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Try this climate change game from Harry Stevens in the Washington Post with your own answers. Data sets from Japan Meteorological Agency and National Snow and Data Ice Center helped build this game. Why is the Greenland ice melting that can cause sea levels to rise 24 feet along shorelines as the Greenland ice sheet melts. It is explained by the idea of Arctic amplification. Arctic sea water is whiter than the ocean. It reflects much of the sun's light and heat back into the earth's atmposphere increasing global warming. Increasing temperatures on oceans creating the kind of effect that created the Acapulco Storm and the Libyan coastal storm very rapidly before storm preparation can happen. And making more of the Greenland Ice Sheet to melt in this process of Arctic Amplification. Note that the Greenland Ice Sheet is based on land so that it contributes to sea level rise.

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The small freshwater fish the 'delta smelt' is one of the reasons why water from Northern California cannot be brought into southern California to fight the wildfires, says DJT during a meeting in California on the wildfires relief efforts.

On his first day in the Oval Office, of the 26 executive orders signed by DJT we see an order on the delta smelt fish endangered species environmental laws- "Putting People Before Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California." The water in the San Joaquin Valley agricultural region of California comes from the rivers in the San Joaquin and Sacramento areas that flows into the sea. The effort to protect this fish means less water to agricultural farms in this part of northern California that helps feed the Nation, allowing this water to flow into the sea instead of to the other needs in the state.

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Excellent article on GM and how it lost of market share in the coastal regions of the eastern, western and southern United States. Uses Miami as an example, and traces the large demographic changes there that GM failed to keep up with in its marketing. Describes the failures of corporate strategy in centralization of marketing and advertising, and the effects of the silos in decisionmaking at GM offices in the Detroit Rennaissance Center. Hawkins describes the four Renn Center towers as resembling massive steel grain silos. Just getting to an office in another tower requires taking an elevator to the ground floor , making it along a long walkway to another tower elevator. GM once ran a snow ad in Florida, and market share in South Florida is only 13.8%. The first ads to Hispanics were in 1995 and used the Alamo as a backdrop even though Mexicans make up only a small part of the Hispanic population there. The situation is repeated in other coastal cities of the U.S. - centralization of advertising and marketing, a sense at Detroit head offices that they knew what to do and did not have to ask people in the regional offices, a failure to delegate decisionmaking to regional offices and to people more attuned to the customer preferences for that demographic. A former Avon employee who marketed Avon products to Hispanics in South Florida is the new GM marketing executive in Florida. A regional sales manager for GM's southeast region says the organization is becoming flatter and for the first time he can talk directly with head offices in Detroit. ...

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How Gazprom and Shell are changing their partnership to develop Sakhalin II: 1. The vanguard in Russian oil projects is Sakhalin II. In 2005 Shell announced the price tag would double to $20 billion. With forbidding terrain and climate and spread over a vast region in Russia's Far East, this is a really big challenge. Who owns what part of this project- Shell has 55% of the partnership in Sakhalin Energy Investment Company, a stake it picked up from Marathon which exited in 2000. Mitsui and Mitsubishi are other partners. Note the arrangement in the original contract which was signed in 1994. Under the 1994 production sharing contract with Shell Russia does not make much money till Sakhalin Energy recovers its costs. Upto that time Sakhalin Energy would pay 6% royalty on revenues. Following this Sakhalin Energy would get 90% of the profits until the project earned a 17.5% return. Taxes are 32%. Because of this arrangement the cost overruns at Sakhalin present a serious problem for the Russian government, as the returns for Russia depend on Sakhalin Energy first recovering the costs. In 2005 Shell agreed to swap 25% of its controlling stake in Sakhalin Energy with Gazprom for 50% of a field in western Siberia. 2. Shell is adapting its strategy in the changing oil picture. Comments by Malcolm Brinded, Shell's executive director for Exploration and Production indicate strategy in the changing global oil picture. Shell sees the importance of engaging with a Russian partner for the long run to make long-term gains with a first-mover advantage. For Shell the real returns would come from other players using Shell's expensive LNG plants and terminals. ...

