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See how dysfunctional today's politics have become in the way the Speaker in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. president expressed utter disdain for each other and their opposite political parties at the State of the Union gathering in the U.S. Congress. Trump focussed on the economic gains for the U.S. in trade and the economy, and sees impeachment efforts as unfair as not rising to the level of high crimes and demeanors defined for that in the U.S. Constitution. Pelosi and Democrats see Trump's style and manner as violating norms for politics followed earlier.  Harry Truman, a president in the fifties never got much respect from Republicans who saw his style and manner as too rustic and Missouri farmlike. Andrew Johnson a Republican during the early post Civil War period after Lincoln, without the education of the upper class was treated with disdain by Democrats. Interestingly both were chosen by icons Roosevelt and Lincoln. This time the focus of attention is a president who comes from outside, motivated to run in politics as he said in his speech in Congress by the wrongs the U.S. suffered from other nations in business and trade. Truman got attention from Roosevelt through the hard work to cut the extensive cost overruns and mismanagement in production for the war effort. Johnson for his loyalty to the Union from a Southern state, Tennessee. All seemed to shrug off the disdain without much discomfort and Truman was known to say- "The Buck Stops Here." ...

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This Weekend Essay in The Times by Tom McTague looks at the European Union skepticism about the US after the failure of three administrations under Bush, Obama and Trump to extricate America from wars,  concentrate on building its infrastructure and manufacturing, renewing the lives of workers and families that were neglected. That skepticism came from administrations in Europe that also failed the Europeans in much the same way with the neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, and little done for climate change under Schroeder and Merkel, Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron. The dependence on China for manufacturing and on Russia for energy for the EU and Britain made the situation even worse than in the US.  Al this has changed with the election of president Biden in the US, and Scholz with Habeck- Baerbock in Germany and with the recent elections in France upholding workers and families, acting on climate change. A false idea is presented about the Europe vs US and dominance as each is part of the free world alongside India, Australia, Japan, South east Asia, Latin America, French and English language Africa. This is why one has the G7 and G20 with countries like Argentina, Brazil and Indonesia critical parts of the free world. It is the ignorance of many officials in the EU more than the sentiments of the people of the free world in all these countries that leads to these false ideas about which country is dominant and skepticism - none are dominant it is through the unity of all and a shared vision in international rule of law, fairness, humility, respect for poorer nations. It is this that Kipling talked about in his poem "Intercessional," the lines repeatedly calling for the Lord's grace and for man to merit that grace with "a humble and contrite heart." It is also the spirit that so recently Mohandas Gandhi grasped and put forward for India and the world. Europeans talk about dominance- think about this for a moment, Gandhi merely asked for the right to move freely for Indians and Asians including Chinese at a meeting in 1908 where he gave a speech. The speech was on May 18, 1908, at the YMCA in Johannesburg and it debated the question "Are Asiatic and colored Races a Menace to the British Empire."  Not a word of ill will was uttered by Mohandas Gandhi even when talking about segregation in the speech. It is a humble and contrite heart that the Lord listens to. Both India and South Africa found a way out in a different way with faith in a higher authority, that even the British had not failed to address as Kipling clearly shows. ...

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It is not a story that most people grasp or understand- the long term effects of the US immigration surge of 2023 and its source mostly from Venezuela. The  US Congressional Budget Office says labor force in 2033 ten years from now will be larger by 5.2 million people and younger as a result of the immigration surge in 2023 from about 1 million immigrants each year in the 2010's to 3.3 million. About 2.5 million crossed the southwestern border in 2023. Much of it the result of the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and its middle and upper classes leaving the country. This was worsened by the US sanctions on the Maduro government including under president Trump, say experts in an adjoining NYT article on the 7 million people who left Venezuela to go to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile since 2012, then making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Something that could have happened under a Republican president if the US Congress could not reach bipartisan agreement on correcting asylum and parole policy. As a result of this surge US Gross Domestic Product  in 2033 will be 3% larger. When the large Asian economies are seeing a aging workforce, Japan for the last decade and China now following Japan, the US labor force will be younger than it would be without this unusual surge in immigration of the last 2 years. The federal deficit will be smaller at 6.4% instead of 7.3% in 2033 as immigrants will pay taxes on income. Another aspect of this larger infusion of immigrants is that after the pandemic shut down immigration entirely there were severe shortages in the hospitality and restaurant, construction, healthcare industries. And with the trillions of dollars in investment that the Biden administration is making with more factories - this will absorb most of the immigrant surge by 2033. With some positive effects in the competition with rising Asian economies China and India. Particularly consider with the younger demographic India of 1.4 billion people. It will mean more factories can be built in the US and there will be workers for these factories in the US at wages that keep the US economy competitive years from now in 2033. This is a sobering aspect of the current situation viewed from what will be seen by America's younger generation. And under the bipartisan compromise in Congress correcting asylum and parole policy that was shut down by the former president, Republican senators understood very well that the immigration surge of 2023 would have some constructive effects for the long term, while its effects on the short term would be mitigated by Biden's commitment to close the border in 2024. This did not happen, yet the future for America's younger generation is bright under the Biden plan for massive investment in manufacturing and jobs in the US, and with the millions of immigrants needed to fill the jobs that investment will create by 2033. It will make America with a younger work force than Europe or China, only India having a younger workforce in 2033. ...

