LyrArc Article Gist
Richard Thaler, a Professor of Economics at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, on the reasons why millions of homeowners under water- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth- have not defaulted in large numbers. In places like Nevada nearly two thirds of homeowners are under water. Changing a home, changing school for children, losing one's credit rating, social stigma. He points out that the costs are outweighed by the benefits of getting out of an underwater mortgage, and research has shown this is contagious once the process of defaulting has started. So once the neighbors are defaulting its much easier to do so and the proces picks up momentum, the psychic costs simply decline. So he says the result is that we may face a tsumani of strategic defaults. Professors Posner and Zingales of the University of Chicago have a proposal. Banks should be required to provide loan modifications in neighborhoods with home prices having dropped over 20%. Banks would reduce the payment by the average price reduction in the area and get in return 50% of the average gain in prices when the house is eventually sold. This requires Congress to pass legislation....

LyrArc Article Gist
A Peterson Institute of International Economics study on the TPP trade agreement shows it would reduce growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector by a fifth, according to this report in the NYT. Workers incomes and job losses in manufacturing are a key concern for voters and account for the surge in polls for Trump and Sanders in the U.S. presidential election of 2016. All four leading candidates Clinton, Sanders, Trump and Cruz oppose the TPP agreement. Congress will wait till after the election to decide. This is a big issue today because about 5 million jobs have been lost in 1977-2014, according to the Alliance for American Manufacturing. The Peterson study predicts job losses of 50,000 a year, yet another study by Tufts University predicts job losses of 450,000 a year. Another study by the Economic Policy Institute study shows other damaging effects such as labor's share of national income declining from the TPP.

