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Both the EU and US see another wake up call from China's position of on again off again diplomacy using rare earth as a bargaining chip. US and China separately and in coordination work to develop policy and actions to secure access to rare earth and technologies that is independent of China. China sees it's action on rare earth diplomacy as robust diplomacy in response to DJT tariffs, yet this is getting the US to move quickly to develop its own rare earth access including working with Australia, and taking action to support US industry. The European Union is not far behind in doing the same. This and the action taken by the US to restructure world trade for a level playing field, and getting Asian partners to acknowledge their abuse of the international trading system for two decades and accept some level of temporary tariffs is changing world trade. The US can regain the position it has held for the better part of the period 1900-2000, overcoming periods that included the rise of Russia and Japan after 1945. ...

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The European Union Commission president Manuel Barroso announced a multiyear $15 billion package of loans and grants for the new Ukrainian government on March 4, 2014. No immediate conditions were specified. Barroso said, this is "designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms oriented government in rebuilding a stable and prosperous future for Ukraine." This is meant to replace the help offered to the previous pro-Russian government by Russia and now cancelled with the ouster in street protests of that government. The U.S. has offered $1 billion in loan guarantees. For Ukraine this offers the prospect of making a new start under EU and possibly IMF guidance. The needs are estimated at $35 billion in international assistance loans over 2 years by the Ukrainian government, because of the dire state of the Ukrainian economy.

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Angela Merkel left Germany dangerously dependent on Russia for energy supplies that may simply be shut off after maintenance on the Nordstream pipeline. She did even worse on China says this report in The Times that says that it leaves Germany on the hook for billions. There are $200 billion of German investments in China and German business concern is snowballing with new restrictions on operations in China and the deteriorating business sentiment. Worse the entire supply chain for solar energy and other renewable energy products to tackle climate change is dependent on Chinese components. Another failure to prepare for the future under different scenarios. And 46% of German business have supply lines that include components made in China. By grossly underestimating the risks of such dangerous dependence on Russia and on China, and ignoring warnings from the US, Merkel has hit Germany's new elected government of Scholz, Baerbock and Habeck with very serious problems that may take the next five to ten years to sort out. On energy and how to build a whole new supply chain in Asia with the US and its allies Japan, India and other countries. The ultimate irony was that Merkel felt that she was the leader of the free world, and a free world that excluded the US and India. Such is folly. And how she was presented as a good leader in the media is today hard to comprehend. ...

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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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The US has become the world's largest gas supplier and provides a lifeline to Europe as it struggles with a cutoff of Russian natural gas supplies. The NYT looks at this remarkable development with graphs showing how this happened. This also makes it possible to lower the cost of gas for heating homes this winter in the US to ease the cost of living burden on US households.

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The director of research at one of two cybersecurity companies that monitors disinformation used by the Senate Intelligence Committee to analyze and give reports on the Russian disinformation activities 2014-2017, shares her conclusions. Information from Facebook, Google and Twitter was turned over to the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, which in turn handed it over to the two cybersecurity companies for analysis and reports. The Russian disinformation activities have continued in 2018, according to DeResta. The domestic propagandists and actors have taken these methods and used it to target sub groups, expanding the scope of these activities. The advertising related segmentation provided by these companies gives a ready made tool to easily target subgroups in the U.S. population. The viral activity arising from this means the message is carried over to other groups. As a result many groups are affected, affecting how democracy works through vigorous, yet intelligent debate. Explicit bias happens in election campaigns yet this is not spread through anonymous sources that are not identified and whose interests are known, as in disinformation efforts in a medium that spreads information quickly and without any depth whatsoever. For some minority subgroups the effects as ubiquitous, says the report. This report concludes that it is the responsibility of government, private organizations and individuals, and the tech companies combined to tackle this, as tech companies do not have the resources to deal with it. Its not enough to adjust how you sell advertising as tech companies are doing, says the report. The whole ecosystem of information is being compromised in multiple and still not fully understood ways, making it essential that a comprehensive solution with multiple combined efforts address it effectively. ...

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This Economist opinion says even though some of the Mueller investigation findings are sensational, not much would happen unless 20 Republican Senators broke with the president. The final report from the Mueller investigation is not expected to be made public. And expectations of the impact may depend more on political facts in Congress and support for the president rather than the legal findings, says the Economist magazine. Views of many Republicans in Congress have not changed and many have figured out that their political future depends on publicly supporting the president.

