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As Turkey's trade ties with the other countries in the Middle East and Asia increase there is less support for joining the European Union. In 2004 12.5% of Turkey's exports went to the Middle East, today this is up to 20%. This figure is expected to increase after the Arab Spring and new economic opportunities in the region, according to one business group leader. Turkey's exports to Europe in 2010 were about 56%. As Cyprus takes the rotating presidency of the European Union in July 2012, Turkey plans to boycott the presidency and freeze negotiations. In 1974 Turkey invaded Cyprus and set up a rival government in the Turkish part of Cyprus. The talks may be abandoned if no progress is made by 2014, according to Turkish officials. Turkish public opinion is also shifting away from favoring joining the EU. Surveys by the German Marshall Fund show 38% of Turks saw membership as a good thing in 2010, compared to 73% in 2004.

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A shift in priorities away from focussing on high growth to lower sustainable growth was announced by China's premier Wen Jiabao at the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012. This shift will reduce investment in infrastructure, power generation and exports, which will affect the level of imports of commodities from commodity producing nations in the Middle East, Australia, Canada and Brazil. It should increase imports of software, computers, entertainment, tourism and high tech goods from the U.S. and Europe. Chinese leaders have said they would make this kind of shift for some years now but growth has consistently increased more than the target rate, and domestic consumption as a percentage of the economy has actually decreased in the last decade. Now 9-10% growth rates may be a thing of the past and the target of 7.5% set this year may be actually closer to the real figure. The Chinese leaders have belatedly realized the need to make these changes now because slowing markets in Europe -which is seeing declining growth and high unemployment- and in the U.S., make the issue impossible to avoid. Wen told the Congress: "Accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economc development... is both a long term task and our most pressing task at present... Domestically it has become more urgent but also more difficult... to alleviate the problem of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development." This is his way of saying that its unavoidable and better to start in earnest now, and at the same time recognizing the resistance to change from the stateowned companies and the other interests who have benefitted from surging growth, and now occupy a central role in the power structure. An opinion article in the People's Daily, China's official newspaper, said: "imperfect reforms are to be preferred to a crisis caused by no reforms." The World Bank's president Zoellick is respected by the Chinese leaders. He also urged them to make changes now. The recent report of the DRC, China's planning research arm, and the World Bank, also laid out the new direction away from a focus on infrastructure to domestic consumption. The fear is sudden deceleration in the absence of policy action. The impact of this will be negative for commodities over time, leading to slower growth in Australia, Brazil, and Canada. It should boost imports from Europe and the U.S. of high tech, consumer, pharmaceutical goods over time....

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France is moving quickly with spending on the $37 billion stimulus. Public buildings, museums, cathedrals and historical sites are being renovated in 2009. About 50 chateaus, and 75 cathedrals are part of 100 million euros for cultural centres. About 75% of France's stimulus money will be spent in 2009, in contrast to the slow work in the USA.

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China Investment Corporation, China's sovereign wealth fund is expected to issue upto 28 billion in bonds to help recapitalize China's state owned banks. These banks face the prospect of increasing bad loans as a result of the hectic pace of bank lending in 2009-2010. Loans guaranteed by muncipal governments are estimated at 7.7 trillion yuan, or 17% of overall lending, about 50% of these loans face uncertainty in the event of falling housing prices, and 25% are bad loans. The recent IPO of Agricultural Bank of China raised funds, but the environment for raising money in this way does not look good, as information is spreading that these banks face large loan losses. The bonds from CIC would be picked up by state controlled companies. Yet these state controlled companies are engaging in the real estate speculation, as reported by David Barboza of the New York Times and Peter Coy of Business Week. In a down cycle things could get much worse as a state sovereign fund is selling bonds, state controlled companies would buy these bonds, and state controlled banks are expected to be recapitalized making a complete circle....

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Xi Jinping is said to have brought up the collapse of the Communist Party in Russia under Gorbachev in a closed door Dec. 2012 meeting of Communist Party officials in Guangdong province. A summary of comments obtained by the media shows Jinping bringing up the situation in Russia, where he said the "ideals and convictions wavered," the system suffered decay, the military and the party went in different directions, leading to collapse of the Communist party system. In Jinping's words it took only one word from Gorbachev for dissolution of the Communist Party, and nobody else came out with a different view. Jinping faces several challenges- tackling corruption in the party, making changes in the economy that move it in a different direction from the dominance of the state owned enterprises, improving the condition of people left out by the economic boom from unemployed students and migrant workers to people in rural areas.