LyrArc Article Gist
William Burns, a former Deputy Secretary of State, and a former ambassador to Russia 2005-2008, looks at the U.S. and European Union relationship with Russia following the expulsion of Russian spies in 2018. He says the U.S. and the European Union should take strong action, yet hopes this is a passing phase so that a healthier relationship can be built with Russia in the long run through diplomatic channels. Expressing views expressed by former president Obama and other experts, Burns says Russia lacks the alliances and broader support that the U.S. and European Union have, and is much smaller than the larger economies of the Western alliance. Under Putin a strong interventionist position has made Russia look better at home but may not be the best for Russia in the long run, says Burns.   Burns calls for stronger sanctions on the economic elite and business leaders under president Putin. Yet the sanctions have not deterred president Putin and a long run solution needs to be found, including issues such as Ukraine and issues that affect the Russian economy so that the change in relations since 2014 can be reversed. After the Berlin Wall collapsed hopes for integration of the Russian economy into the West were raised yet were not realized for Russia in the years following the Yeltsin government and the Russian economy suffered, first during that period and then during emerging market crises. Russian disillusionment with the West was followed by a more inward looking economy under Putin to help stabilize the Russian economy, accepting devaluation of the ruble to make the Russian economy more competitive in a period of low oil prices. Foreign investment collapsed following the Ukraine crisis but the Russian economy adapted to the shock from oil prices. This was followed by efforts to preserve these gains with an interventionist policy that made the Putin administration look better at home and win popular support with strong action in Crimea and Ukraine. This interventionist policy has played out too far with the meddling in U.S. and European elections creating a backlash that is now taking place. With the European Union, having a traditional policy of restraint and good relations with Russia, openly questioning Russian policy under Putin. Much of that period when Russia responded first to the collapse of the Berlin Wall with the collapse of the Russian economy, and in the following decade facing emerging market crises and collapse of foreign investment -which created a more inward looking Russia under Putin in his third term- is shown in Lyrarc.com. In some ways the Russian response in Ukraine, the effort to bolster popular support at home in elections, and the interventionist approach are linked to the efforts to find a Russian response to the economic crises Russia faced since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Seen in this way a shift to better relations is still possible as a broader perspective is gained.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ's Laurence Norman talks to Yukiya Amano, head of the UN agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has the responsibility of verification and inspection of Iran's nuclear development and facilities. Amano describes the issues raised by a 2011 report which outlined 12 sets of concerns to which Iran has to explain, a condition included in the final nuclear agreement. Iran has to respond by mid-August, IAEA then responds, and does work in Sept and Oct, and submits its report by Dec. 2015. Yamano says he has to fill in all the missing pieces in this jigsaw puzzle to get a full picture of Iran's nuclear development. Iran has denied access to military sites and Mr. Amano couldn't say if he has access to the Parchin military site. A concession that was made in the agreement is the long interval of three weeks before access to a particular site that arouses suspicions-the agreement gives Iran the right to appeal an IAEA request to visit such a site to a special commission. The U.S. and its European allies have a majority on the commission yet three weeks are allowed in which Iran could move material to some other location. For critics the question will be why such a concession was needed if Iran truly has decided not to develop nuclear weapons technologies. The U.S. president's response at a news conference on July 15, 2015, was that with the laws of physics the U.S. monitoring tools would detect nuclear activity at that site. The agreement also gives Iran an earlier than planned lifting of a ban on sales of arms and missiles and missile parts if the IAEA says Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful. Iran could conceivably wait till the ban is lifted and its economy in a much stronger position to withstand any future limited sanctions to pursue nuclear weapons development. This would have delayed development for a few years during which time the hope is that Iran has changed into a more peaceful nation pursuing economic development in its region, yet even if this is the case as as happened with India and Pakistan it could still pursue nuclear weapons development. The alternative is a status quo till a better agreement is reached with the leverage of tight economic sanctions and continuing dialogue during which time Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, or the use of force to prevent this. Iran added the arms embargo issue during the last weeks of the negotiation in June, a controversial move on Iran's part, as this may have complicated the picture with ballistic missiles technology exports to Iran approved after 8 years in the final agreement, compared to the agreement reached in April 2015 which made no mention of the lifting of the arms embargo. Iran played on the notion that if Zarif returned to Iran without an agreement hardliners including Khamanei would veto any agreement, yet this could just be the Iranian negotiating strategy. U.S. president Obama stated at the July 15, 2015 news conference that it would be hard to hold sanctions for longer. Critics might argue that China was already benefitting from the small easing of sanctions by increasing Iranian oil imports by 30% in 2014, and would have less incentive to withdraw from sanctions, as it is dependent on the U.S. and the EU, major markets for its exports and access to technologies. A WSJ/NBC poll in July shows almost half of the people polled in the U.S. saying they do not know enough to express an opinion, a steady 36% support an agreement, showing that the public has not been educated and taken along during the different steps in the largely secret negotiations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Stanley-Becker of the Washington Post looks at the story of Horst Kasner, Lutheran pastor in East Germany, Angela Merkel's father. In 1954 when Angela was born, her father moved the family to East Germany, then called the German Democratic Republic. The family settled in 1957 near the town of Templin in the Brandenburg countryside. He had an idealism based on the Lutheran faith and believed at the time that it was possible to build a East German Protestanism that reconciled with the professed socialist ideals of the GDR. Over three decades that faith was tested and by 1990 Kasner was known for his dissent to the state repression practiced by the GDR limiting free expression and religious beliefs. He worried about the domination of economic thinking even in the churches after the reunification.   Angela Merkel was close to her mother, Herlind Kasner, who joined the Social Democrats after reunification. Her brother joined the Greens. Merkel joined the movement called the Democratic Awakening in 1989, which merged with the Christian Democrats after reunification. Horst Kasner died in 2011 about 6 years after Merkel became chancellor. Speaking at a church in Templin in 2014, Merkel said what she believes- "God created every human being. We should strive for perfection. But we can make mistakes." To some Merkel remains inscrutable, hard to make out. This may be because she retains some of the thoughtful way her father meditated on what life was about and how best to live it.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain released reports by audit firms that showed 62 billion euros would be needed to recapitalize the affected parts of its banking system. This is below the 100 billion euros in rescue funds offered by the EFSF, the eurozone rescue fund, in loans to the Spanish government. The Spanish government is pushing for direct aid to the banks to cut the knot between the banking risk and sovereign risk that is pushing up the yields on Spanish bonds to 7% in June 2012. Spain's 3 largest banks will not be accepting aid funds- Banco Santander, BBVA, and La Caixa.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Supreme Court said it will hear the Trump travel ban case. It said in an unsigned opinion that part of the request by the Trump administration to stay a lower court ruling would be granted. This part of the request relates to "foreign nationals who lack any bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the U.S.", only these people would be prevented from entering the country till the full case is heard by the Supreme Court. The revised travel ban related to 6 mostly Muslim countries for 90 days.

