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The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact led by Japan and the U.S. moves to the next stage with legislation introduced by Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden in the U.S. Congress for granting trade promotion authority to the U.S. president. This would facilitate the negotiation of an agreement leading to concessions by different countries. Talks between Japan and the U.S. intensified with the U.S. president Obama saying in his 2015 State of the Union message that China wanted to write the rules for trade in Asia, and asking why the U.S. should not work to write its own rules. Defense Secretary, Aston Carter, called it more important than another aircraft carrier. Support from Europe, India and other countries for the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a rival to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, also give urgency to the TPP. The TPP countries, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Peru and Chile, make up over $400 billion of about $4 trillion in U.S. trade, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The TPP is now seen not just a free trade pact, but also as away to counter China's influence in Asia. Experts see the Obama administration as having bungled its handling of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which the U.S. did not join, and its allies in Europe, other Asian countries including India, decided to join as founding members. Democrats in Congress led by Senator Schumer, Warren, oppose the legislation granting fast track for free trade pacts citing the loss of jobs and lowering of wages for workers in manufacturing in the U.S., with only about a dozen Democrats favoring the legislation, leading to a split in the party. Projections by Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, Fan Zhai, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, show a net negative impact on depressed wage sectors such as U.S. manufacturing with additional $45 billion in U.S. imports and $35 billion in exports for heavy manufacturing from the TPP free trade pact, and additional $33 billion of U.S. imports and $10 billion exports in light manufacturing by 2025. Higher wage sectors such as U.S. Services including IT get a boost with additional $42 billion in exports and $ 8 billion imports. Agriculture shows insignificant gains with additional exports of $2 billion and imports of 0.5 billion. The auto and transport sector disproportionately favors Japan with $33 billion in additional U.S. imports and $8 billion in exports. ...

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Why polluting industries and colluding local government officials who are judged on the rate of economic growth achieved have come together and become entrenched to thepoint where its hard for the central government to implement pollution control measures. Deng's response to a sluggish socialist bureaucracy was to give power to local government officals to promote growth and to be judged on that basis. The environmental ministry and the environmental protection departments are very small and lack the resources to control these industries. And NGO's and the informed public and citizens are powerless to demand change as they are seen by the government as risking social stability by risking growth. After the East Asian crisis China anticipating a slowing down in competition with recovering Asian economies pushed harder for more economic growth. As a result production of steel set new records and the addition of power generating capacity each year surpassed the total power generation of countries like Britain and France.But this power generation does not use the modern technology available as it is costlier and takes longer to build. So a lot of short run decisions are being made in the interests of growth. An effort to introduce Green GDP backed by President Hu Jintao was dropped after it ran into a lot of resistance. Using this about 3 points of GDP were deducted from the 10% growth as environmental cost. This was based on modest environmental costs estimates and did not take into account the entire cost of pollution to health and the environment. China's own environmental experts think that Western estimates of environmental costs are if anything on the conservative side as they are based on models used in the west and conditions in China have little precedent in the scale and range of environmental degradation. Coal is burned to produce two thirds of the energy and uses older technology for power generation, it is a big polluter of the environment. And the modest energy efficiency goals set by the central government are not being met as a result China is already expected to be consuming as much energy in 2010 as it was expected by its own planners to be consuming in 2020. To informed outsiders it appears that the polutting process is systemic in its nature and only political change that allows people who are suffering the worst effects of this pollution to make their voice heard, can lead to reversing the trends that have been set in place from the Deng period of economic change that started in the 80's. ...

