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The American Treasury Secretary who handled the 2008 financial crisis, Henry Paulson, gives the new US financial reform legislation an incomplete grade. His main concern is that the too-big-to fail risk in the US banking system continues, and without clear rules a lot depends on the regulators. He does not see higher capital requirements doing much to ease that problem, and sees another crisis in a few years as inevitable. Former SEC chief, Harvey Pitt, gives it an F for failure or an I for Incomplete. He sees it as a boon for lawyers, because it is not clearly written and leaves so many loopholes, to a degree that is simply astounding. He says it does nothing in the way of preventing another crisis. Does nothing for transparency, nothing for monitoring and action by regulators, all factors that led to the crisis of 2008. Nouriel Roubini gives it a C+, because it does little to fix the reasons why securitization failed and caused the crisis, and in this way will keep credit creation and expansion in a weak state. He sees this financial reform bill as a failed effort that is laying the ground for the next crisis, with little action in the "too-big-to-fail" area, a huge dilution of what former Fed Chairman paul Volcker had advocated in the Volcker rule, and no real impact on the risky trading of derivatives. Bill Gross of PIMCO gives his frank assessment in no uncertain terms. A D+ for this bill. It shows how lobbyists for the banks still control Congress he says. It would have been better to let Paul Volcker take charge completely, than to have the lobbyists dilute the critical reform proposals. Simon Johnson gives it the lowest passing grade at MIT, a B. The only large change he says, is the Kanjorski Amendment, which give federal regulators the authority to breakup the large banks. But he cautions that it may require another crisis for the regulators and Congress to "get it," and do what they should be doing....

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It is not a story that most people grasp or understand- the long term effects of the US immigration surge of 2023 and its source mostly from Venezuela. The  US Congressional Budget Office says labor force in 2033 ten years from now will be larger by 5.2 million people and younger as a result of the immigration surge in 2023 from about 1 million immigrants each year in the 2010's to 3.3 million. About 2.5 million crossed the southwestern border in 2023. Much of it the result of the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and its middle and upper classes leaving the country. This was worsened by the US sanctions on the Maduro government including under president Trump, say experts in an adjoining NYT article on the 7 million people who left Venezuela to go to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile since 2012, then making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Something that could have happened under a Republican president if the US Congress could not reach bipartisan agreement on correcting asylum and parole policy. As a result of this surge US Gross Domestic Product  in 2033 will be 3% larger. When the large Asian economies are seeing a aging workforce, Japan for the last decade and China now following Japan, the US labor force will be younger than it would be without this unusual surge in immigration of the last 2 years. The federal deficit will be smaller at 6.4% instead of 7.3% in 2033 as immigrants will pay taxes on income. Another aspect of this larger infusion of immigrants is that after the pandemic shut down immigration entirely there were severe shortages in the hospitality and restaurant, construction, healthcare industries. And with the trillions of dollars in investment that the Biden administration is making with more factories - this will absorb most of the immigrant surge by 2033. With some positive effects in the competition with rising Asian economies China and India. Particularly consider with the younger demographic India of 1.4 billion people. It will mean more factories can be built in the US and there will be workers for these factories in the US at wages that keep the US economy competitive years from now in 2033. This is a sobering aspect of the current situation viewed from what will be seen by America's younger generation. And under the bipartisan compromise in Congress correcting asylum and parole policy that was shut down by the former president, Republican senators understood very well that the immigration surge of 2023 would have some constructive effects for the long term, while its effects on the short term would be mitigated by Biden's commitment to close the border in 2024. This did not happen, yet the future for America's younger generation is bright under the Biden plan for massive investment in manufacturing and jobs in the US, and with the millions of immigrants needed to fill the jobs that investment will create by 2033. It will make America with a younger work force than Europe or China, only India having a younger workforce in 2033. ...

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The anti-corruption bill for creation of a Lokpal agency passed the lower and upper house of the Indian parliament in December 2013. It was stalled for two years after the efforts of political activist Anna Hazare's protest movement for passage of the bill. With national elections approaching in 2014 and the ruling Congress party's image bruised badly in state elections of Dec. 2013, party leaders decided to support the bill. In the elections in the capital Delhi a anti-corruption party, Aaam Aadmi (for the common man), created only recently, won a major part of the seats. In India corruption hurts not only at the national and local level as in China, but affects the daily life of the common man as bribes are required from ordinary people for anything to get done that requires approval from the huge government bureaucracy. In that sense it takes a toll on economic development and affects the quality of services received by the vast majority of people, which is why the party calls itself "common man."...