LyrArc Article Gist
Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The new Social Studies, Civics and English Reading curriculum for K-12 in Texas Schools looks at a broader approach to reading of classics which have been largely bypassed in an erroneous approach to reading focused on whatever is in contemporary trends. The current approach is leading to a generation of children who do not know much about the Nation's history and culture and form of government, about the English language and its prominent American authors. One draft includes books like “The Very Hungry Caterpillar” by Eric Carle for kindergartners, “A Wrinkle in Time” by Madeleine L’Engle for seventh graders and the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech for eighth graders. Frederick Douglas and Langston Hughes are also included. It also has passages from the Bible, including a meditation on Love from First Corinthians.  All this is happening as the Nation has a new Test alternative to ACT and SAT called the CLT Classical Learning Test which provides longer reading passages from English and American Literature and history, science, technology, world knowledge, far better than ACT or SAT. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
France's president Hollande says about Greece during a visit by Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, that the Greek government must move forward with economic reforms, "while making sure that it is tolerable for the population." He also said he was "saluting the Greek people for their painful efforts of the last two and a half years." Samaras says in an intervew: "Greece is like a swimmer who is underwater for a long distance and needs to come up from time to time for some air, we need to be able to take a breath."

LyrArc Article Gist
Pharmaceutical companies in the US will be required to provide rebates to buyers if they increase prices above the inflation rate. This is one of the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 also called the Climate and Tax bill. Medicare recipients total out of pocket costs for drugs will be capped at $2000 under the Biden bill.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial points out a big concern in the third quarter 2012 economic growth figures- the figure showing non-housing related investment contracting by 1.3%. It says the U.S. borrowed $5 trillion and all it got in return was 1.7% economic growth- 1.7% being the growth in U.S. GDP for the first 9 months of 2012. It also points out that the growth came from consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's money printing. The consumer spending would be hard pressed to continue if incomes remain stagnant without the capital investment and hiring from the private sector. Government spending accounts for 0.7% of the GDP growth, and estimates for private sector growth in output is about 1.3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
It reduces oil prices a little bit so why not let India buy Russian oil for 30 days- Scott Bessent announcement March 5 2025. Bessent said for the US- "India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage."

LyrArc Article Gist
How their strains in the the the Toyota manufacturing system and how Toyota's quality is not what it once was. Its image as a environment conscious company is also suffereing with its attempt to stall new fuel economy legislation in Congress like th Big Three American companies. And new hybrid engines are being introduced in joint development between Mercedes, BMW and GM so the novelty of Toyota hybrid may just wear out. And competitors from Germany and the US are now working harder to reduce Toyota's advantage by producing quality cars. As styling design and creative innovation has not been Toyota's strong point the Americans and the Germans have an opportunity to come up with something new. Even the incentives Toyota has to offer to sell its cars have now come up to what the Gm, Ford and Chrysler had to offer. According to CNW Marketing Research Toyota's dealer incentives have almost tripled in the last 3 years to an average of $3752 per vehicle. This is not a good sign. And we may have reached a point where the difference in quality between the GM Malibu and the Honda Accord from the Toyota Camry may really not be that much. No surprise that this is shaking up Toyota. The "Customer First Initiative" in response to quality issues and recalls is to have more power put into the hands of the chief engineer for any product launch to ensure quality problems are addressed early. And the dealers have EN2 (everything matters exponentially to address quality issues at the dealer level. And there aren't enough sensei or teachers of the Toyota Production System to meet the rapid growth of plants and the Global Production Centre was designed to meet this need by training teachers in an accelerated way in Japan. But there is a sense that a lot of the old Toyota magic may be fading just as Toyota reached te peak of its popularity sometime last year or 2005. Not because Toyota hasn't made the effort but because the whole dynamics of the car industry keep changing and Germans and the Americans are also pushing harder nowadays....