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Should Arthur Levinson and some of the team he has assembled at Genentech leave it will be a big loss for Roche, as it was his team that helped bring a series of new drugs to the market such as Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan to bring Genentech sales from $1 billion in 1999 to $9 billion in 2007. As drug companies buy biotechs in large numbers, with $70 billion in deals this year almost twice the toal for 2007, the question remains whether the drug companies have succeeded in retaining talent as consolidation yields cost savings but does not improve drug discovery. Drug companies are struggling with this, and a couple of models have emerged for keeping minds engaged in scientific discovery satisfied that they have the freedom to operate as they always have and work with the teams they have assembled, similiar to the work style and in the similiar culture as before. Almost like walking into the offices they use as if its like before. J&J has come up with a hub and spoke model to acquire companies and then leave them alone- preserving their management teams, unique cultures and brands. Centocor was bought in 1999 by J&J and 10 of the top executives stayed on and developed Remicade, a drug for inflammatory disease that has sales of $3.3 billion. Glaxo has developed a new structure under new CEO Andrew Witty, which breaks up the primary research labs into "discovery performance units" or DPUs, which also include new biotech startups. In April Glaxo acquired Sitris, a Cambridge, Massachusetts startup. The company had come up with a new science for tackling heart disease, diabetes and other diseases associated with aging. Harvard trained scientist and CEO, Christoph Westphal, went with Glaxo turning down other companies because the independence of the DPU appealed to him. Each DPU has a 3 year budget and this also appealed to Westphal. He could walk into the labs, says Westphal as if nothing had changed. Is Roche making a mistake in acquiring Genentech when it could have left it alone. Are the consolidation savings worth it if some of the discovery team at Genentech leaves and there is the feeling that the culture will change, and if Levinson feels that he was not consulted about Roche's move. These are questions that remain even when Roche's CEO, Severin, says he does not want to change things at Genentech because Roche's actions will speak louder than its words. ...

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Treasury Secretary Paulson meets Germany's Economics minister and the President of the European Central Bank Mr Trichet as there are indications that the situation in Europe is not looking much better. An influential survey of purchasing managers points out that manufacturing activity shrank in the 15 country euro region in June. The situation in Europe is uneven as some countries Like Spain and Ireland are seeing sharp declines in economic activity, whereas Germany is doing much better. German unemployment dropped to 7.8% the lowest it has been since 1992. Manufacturing activity contracted in June in Fance, Italy and Austria. In the midst of this Claude Trichet has to make a decision about inflation, the ECB's target inflation is 2%, and inflation in the euro region is about 4% with higher food and energy costs. Economists expect the ECB to raise rates to 4.25% this week. This will widen the difference between USA interest rates at 2% and Euro region rates at 4.25% and also affect the USA dollar....

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PM Modi visits Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad and inaugurates the $145 million Sabarmati Ashram renovation project. In June 1917 Mohandas Gandhi bought land on the banks of the Sabarmati river to build the Ashram. It was the central location for Gandhiji's struggle with the British for Hind Swaraj, independence from Britain. The ideas in Gandhi's Hind Swaraj written in 1910 during the struggle for South African workers was implemented from here including the Satyagraha struggles, negotiations with the British Raj, Dandi march to the sea in April 1930 to protest the tax on salt. It was originally on 120 acres which by 2020 were reduced to 5 acres. The new project will expand the Ashram to 57 acres into a major worldwide center for learning about Gandhi's life and ideas and the role for gaining Bharat Swaraj or freedom and its role in Bharat's future for a new generation of youth. Leaders including Sardar Vallahbhai Patel and Narendra Modi look to Gandhiji's ideas for inspiration and guidance in the everyday administration of the country. Gandhi's ideas anticipate not just the aspirations for freedom with taking responsibility for one's own actions, but also the movements for respecting nature through climate change action, uplifting of rural areas, and the improvement of the living conditions of working people and families everywhere in the world. The Ashram exhibition shows documents including letters to the Viceroy in the 1920's showing the budget for the Empire in India and asking why so much went to defense and military and so little to uplifting the lives of the people, in education, health and infrastructure. Having seen it at the Ashram one could say such a direct letter to the head of a large nation, as the Viceroy in India was then is unimaginable today. In some ways emails and electronic communication have made contact with officials and government less not more and created a seemingly insurmountable gap today. ...

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Sharp drop in oil prices in Dec. 2015.

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Hingh unemployment in important states including Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado (8%). Unemployment has improved in Ohio (7%), Virginia and Iowa (6%).

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This televised debate of Republican presidential candidates focussed on Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. Rick Perry said he would impose sanctions on Iran's central bank, something the Obama administration is reluctant to do because it might disrupt international oil markets. Romney and Gingrich said they would use military action if other measures failed. Huntsman called for a complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, saying: "This nation's future is not in Afghanistan. this nation's future is not in Iraq." Ron Paul said hw opposed military interventions in conflicts overseas. Perry and Gingrich said U.S. aid to Pakistan should be suspended because Pakistan was not a reliable partner.