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On one hand Chinese environmental officials are aware of the pollution problems in Beijing and Shanghai and other cities. Levels of nitrogen dioxide in Beijing exceed the WHO clean air guidelines by 78%. On the other hand the newly emerging middle class is seeking car ownership, and the local government officials need growth in the car industry to show good GNP and GDP growth numbers on which their performance is judged. Beijing and Shanghai and Anhui province local governments are part owners of some auto companies. About 416,000 people are employed in the Shanghai area auto industry alone and the auto industry in Shanghai pays about 900 millon dollars in taxes, according to government figures. At seven cars per 1000 population car sales are just beginning to take off. And with China's population its clearly not going to be possible to have the same level of ownership as in the US. The same is true for India. This would increase by many times the current demand for crude oil and increase emissions to the point of creating a disaster. And even today because of lax enforcement, and older models on the road, about 40% of vehicles in Beijing have no pollution controls and the other 60% have varying degrees of pollution controls. Experts say changes to the subsidized oil price policy, refineries that produce cleaner gasoline, policies to build more mass transit which has lagged behind in China as car sales took off (and probably more GNP impact from car plants than mass transit which act as inducement for local officials), and stricter fuel efficiency and auto emissions standards are needed....

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Mr Obama meets Mr Putin at his residence for breakfast which lasted 2 hours. Mr Obama said that he recognized "the extraordinary work that you've done on behalf of the RUssian people." And Mr Putin said, "with you we link all our hopes for the furtherance of relations between our two countries." Pavel Palazhchenko an interpreter for Mikhail Gorbachev, who met with Obama, put it this way about Medvedev and Obama- "they represent a different generation, many of the dogs in the old fights are really not their dogs. And they will be willing to take afresh look at some issues." As the head of one of the investment funds put it to a CNBC reporter about U.S. -Russian relations, the left does not like Russia, and the right does not like Russia. When asked about corruption in Russia, this businessmen said that he had worked in India, and sure he knew about corruption , "I'm from New Jersey." So with all the hopes and good intentions, and new leaders, Obama can get stuck on issues like Georgia, and political freedom, still agree on reduction of nuclear weapons stockpiles. He attended aconference on civil society and while stressing importance of freedom of expresssion and assembly, the rule of law, he brought ameasure of humility. He said" Icome before you with humility. I think in the past there has ben atendency for the United States to lecture rather than to listen. And we obviously still have much work to do with our own democracy in the United States. But nevertheless share common values and interest in building a strong democratic culture in Russia as well as the United States." ...

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Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, shows clear thinking and agrasp of the situation in Iran, in this lucid and well written article in the Op-Ed pages of the New York Times. He says the four sources of legitimacy for the Iranian government, competence in managing the country's affairs, the official religious authority, committment to Iran's independence, and a stable base of social support, have all been irretrievably undone. He points out that the situation has been changing for some time even before the voterigging. Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most prominent clergyman in Iraq, opposed the principle of velayat-e-faqih (rule of the clergy), and Ayatollah Ali Montazeri (Khomeini's would be successor) had argued that the doctrine of clergy's powers was a form of false god-making or proof of shirk. The economic rule of the bazaars and the large landholders also had moved away and no longer supported the government. Basically the rule now has come down to rule by a " military-financial mafia," says Bani-Sadr, who was the first President of Iran, after the 1979 revolution. He points out that the Revolutionary Guard now occupies the entire government -as the Revolutionary Guard is also part of economic enterprises its really the only group occupying the government- with the clergy conveniently endorsing this group. Bani-Sadr says the protest movement still needs time to spread throughout the country. At the same time he says this time the government's own cardres oppose Mr Ahamadinejad, and a deepening economic crisis is increasing discontent, indicating that the Iranian people may see this thing through over time....

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Failure of U.S. regulatory agencies to implement an important provision of the Dodd-Frank legislation- instructing regulators to find all references to ratings agencies in their rules, and then replace them with better standards for judging credit risk. Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, is one of the agencies trying to gut this reform, says this Wall Steet Journal editorial. The S.E.C. voted unanimously in March and April to propose rules eliminating credit agencies in their regulations on money funds and stock brokerages. As the comment periods have ended, the Journal calls for the rules to be immediately made final. Officials from FDIC and OCC are dragging their feet on this. One problem they face is their assumption that the Dodd-Frank law requires them to come up with the perfect rule for measuring credit risk. This is not what the change is intended to do. It is enough says the Journal to return the responsibility for the right metrics and the hard work of analyzing a security back to where it belongs- to people who manage these assets and institutional managers. Even if they made some mistakes it would be far less than the systemic risk posed by having all major institutions making the same mistake at the same time and the entire system following flawed ratings by the big three credit ratings agencies. This happened in the 2008 mortgage securities financial crisis. S&P has stated that it does not support the old system. And new alternatives are appearing for ratings- CreditSights, Rapid Ratings, Kroll Bond Ratings which got S.E.C.' support, and other alternatives still to come....

