LyrArc Article Gist
ECB President Mario Draghi stated in his first speech to bankers and policy makers in Frankfurt that governments in Italy, Spain and other eurozone countries need to take stronger action and stop delaying. He said: "Where is the implementation of these long-standing decisions. We should not be waiting any longer." Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank stated Germany's view: "The economic costs of any form of monetary financing of public debts and deficits outweigh its benefits so clearly that it will not help to stabilize the current situation." The ECB continues to maintain limited purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds, leading to a small easing of bond yields, but has ruled out large scale purchases. ECB officials fear that taking the heat off politicians in Italy and other eurozone countries through large scale bond purchases will only lead to a lack of action on irresponsible fiscal policies. Meanwhile the debate in Germany continues with the mass circulation tabloid Bild saying calls for the ECB to act were "hysteria." The conservative leaning newspaper Die Welt says Merkel could still change her mind. Die Welt pointed out that Germans remember the hyperinflation of the 1920's as what can result from printing money to buy government issued bonds, but forget the period in the early 1930's under Chancellor Heinrich Bruning, another deeply troubling period, when deep austerity led to mass unemployment and a prolonged depression....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Editorial Board of the Washington Post on the challenges facing Mario Monti, the new prime minister, and the Italian people in 2012-2015.

LyrArc Article Gist
With yields on ten year Greek bonds reaching new highs, the Economist says it is time to go to Plan B. The German government wants to see something different from a continuation of the 2010 plan and merely loaning more funds to Greece. One option is for Greece to pledge privatization proceeds as collateral for new loans. Another option is the restructuring of Greece's debt, even though the German government is reluctant to impose losses on holders of Greek bonds. But Trichet and the ECB are opposed to any restructuring. ECB officials fear this could cause a crisis like that caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. And privately ECB officials say they could go so far as to refuse to accept Greek bonds as collateral for ECB loans if a restructuring goes through. The contagion from a Greece default could affect Ireland, Portugal, and impact the European banking system and the ECB's own balance sheet. Yet a sounder plan would be for European governments to come up with the funds to recapitalize hard hit banks, knowing that Greece will never be able to pay back its loans under the current plan. The IMF and the German government should push for an orderly restructuring of Greece's debt as the only workable solution, says the Economist....

LyrArc Article Gist
Unemployment in Spain edges up to 23.6% with 4.75 million unemployed in March 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
The government of Theresa May and the EU appear to be on a collision course with the release of the EU draft legal agreement that says Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and future arbitration or appeal would be under the European Court of Justice.

Ireland favors the EU draft and sees it as a default solution to avoiding a hard border with Northern Ireland if it becomes necessary. Theresa May and the DUP party of Ireland on whom the prime minister depends for her coalition government's thin majority support in parliament, both reject the EU solution. 

The Labor Party says it would solve the Irish border issue by entering into a new customs union with the EU, so that no checks are needed at the border for people and goods. The Labor party sees it as vital to prevent any effort to undermine the Good Friday Agreement that forms the basis of the peace in Northern Ireland.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
Buried in the Pew Trust study in 2017 showing that only 9% of French, 24% of British, 36% of Germans and 37% of Americans feel their children would be better off financially, is the divide between college educated and those with a high school diploma. Only one third of Americans are college graduates, and 69% of them are satisfied with the economy's condition. Of the high school diploma holders or the rest of the population, only 55% think so. This is likely to take a long time to correct, particularly with the loss of good manufacturing jobs and drop in wages in manufacturing of the last two decades,  the need for more technology and skills in the jobs environment, failing schools and families in the social environment.

LyrArc Article Gist
Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, which represents large global banks, describes the deal that was reached by eurozone leaders for restructuring Greece's debt in July 2011. He was one of the key negotiators. He says the agreement helps prevent contagion to Spain and Italy, and helps increase confidence in banks. By showing the losses are better understood and seen as manageable conveys a message that builds confidence for the banks and for the EU. And the effort to create the conditions for growth in Greece will make all the difference, he says. The Institute of International Finance estimates the deal will cost the banks and other investors $54 billion. Dallara says the turning point in the talks came in mid-July when European governments agreed to a plan for banks to swap Greek debt for new securities, backed by collateral.The focus then shifted to shaping the details. Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank and chairman of the International Finance Institute, used his skills to pull the package together with European leaders. Dallara has experience going back to his days working on the negotiations for the Brady deal for Latin American debt in the 1980's. The Brady deal was also designed around banks swapping the old bonds for new ones with longer maturities and reduction of principal, and lower interest rates. In return the banks were given guarantees of repayment removing uncertainty- through 30 year U.S. zero coupon bonds- and making it possible for banks to start anew. The reduction of principal in the July 2011 eurozone agreement is around 20%, the Brady reduction was much larger, around 30%. This suggests eurozone governments are putting up more of the funds in this situation with the weaker condition of banks which may need to be recapitalized at some point, and the preservation of the euro itself at stake....