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Ford CEO, Bill Ford's interest in the environment and his interest in lobbying the government for a delivery system for ethanol. He will meet President Bush at the White House. Mr. Ford says many of the 1.5 million buyers who own Ford's flexible-fuel vehicles either do not know they are able to run on both fuels, or are unable to find ethanol-based fuel at gas stations. He says the U.S. has only 600 gas stations with ethanol.

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There are about the same number of borrowers 3.6 million instead of 3.4 million yet over 10 years Parent Plus Loans have grown by 61% or $44 billion to a whopping $115 billion burdening parents and students. Yet no one mentions that it is the colleges that are causing much of this increase with their failure to control costs. The government is now stepping in and it is up to parents to do their homework on school value so that this overburdening with debt that colleges take for granted becomes a thing of the past. If colleges cannot control costs they should feel public dissatisfaction and be ruled out. Colleges and Universities act as if they are not in a market system economy where costs cannot be simply passed on, costs have to be managed or consumers of a service will turn down that product.

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Over the last 5 years 2021-2025 Americans who are more excited than concerned about AI has dropped from 18% to 10%, and Americans who are more concerned than excited has grown from 37% to 52%, in Pew Research surveys. Showing that self-interested tech companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI, Google are making loud claims for AI that do not reflect the views of the American people as a whole in 2025.

Americans by large margins in Pew Research believe AI will help in day to day tasks from weather forecasting to inventing new medicines. And by large margins of 40% Americans think AI will hurt ability to think creatively and form meaningful relationships and by 20% will hurt for making difficult decisions. This shows Americans -similar to people in China as reported- believe in using AI for ordinary day to day routine tasks, and are wary of AI and aware that AI's usefulness is limited to such routine tasks only.

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Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ shows a different view of the passage of the $280 billion semiconductor bill in the US Congress and the Biden Schumer negotiation for the $369 billion climate change and tax bill that was done at rapid pace in the span of 24 hours. It sees this from the view of the Republican party that hoped to present president Biden as a failure, unable to tackle inflation or achieve much for action on climate change, renewable energy, and building America's supply chain.  All this is happening quickly and shows the value of patience and persistence, and faith in the ultimate fairness of the American cause during a difficult time of war in Europe and rancor at home. It is not that 17 Republican Senators got played as the WSJ puts it, they voted for the $280 billion semiconductor bill on its merits and their ultimate faith in the fairness of the American cause and faith in America's workers and families, in its people. ...

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UK will spend $3 billion more through NHS payment to pharma companies in UK to get the US to cut its pharma tariffs on UK to zero for 3 years. This agreement with UK helps to protect $11 billion in UK pharma exports to the US. For the US it addresses it's complaint that Americans pay more for the same drugs because in Europe the pharma customers pay less, and has called for a correction.

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Tom Keene of Blomberg BusinessWeek talks to a panel of experts about the future prospects for the US and the global economy. The discussion was spurred by Carmen Reinhart's paper at the central banker's Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference. This paper forecasts high unemployment, low housing prices and very low growth in the US upto 2017. Shiller, Calomiris, Orszag, Kaufman and Bill Gross are part of this panel. Shiller's to do list main item is to get help to local and state governments by restoring general revenue sharing arrangements. Gross would focus on jobs that can hold up in a competitive economy, and put back some of the production that is taking place in the developing countries back into the developed countries, as part of a rebalancing; through a currency realignment. Kaufman would like to see a capital expenditure program by the US government, including infrastructure and education. Calomiris would like to see a setup of a new Republican Congresss to set the stage for post 2012 efforts. Calomiris favors cutting entitlements, cutting payroll taxes, but is not clear how this would help lower the deficit. Orszag points to feedback from business leaders suggesting a lowering of payroll taxes will not spur hiring, as the real reason for not hiring was low 1-2 % expected growth. Shiller, Kaufman and Gross see government efforts as realistically needed in the current situation....

