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This report in the WSJ from Singapore says Chinese authorites are asking local governments to prepare for the potential downfall of housing developer Evergrande which was built on ever growing debt. This was described as getting ready for a possible storm in the event there is a disorderly collapse. Beijing is unwilling to bail out the developer. For years the Chinese government has discouraged speculative investment in housing saying "housing is for living not for speculation." This had little effect on housing developers and housing prices in China making housing smaller and smaller in size and beyond the reach of average households.

To get some idea of the magnitude of Evergrande's expansion it has 800 projects in progress spread over 200 cities in China. It is unable to complete many of these projects, now that it is unable to pay contractors and suppliers.

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Tom Steyer, founder of NextGen America points out the dangers of the Republican tax plan. He calls it a sham, in the WSJ. As evidence he cites a meeting of the WSJ CEO Council, where few hands went up when asked it they would increase investment if the tax bill passed. By saddling future generations with more debt the bill would hurt investment in infrastructure, health and education that are badly needed. This is not the time for another Reaganomics plan, says Steyer, as the middle class and working class have shrivelled under both presidents Bush and Obama, with the export of jobs overseas and the deep recession years. As proof that it does little for the middle and working class, he cites the Tax Policy Center's review of the bill showing 62% of the Senate's version of the tax bill benefits go to the top 1% of the earners. And that nearly half of American families will see their taxes rise under the bill eventually. This means nothing less than taking money from the middle and working class to fund the cuts, and gutting investments in health, education and infrastructure.  ...

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In a program of gradual change the new leadership under premier Li Keqiang steers China's economy in the new direction set by the DRC Report: China 2030 and the Third Plenum in Nov. 2013. New priorities listed under major Tasks in the annual work report by Li Keqiang place setting up deposit insurance at the top of the list. Policy changes include allowing cities to issue bonds directly to increase transparency in construction spending and control burgeoning debt.

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China's urbanization has proceeded to the point where the urban population now exceeds 50%. Urbanization as helped in the process of industrialization as young people went from rural areas to cities to work on the production lines. But further urbanization is running into problems as cities get congested and providing benefits such as affordable housing and schooling to migrant workers means raising taxes. The hokou system which classifies residents as urban or rural persists and efforts to reform it have run into difficulties in places like Chengdu and Chongqing. These efforts were abandoned earlier in Guangzhou and Zhengzhou because of the cost. The hukou system acts as a discriminatory system as migrants from the countryside are not allowed welfare benefits in the cities. They have only temporary status in the cities. And people from farming communities who migrate to the cities also have an interest in keeping land and homes they can go back to in the countryside. As they get into their 40's and 50's and no longer want to work on the production lines they can go back to the countryside. The government also sees the advantage of this as this acts as a safety valve for stability- during the 2008 global financial crisis about 20 million migrants went back to the countryside. The actual number of urban hukou holders in China is about 35% according to researchers at Peking University. Efforts to integrate rural hukou can be costly- the effort in Chongqing is estimated by local officials to cost $30 billion or 200 billon yuan to convert 3 million people. It has given 1.7 million people urban hukou in the past year with the conditions that these migrant workers must have worked in urban areas for at least 3 years. Migrants get to hold onto land entitlements in the countryside. But the urban hukou status would be limited to Chonqqing only. Nationwide the prospects for migrants obtaining the kind of urban hukou staus that gives them benefits of affordable housing and schooling are not good. The World Bank's Kuij's says local governments do not have the incentives or the resources to carry out the programs that are being tried in Chongqing. As the process of urbanization becomes more difficult, the rate of growth in China will be affected....