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Weymouth interviews Colombian President, Juan Manuel Santos. Santos was finance minister, foreign trade minister, and defense minister under former president Alvaro Uribe. The U.S. is negotiating a free trade agreement with Colombia. Santos has improved relations with neighboring Venezuela, which under Uribe were strained upto the breaking point. He is also improving relations with Ecuador, and working to strengthen the Andean Development Council. Santos says Colombia has a smaller drug problem after defeating the major cartels, though mini-cartels still operate in the country. On fiscal responsibility Colombia has introduced a rule in the constitution to limit deficits to 1% of GDP. Santos expects 5% growth in 2011. He hopes to protect Colombia's growth in a global financial crisis by strengthening regional reserve funds, multilateral cooperation of Andean countries, and central bank monetary policies. Santos plans to abolish the DAS intelligence agency in 3-4 months. He plans to create a new intelligence agency and transfer functions such as immigration that were under DAS to other agencies. He has also launched investigations and action against corruption in the government and against public officials working with local mafias. To do this he is working with the attorney general, prosecutor general, the controller general, and police. This has led to criticism from Uribe who sees the changes in policy pointing to deficiencies in the Uribe administration. Colombia is a country with a population of 46 million and plays a significant role in the northern part of Latin America. Santos assumed office in 2010 and was the choice of Alvaro Uribe. His policies have won him a 71% approval rating....

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Studies by Mexico's Interior Ministry show that 62% of the $23 billion in remittances to Mexico by Mexicans living in the U.S. go to the lower middle class. As migration to the U.S. diminishes to zero Mexicans who are illegal aliens in the U.S. are returning to Mexico as small entrepreneurs using earnigs made in the U.S.. This offers them a chance for upward mobility and a return to families that they never had in the U.S., and is aiding the growth of a Mexican middle class. About 12 million Mexicans, or 15% of Mexico's labor force lives legally or illegally in the U.S., according to the Pew Hispanic Center. Experts say that in the first 3-5 years remittances go to help their families, after 7 years the money goes into savings and investment fueling growth of small towns such as Santa Maria in Mexico. About half of Mexico's 112 million people have family living in the U.S., which is having an influence on atttitudes and ways of thinking of the lower middle class that emigrated to the U.S.and is now returning to the country. Other factors are reinforcing the trends such as the lower price of consumer goods with the entry of retailers such as Wal-Mart and Costco into Mexico. Nestle, P&G, and Unilever, all sell at low price points in Mexico. The government's effort to setup a basic safety net subsidizing schooling, health care and food has also helped in this direction. Rapid change in demographics in all of Latin America, including Mexico with a shift to smaller families is creating new opportunities to invest in children for better educational opportunities and working lives....

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German chancellor, Angela Merkel, appeals to members of the Christian Democratic Party to support the European project at a party convention in Leipzig on November 14, 2011. "We live in times of epic change. Our political compass has not changed. But the context is constantly changing," said Merkel. The 2 day convention used the motto: "For Europe. For Germany." Her message was that it will take years of hard work to fix the crisis and yet this has created an opportunity to put the European project on a sounder footing. Finance Minister Schauble put it succintly as he supported Merkel's appeal: "We now need to build the political union in Europe we never managed to build in the 90's." This comes as changes are taking place in Europe with new unity governments being formed in Greece by Mario Monti, a former EU commissioner, and in Greece by Papdemos, another EU official. And it comes as a head of Italy's central bank, Mario Draghi, who had pushed for stricter controls on spending by the Italian government, is now the head of the European Central Bank. Merkel also hit on the theme of a stricter financial union, and the need for courage to change the treaty underlying the European monetary union to allow strong, automatic sanctions for violations of the treaty. She also emphasized that the government had ruled out issuance of eurobonds that makes the EU as a whole responsible for the debt of individual countries. On that point she said: "Everywhere we look we find behaviour that cannot go on for long. Everywhere people are living as if there is no tomorrow."...