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It will take some time for AI software firms (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google)  to generate returns. Yet AI enabling goods, the AI chipmakers (the hardware) made by Taiwan, South Korea and the US's Nvidia are making large profits from the boom in AI investments worldwide. South Korea's Samsung SK Hynix, Taiwan's TSMC and Nvidia in the US are chip makers making huge sales revenue in AI enabling goods- $2.6 trillion for Asian makers including Japan, $1.4 trillion for all US chip makers. This report in the WSJ says whether and when the AI software makers (Google, Microsoft and Amazon)  turn a profit the AI boom is changing the habits of ordinary investors, surging the market capitalization of TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix and Nvidia, and creating a big surge in stock markets in Asia and a bit smaller by comparison in the US. Total spending in 2026 for worldwide AI services, infrastructure and software was $2.6 trillion in 2026, going up to $3.5 trillion in 2027. The most astonishing aspect of this is how much the AI boom has increased the Asian stock market indexes- TAIEX index of Taiwan which has gone up 55% year to date Jan-June 2026 in value and South Korea's Kospi index which has increased 110% in value. Taiwan's TSMC shares doubled in value. Japan's stock market index Nikkei up year to date Jan-June 2026 32%.  Another aspect of this is that just one company TSMC makes up 42% - market capitalization as a percentage of the overall stock index- of TAIEX Taiwan's stock market index. And just 2 companies Samsung and SK Hynix make up 55% of South Korea's KOSPI Index. By comparison the US S&P up 11% in the same period year to date Jan-June 2026. This report looks at the speculative fever as ordinary investors in the middle and lower income classes in Asia in Taiwan and South Korea from cab drivers, insurance agents, software programmers and elementary school teaches, to high school students with parental sponsored accounts, are all engaged in speculative trading in AI related stocks. What all this means in terms of the cost of living issues, the price of oil and gas with Hormuz and the Memorandum with Iran to open it, the social fabric splintering, the cultural issues splitting electorates in the US and Europe, the migration issues, the issues on world trade is a separate question. It is similar to the railroads and steamship building in the 19th century and the construction of the interstate highway system in the 20th century (in the 1950's in US and in 2000's in China, 2020 in India) different aspects of the Industrial Revolution that overlap with the social and political changes of each period in history. Speculative booms in financial markets accompanied these changes till they returned to a degree of normalcy. It still required regulation, oversight, building the modern institutions of government that improved the economic life of nations and people during the FDR/Truman/Ike  period, and the period after the sixties that shaped the European Union and economic progress in Europe, similar changes in China and India, Brazil. And the many changes now needed in 2026 in the US, and Europe for reindustrialization, and modernization in India, continued development in China. ...

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The Lewinsky scandal broke out in January 1998. Bill Clinton admitted "an imprpper relationship" in August 1998. The vote to impeach Clinton was in December 1998. The acquittal took place in Jan-Feb 1999 with the lack of a two thirds majority of 67 votes in the Senate. The damage is not just in reputations. It is in distraction sufficient to lead to flawed legislation that lacked key provisions for the China US Relations Act of 2000 that was taken up by the Senate in May 2000. Could such a major step be taken in the last year of a lame duck administration? Republicans returned to the White House in December of 2000 with George Bush. There were no provisions in the China Relations Act for abuse of the status after joining WTO through unfair trad practices. The result is millions of jobs lost and the entire manufacturing base of the US and Europe shipped to China by 2019. Under Xi Jinping China returned to an adversarial relationship with the US on the issues of Hong Kong and Taiwan. It could have done serious damage to the 1.4 billion people of India as the gap between China and India opened up dangerous security implications for South Asia, a time when governance model of the Nehru era had failed by 2014 leading to fragmentation of the kind that happened in China when Japan had surged ahead in the 1920's and 1930's leading to the devastating war and Japanese invasion of China in the 1930's by provoked incidents. It shows the grave consequences of poor governance including the periods under Bush and Obama that led to decisions to get into wars in remote mountainous and desert regions. A series of such events can as shown by Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University, that can lead to permanent decline for regions and nations. Under both Biden and DJT an effort is underway to respond to these challenges. ...

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Over 4 million Italians are preparing to get back to work after 8 weeks in lockdown. Yet they face a major dilemma. How do you get back to work when schools and daycare centers are closed till the fall? They have to first figure out who will look after the children. Starting May 4, manufacturing and building businesses will reopen if following social distancing guidelines. Followed by shops, and public venues on May 18, and restaurants hairdressers on June 1. Other countries will be looking at how the reopening is tackled in Italy, and the problem of who takes care of children will also come up in the U.S. and other countries also. Grandparents were widely accepted as a solution for childcare in Italy. Yet this raises many questions about the safety of the grandparents and increases anxiety for the parents. The Italian government is providing financial aid to families for babysitting and more parental leave but this does not cover the costs. As they tackle this problem parents face additional stress and anxiety. ...