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With the theme of championing the interests of the people left out in the last 2 decades under both Bush and Obama, left out my technolgical changes and world trade trends, left out by the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath of deep unemployment for older people especially white men, struggling economically, Hillary Clinton tells the Democratic convention, "I will carry all your voices and stories with me to the White House." She tells millions of Bernie supporters  that she has heard them loud and clear-  "your cause, is our cause." In this way Hillary Clinton sought to dispel any doubts about her in people's minds for not being forthright on questions related to a private email server and from earlier periods, and from overzealous fundraising. Telling people that on the things that really count and matter in people's lives, just as Bill Clinton did in his campaign at a similiar juncture- she will be there for them always, and always working to put their hearts up and centre, with her Methodist upbringing and her unmatched ability to work relentlessly in pursuit of worthy public goals. ...

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Cohn and Monkovic of the NYT show how the shift of blacks, hispanics, and white collar professionals is doing to the demographics in the eastern, coastal and southern states, and how this will impact 2016 and future presidential elections in the U.S. This includes North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and Florida. It means the electoral map may have changed by 2016 and 2020, as the less educated voters in rural areas are balanced by a growing minority and white collar vote in the suburbs and major cities of the South.

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The Trump administration sends an official notice to Congress that it intends to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty with Mexico and Canada. The new U.S. Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer served as Deputy Trade Representative under president Reagan in 1983. He says the focus of the negotiation will to promote economic growth and jobs by making improvements to the treaty. The notice does not mention major modifications of the type that were hinted at by president Trump earlier. The leaders of Canada and Mexico had asked president Trump to renegotiate. Republicans in Congress and business in the U.S. favor improvements instead of the drastic changes. Mr. Lighthizer's approach is stated in his letter that said "NAFTA was negotiated 25 years ago, and while our economy and business has changed considerably in that period, NAFTA has not." New provisions will be needed said Lighthizer for intellectual property rights, state owned enterprises, labor and environmental areas, with effective enforcement.  Because of the rhetoric and language used in the election campaign, it is important to note that Lighthizer has in the past negotiated favorable terms for the U.S. steel industry to prevent dumping from overseas. His style is the opposite of the president. He has stated- "I am friendly when negotiating. I am not theatrical. The art of persuasion is knowing where the leverage is." ...

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Ms. Annegret Kramp-Krarrenbauer, elected leader of the CDU party in 2018 with the support of Angela Merkel, will not run for chancellor in next years election and will resign from her position by the end of the year. She will continue as Germany's defense minister. After losses for the CDU in recent elections and the embarrassment of local CDU leaders in Thuringia supporting the far right AfD, AKK as she is known decided to step down. Angela Merkel has decided not to run for chancellor again. Germany is set to chair the EU in the second half of 2020, and Merkel is no longer seen as a leader of influence. The Nationalist Alternative for Germany AfD has gained votes in recent elections following the 2015-2016 migrant crisis, with large numbers of refugees from North Africa and Arab world landing in Greece and Turkey and walking to Hungary, Austria and Germany. Merkel's handling of the crisis with acceptance of a million refugees in 2015-2016 unsettled European and German politics. Why? One way of looking at it is that in the same way that the U.S. took in Chinese imported goods ending in the Trump tariffs war, at some point it just becomes too big to handle. That ended up at $1 billion a day in imports from China when president Trump called it off and accused Obama Democrats, Bush Republicans, of betraying the country. Putting it into perspective Germany with one fourth of the population of the U.S. took in about twice the number of refugees in just one year 2015-2016 that the U.S. took in 10 years 2005-2015. The U.S. took in 675,000 immigrants between 2005-2015. This is as if the U.S. took in something like 20 million immigrants in a short period of 1 year on an equivalent basis- though the cultural impact is even greater in a nation like Germany that is like Japan an historically immigrant averse nation. All this happened too quickly for Germany to handle for its fragile cultural fabric. Much of the initial outpouring of support and positive sentiment came from the sense of having gone through World War II and the refugees in that and the early post war period, the need to return in the same spirit support Germany had received. Over time it eroded support for the Christian Democratic Union and Merkel. That Merkel could have done this is itself a small miracle. Now the rebuilding has to begin. Adenauer's CDU and the socialist SPD party of Willy Brandt now have less than 50% support, only with the Greens Party do they make up 50%. The question now is can the CDU, and the SPD which has fallen to 14% in elections, make it back and what kind of future makeup political parties will have in Germany, how the social fabric can be restored. AKK's achievement is to mend relations between the liberal Merkel wing of the CDU and conservatives from Bavaria (CSU) over immigration.  Candidates for CDU leadership are Armin Laschet, Jens Spahn, and Friedrich Merz. Laschet premier of North Rhine-Westphalia has Merkel's support. Looking back too much attention was taken up by the euro crisis, and too little was done in the areas of infrastructure, inequality gaps, education, child care, under Merkel's leadership and of the preceding SPD years, much like what happened under Bush and Obama administrations in the U.S. where wars, economic crises led to neglect on issues that affect lives of ordinary working families. ...

