 the regulatory agencies were not vigilant enough about this sector which is now seen as highly risky and not for the private sector- digital currencies being the province of central banks just like the US dollar which is issued with the backing of the US government. The Federal Reserve website says about CBDC, Central Bank Digital Currency in highlighted language.- "Like existing forms of money the CBDC would enable the general public to make digital payments. As a liability of the Federal Reserve, a CBDC would be the safest digital asset available to the general public, with no associated credit or liquidity risk." It is because the US Congress failed to act and a prevailing culture of laissez faire, failure of regulatory agencies to act quickly that allows this to happen, that the private sector was allowed to dabble in what is clearly the province of central banks. Laissez faire is originally a French word meaning "allow to do" which has been taken to extremes such as letting private sector issue digital currencies in the prevailing culture. The Fed's Lael Brainard, Jay Powell, Treasury's Janet Yellen did not come out saying what the Fed's website now says and highlights that the only safe digital asset is the central bank's digital currency. Compare this with the caution taken from the beginning about crypto sector by India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and the head of the central bank of India the RBI Mr. Shantikanta Das. ...

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Different estimates on how quickly and how much additional oil would come into world oil markets if sanctions are lifted. The time estimates range from quickly to 6 months for additional new supplies into world oil markets. Estimates of how much production can be added range from 500,000-800,000 barrels a day from private estimates to 1 million additional barrels a day from Iran's oil company, if sanctions are lifted. UK foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, says "there is still a long way to go if we are going to get there." He told a parliamentary committee that the nonnegotiable part is a window of one year advance notice if Iran were to break out and go for a nuclear weapon, which would be based on technical expert opinion of how long it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon using its knowhow and materials at that Mr Zanganeh took over as oil minister after the election of Rouhani as president 18 months ago. Zanganeh calls the effect of sanctions and the mismanagement of the previous government as "a catastrophe," and he has tried to instill anew discipline in the oil sector. Iran currently produces about 1-1.2 million barrels a day under sanctions, half of earlier levels before sanctions were tightened in 2012 because of the nuclear weapons development issues....

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A waning boom and lower growth rates in Brazil, and improving economic prospects for Mexico- diverging emerging markets and policy mix in 2013.

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Many people in the US turning 65 years have just opted to retire in this pandemic. This is changing the fabric of the American labor force in 2023, says NYT. This means the Fed will carry on the fight against inflation longer as there is a shortage of people in the labor market.

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The first reading of the bill to stop no-deal Brexit clears the House of Commons in Britain with a vote of 329 to 300. This rebuffs prime minister Boris Johnson's plan to push Brexit through by stealth and at any cost by October 31. The bill will delay this to Jan. 2020, and set the stage for a no confidence motion in the minority government of Mr. Boris Johnson.

It now prepares Britain for general elections as early as October with Johnson hoping to unite theBrexit faction, but facing a possible backlash from Conservative moderates, and facing also the lack of support from UKIP Party's Nigel Farage. It is a very different Brexit campaign in very different circumstances than the one that was able to win in the last referendum. It also poses a challenge for Labour party to get its message across about living standards and economic opportunity for all, better than it has before.

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Portugal's parliament gave preliminary approval to a new budget bill with 4.3 billion euros in tax increases on income, captal gains, property and car ownership, and 1 billion euros in spending cuts compared to the 2012 budget. Banco Espirito Santo was able to sell 750 million euros in 3 year bonds with an interest rate of 5.875%. Over 200 investors from France, UK, Germany made buying offers of more than 2.7 billion euros. The rate is lower than expected and reflects ECB policy support for bond markets of countries requesting aid.

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The Japan Society in New York celebrates the achievement of John Cage and the influence of Japanese religion, philosophy and aesthetics with a four part series that begins September 28. It continues to December. The use of silence, the understanding of Zen Buddhism, and the ancient culture of Japan helped invigorate Japanese composers in seeing the value of their own traditions. Cage hoped to use this to invigorate American culture which he saw has having less and less spirituality compared to Japan and the ancient path of the Buddha.

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Taiwan adds new spending of $8.7 billion over 5 years to its military spending to fund acquisition of home developed precision missiles, naval ships, and weapons systems for existing warships. The military budget will grow by 4% to $15.1 billion in 2022. China's PLA air force flew 19 warplanes into Taiwan's air defense zone on Sunday, September 14.