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Prices for WTI crude dropped below $50 in January 2015. Higher inventories weighed on oil prices and Saudi Arabia added to the pressure by cutting the price of crude sold in the U.S.

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The FDIC acknowledges that it has not been able to get banks interested in a pilot program called the Legacy Loans Program. That program was designed to give the banks an opportunity to sell off $1 billion of troubled mortgages. Since November with the efforts of the Troubled Asset Program under Secretary Paulson to have the banks sell off these assets in an auction or some other way, the whole issue of getting the toxic or troubled assets off the books of the banks has been effectively shelved. The Obama administration's version of this was the Geithner Public Private Partnership program, but this like Paulson's TARP never really got off the ground. Instead several things have happened that have enabled banks to show higher profits and improve stock prices. The period from March 2009 to June 2009, a period of several months has seen bank stock prices recover and banks are now able to raise capital on their own from investors. The government's "stress tests" gave the banks credibility with investors and they were designed not to be so stringent as to affect confidence. The mark to market rule has also been relaxed so that banks are no longer required to show these toxic assets at prices that reflect large losses. Bank executives also are wary of the new executive compensation rules of the government. All of these things have combined to create asituation where some confidence has been restored, but at the same time experts are pointing out that the underlying problems of an estimated $1 trillion in troubled assets remains. Banks are even less likely to want to part with these assets at lower prices now that some semblence of confidence is returning, as they would then have to show large losses. What this implies is that if the economy suffered a setback, these problems would return and be just as intractable as ever....

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Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the experience of states such as Illinois and California with lower economic growth than Florida and Texas during the pandemic because of increased restrictions and lockdowns or partial lockdowns. The Biden administration's approach in winter 2021 is to vaccinate as many people as possible, including use of vaccine mandates so that there is less need for the lockdowns that restrict economic activity and growth. In states such as Michigan which are evenly divided between the two parties Republican and Democrat, there is a sense of fatigue with lockdowns. Even with the recent surge in cases putting Michigan in November 2021 at the top of states with the highest number of cases, the state government and local governments sought help from the Biden administration with health teams dispatched from Washington, yet avoided restrictions to economic activity. Greg Ip says of the 10 states with worst job performance 8 had Democratic governors and voted for Biden. The new approach of president Biden is to keep economic activity and push vaccination and booster shots as quickly as can be done. Investments in infrastructure and other action is planned for rapid infusion of needed roads, bridges, with attention to local needs, and broadband to help generate economic growth.  ...

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Sweden's king Gustaf says the coronavirus policy of voluntary action has failed. Sweden now has 350,000 cases and deaths at 7800. This is more than all other Nordic countries combined and one of the highest rates per 100,000 of the population. Most are elderly who never had time to say goodbye. The makes Sweden a target of worldwide criticism for neglecting older people who never got a chance to say goodbye and died in chaotic conditions. It puts into spotlight the values of Swedish society of self centredness. Sweden, Netherlands and some Northern European countries also opposed the large stimulus planned by Merkel and Macron for the EU. showing lack of sensitivity for the plight of poorer countries in Europe such as Greece Portugal, Spain and Eastern Europe that were already hit by the eurozone financial crisis. The king said 2020 "was a terrible year" for Sweden. Now that the second wave has hit Germany hard, Sweden has acted to close schools, limit gatherings for Christmas and is following the restrictions practiced in the rest of Europe. To get some sense of how hard the second wave is hitting countries Germany recorded  952 deaths a day December 16, close to one third of that in the U.S. on Dec 15. ...