LyrArc Article Gist
A decision reached at the G-2- meeting in Cannes requires Italy to allow the IMF to look at its books every 3 months to ensure that a $75 billion austerity package is being implemented. This comes as the general feeling is that prime minister Berlusconi's government lacks credibility on this issue. Chancellor Merkel of Germany disclosed that China and Russia do not want to commit funds to the rescue effort unless there is some assurance - such as the IMF overseeing the EFSF financing facility- that there will be no losses. Japanese government spokesman said Japan was also concerned about losses, especially if the EU would use the money to prop up insolvent banks. This comes as Italy's borrowing costs have increased to new highs in November 2011.

LyrArc Article Gist
Kramer, McIntire, and Meier of the NYT, provides this indepth account of Trump top campaign aide Paul Manafort's consulting work in Ukraine for Ukraine's president Yakunovych, ousted after protests in Kiev. Ukraine's newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau is looking into corruption in Ukraine's system, including corruption in the Yakunovych years. It is this corruption that has hurt Ukraine and other Eastern European countries in their move towards becoming properly functioning democratic states inside the EU or neighboring the EU. Much aid has been sent to Ukraine by Germany and the EU to help Ukraine develop a democratic and economic framework free of cronyism and corruption. Manafort's involvement with interests in Ukraine and Russia during a period of long and persistent protests in Kiev, followed by the ouster of Yakunovych and the war with Russia, when the policy of the U.S. and Europe was to protect Eastern European  member states of the European Union including Poland and the Baltic States, and reach some form of settlement in Ukraine, are controversial. Andrew Kramer of the NYT describes Manafort's consulting company's activities in Ukraine during this tense period, and how it may have have been counterproductive to the constructive efforts of the U.S. and the European Union. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan has coped with its long period of low growth by increasing the temp workforce. Loss of nontraditional workers jobs was 158,000 between October and mid February and accounted for much of the 220,000 jobs lost in the October to January period, according to the Japanese Labor Ministry. During the years that EU countries liberalized their labor markets allowing the hiring of temporary workers. During the 1990's Spain, Italy, Greece began allowing the hiring of temporary workers and workers on shortterm contracts. Germany allowed temporary workers and loosened labor laws earlier in this decade. By 2007 17% of the workers in the EU countries which share the euro were temporary workers. Many of these are young people or immigrants. But the labor laws in the EU for permanent employees remained the same and the worker protections were in place, including unemployment benefits and severance. This helped bring the EU unemployment rate down to 7.2% in 2007 during the upturn years. Now this whole process is going into reverse with the young and immigrants hit hardest. In Germany it costs 11,927 euros to layoff a permanent employee according to the Cologne Institure of Economic Research, and zero for laying off a shortterm employee. Now as the economy deteriorates the shortterm workers are being laid off first in large numbers. BMW has laid off 5000 shortterm workers. And short term contracts usually last only 4.7 months on average in Germany, about 12% of temp workers in Germany get hired as permanent workers. To get full unemployment benefits the workers have to have worked steadily for at least 1 year in Germany. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Exports have increased in Portugal to 41% of GDP in 2013 from 28% in 2008. Shoe companies exported 1.7 billion euros, according to the Portuguese Footwear Association, and shoe exports are a bright spot in the trade balance. Portuguese companies have invested in the industry to improve quality and are able to command higher prices. Portugal now expects 1.2% growth in 2014, according to EU and IMF forecasts.