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This letter in the New York Times questions the wisdom of the NYT report that Mr. Rosenstein suggested in 2017 Justice Department meetings the need for invoking the 25th Amendment for the removal of the U.S. president Trump. It says this would lead to departure of Mr. Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General and leaves the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in U.S. elections without support from the Justice Department. Mr. Rosenstein says today he does not see a need for the invoking of the 25th Amendment

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European businesses are increasing investment in the US because of its relative stability and growth compared to a sharp slowdown with covid lockdowns in China and political risk in China with the war in Ukraine. The US is also more attractive than Europe for investment as Europe face a slowing economy with the war in Ukraine and the embargo on Russian energy supplies.

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For readers who heard about the restoration of U.S. relations with Cuba this may come as a surprise to know that the Cuban trade embargo by the U.S. is still in place. President Trump plans to reverse the steps take by president Obama for better relations. This story in the WSJ is unusual showing how much Cubans are looking for consumer goods so that they make a 13 hour trip to Russia for this. It is hard to believe after all the media coverage on restoration of relations with the U.S..  Cuba remains economically stuck in the past in the range of consumer goods available, and this looks likely to continue even after all the publicity following president Obama's trip there in 2016.

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Iraq is an artifical entity, an artificial state created by the British out of the defeated and disintegrated Ottoman Empire. Created from 3 Ottoman Arab provinces- provinces or vilayets of Mosul province which was mostly Sunni, Baghdad province, the city of Baghdad  mostly Sunni and rural areas Shia, and Basra in the south mostly Shia from tribes who converted to Shia Islam extending the reach of Shia religious sites such as Karbala. Note that the Sunni Arabs were closer to the power structures of the Ottoman Empire than Shia in the 18th and 19th century. As a result post war Iraq in 1950's was dominated by Sunni elites and the British imposed Faisal 1 monarchy of 1921 was thrown out by Sunni elites in the army in 1958 by Karim Kassem, followed by the emergence of Saddam Hussein from Pan Arab Baath socialist ideologies of that period.  After the US wars in Iraq and Iraq- Iran war, Iran mobilized Shia into popular militias. In 2026 Iraq is essentially several ministates pulled together in Baghdad, with Shia, Sunni and Kurdish ministates formed into the governing structure, and everyone praying for no outside interference to pull it all apart and maintain a fragile peace. While the British got Iraq Mandate from League of Nations in 1921 French got Syria provinces of the Ottoman Empire. In fact Sykes and Picot are the British and French diplomats who created artificial states of Iraq and Syria to suit their interests in the region for oil and for controlling Suez and territories in India, Indochina, Hong Kong, parts of coastal China (Shanghai). Why is this important? It is important because at the time Britian dealt with weak Sunni populations that were controlled through monarchs they put in place, and the British and French industrial power had no rivals. Today the Sunnis are mobilized and the Shia have with Iranian support mobilized also, and sectarian wars have torn the place apart for 40 years. America's founding fathers and first president George Washington, would if here today consider this the one place US would have nothing to do with in terms of wars and bases. On oil George Washington would advise America to find alternative sources than get dragged into useless sectarian wars and lose the battle for reindustrialization, after America's elites and their economists have essentially deindustrialized America. It is appropriate for the US president to take action only on grounds of not letting the place fall into regimes with ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons that could reach US and Europe. And for that China and Russia, India and Brazil, Germany and France should also do their part and fulfill responsibilities. As for Britain and France it is appropriate for the US president to say to the posturing in Europe and ambivalent posiions, "Go, get you own oil in the Hormuz," as the US is self sufficient in oil and does not need Iranian or Iraqi oil. It is also appropriate knowing that this Iraq and Syria were created by Sykes and Picot and the British and French to build and sustain their Empires that no longer exist because Turkey and India, and China, through the effort of Gandhi and Ataturk, Sun-Yat Sen and Mao, Brazil also, are now strong independent nations. The message is- if Germany can do it to get only 6% of energy imports from Hormuz straits, so can China and Japan. China and Japan get 90% of their imports from the Hormuz straits and there is no reason why China and Japan, Britain, India need to be so dependent on a region where disruptions have happened again and again for 40 years. If they do not want to change they can assume the responsibilities of keeping Hormuz Straits on their own. ...