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This WSJ editorial makes an excellent argument of how the wrong conclusions can be drawn from Hamas, as an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood gaining participation and winning of the elections in Gaza. It calls this a mistake in 2006, which does not affect the liberal democratic openings of the Bush administration in the Arab world. Hamas had an armed militia and rejected the 1993 Oslo records, so the necessary committments which are required for democratic processes to work were not put in place, primarily on the advice of Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice who made an exception in this case. The Journal says the mistake was not about free elections, but elections before the proper groundwork had been prepared, which requires that anti-democratic parties cannot be part of a democratic system and elections- a lesson that goes back to 1933. If the Brotherhood in Egypt wants to participate in elections says the Journal, it has to promise to play by democratic rules , and work to establish religious and social pluralism, and honor treaty commitments. And the constitutional system has to setup a system of strong checks and balances that prevent an elected party from subverting the democratic process for future generations whatever its support at any particular time. This is significant as it puts things in the proper context and also clearly establishes a well established point- democracy can only work for democrats. And at the same time preserves what is best about America's heritage and core values in America's stance with the rest of the world, and in this case with the Arab world....

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In a significant development Apple plans to introduce a new iPhone in 2011 at half the price. The new iPhone will be lighter and about half the size of the current model, the iPhone 4. The reduced price would make it possible for Verizon and other carriers to subsidize most of the retail price. Apple at the current time sells iPhones to Verizon and other carriers for an averge of $625 each. A subsidized iPhone can then sold near the price point of $200 with a two year contract. Also in the works is a big revamp of the MobileMe online storage service. The service allows users to access data from a central location, and is sold for an annual subscription fee of $99. This feature gets rid of the need for a lot of memory residing on the phone itself. MobileMe would also be used for online music, social networking and other purposes. These two projects, the mass market iPhone and the new MobileMe are the two top priorities for Steve Jobs, who is still overseeing the efforts from home. Jobs went on medical leave recently. The global market share of the iPhone is only 3.4%, according to IDC. Yet it generated 39% of Apple's $26.7 billion in revenues for the last quarter of 2010. Apple's strategy is to accelerate competition in the smartphone segment. IDC says global sales of smartphones will rise 39% in 2011 to 421 millon units. Apple has sold 84.2 million iPhones since the introduction in 2007. By entering the massmarket with a better iPhone and free features on MobileMe Apple hopes to make significant inroads in 2011-2012....

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The President of the American Chamber of Commerce, Harley Seyedin, says that the days when migrant workers did not know their rights, labor laws were not enforced, and factory owners could keep wages low, are gone. With 787 million mobile phone users and 384 million Internet users- which includes migrant workers who can now get the news about the latest developments, send messages, video, and access the internet. For its part the government made serious effort to create awareness about new labor laws of 2008 through the state run media outlets. And workers have greater awareness and understanding of their rights for safe working conditions and double overtime pay, as well as other rights guaranteed in China's new labor laws. And something else is happening that connects the universities with workers. The expansion of the number of students at Chinese universities has brought more people from rural areas into the universities. This has created sympathy and support for migrant workers at the universities. Nine sociologists at Peking and Tsinghua universities signed an open letter calling national and local governments to implement actions that let migrant workers integrate into the city environment and share in the country's progress that they are creating. The government's security system has prevented the creation of a worker's movement in the past. But this time the government may be thinking of the need to develop China's domestic market, as the reliability of markets in the USA and European countries is uncertain as economic conditions change. For this to happen China's workers need higher wages to buy the goods China produces. ...

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Glenn Hubbard, Professor at Columbia University and Bush adviser who helped design the Bush tax cuts, has an uneasy sense about the tax cuts today. He says the tax cuts have been undermined by years of deficit spending. The Bush tax cuts expire Dec 31st 2010 in the USA if Congress does not act. Macroeconomic Advisors estimates that letting the tax cuts expire will take 0.9% off the growth rate. Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman prefers to let the tax cuts expire and provide more help to state and local governments to preserve jobs that are being lost due to budget shortfalls. But becuase of the political climate he prefers to let the tax cuts go on for a limited period. The Obama administration may decide to continue with the tax cuts rather than fight the serious battles for deficit reduction, after spending much of its political capital on health care reform. Hubbard also thinks in the current situation its best to keep the tax cuts even with the concern for the deficits. He says the spending during the Bush administration, especially the Medicare prescription drug benefit, which is estimated to cost $400 billion from 2004-2013, was a major problem. The incentives to business and investors for productive effort in the Bush tax cuts is uncertain, if it becomes clear that the price for these cuts is higher taxes later on to cover growing deficit spending. Hubbard does not see any serious action on the deficit till the next Presidential term and sees it better to keep the tax cuts till then, when some serious discussion can take place....