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The failure of three layers of quality checks Boeing are shown here in the WSJ video after failure events on airline flights. Two CEO's step down. What is the real problem? It is that the company is run by executives trained in finance and accounting and have too little of a background in the workplace where the manufacturing and assembly components is taking place or grasp of what it takes to turn out quality products by workers on the line. The basic approach is flawed because it is not quality checks that build in quality into a product but the workers on the assembly line who have to be trained and the investment made in quality processes to turn out a quality product. This has long been a focus in the earlier days of America's industrial revolution till the focus shifted to finance in the US and the focus on manufacturing shifted to Asia, to Japan, China and now India. It will take a complete shift in America's company leadership to hands on CEO's who are with and understand the workers on America's assembly lines, who can live some days and nights with workers on the production line to see and feel the problems first hand. This will take a decade, and for America as Jake Sullivan said at Brookings for president Biden and his team- this is a fight we must, and we will achieve. ...

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As the federal revenues rise to about 18.1% of GDP (close to historical rates after return to growth) and outlays to offset the effects of the 2008 recession diminishing, the deficit is forecast to drop to 3% of GDP in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, close to the average for the last 40 years. The deficit is estimated to be total $514 billion for fiscal year 2014, declining from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation) of 3% is forecast for 2014-2017. In 2018 and the years to 2024 the deficit will increase because the pace of growth slows, and spending will increase- slower growth of the labor force as the population ages, increasing health care costs, subsidies for health care, and increasing cost to service debt. Outlays other than for health care, Social Security and interest payments on debt for year 2016-2024, are set to be the lowest percentage of GDP since 1940, according to the CBO report in 2014. Debt will increase to 79% of GDP by 2024 from an estimate of 74% for 2014. CBO projects unemployment only slowly decreasing, remaining above 6% till late 2016, with the rate of participation in the labor force- lower now because many people have opted to not look for work discouraged by the job prospects- slow to recover....

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Republicans wanted to see money spent in the states on the idea that states best knew where needs were. Democrat Clinton called it "ending welfare as we know it," and signed the bill for TANF where $16 billion was sent to states in anti poverty programs and $15 billion added to this by the states. This is how TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) started under Clinton in 1996. It was put under Department of Health and Human Services. A lot of latitude was given to states on how to spend the money. In 2026 much of this money is not spent wisely. GAO government agency audits show 37 states had 56 severe deficiencies with "opaque accounting practices." This includes Florida, Louisiana, and Connecticut. The Government Accountability Foundation calls the lack of accountability "fraud by design," saying that one fifth of the $31 billion never reaches the people it was intended to benefit. Both Republican and Democratic states are not using the funds the way they were meant to be used. Needy families getting help have come down from 1.9 million in 2010 to 850,000 in 2025.  ...

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A states attorney generals lawsuit filed against Google states Google operates a monopoly that harms advertisers and publishers by lowering sales of publishers and charging inflated prices to ad buyers. Cases will go on trial in 2023. The Justice Department and 35 states attorney generals have a separate antitrust lawsuit against Google's search services. Democrats and Republicans in the Senate are pushing forward a bill that would treat Google search engine like a railroad operator making it illegal for it to give an unfair advantage to Google products and charge inflated prices by distorting the markets. This report in WSJ shows the way Google ran a series of programs named Project Bernanke, Reserve Price Optimization and Dynamic Revenue Share, to distort the normal operation of markets so that Google obtained an unfair price advantage. Bernanke program was operated between 2010 and 2019. In some cases the lawsuit says publisher revenue was reduced by 40%, according to internal company communications quoted in the complaint, as shown in this WSJ report. ...

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It has to be said that both McCarthy and Biden have shown patient leadership and an optimism about America in getting to an agreement on spending and the debt ceiling in May 2023. They are not taking chances as they sell the deal they made to their party in Congress. Biden feels confident that the agreement will make its way to his desk to be signed and he had spoken to McCarthy on Sunday afternoon "to make sure that all the T's are crossed and the I's are dotted." McCarthy says "more than 95% of those in the Conference were very excited. We are the first Congress to cut voter for cutting spending year after year." The deal basically freezes federal spending at 2023 levels till 2025 and allows some increase in defense spending and veterans benefits. Dusty Johnson Republican of South Dakota says Republicans will overwhelmingly support it. He says not much was expected from the Freedom Caucus whose support was not expected. Senator Mike Lee of Utah and Rand Paul of Kentucky do not support it, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina thinks there is not enough money for the Navy in the agreement. ...

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42 year old Jason Smith of Missouri will head the powerful House Ways and Means Committee in the US Congress. He is an ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy and one of the youngest  persons in this position. He will help form new trade, tax and health policies for Republicans.

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Apple's senior vice president Eddy Cue, says all of the textbooks on the iPad will be priced at $14.99. The way this works is that McGraw Hill instead of selling the textbooks to public schools for $75, will sell the book to a student for $15 for one year. At which point he can keep the digital copy but cannot resell it or pass it along to another student. New students will have to buy a new digital copy. Apple will get a cut on sales which could be about 30%, some of this will be made up from the absence of printing and distribution costs for McGraw Hill.