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Lower volatility in oil prices as a result of a new stream of shale oil supplies at competitive prices is good for oil producers and for consumers. This report in the WSJ shows that volatility and swings in oil prices have gone down with the ability of shale producers to respond to price signals or geopolitical situations and increase supplies. Shale producers can increase supplies in months compared to the years it would take for oil producers in offshore drilling. The new technologies in shale rigs have tripled production since 2011 for the same number of rigs operating in the U.S. Permian Basin from West Texas to New Mexico. The core producers can now supply and be profitable at $40 a barrel.  Supply cuts from OPEC and Russia as currently the policy of both countries mean inventories do not rise too high. And geopolitical problems such as Yemeni attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the reinstated sanctions on Iran by the Trump administration that reduce oil supplies, Venezuela's problems, can be met by increased supplies from the U.S. shale industry in a short time to prevent inventories from dropping too much.      ...

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As OPEC members met again in June 2015 for the first time since the meeting in November 2014, there is a sense that OPEC no longer exerts the same influence on oil prices. There are 4000 oil companies in the U.S., says one U.S. State Department official, even if OPEC were to cut production the cuts could be matched by shale oil producers in the U.S. quickly increasing output. This is the new reality, say experts. OPEC expects to keep production at the same level of the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day in place for the 7th meeting in over 3 years. Algeria and Nigeria, both hurt badly by the drop in oil price, have called for cuts but failed to persuade the Saudis. With Russia unwilling to join a coordinated production cut, there is not much talk about doing this. The Saudis and Iraq have continued to pump more oil, with April 2015 production of 30.84 million barrels a day the highest monthly average since 2012. Other factors also remain in the minds of the Saudis and other producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar- policies on climate change, use of less energy and more from friendlier sources for the same amount of economic output demonstrated by countries such as Germany, advances in technology, energy saving transitions in emerging markets such as China and India....

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President Biden has praise for William Burns for good intelligence delivered with honesty and integrity on China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and emerging technologies. For three decades Burns has served in the US Foreign Service and performed work that is similar to that of another veteran diplomat Mr. Jaishankar of India. America turned to Burns to end the war in Afghanistan under president Biden, and now faces the Ukraine conflict with "clear straightforward analysis" given to the president, in the words Biden used for Bill Burns.

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Is a Win-Win possible for the US/Israel and Iran possible with the US/Israel strikes and operations started March 1, 2026. Not just for the American and Israeli people, but for the people of the Arab countries and for the people of Iran, and for the people of Russia. Greg Ip in the WSJ, Marc Thiessen in the NYT, and Bret Stephens of the NYT have looked at this in this way and offer an alternative view of what might happen, even though the tendency of the WSJ and the Washington Post is to be skeptical and the NYT with an opposition to all things DJT offering pessimistic version. First, all the anticolonial writings that were read by Khamanei in Moshaad are no longer the case as the US is no longer acting to secure some benefit to itself as the British and French colonial powers did for themselves or their oil companies in pre1960's Iran. Second the US truly wants to learn the lessons of 30 years of troubles in the region at every level of the DJT administration which is to extend a true olive branch to the subdued foe as it did to Germany and Japan under generals Eisenhower and McArthur. Third moderates in Iran could emerge as in Germany ( Adenauer) and in Japan Shigeru Yoshida who worked to adopt the 1947 Japanese Constitution under Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Behind the student protests and now national protests there is a realization in Iran that living perpetually under sanctions is not the way to live, that it can increase oil production, get investment in its industry, and raise standards of living, by doing something different. That nuclear weapons development, supporting movements overseas, perpetual conflicts with Arab states, these things have been tried and are not working. That this is the last chance to build a prosperous Iran before fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy over 10-15 years and which will make it that much harder to modernize and develop Iran for the benefit of Iran's future 110 million people. The gap with India will only widen as India catches up with China, the way China caught up with Japan. It is better to accept that these anticolonial writings that emerged from decolonizing Arab North Africa applied to the British and the French, and that the world is a different place today as the Indians and the Chinese have realized modernizing ancient societies with ancient religions is possible with the help of the Americans and the Europeans, working with the Americans and the Europeans. Theodore Roosevelt says in his Autobiography that one should be careful to judge people as the best have some negative aspects and the worst have some positive aspects, an experience he described in his dealings with progressives and those who opposed changes. Adenauer and Yoshida had contacts and dealings with earlier governments defeated in the war, but wanted to search for an entirely different path for rebuilding their countries having learned from experience. A thoughtful moderate Iranian outcome is possible as happened in Germany and Japan and which is beginning to develop in Venezuela.   ...