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Freeman contrasts the speeches given by Obama and Trump, one in Cairo after becoming president, and the other in Riyadh. Freeman says Obama did not give enough credit to American leadership and progress on women's rights, and was not critical of Iran during a period in which sectarian strife has led to the situation in Syria and Iraq. 

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Ted Cruz is seen as the most pro-Israel of the Republican candidates for president. Pro-Israel groups are joining to fund his campaign for president after his win in the Wisconsin primary. Sheldon Adelson is one of the donors sought by the Cruz campaign. Paul Singer and the Ricketts family have funded super PACs that have financed the anti-Trump movement's advertising efforts, but not directly supported Cruz. Cruz is trying to change this following the win in the Wisconsin primary seen as the turning point in the election campaign. Cruz added to the bit of humor about the Cruz campaign on the late night show "Jimmy Kimmel Live," with this exchange: Kimmel saying that Cruz simply held out till these donors found someone they liked less than Cruz. "There you go. its a powerful strategy," said Cruz. Even backers trying to recruit new donors are aware of Cruz's ideologue reputation, saying he is still the "good designated driver" after the party. Cruz has put forward the economic message of Jobs, Growth and Opportunity, as he broadens his appeal outside the conservative values base following the Wisconsin primary....

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This report by Martin in the NYT points out that Ohio no longer plays a critical role in U.S. presidential elections. It was critical for a Bush win over Gore, and president Obama carried it by 2 points against Romney in 2012. It is critical for Trump to win. For Hillary Clinton other states are gaining importance as they better reflect the demographic changes in the U.S. and the mix with minorities- states such as Georgia, N. Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Ohio has not seen an influx of Hispanics as other states, and is now more white, more evangelical voters, and reflects a mix that was prevalent earlier. 

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Why is this important? Because America needs a future and investing in the future meets investing in new technologies and investing in infrastructure, and in mitigating cost of living for families that are struggling. Mr. Trump's claims on cost of living, oil and gas production, and job losses from electric cars at a rally in Texas and fact check: Oil and gas production is 12.9 million barrels a day compared to 12.3 million barrels a day during the Trump administration- source: Energy Information Administration. Energy costs are up a lot by $2250. (Mr. Trump said). Energy costs per household up $1520 not $2250 according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. $1520 compares 2022 with 2019 as baseline, $2250 uses Jan 2021 as a baseline when energy use dropped because of the pandemic. The Ukraine war and taking Russian supplies off the market pushed oil prices higher which were mitigated by policies of the Biden administration on how shipping of oil takes place in international markets setting a lower price for oil than what the Russians and Saudis were expecting. Autoworkers won't have jobs in 3 years because everything is going electric. (Mr. Trump said).It takes fewer workers to produce electric cars than fossil fuel cars. Yet the world is moving to electric cars and even companies like Toyota that lagged are falling behind. The 146,000 workers at GM and Ford secured a 25% wage increase over several years to meet rising cost of living with the support of president Biden on the picket line. No jobs are expected to be lost in 3 years and America is gaining leadership in electric car technologies to build a healthy automobile industry and well paying jobs for the future.     ...