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The German French plan for 500 billion euro of outright aid as non repayable subsidies is supported fully by Merkel as she calls for massive amounts of aid to help the EU recover from th pandemic. Asd the pandemic was exceptional so must the aid be exceptional says Merkel.  The Bavarian state premier Soder supports it, so does the FDP's Lindner.  This report looks at why Merkel has pushed forward with this plan after supporting a decade of austerity in Europe following the Greek loan bailouts. Merkel sees aid that is repayable worsening the debt ratios of countries like Italy to the point that this would be stones not bread. This would strangle Italy's and other economies such as Spain and Portugal. It is not in Germany's interest, it is best to make partners. Only Austria, Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark oppose this. Yet this is shortsighted. Most of these northern tier countries have pursued their own self oriented interests not that of a European community of nations in crisis. ...

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A look at the views of Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and Strobe Talbott, a State Department advisor, on how the Obama administration missed signals of a more assertive policy from Russia during the period Medvedev was president. At the time Medvedev offered a softer tone from Russia and the U.S. extended cooperation. With the return of Putin as president for a second term, his more strident views on the role of Russia in the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union have emerged, especially in tems of policies in Syria and Ukraine.

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Risk averse leaders are hurting the German economy with little or no growth in the last 5 years. See articles alongside. Anglela Merkel's debt brake inthe German Constitution and the attitude for debt brake of Lindner's FDP in the Scholz coalition since 2021 have led to underinvestment in public infrastructure. Merkel's lack of investment in digital technologies, overdependence on Russia for oil and China for markets during the decade in office are all leaving Germany in bad shape in 2015.

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US Naval Blockade of Iran to include taking all Iran sanctioned ships in oceans of the world, says Gen. Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Caine says-The U.S. "will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran. This includes dark fleet vessels carrying Iranian oil. As most of you know, dark fleet vessels are those illicit or illegal ships evading international regulations, sanctions or insurance requirements.” It will also include ships carrying war supplies. Most of Iran's 1.6 million barrels a day of exports goes to smal independent refineries on the eastern coast of China, which are known as "teapot" refineries.

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Did U.S. Treaury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, ignore a key request by President Obama to present plans for the restructuring of Citigroup after the government bailout of Citigroup? Ron Suskind says this is what happened in his book on the Obama administration and how the White House operated to make key decisions. Ron Suskind, intervewed key members of the Obama White House economic policy team, Lawrence Summers, Christina Romer, Peter Orszag. In all Suskind conducted 700 hours of interviews for his new book in Sept 2011: "Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington and the Education of a President." According to the book, in early 2009 after Obama authorized a series of stress tests for banks he told Geithner to develop a plan for restructuring Citigroup. A month later at a meeting not attended by Geithner Obama raised a question about the status of the plan. He was told by Romer that no restructuring plan had been developed for Citi. Suskind says Geithner disagreed about a plan to restructure Citi and decided to ignore the request. Geithner and the Treasury Department say Obama asked Geithner to develop a backup plan to overhaul banks if the government was forced to keep a big ownership stake in the companies, and "there was fortunately never a need to put them in place." Geithner told Suskind that he doesn't slow-walk the President on any matter. Other aspects of the operation of the economic policy team that Suskind covers are a series of memos from top aide Pete Rouse raising questions that ongoing communication between some members of the economic team and Summers was giving Summers power to shape policy. Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, is shown as trying to keep out the views of Romer and budget director Orszag from reaching the President without going through him. When Orszag gives a private report to the president on the deficit, Summers objects saying that this was immoral. Obama lacked the fresh ideas needed to tackle the problems created by the mortgage and banking crisis of 2008, when he used the Clinton administration economic policy team of the 1990's- Rubin, Bernanke, Summers and Geithner. Fresh approaches were needed two decades after Clinton's election in 1992, and the Bush administration that followed, as many of the problems developed during this period. The similiar embedded thinking was shared during the Clinton and Bush administrations and the economic advisors about dealings with the banking sector, but the situation for deficits, unemployment, housing, and the economy had completely changed requiring fresh approaches. ...

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Patterns of decline or increase of foreign born population in the USA by country in 2008 vs. 2007 to gauge how immigration patterns are affected by the global financial crisis. There were over 325,000 fewer people from Mexico and 120,000 more people from India. There are about 38 million foreign born people in the US with 1.6 million from India, and 11 million from Mexico.

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The Trump indictment under RICO or racketeer laws draws this reaction in the WSJ. WSJ says the alleged behaviour was rotten, but does it gain credibility by being prosecuted under racketeer laws. It describes the Trump response as more delusional than criminal- that a decisive share of Republicans in suburbs did not want Mr. Trump for four more years. WSJ Editorial Board view is that there is no defending the conduct undermining confidence in the election result in 2020 and it would be a mistake for Republicans to try.

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Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza Party in Greece and the effort to reduce the face value of Greece's debt after elections in Jan 2015.