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CLT Classical Learning Test has a bright future. Its message is summed up in CLT Test 8 on the website- where Gustav Mahler is cited with the text- "Tradition is not about the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire." 183,000 high school seniors have taken the CLT Classic Learning Test in the US in 2025 compared to 2 million for SAT and 1.4 million for ACT, yet the new test is considered to be more rigorous and includes the western intellectual tradition in ways that the ACT and SAT do not. A CLT Test 3 we looked at on the CLT site included for reading a poem by Amy Lovell 1916, Mark Twain writings, passages on Greek Zeno and Renaissance painter Raphael, EB White and others. CLT Test 4 has poetry of Robert Louis Stevenson 1885, and remarkably it has a passage on the Pack Horse Book Project of FDR's New Deal Initiative in 1935 on women librarians on horseback or with mules going into remote mountainous areas of the US including Kentucky, to teach rural people to read and write. This alone suggests it should appeal to Republican and Democratic states alike. It could include Charles Dickens and Shakespeare or Robert Frost's poetry. In that sense it is far more rigorous than short bland passages in SAT or ACT of little significance or educational value. It is designed to give students an exposure in classrooms to the western intellectual tradition that the elites in America have themselves grown up learning but who now have a haughty attitude to their own intellectual traditions. In CLT Test 6 we found a poem on Nature by Gerard Manley Hopkins 1877 and Dickens famous iconic passage that begins the Tale of Two Cities written about the French Revolutionary period which is clearly not what we find in SAT or ACT, and far better in conveying a feel of what America is about and where it came from. The founder of CLT Mr. Tate believes it will be the test most taken by high school seniors by 2040. Classic Learning Test now competes with SAT and ACT in North Carolina, Indiana and other American states. Arkansas passed legislation favoring CLT, and Ohio is doing it this year. Louisiana, Oklahoma and Wyoming are accepting CLT. This Test is gaining popularity among conservatives in red and purple states  and is getting the support of the US government in 2026. The Maryland Company behind this test is Maryland Learning Initiatives. Indiana passed legislation in March requiring its state universities to accept CLT scores. And North Carolina university system now accepts the CLT. Both CLT and SAT, ACT have Math and Reading Verbal tests, the CLT adds foundational texts from Western science, government, history and literature in ways not found in SAT, ACT. Students can take the CLT at home or at a testing site. More than 350 universities and colleges accept CLT says this report in Washington Post. The SAT and ACT use shorter passages and the reading material is bland and does not have the value that it could have from the western intellectual tradition. The passages in the CLT are more rigorous and include western religious tradition and thinkers but also poets, writers, scientists from the whole gamut of the experience of Europe and the United States of America. And also explore other countries and continents including China and India, from Aristotle to Gandhiji. ...

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The two incidents in July 2016 of shootings of police officers on July 7 with five killed in Dallas, and July 17 with 3 killed, have led to deep anguish among the 900,000 state and local law enforcement officers in the U.S. Videos showing shootings of African-American young men have led to protests in cities, and attacks by persons on the fringe. Police officers say they are now worried about their safety because of the ambushes in Dallas and Baton Rouge, and are taking extra precautions.

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The growing middle class in Mexico is to be seen in cities like Queretaro, far from the drug violence seen in cities on the Texas border. Even though growth has averaged only 2-3%, the number of Mexicans who see themselves as middle class in a country of over 100 million is 65%, according to a survey by pollster Jorge Buendia. The definition of middle class is a new refrigerator, a car and a couple of cellphones. Sometimes this is also aspiring to be or thinking you are middle class. A big change is the shift to small families. Astonishing as this may sound, Mexico's fertility rate has declined from 7.3 children per woman in 1960 to 2.3 today, according to the World Bank. The U.S. fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman.

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Atul Gawande in the New Yorker shows how doctors in McAllen, Texas prescribe half the tests that doctors in other comunities in Texas do. Frank cites the effectiveness of the salaried model used by the Mayo Clinic. This battle has been postponed for another day the current halth care reform bill. But crucially the failure to tackle this program and have the country shoulder another deficit burden for healthcare leaves the country with a serious liability of overspending, with guns and butter if the Afghnistan war adds up another big bill to the Iraq war bill.

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Israel announces it will go forward with the E1 settlement east of Jerusalem. This would separate the West Bank cities of Bethlehem and Ramallah from Jerusalem. This comes a day after the vote in the U.N. General Assembly granting observer status to Palestine.

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Compared to previous downturns, this one is differnt in that migration is slowing everywhere. This means economic recvery will be slower, because there won't be new migrants to depressed housing cities like Phoenix and others to reduce the stock of unsold homes.