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President Trump escalates the trade battle with China by increasing tariffs on $200 billion Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. The U.S. says China went back on its commitments in a 150 page agreement at the 11th hour or last minute, by deleting these commitments in all 7 chapters of this agreement. These are firm commitments sought by the U.S. in a number of areas of deep concern to the U.S. and the U.S. Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer had already conveyed the determination of the U.S. to not relent on this. In the past China was seen to go back on its commitments and the U.S. side now wanted to ensure promises were kept. The U.S. concerns cover- theft of intellectual property and trade secrets, forced technology transfers, competition policy, access to financial services and currency manipulation.  The situation has been building up fro a decade with the Trump campaign honing in on this issue of China stealing U.S. jobs, and factory closures in the U.S., because of unfair trading practices. It also led to Mr. Trump's winning election campaign in the American midwestern states. With China seen as gaining an unfair technological advantage over the U.S., most recently over 5G telecom networks, the U.S. is not likely to back down. The U.S. is less dependent on trade with China. China is more dependent on the U.S. and a lot of manufacturing jobs in China are affected by the U.S. tariffs. This is why president Trump has decided to take a strong stand, including putting on tariffs on and additional $300 billion of Chinese goods.   ...

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Following the fifth North Korean nuclear test DW.com talks with Rudiger Frank about the test and what this means. Frank says the negotiations with North Korea and efforts to limit the program so far have been a colossal failure. Tests have continued and without a change in strategy more tests will be followed by the usual condemnations by world leaders and further sanctions. Frank says this change in strategy would include recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, and getting North Korea to ensure the weapons are safe and secure in the country, getting a clear idea of what and where the weapons are. The International Atomic Agency would be asked to go in and make inspections. The next step would be to freeze the program at some level agreed to. This is a tough step to take but it only recognizes the reality of the situation, and continued development by North Korea of nuclear weapons if no steps for change are taken. 

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It can be a bit overwhelming, time for a pause, to close the Borders in Europe and in US, to do it together as a Nation. Republican Senator Lankford and senior members of Congress   negotiated the legislation to restrict immigration and close the southern border. It would be signed into law in January 2024 by Biden says Lankford in NYT after 30 years of inaction. The negotiated bill came up 2 months later in March by which time it was stopped by Trump Republicans as an issue for the election. Harris promise is to sign it into law, close the Border. Meanwhile in Springfield Ohio, population of 80,000 in 1960 declined to 59,000 in 2020 dropping 25% over the 60 year period with the decline of the Rust belt towns in the midwestern region of the US. A program that protects people from gang related violence in home country legally allowed 15,000 Haitian immigrants to settle in the city, people who now drive Amazon delivery vehicles and work in nursing occupations and in restaurants, in towns that have severe staff shortages. WIth the influx of refugees from Venezuela at the southern border, this has created anti-immigration sentiment in some parts of America, even as some of the refugees work to fill shortages in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas, as shown in the WSJ, that have decline in population and face severe staff shortages for bus drivers, restaurant workers, and hospital workers. Streams of refugees in earlier eras the Irish, followed by the Germans, followed by Blacks from the South, all followed this path, yet it was also a bit overwhelming, and at these times the nation took a pause. Europe is taking a pause- across Denmark, Sweden, France, the UK- and in the US there is sentiment on all sides for a long pause, to regroup, to reflect and focus on the national goals of binging up the middle class, the lower income classes, and the nation as a whole after the distortions from tech and economic theory induced distortions hurt the working people and families, and hurt rural areas. ...

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This NYT analysis of fund raising by the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2020 election campaign shows Republicans hardly raising any money from people with incomes over 250,000 and very little from incomes over $200,000 with most funding coming from the base white working class and lower and upper middle class. For Democrats fund raising is significant at the levels of income over $200,000. Geographically the Democrats get most of their funding from the east and west coast areas.  This reflects the changes in the parties starting in the the 2008 elections when higher income groups in software, finance, and in professions of law and medicine and Silicon Valley tech shifted to Democrats. The Democrats also held onto minority votes. In 2016 this changed with a sharp turn with tech on the west coast and finance professionals on the east coast shifting to the Democrats. The PPP agreement under Obama favored tech over the auto industry, and renewal fossil fuels such as solar were favored over the oil industry and fracking. In 2016 this helped shift the votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to Republicans. Older manufacturing industries, oil and fracking were supported by Republicans who pushed back against ceding global dominance in manufacturing to China. By 2020 these changes are now entrenched with white working class voters in industries decimated and communities destroyed by foreign imports mainly from China, supporting Republicans. Republicans under Trump have made regaining the manufacturing leadership of the U.S. that was the situation after World War II, a top priority for the U.S.  The minority vote shifted with Hispanics moving towards Republicans to a much larger degree than before. The urban rural divide is similar to Europe where the similar impact of foreign imports mainly from China have destroyed older industries and led to sharp decline in older towns and communities outside major cities. This is the situation facing the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy Spain, and Poland. Germany as a manufacturing country dependent on exports is also affected but to a lesser degree. The unwholesome aspect of this is that the larger urban areas are divorced from the rest of the country  and rural small towns, smaller cities. In some form reintegration has to take place. The vast majority of the working class classified in today's terminology as the less educated lacking a college degree and white are  paradoxically with Republicans, and the wealthy professionals and industries in software, finance with Democrats. Nothing makes this more evident than a quick look at the map of the U.S. with blue on the opposite coasts for Democrats and mostly red in between and in the south. This is unprecedented in American history. A rising tide that lifts all boats in the U.S. and the return of the U.S. to the position it held after World War II could change this in the next decade. ...