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DJT wants to see good relations with Russia and Russia to join the G-7 to make it G-8 nations as it was before Obama-Merkel. He sees Zelensky as an obstacle to peace early in the second term, that has changed now that Russia and Putin continue the war. By July 8 after calls to Putin and Zelensky, he now sees Russia as an obstacle to a negotiated settlement and the need for defensive shipments to Ukraine.

As this happens in the US Congress Lindsey Graham, senior Senator from South Carolina leads an effort supported by 80 senators to place sanctions on countries that support Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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Former German chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign minister Steinmeier are singled out for their policies that likely emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine. The DW.com says Merkel's tenure now shows deep seated flaws in leadership with her policies with Russia having gone too far in the other direction and leaving Europe in a vulnerable position. Merkel saw herself as continuing old policies from the period of SPD chancellor Willy Brandt of engaging with Russia, then called the Soviet Union. Yet looking at it closely the policy of Brandt was to reach accomodation with the eastern half of Germany, called the GDR, not to weaken Germany's position. By distancing herself from the US Merkel was in sense out on her own. Consider says DW.com that in 2014 Germany imported 36% of its gas from Moscow, by 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine it was 55%. The SPD under Gerhard Schroeder and Steinmeier following Schroeder share responsibility with Merkel for this dependence.    A similar integration of the German economy with China's economy happened under the 4 term administration of Angela Merkel. This can be seen in the port of Hamburg. This may have similarly emboldened China in its relations with neighbors in the Indo-Pacific region and with Taiwan. German chancellor Scholz is by one report reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms- "Europe The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." This historical account of the relations of major European states in the 5 centuries before the present period shows the Balance of Power as critical to the liberty and freedom that Britain and Netherlands as well as other countries were able to keep. Sweden was attacked in 1700 with sign of weakness, Britain faced challenges from France in 1700 and in 1800, and allied with the Hapsburgs and German states to maintain its democracy and way of life. Merkel of CSU and Steinmeier of SPD may have failed to realize this when they ignored the history of Europe. The WSJ report on the miscalculations on the German and French side with Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron show that all these leaders failed to grasp that by leaving the issue unsettled of Ukraine's NATO admission they had created the situation that was bad for both Russia and for Ukraine, creating seeds for serious differences that could lead to future conflict and war. By not respecting and giving room to the lessons of history these leaders in Western Europe have created the conditions for the very opposite of what they intended to do.  ...

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Three events made the US a continental democracy built out of the colonial Empires of the British, the French and the Spanish under four presidents- Jefferson with Louisiana Purchase, Polk settling the Mexican American War, Lincoln defending the Union, and his vice president buying Alaska from Russia. James Polk 1845-1849 was the 11th president of the US. At the time of the Missouri Compromise he deftly kept the Union together. A protege of president Andrew Jackson from Tennessee Polk also worked hard to create the bicoastal Nation the US is today by extending the work of president Jefferson who setup the Louisiana Purchase from Napoleon, to bring the new Republic's frontiers in the West to the Pacific territories that were part of the Spanish and British colonial Empires. For the northern frontier he settled on the 49th parallel with the British instead of 54 degrees parallel 40 minutes or 54-40 that was the slogan for the Polk 1844 election campaign taking the border to the northern frontier of the Oregon Territory.  Polk was faced with settlers in Texas who had set up their own state in the south the Texas Republic under General Sam Houston in 1836. A situation Polk handled by integrating the new Texas Republic into the new Nation and faced with a military taking control of Mexico in 1846 under General Paredes and confrontation with the US, leading the US into the Mexican American War 1846-1848. The integration of Alaska was completed under president Andrew Johnson in 1867- Johnson was Vice president under Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War- when he had Seward negotiate the purchase of Alaska from Russia for 7.2 million dollars in 1867.   ...