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Stay at home lockdowns, closure of schools in South Africa and other African countries is harder because of lack of widespread internet, says this report in DW.com from South Africa. South Africa declared a 21 day lockdown on March 27. South Africa does better than the rest of Africa with 53% of the people able to use the internet. The internet access in other African countries is only for about one third of the people. This is actually lower than that in practice. Only 12% of Kenyans have internet in their homes, mostly in Nairobi and large cities, and 70% with internet access have this through their phones.

This provides opportunity to ensure wider use of radio as most homes have radio. There are new ways for teachers to interact with students. Teachers in Kenya hold a lesson on radio and students send in their questions on WhatsApp.

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Career changes through music, fashion furniture, leads to interior design for Brigette Romanek in Los Angeles. She remembers women who were strong in her life as she moved to different cities, her aunt, her grandmother. She says she learned from herself that she would not give up. she also learned she was creative. An episode in which she designed hand bags led to her realizing how important it was for people to feel good, feel confident. 

She says she likes to work late at night when it is really quiet. Romanek loves design from the 60's and 70's  and classics from that period, shapes from that period that were simple but fun. She talks about a large olive tree in a room, for calm and grounding. The indoors going outdoors as concept. Bringing positive moods in people's minds through objects of beauty.

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This report about 996, referring to nine am to nine pm 6 workdays a week, shows it is becoming highly unpopular among tech workers in China, as tech companies slash jobs and workers work longer hours. A campaign on GitHub a code sharing platform is called 996/ICU speaks of such gruelling hours as the way to end up in the ICU. It got 250,000 positive user comments.

This type of work at tech companies is leading to fatigue, chronic illness, stress and lack of any free time to think or even exercize, leading to health problems. Yet some company CEO's push 996 against the mounting evidence that this is not the best for employees and can lead to por producivity. Recent studies about the cities such as Mumbai, India, or Tokyo, Japan, show productivity is a fraction of the productivity in many European countries working normal hours. Mumbai vs. Dublin for example. Dublin has a lot higher productivity.

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Chennai, a city of 10 million in India faces a water crisis. It is approaching a situation of Day Zero when the water utility in the city can not any longer provide regular supplies of water through tap water. Tankers with water are used instead. This situation is a result of the 4 reservoirs used for Chennai water suffering from drought in the area- two are dry and the other two are almost dry. Water tankers supply water at the cost of an average salary of 9000 rupees  a month as shown in this story in the WSJ.

Cities such as Shimla, Managalore, Hyderabad, Delhi, also face water supplies crisis. All over India 600 million people live in water stressed areas, according to NITI Aayog, a government policy think tank. By 2030 the demand for water is expected to double. With weak monsoon rains the government is calling for water conservation.

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Global update on the pandemic April 7, 2020. The U.S. has 368,000 confirmed infections, and over 10,000 deaths, as of April 6, based on John Hopkins University data.

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe issued an order for a month long state of emergency covering Tokyo, Osaka and five other prefectures.

Philippine president Duterte extended the quarantine for Luzon island to April 30.

The lockdown was placed on Wuhan, China, epicenter of the pandemic on January 23. On March 25 about 2 months later some travel restrictions were lifted. On April 6 trains were allowed to leave for several cities in China. 

Countries in Europe that stepped in early with restrictions such as Denmark and Czech Republic moved to ease them a bit. Czech Republic and Austria will require people to wear masks outside.

 

 

 

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U.S. household net worth has surged a Fed quarterly report shows. But the winners are not the same people who lost out in the Great Recession. Home prices in Las Vegas, Pheonix and Miami are still well below - over 25%- than when they were at their peak before the recession, according to Case-Shiller price index. It is in cities such as San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and Charlotte that prices have surged. As for stock investments this is concentrated among the higher income and wealthier households. Core Logic shows the number of people underwater of 12 million at the peak, and this has declined to 3 million. Overall the trend is positive when combined with the Census report showing strong gain of median income of 5.2% in 2015, and shows Obama policies working in the right direction. Though it has taken time, still leaves many people behind in parts of the country, and for demographic groups such as older people who lost jobs in the recession.