LyrArc Article Gist
Both sides harden positions before the June 30th deadline for 1.5 billion euro repayment of debt to the IMF. Greece's prime minister Tsipras accuses the IMF of "criminal responsibility" for the pain of austerity programs in Greece. Eurozone leaders says Greece's default on its debt and exit from the eurozone is a possibility. The Economist points out that a Greek default and Greece's exit from the eurozone would be a mistake. It points out that this means repudiating debts of 317 billion euros, or about 180% of GDP. Yet the repayment is at low interest rates spread out over decades. Until the early 2020's interest rates are about 3% of GDP a year. In theory a devaluation would help exports, but Greece with its small trading position, may not see much benefit. The drop in nominal wages by 16% has not led to a surge in exports. The cost in terms of broken banks, sharp decline in savings, and collapse of confidence could be disastrous. The very people Syriza is trying to protect the poor and elderly, would be hit hardest, as the collapse in the currency would lead to a shift to a barter economy as in Argentina during its default crisis. For the European Union, the problem would not go away, as it would have to deal with a bigger problem of a failed state on the Aegean on the EU's southern flank. Syriza's gamble that this can be used to extract concessions by holding off till the last minute is failing, because it is leading Greece back to contraction after the small growth in 2014 under prime minister Samaras- with capital flight from the banks and investors leaving in a general fall in confidence. The management of the economy and negotiations by Syriza is now seen as incompetent and has jeopardized any difficult progress made....

LyrArc Article Gist
The collapse of the will of people around Yanukovych, including a deputy interior minister, as fighting units moved with weapons taken from an armory in Lviv towards Kiev, may have been the decisive event that decided the fate of the Yakunovych government. The deputy interior minister then negotiated with a protest leader Levus realizing that other than the front line of police the rest of the police were ready to abandon the fight. Levus then negotiated a safe corridor for the police to withdraw. As the Polish diplomat Sikorski came out to the square he found to his complete astonishment the police simply disappearing from the Square in Kiev. Hours earlier he had warned protesters that a crackdown was coming and they would all be wiped out, according to a report in the WSJ by Benoit, Norman and Fidler, 2/22/2014, so that they should accept a deal which would set a date for new elections but not lead to the immediate resignation of Yakunovych. That deal it also appears came after a Putin call to Yakunovych and not simply from diplomatic pressures, and it is probable that Putin had realized earlier than the diplomats that most of the police were not going to fight. Bringing in the army would have had dangerous consequences for relations between Germany and Russia in particular- as German public and chancellor Merkel felt strongly about the situation in Ukraine- and relations with the European Union and the U.S. Putin, Yakunovych, and even the EU diplomats may have missed the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement. Germany and chancellor Merkel, with her determination to make things come out right in Europe after a flawed history, gave hope to the protest movement. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The SPD's Peter Steinbruck's criticism of Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis. Speaking to the Bundestag Steinbruck said Merkel had wasted time and billions of dollars of taxpayers before committing to keep Greece in the eruozone. "You should have held this speech three years ago... Never has Germany been so isolated in Europe as it is today." He said Merkel was not being honest with Germans that to be part of Europe Germany had to take on some of the cost and that it was worth it. Instead she was riding the wave of negative opinion for the eurozone and at the same time trying to keep up Germany's influence in Brussels, creating a perception of a new kind of German "industrial imperialism." This comes as France's president Hollande expressed serious dissatisfaction with Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis in an interview with reporters of 5 European newspapers in October 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's finance minister, Tremonti, met with Jiwei, chairman of the China Investment Corporation, China's sovereign wealth fund. Italy's is trying to persuade Chinese officials to authorize buying Italian government bonds. This would reduce pressures on Italy's borrowing rates in world financial markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
The first signs of a return to growth are seen in the European automobile market. The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reports a 1.7% increase in new passenger car registrations for May compared to April 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ, says its a surprise the protest vote in EU parliamentary elections did not come earlier, considering 11% unemployment in Europe and about 50% youth unemployment in some countries. Italy's Renzi government did well in the elections with 41% of the vote. The CDU got 30% of the vote. The French UMP party getting 20% and the Socialists 14%, a poor showing in France compared to the Natonal Front 25%. UKIP Independence party took 27% of the vote in the UK, with Labor and Conservatives a close second and third. Overall the results in Italy and Germany salvaged the situation, says the editorial, by making the pro-EU European People's Party (EPP), the largest group. It includes the UMP in France and CDU in Germany, and has 213 seats for then next 5 years, the largest group in a 753 member EU parliament.

LyrArc Article Gist
France's CFDT trade union says both Sarkozy and Hollande have shown agreement with a plan for workers to show flexibility in wages and benefits in return for preserving jobs. This comes at a time when France's trade deficit is widening. It was 69.6 billon euros in 2011. Hourly labor costs in France are 34.20 euros, 14% higher than in Germany, where similiar wage restraint was shown by the unions during the last decade to reduce high unemployment. It is 20% higher than the euro-zone average, according to Eurostat. Now France is looking to adopt some aspects of the German model to improve competitiveness and reduce unemployment.