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Ms Constantini is one of the executives who followed Mr. Macri as he became president of Argentina. She is a former CEO of GM Argentina. She was appointed CEO of Argentina's national airline Aerolineas Argentinas. The state owned airline has lost about $5 billion, and loses about $1 billion a year. There is no culture of budgets or revenue at the airline, say people familiar with the airline. Ms. Constantini has set the goal of cutting losses to $260 million in 2016. The goal is to increase revenues and improve earnings to the point where the airline is profitable in 4 years. The new CEO is taking an approach that she sees has a better approach of succeeding. She is getting employees involved in the company's decisions and progress. She carefully tells labor leaders of her plans and seeks feedback. Because it was run more like a government ministry than a performance based airline, says Constantini, the transformation requires a patient and employee involved approach. In 2008 the government of Mrs. Kirchner nationalized the airline previously owned by Spain's Marsans Group. Because Argentines see the airline with national pride, its like the country's soccer team. Sales are up 10% in 2016 and the airline flew one million passengers in July, up 13% from the prior year.  ...

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A black semi trailer used for steel pipes in Poland is stolen and used for a terrorist attack in the Kurfstendamm area of Berlin opposite the war damaged Kaiser Wilhelm church. The trailer was used to ram into a Christmas market in that area injuring 50 people. The attack resembled the one in Nice, France.

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This article by Gerald Seib in the WSJ says not enough was done to attract white working class voters- critical for Trump in industrial swing states- at the Democratic National Convention. He says only on the last night of the convention did a factory worker, a home care provider and a laid off restaurant worker, appear on the stage. These are the voters who have drifted away from the Democratic Party. The convention draws ironically on Republican themes, defense foreign policy as in the speeches by Leon Panetta and retired General Allen, and in efforts to portray Hillary as more human with frailties but a 40 year public service record that includes exceptional work for children. Actually the appeal to traditional Democratic white working class voters was there always in the background with most of the speakers, as it colored most speakers comments including Biden and Kane, who have the colloquial language and style to appeal to this group. The appeal to traditionally white working class voters is in the party platform with the $15 minimum wage for service industry workers, and in the promise to provide college free tution for people making less than $125,000. The Democrats simply painted this with a different brush. Contrasting the callous attitude to the poor and struggling of billionaires like Trump with those who have fought for pushing people up the ladder since FDR- with the lapses in recent years from the tech boom which left some workers short now being addressed. This was expressed by Hillary Clinton saying to Bernie Sanders voters- "your cause is our cause." For Democrats it was more effective to tackle the traditionally Democratic working class voters first, before shifting to working class voters who are border line Republican because of social issues or those who are so disaffected so as to be beyond reach. ...

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Brazil's economy is forecast to contract by 2% in 2015, the currency has lost about one third its value and the stock market is down 22% in the last year. This follows the decline in demand for Brazil's commodities exports as China growth slows down. Experts say Brazil is now seeing another boom bust cycle similiar to boom-bust cycles in the past, such as the 1966-73 boom followed by years of hyperinflation and stagnation. Brazil's exports to China declined 17% in the first 7 months of 2015. The crisis is in many ways similiar to crises in other emerging markets dependent on commodities exports. The resources boom leads to overvaluation of the currency, and decline in development of manufacturing away from dependence on commodities exports. Other errors rise from complacency and politics prevalent in such periods. These errors include mismanagement of resources with poor resource allocation decisions such as spending on soccer stadiums in cities in the northeast while basic bus services remained underfinanced in large urban areas, large overspending by the government using state owned bank BNDES to offer rates at below market rates, a credit fueled boom and credit card binge for households, and a reversal of capital flows from the U.S. and Europe with the sharp decline in investment climate. There is a severe loss of confidence in the government of Dilma Rousseff with her approval rating as low as 8%. Corruption scandals at Petrobras show close links between the Workers Party of Rousseff and executives, with about $2 billion in misused funds. Brazil, like other emerging markets such as Russia and India, have taken some lessons from the 1997 financial crisis by setting aside large foreign exchange reserves for a crisis. Brazil's reserves of $397 billion help it cushion the effects with funding of the safety net and support to industries to avoid large layoffs. Other problems not tackled as in Mexico, India, and other emerging markets, are the weak educational system, and poor infrastructure, that create bottlenecks for growth. Brazil could face a lost decade after the debt overhang, decline in foreign investment and commodity export generated revenues. ...

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Speaking to Cadena Sur, a Spanish radio network, EU Commission Vice President, Joaquin Alumnia said the EC will have plans to monitor the restructuring of each bank that gets EU funds. He said: "Whoever gives money never gives it for free. There will be people coming to Spain to make sure the money will be properly used."