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The reckless behaviour of German elites in pursuing increased dependence on Russian oil and gas and ignoring American warnings is shown in this report in The Guardian. The first links to Russian oil and gas were started under chancellor Brandt in 1970. At that time the dependency on oil and gas supplies was much less than 10%. Dependence increased during the Schroeder and Merkel years to the extremes that exist today. Not much more even in the year of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. It was the misconception of chancellor Schmidt of the SPD in his differences of opinion with presidents Carter and Reagan on the risks of increasing dependence on Russian energy that marked this period. Schmidt believed Germany was right in its conviction that increased trade would bring peaceful cooperation without realizing that economic dependency is never a good thing. Poland had a skeptical view- German elites including business elites were being corrupted. Cheap Russian energy was being used in the Schroeder and Merkel years as a competitive business advantage without considering the risks involved and the admonitions of American presidents of the dangers. With Steinmeier of the SPD there was the immense guilt of the millions of war dead from the German invasion of Russia in 1941 that acted as a brake on evaluating the increasing dependency for energy that reached over 35% by the time he was foreign minister. The fall of the Berlin Wall was seen not as a result of multiple factors including the positions taken by Carter and Reagan, the losses to the Russian economy from the war in Afghanistan, and the general decline of the Russian economy. German leaders saw this as coming from the new relationship being built with Russia. German business and Schroeder- Merkel even allowed not just new Nordstream pipelines under the Baltic Sea but also transferred ownership of reserves, the gas and oil storage inside Germany to Russia's Gazprom. German Economy minister Habeck says the storage tanks were emptied so that there would be added surge for oil and gas prices after the attacks on Ukraine. This Guardian report ends by saying that Mr. Steinmeier still needs to show why he pursued policy of cooperation with Russia with increasing dependency to the point that a cut off of Russian oil and gas supplies would lead to gas rationing in Germany in the event of a sudden cutoff. Was it a form of sensible cooperation taking dependency to such extremes. Similar questions remain for chancellor Merkel. With the added question for Merkel about the increase in trading ties with China even after the Trump administration had warned of the serious risks to US and European competitive advantage in technology and manufacturing, and the increased dependence on a supply chain that was fundamentally weak as shown clearly by the pandemic.     ...

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Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou, is released after agreeing to a deal in a Brooklyn court hearing. Meng Wangzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies, admitted to wrongdoing in a fraud case. The Biden administration acted to remove a friction point with China, and China released 2 Canadians held by China since 2018, following Meng's release.

Meng is daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei. She was arrested at Vancouver International Airport in December 2018 at the request of the United States. The US Justice Department during the Trump administration had accused Meng and Huawei of a decade long effort to steal trade secrets, and evade Iran sanctions. In retaliation China arrested 2 Canadians who were released after Meng's release, after a long period in detention.

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Some of the crude rhetoric at Donald Trump rallies, and use of coarse language, according to the NYT. Working class and older Americans show their anger at a system that appears to have left them behind with slogans, stickers, T-Shirts. The idea of the wall figures in much of this and shows that the wall has become not jut about Mexico but a metaphor that captures this anger, that reflects this anger. Another aspect of the 2016 campaign is that those most vulnerable and most in need of help have not sought the comfort of knowing about programs to improve middle class and working class wages, incomes, to build infrastructure, create jobs, stop companies from shifting jobs overseas, plans for improving accesss to health care and education, to ask for specifics and delivery. This is the supreme irony of the 2016 election campaign that not enough attention is going to what will be done for the middle and working class, and what specifics will be delivered, in what time frame- which is essential for restoring the condition of the American middle and working class to where it was in the 2 decades after the Second World War. ...