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Greek yogurt sales have doubled every year since 2006. It is praised by nutritionists for its flavor and protein content. The market leader is Chobani, founded by Hamdi Ulukaya, of Turkish origin, who has dairy plants in Johnston, New York. Chobani's sales were $196 million, as of Oct 3, 2010, having nearly tripled from the prior year. The irony is hat Chobani bought Kraft's yogurt plant to set up this business. Kraft had decided to exit the yogurt business in 2005. Now with sales climbing rapidly, Kraft is back in the business. Kraft has introduced its new Athenos brand Greek yogurt at Wal-Mart stores. General Mills introduced Greek Yoplait yogurt in March 2010. A change in American eating habits is driving this trend, as more people are substituting yogurt for breakfast instead of cereal. Overall yogurt sales are up 7.8% over the past year, according to UBS analyst Palmer. The CEO of Yoplait, General Mills, says there is room for continued growth, as Americans eat yogurt less per person than people in the U.K., Australia or Canada. The No 2 yogurt maker is brand is Fage, which started in a small dairy shop in Athens. Fage began exporting to the US in the 1990's, and set up a dairy plant in New York state. To reach the main demographic for yogurt- health conscious women- this brand advertised in Women's magazines Vogue and Elle, and ran banner ads on the New York Times website, as well as ads on food and wine sites. Fage's sales were up 50% by Oct 3, 2010, and reached $123 million in the US market....

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Italy's oil company Eni's new CEO Mr. Descalzi, is a 33 year veteran, who headed the oil exploration division under former CEO Paolo Scaroni. He faces the challenge of reducing its 5.1 billion euro debt at the end of June 2014, with the possible partial sale of its 43% stake in oil services company Saipem. Eni's stake has a market value of 3.5 billion euros. Other decisions he faces are to reduce geopolitical risk in Africa by selling stakes in its oil projects in Africa. Under Scaroni Eni sold a 20% stake in its Mozambique field to China National Petroleum Corporation for $4.2 billion. Delays at its Kazakhstan project ,chronic problems in Nigeria, the fighting between militias in Libya have hurt earnings and cash flow. Reducing risks in Africa is a priority because Eni aggressively pursued opportunities for exploration in places like the Congo and Mozambique, so that a larger part of its oil comes from unstable regions than other large oil companies. Profitability from these fields is not what it used to be because of oil theft in Nigeria and the fighting between militias and the government in Libya, with North Africa coming in at $18 per barrel and sub-Saharan Africa at below $15 per barrel, compared to $30 per barrel from Kazakhstan for the last 3 years, according to Kepler Cheuvreux. Another problem the new CEO faces is the 800 million euro loss at the refining operations in the last 2 years. The government has a 30% stake in Eni, making refinery closings a sensitive issue. Refinery product demand is down with the economic crisis in Italy....

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Paul Singer, head of hedge fund firm Elliott Management and its unit NML Capital, has relentlessly pursued a case in U.S. courts involving collecting full payment on bonds from the Argentine government after its default on the bonds in 2001. Singer bought bonds with face value of about $170 million according to legal filings, but paid a price well below the original value. Elliott and other investors are now seeking $1.5 billion, including unpaid interest. Judge Griesa's ruling in a federal court in Manhattan blocks Argentina from paying bondholders who accepted an agreement for about 25 cents on the dollar from being paid $530 million in interest in July 2014. Argentina has to consider other risks in settling the dispute as more than the $1.5 billion as a one off payment is involved, because as Stevenson points out in another article (see link), the payment could run from $15- $27 billion depending on whether it then has to pay all holdout bondholders or all exchange and holdout bondholders at a higher rate. The result is an intractable dispute beyond the statement of honoring creditor rights, seen by a debtor country facing difficult finances in a different light. Serving as a reminder for Greece, Argentina, and other countries with chronic borrowing and debt history about the need for care and constant vigilance on state finances. In May 2012 Greece paid over $436 million in a one off payment to holdout bondholder financial firm Dart Management in a similiar bind, even as pensions were being cut and Greeks protested daily on Athens streets with over 20% unemployment (see link)....