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The efforts by the Republican Senator Lankford of Oklahoma with the help of Senator Graham of South Carolina, Senator Tillis of North Carolina, and other Republican senior senators, to get a immigration bill through the US Congress that president Biden supports to close the border with Mexico immediately after its passing, is the subject of this video in the WSJ. It says this is the only solution for the immigration crisis not waiting another 12 months to take action. The problem is the parole and asylum policies of the US which need fixing, says Senator Lindsay Graham, the senior Republican in the Senate. The bill would do just that, yet faces opposition from Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana in the House of Representatives who says the bill would be dead on arrival in the House, making it inexplicable.

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Former president Trump's idea of a loan provision was included in the final bill that passed for Ukraine aid in the US Congress. 

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Most of the comments to this editorial in the Journal attributed it to the editorial writer's lack of understanding of local conditions in India. The editorial writer would have to read carefully the draft of the Indian Congress government's anti-corruption bill and understand each of the clauses in the light of local conditions to realize why they were drafted - to make the anti corruption body totally ineffective. The Hazare bill couod be improved but not by taking out its powers in the light of local conditions and rendering it meaningless, which is why there is strong support from public opinion among students, small businessmen, housewives, farmers and the general public for an effective version of the bill.

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This WSJ report shows how the debt ceiling negotiation were conducted and the process that made it possible to reach an agreement since the State of the Union address by president Biden on February 7, 2023. It started with Biden getting unanimity right on the floor of Congress during his speech about protecting Medicare and Social Security. The Republican strategy was to pass the legislation on spending that did not specify where cuts were to be made yet used 2022 spending levels with a 1% increase. The deal was to be for three years and passed the spending bill with an increase inthe debt ceiling. Till that time the Democrats decided to not enter negotiations.  Biden and McCarthy then had to choose who would represent their side in the long negotiation process that lay ahead till June 5. Progressive Democrats called for invoking the 14th Amendment that allows the government to continue functioning and pay its bills. Biden chose not to take that route. Respect for the other side, a prepared script are an important point in negotiations. To get results something even more important is essential flexibility and a plan, Plan B. Trust began to develop between McCarthy and Biden. Biden and McCarthy did not any time engage in acrimonious description of the other side. At one point when Biden was in Hiroshima for the G7 meetings Ricchetti on the Biden side and Graves on the Republican side began to feel the frustration. Biden decided to fly home early from Hiroshima. He was constantly in touch with his negotiators Steve Ricchetti, a trusted aide, and a cabinet official the Budget Director Shalanda Young. Graves a long time trusted adviser of McCarthy headed the negotiations for McCarthy.  Shalanda Young and Garrett Graves are both from Louisiana and Graves says he used to work out with Young's dad in the same area. This had a positive effect. It also reduced the tensions in the negotiations so that it could be said this was the calmest negotiation from either side that has been seen in the US  for a long time and bodes well for America's future and for its people, far beyond any concessions made by either party.  Biden made clear at the outset what he could accept without leaving it hidden- he would agree to some work requirements, he would not agree to work requirements for Medicaid. Others in the Democratic party conveyed how distraught they were with efforts to impose stringent requirements for federal food aid during a cost of living crisis when the Republican positions ruled out any new taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In the end Republicans agreed to keep spending limits for 2023 for two more years into 2025 when they would be increased by 1%. Democrats offered to cut (Income Tax) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) spending to increase IRS staffing from $80 billion to $70 billion. Biden said "nobody got everything they wanted." It would have to be passed in Congress with the support of moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, with members holding extreme positions among Republicans and Democrats opposing. The two parties coming together after a long time to meet the real challenges ahead for the American people. ...

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Germany faces a huge shortage of workers. Even without the current loss of workers in sectors such as restaurants, hotels, airports, elderly care and other sectors, the Germany economy loses 350,000 people every year a the baby boomer generation born after World War II retires. Today there are 1.7 million open jobs in Germany. By 2035 there will be seven million fewer workers, according to labor experts.  No longer can Germany depend on Eastern European countries to fill shortages of workers. Incomes are growing in these countries and there are demographic changes in these countries. Some say the party is over. Skilled labor is in short supply. In 2020 a law was passed to get  the 400,000 foreign workers Germany needs each year to come and stay in Germany, says this report in DW.com. The number attracted? Only 30,000 which officials called a "disappointment." The law will be changed to open up the labor market to those with a contract but no recognized certification for the job, so that companies could train employees after they join. ...