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This WSJ podcast looks at the influx of 3 million refugees into Poland from war torn Ukraine. During the last two decades many people from Poland left the country to find jobs in the European Union and Britain. As a result there were more elderly in many parts of Poland and acute shortage of workers. In the long run Polish officials see the refugees as assimilating easily and welcomed by the people in Warsaw and other cities. The influx of new people is seen as a positive for Poland in the long run. Yet in the current situation there are concerns about the ability of Poland to cope with social services needed for the elderly and traumatized refugees.  About one million of the three million refugees now in Poland from Ukraine are children and there is a dire need for school teachers and other help. Many are women and elderly with young men remaining in Ukraine. Poland has asked the US and Canada for help with dealing with the huge influx of refugees in a period of 2 weeks. ...

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India's $1 billion credit line and about $2.5 billion in economic assistance comes at a critical time for Sri Lanka. Indian ties to Sri Lanka go back to the founding of the country with the landing of North Indian prince Vijaya in Tampabanni, cooper colored soil country. No other two nations have ties that go back so long in time to the Buddhist period in India when the Emperor Ashoka sent his son Mahinda with a branch of the Bodhi tree to Sri Lanka. India also provides a role model with Modi's sab ka vikas, sab ke sath, sab ka viswas, sab ka prayas, development for all, with all, with everyone's confidence, everyone's effort as the theme and policy for all of the nations in the Neighborhood Initiative. Another aspect of the ties is the revival of the Buddhist ties as India revives Buddhism and Buddhist religious places in India including Kushinagar where Lord Buddha gained Nirvana. It now has direct air links to major cities in Asia. ...

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The US is sending the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to Ukraine to counter Russian artillery and long range rocket attacks in the eastern Donbas region. This is part of a new $700 million 11th military aid package to Ukraine. Germany will provide its IRIS-T system to Ukraine with radar to track Russian artillery, so that entire cities can be protected from Russian artillery attacks. The US has obtained assurances from Mr. Zelensky that the HIMARS US system will only be used on Ukrainian territory and not into Russian territory. Ukraine currently lacks this type of system that reaches for 45 miles for its midrange system, and it is seen as crucial for defending Ukraine, as Ukrainians are being forced back with Russian artillery attacks. Mr. Biden in an article in the New York Times said the US goal was simply to see "a democratic, independent, sovereign Ukraine," not to oust Mr. Putin, or seek a broader conflict with Moscow. Mr. Biden said that this aid will make a diplomatic settlement more likely, as it will strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. ...

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The Biden Infrastructure Law provides the rural playbook for president Biden's plan to make huge investments for the revival of rural America. Supporting Americans living in rural areas is atop priority of the Biden Administration. This part of the White House site for Build America shows how these investments are being made by different areas and ministries in the government. It is delivering on the promises for a bette life for rural America- for high speed internet shrinking the relative isolation in rural America, new roads and bridges and improving existing infrastructure, modern wastewater systems, clean drinkig water, reliable and affordable electricity. The list goes on and on. No one growing up in rural America like Sandra Day O'Connor in the western United States or others in the heartland, in Kansas or Iowa, in white states or red states, in Republican or Democrat states, should face any sort of deprivation and have similar opportunities that their brothers and sitsers in suburbs and cities have. This is the vision of president Biden for the heartland of America and the western, southwestern, southeastern United States. ...

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A new terminal is taking shape at 41st st and 8th Ave. in New York City. This is the new $10 billion Port Authority Bus Terminal. NYT taks a look at the design of this new terminal that will replace one that had become old and haggard looking. Port Authority officials say the old building was a rundown 1950's era building that was a poster child for a failed infrastructure facility. The NYT says this brick building darkened two full blocks of midtown Manhattan. In its place will be a a brighter open looking space that is state of the art and has 2 office towers. Much of the US infrastructure was built in the period of the 1950's and 1960's. Much of it is crumbling and old, and the investment taking place step by step under the Biden plan for rebuilding infrastructure with trillions of dollars in investment is working. Construction will take 8 years by 2032 with coronavirus pandemic delay figured in. Step by step it will change the way cities, highways, airports, bridges will look in the US in the coming decade. ...