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Bill Spindle of the WSJ describes the Iranian Quds military organization led by Suleimani that operates alongside the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon as Iran intervenes in regional conflicts across borders. Using the militia and Quds Iran is supporting the Assad regime in Syria, and fighting Islamic State in Iraq. Quds has also supported Shiites in Yemen. The problem with the interventions may be that they may have created new problems from which Iran has gained little. The intervention on the side of the Assad regime created an opening for Sunnis supporting Islami State insurgency in both Syria and Iraq, creating another problem for Iran, and weakening the Shiite led government in Baghdad with the loss of Mosul Iraq's second largest city. The cost is in tens of billions of dollars for the intervention at a time when the Iranian economy is suffering from tighter sanctions because of an expanding nuclear development effort. Suleimani is head of the Quds military force, and Alaeddin Bouroujerdi is head of the foreign policy and national security committee in Iran's parliament, who says Iran is now a powerful force in the region. But at a heavy price and complicating the effort of Sunnis and Shiites to live side by side for centuries in the Middle East. There are no serious benefits for the Iranian people suffering from severe shortages at home, a devaluing currency, cost to subsidize other countries, getting into and exacerbating military conflicts. Prime minister Rouhani says- "Until when should our economy subsidize our policies? Lets have our foreign policy subsidize our economy, and see what happens." ...

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Walk in clinics at drug stores like CVS and stores like Walmart now have the cooperation of hospitals. Hospitals are now affiliated with 25 Walmart clinics. THe Cleveland Clinic has lent its name and backup services to a number of CVS clinics in northeastern Ohio. And the Mayo Clinic is operaing ne Express care clinic at asupermarke in Rochester, Minnesota, and asecond one at ashopping mall. This helps clear emergency rooms of people seeking bsic medical care as for astrep throat or flu. About one thousand clincs are operating in the US at drugstores, supermarkets and big stores since the idea took root 4 years ago. Wal-Mart has partnered with hopitals like the Christus Medical Group in Texas, Aurora Health System in Wisconsin and COxHealth in Missouri to setup clinics. Mayo did so after employees and patients said they wanted more convenient treatment for minor medical problems, so there may be a need here that as not been met. The lower costs at these centers compared to primary care doctors offices or emergency rooms make it possible for them to price lower and meet the needs of the 45 million or so uninsured people in the US, numbers growing as jobless rate increases. They are typically staffed by nurse practitioers or physicians asistants. Dr Herman at Mayo Clinic, who supervises its retail store clinics, says rather than fight this trend primary care doctors should learn from it, and work with hospitals around the country to offer more convenient locations and consumer friendly office hours, including periods of walk-in care with no appointment....

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GM and Chrysler will face a tough market in the years ahead. The last year as seen GM's image with the American customer erode even further. Reputation Institute surveyed 70,000 people worldwide, and found only Mitsubishi and AvtoVAZ have a worse image. This inspite of improvements in quality at GM, which shows that management errors and its image matters a lot in buyer behaviour. Worse still GM and Chrysler, both are not favored by the younger generation of customers. The new demographics show that 73 million 21-33 year olds will be customers in the next few years, and they have shown little interest in Detroit brands. These people says one expert on atitudes towards automotive brands at AutoStrategem, can't see heir friends in these brands, and so can't see themselves in them. Perception matters a lot to these young people who are better educated. Studies have shown that college graduates and better educated Americans favor overseas brands by a wide margin. Chrysler is pervceived as having poor quality according to JD Powers and Consumer Reports. With $21 billion in debt Chrysler is more burdened with costs, needed improvements are less likely without investment. Chrysler may shrink to 6% of the market says BW, and GM will probably go down from 19% in 2008 to 14% in the next 3-4 years, as competing with Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, VW and new competitors from China and India makes for a very tough environment. Worse still there is about 90 million car production capacity worldwide, and the worldwide market has shrunk to 55 million cars and is still shrinking. ...