LyrArc Article Gist
After energy shortages in 2021 the Chinese government decided to increase coal power projects. In 2023 these coal power projects are increasingly seen as backup sources of power with rapid increases in the production of renewable solar, wind and nuclear energy. China has nearly reached the point where half its energy is coming from renewable energy sources. Coal power companies are not profitable compared to renewable power companies. The result is that China's total emissions of carbon are declined in 2022 by 1.5%. China's power demand is growing by 6% each year, yet more of the increase in demand is being met through renewable energy expansion with coal being set as a backup source. Soon many of the power projects started after 2021 may be cancelled because they are losing money.

LyrArc Article Gist
Silicon Valley Bank's investments in Treasury's did not appear to be risky yet these investments were in long term Treasury's that lost value when interest rates were increased by the US Federal Reserve. The market value of its assets declined leading to startups and other tech companies affected by the downturn to withdraw assets all at one time from the bank. The withdrawals amounted to about $42 billion last week leading to its collapse from running out of cash to pay depositors withdrawing their money. Unlike the bad loan problems of banks in 2008, a whole combination of such factors led to its collapse. With the collapse the FDIC will issue receivership certificates for the $155.1 billion in deposits  that were large and did not qualify for FDIC insurance.

LyrArc Article Gist
A second survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research shows an increase in the number of people estimated to be affected. The survey sampled people from 70 districts in 21 States in India. Overall prevalence using this method is high at about 21.5%. India has confirmed 10 million cases. Children and young are also affected.

Dr. Balaram Bhargava, Director General of ICMR, says "The message is that large proportion of the population remains vulnerable, Vaccines are necessary, and there can be no complacency with regards masks, social distancing and hand hygiene." India has so far not seen the kind of second wave happening in Europe and the US, yet the risks remain, showing the need for rapid implementation of the vaccine program for 300 million in the first part of the vaccination drive.

LyrArc Article Gist
Meticulous preparations in France for the Olympics. This report shows Macron at the Olympics Aquatics Centre built at cost of 188 million euros. The budget in 2012 Olympics in London overspent by 200%, France will do it for about 20% overspend, says the Sports Minister. Macron says "Everything is a cause for vigilance and attention, nothing is a cause for worry or paralysis, that is my and our state of mind." When the Olympics open on July 26 this year it will be on the river Seine, with hundreds of flotilla boats. It is a unique effort as even the housing complex was built so that after the Olympics are over the housing could be reused to serve residents of a poorer neglected suburb of Paris. The river Seine is being cleaned up for swimming

LyrArc Article Gist
This time there is less exposure for foreign investors as the Turkish lira drops because Turkish holdings were reduced. Turkey bondholdings have come down by half and holding of Turkey stocks down by 40%. The decline of the lira also reduced Turkish assets in benchmark emerging market indexes - in MSCI to 0.2%, and in JPMorgan's bond index to 1.1% from 5%. 

So far the situation in Turkey has not spread to other emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil. With the Fed looking at raising interest rates earlier than planned, slower growth in China that takes in developing country commodity exports, emerging market assets are under some pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index was at a 15 month high on Nov. 24 and continues to be close to this.

LyrArc Article Gist
UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3 billion in a takeover arranged by the Swiss National Bank, central bank of Switzerland. The Swiss government also stepped in to provide 9 billion Swiss francs in support which would come into effect if UBS losses exceed 5 billion francs on this takeover. UBS CEO Colm Kelleher makes it clear that a very different Credit Suisse operation will emerge from this that will be "aligned to our conservative risk culture." Risk reduction for Credit Suisse will take place and its investment banking operations reduced, so that the combined operations in investment banking for both banks when integrated will be less than 20% of all its assets. The Swiss government waived shareholder approval because of the emergency nature of the takeover to calm financial markets when stock exchanges open on Monday.