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President Macron calls it "the moment of truth" for Europe. The European Recovery Fund includes $500 billion in nonrepayable money to be handed out to countries hit hardest by the pandemic as a show of solidarity and support for the European community. Only one lone holdout are the Dutch, who have not earlier and today show little solidarity with the European community. It is supported by Merkel and the CDU, Macron, EU president Leyen, the head of the European Central Bank's Lagarde. This report in BBNC shows how the funds would be distributed- Italy 81 billion euros Spain  77 billion euros France   39 billion euros Poland 38 billion euros Greece  32 billion euros Germany 30 billion euros Portugal 17 billion euros France plans to put the 39 billion euros towards its own 100 billion euros recovery plan. 20 billion euros of this will go to insulating buildings and for bicycle lanes in cities in France.   ...

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post says people should be concerned about going back to the 70's when New York City struggled with funding and went downhill. The very goal of affordability that Mamdani is trying to achieve could end up being hit because the methods may not work at all. It says free bus service means a transit funding hole, city run stores would hurt privately run stores, and a rent freeze would depress housing supply. Greg Ip in the WSJ compares Austin with NYC with Austin seeing 20% increase in housing supply to NYC 3% in 2020-2024. Austin had a 23% jump in one year in housing prices but it came down and over 4 years rent increases in NYC are 20% in Austin 11%.  It is only that much of the New Yorker educated elites have let the city down so much by not finding solutions to the affordability crisis and not focusing on fixing infrastructure and modernization of the American cities, in the last three decades that this has happened- as a desperate young population turns to giveaways or free services across the board as a solution that never works. A fiscal crisis could happen as in the 1970's creating another vicious cycle says the Washington Post. It says one can only hope that the damage is at the margins. ...

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Companies like P&G and Walmart in Mexico, and Lever Brothers and Cadbury in India, are taking developing markets seriously and going after the low price points for products; selling in areas away from the large cities. See the links to Nestle,P&G and Walmart. Cadbury is adding another element, by investing in the growing of cocoa in southern India, to have access to a cheaper supply to meet those low price points. Cadbury Dairy Milk Shots, are pea sized chocolate balls with a sugar shell to protect them from the heat. This product was launched this year. It sells for 2 rupees or 4 cents for a five gram packet. The low price makes it accessible to more people. For Cadbury emerging markets are crucial for new growth, and affordability a critical way to go after this market. Emerging markets account for 35% of Cadbury's sales and 60% of the growth. The potential is huge considering India's low per capita consumption of chocolate. Half of the people in India have never tasted chocolate in their life. And India's total chocolate consumption is $465 million compared to $4.89 billion in the UK. Growth has been at about 20% for the last 3 years. Cadbury controls over 70% of the chocolate market and 30% of the confectionery market in India, with combined sales of $338 million, according to AC Nielsen. Nestle is next with 25% of the chocolate market. To keep prices low the company is moving factories to lower cost locations and improving its supply chain. It has setup 20 nurseries in southern India, from where saplings are sent to nearby farms for cultivation. Cadbury provides the saplings, technical expertise, and advice on where to get free government assistance in fertilizers. This is called the Cadbury Cocoa Partnership and has planted 5 million saplings in India in 2008. Another 7.5 million saplings are planned for 2009, and already Cadbury imports only half of its cocoa needs. Local coca costs 30% less because of a 30% tariff on imports....

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This report in WSJ cites the PM's office saying a tax cut just when tourism revenue slowed with the start of the pandemic reduced Sri Lankan government annual revenues by 800 billion rupees. The combined impact of the tax cut with the pandemic relief measures and drop in tourism revenues widened the budget deficit from 9.6% of GDP to 12.2% of GDP in 2020. PM Wickremasinghe has increased VAT from 8% to 12% to generate 65 billion rupees. And an additional 52 billion rupees from increasing corporate tax from 24% to 30%. The ill timed tax cuts and mismanagement of finances are at the roots of the economic crisis.