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Another significant development in this crisis, is how small businesses got addicted to credit card debt as a way to operate for ongoing expenses of the small business, from a small nursery, to abed and breakfast or a solo law practice. There are an estimated 27.2 million small businesses who are supposed to be one of the growth engines of the economy. Credit card debt when banks are tightening up credit and businesses are unable to meet expenses, is extremely costly because of the underlying usurious nature of the industry in the US and lax regulation. It will only push more businesses, that have acquired the bad habit of credit cards to finance operations, into bankruptcy. There were 5 million business credit cards in 2000. By 2009 after Visa Inc, American Express Co, and MasterCard Inc. and Discover Financial Services Inc. pushed these cards aggressively, using a new credit scoring system that looked less at the business and more at personal credit scores, the number jumped six fold to what Nilsen Reports estimates as 29 million business credit cards. The spending on these cards jumped for this period four fold, from $70 billion to $296 billion. As the average debt on each credit card jumped so did the likelihood of some of these card holders difficulties. Missed payments could lead to interest rates for some card holders jumping to 30+% from initial rates of 7-8%, all in the last 12 months. This makes small businesses less likely to create the jobs they created in the past, and one more troublespot in this economy....

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How electric utilities and the oil industry are backing California's fight with the EPA to regulate auto emissions, cutting them by 30% by 2016 for new cars and trucks in the state. Its a fight endorsed by 14 states in the Northeast and Northwest. California sued the EPA, and in effect the Bush Administration which controls the EPA, in federal district court and federal appeals court. THe EPA has taken two years to respond to California's request for a waiver so that it can regulate auto emissions in its state. California's auto emissions rules are part of a broad effort to reduce all emissions in the state by 25% by 2020, including by manufacturing, electric utilities and the oil industry. Utilities and the oil industry share the opinion that all sectors of the economy should be required to take on this responsibility, including the transportation sector. In the past oil companies and the auto industry have been at loggerheads about who is responsible for the worsening dependence of the USA on foreign oil and the worsening impact of the oil consumption on the environment and their advertising campaign have often shifted the blame on each other. Is this part of the continuing debate about oil as oil prices rise and consciousness about global warming rises as it has already done so in Europe. See the links to the Frankfurt Auto Show. BMW known for gas guzzling machines has done an aboutface in the face of public opinion in Germany and is advertising its image as environment friendly and investing in new technologies to curb emissions and increase fuel economy. ...

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Former senior directors in the National Security Council in the Bush administration who talk about a a complete change in policy towards Iran- changing policies pursued all the way back to President Carter and Reagan and the Ayatollah Khomeini government. New policy would be implemented through hard work on diplomatic negotiations to bring Iran and the U.S. closer by tackling many of the differences. The U.S. recognizing the Iran government and its interests in the region and Iran cooperating on the nuclear isssue to safeguard against nuclear proliferation. What this means is that the portion of oil price increases that are a result of political volatility, with Iran as one of the sources of the political volatility, will be affected as the political volatility from this source is reduced significantly. Also note recent news about Petrochina signing an agreement with Iran to develop large Iranian oil fields. This was a different aspect of the oil price increase as the lack of modernization and investment to develop oil fields in countries like Iran, Venezuela and Mexico was a problem on the supply side. In the case of Iran there was a squeeze as demand was growing inside these countries at the same time as there wasn't enough investment in the oil fields. Chinese participation means that this problem is being addressed differently from that if the western oil majors were involved, but still being addressed. Over time this should be part of contributing factors that are becoming evident for less price pressures. However it should also be noted that these changes will take some time to work their way. ...

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Kotter on how projecting a sense of urgency to others and getting people motivated and eager to get something done comes not from putting up a lot of intellectual stuff and power point slides but by talking to people on a level where one relates to them, with stories they can relate to, with humor that relaxes them, with human behaviour that makes one feel comfortable with the speaker and make it easy to relate to what he is saying. Anything new? It may be just that we have been told for so long about the merits of a lot of organized powerpoints in doing things and it may be that middle and higherups in the organization have been trained to expect them so that you better have them or you'd be considered unprepared and frowned on. But in reality it seems perfectly natural that people can relate to a speaker who can talk to you rather than have you look at a screen for a long time, its how we as humans were trained to receive information until this new wave of slides and powerpoints came along. Not that they are not useful when used in the appropriate manner or situation to convey information for instance. But in persuading people, in motivating them as well as getting them to take action in a particular direction a few organized and purposely summarized powerpoints suffice if used at all, and then the rest of the time the speaker can simply talk to the best inall of us to reach and bring out that best and turn on our inner powers for some good cause....