LyrArc Article Gist
The need to rest recharge after long days, weeks and months at work, is now being recognized as a necessity if knowledge workers are going to contribute to companies. At the other end is burnout that hurts both workers and companies. This report in NYT shows how company managers and heads of companies are pushing workers to take time off, go on vacation on a mandatory basis. A big part of the problem in the pandemic is that the work is out of the office and the lines of work and office are blurred. Disconnecting the way it should be done is not managed well these days, there is need for what in Germany is called "feierabend," disconnecting as a ritual to be followed at all times while working from home or office.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sharing the waters of the Indus river system means— the ‘Eastern Rivers’, namely Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, for India, and the ‘Western Rivers’ of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for Pakistan. Indus Waters Treaty changes proposed by India include bilateral not international arbitration for Indian dam building plans, and using water storage optimally on its side for the western rivers.

The western rivers have four times the water as eastern rivers and dam building technology has evolved over 75 years. The Indus Water Treaty was written by civil engineers but its international arbitration and three levels need to be replaced with bilateral settlement so that India can go ahead with dam building for development without Pakistan simply stalling everything, which serves no purpose for modernization.

LyrArc Article Gist
Swiss bank UBS plans to make 10,000 job cuts in the next 3-5 years. Most of the job cuts will come at the investment banking operations which has 16,432 employees. Carsten Kengeter will be made chief of investment banking to concentrate on the downsizing effort. Andrea Orcel, who was brought in by new CEO Sergio Ermotti to be co-head of investment banking will run the remaining businesses of advising on mergers and equity underwriting. Trading businesses, especially fixed income, will be closed down. A third of the employees and 15 lines of business in the investment banking operation will be cut. The strategy is focus on businesses that do not require much capital to run and to build on its competitive advantages. This means focussing on its strong points in wealth management operations and the asset management division, which combined have $2 trillion under management. This move away from capital intensive business is part of an effort by Mr. Ermotti to dispel notions that UBS is not adequately capitalized. UBS suffered losses of $50 billion during the early part of the 2008 financial crisis, followed by the rogue bets by a trader in the London office leading to a loss of $2 billion in 2012. Following the most recent losses Sergio Ermotti was hired to replace Oswald Grubel in 2012. UBS now provides an example for other banks to overhaul their banking operations and downscale the importance and risks of investment banking....

LyrArc Article Gist
Daisuke Wakabayashi's exceptional account of how Steve Jobs directed the project to develop the iPhone starting in 2005 upto to the introduction in 2007. At one point Jobs gives Christie, the engineer leading the very small project team, 2 months to put it together or he would find someone else to do it. This is similiar to the way in which Sony's Morita approached his project team working on the Walkman telling them what he wanted to see and the size of the device. Jobs payed attention to all the details from how the phone names addresses appeared on the screen, dialing from the phone book, the swiping action to start the device, the music, and the colors on the screen. Only in on the project's detail were Bill Campbell, Apple director, and Jony Ive, Apple design chief. Christie was approached by Scott Forestall in late 2004 about this secret project codenamed "Purple." Christie is the engineer who joined Apple in 1996 to work on the Newton, and early touch screen device that failed because the technology was not developed enough at the time, making the device bulky and cumbersome. Christie was working on software for Mac computers in 2004. Greg Joswiak, Apple vice president for iPhone marketing, monitored other phone makers to see if they were coming up with a device that migrated the iPod's music features to the phone. Hence the absolute secrecy for this project. The project team is amazingly small. The practice of small teams can be found at Amazon and Kayak....

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's Business Federation Keidanren chairman, Sadayuki Sakakibara, says he "expects companies to make aggressive action" to increase wages. Keidanren says wage increases of at least 2.2% should be given. Prime minister Abe attended the new year's eve party hosted by Japan's three business lobbies and asked business leaders "to make a brave decision, when can you take action if not now?" Bank of Japan chief has talked to corporate leaders asking for wage increases. He also visited the new year's eve reception of the Japan Trade Union Confederation, as a way of supporting labor's demands for higher wages. BOJ's target is for 2% inflation, and Kuroda says wage movement is critical. About 17.5% of the total workforce are union workers at large companies who are affected by union-company wage negotiations in spring. Non-regular workers make up 38% of the workforce, and the wages for this group also need to be raised to have a serious impact on overall wages.