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H-P CEO Apotheker says that to be successful in the business of consumer devices like the PC it would have to invest a lot of capital that could be better invested elsewhere. This capital invested in a low margin business such as PC's coud be freed up to generate the size of capital H-P will need to compete in software and services with companies such as Oracle and IBM. As part of this makeover of H-P the company will take a $1 billion restructuring charge to shut down the tablet and smartphone operations. H-P invested $1.2 billion for the Palm acquisition in 2010 to acquire an operating system for those devices. Apotheker expressed disappointment with the sales of the tablet devices and smartphones. This decision happens 10 years after the decision by H-P to acquire Compaq Computer Corporation for $25 billion. In 2008 H-P acquired Electronic Data Systems for $13.9 billion. With the new strategy Apotheker is focussing on software. Apotheker brings experience in software as CEO of SAP Inc in his previous position and understands the software business. The agreement for the acquisition of U.K. software firm Autonomy for $10.3 billion this week is part of the makeover of H-P under Apotheker....

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H-P CEO Leo Apotheker defends H-P's plan to spin off its PC unit. He says it wasn't possible for H-P to invest enough in the business to be competitive and make the necessary structural changes needed in other parts of H-P's business. The new product development cycles are much faster than what a congomerate like H-P could accomplish in areas such as the tablet PC, as consumers are looking for a stream of new product devices. H-P's PC unit generated $40.1 billion in revenues and $2 billion in operating profit in the recent fiscal year. Analysts say H-P has overpaid for Autonomy, leaving less money available for additional strategic moves. Apotheker defended that decision saying the Autonomy acquisition makes it possible for H-P to skip a generation of technology as it enables businesses to make sense of unstructured data.

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The International Energy Agency says in areport that China's policy shift to develop green energy projects will reduce global greenhouse emissions by 2020. Lower economic growth worldwide and thefaster development of green energy will reduce the emissions by 5% by 2020. Instead of recent growth in emissions the lower economic growth will lower greenhous emissions by 3% this year.

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China expands the trading range of the yuan to 1%. The yuan is set by the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, at 6.2879 yuan per U.S. dollar on March 14, 2012 or 15 to 16 U.S. cents to the yuan. The yuan rate is set daily by the PBOC, called the parity rate, and was previously allowed to trade in a 0.5% trading range.

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Discussion in China's inner Communist party leadership circles about the way forward for democratic reforms, including free speech, and monitoring of government policy through criticism. This follows an unusually frank sppech in Shenzen in August, by premier Wen. A number of party elders call for further action in democratic reforms for better governance, and to curb corruption. The sense that China is reaching an impasse, and further development beyond what has been achieved in three decades requires democratic freedoms for the people of China. This has the potential to be a signifcant development, because it comes as economic policies of the past will have a harder time working now because of western resistance to high level of Chinese exports. The search for a new economic model may involve soul searching, and new thought on the political models that are needed now.

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EIA figures show U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, refined fuels and other petroleum products increasing to 1.149 billion barrels in the week ending Jan 2, 2015, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve. This is the highest ever since 1990, except for June 2013. Brent crude drops below $50 a barrel.

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Street protests in Brazilian cities with economic growth slowing to about 1% in 2012 and inflation at about 6%. Street protests in Brazil reflect public disconten over corruption, overspending on the World Cup and Olympics, and lack of good education, health and other public services. Increase in bus fare and police response against small protests using tear gas set off the large scale protests of tens of thousands in Brazilian cities. President Rousseff's sees her popularity ratings drop 8% percentage points from the March level to 57% in June 2013, according to polling firm Datafolha. Ths includes high popularity in poor northern states. Rousseff's popularity in more industrialized southern states declined by 13%, and by 16% among college educated youth.

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This briefing in the Economist says China now faces a difficult transition to its next phase of development, in which the government is trying to change the model used by Deng Xiaoping of export led development to a consumption based economy. That model produced spectacular results between 2000 and 2015 when the middle class went up from 5% of the population to 25% of the population, as measured by people living on more than $20 a day in 2011 $ purchasing parity, as reported by IMF, EIU. The problem China faces is can this development stall if it fails to tackle problems in the next phase, with an aspiring group behind the new middle class left behind. Recent jump in the stock markets volatility, devaluing of the currency, and confusing signals sent by the government have hurt its credibility. Demographic issues with an aging population, the destruction of the environment with rampant development, and how to manage this next phase of development with respect for the constitution and the rule of law replacing the high corruption levels, are serious challenges. Experts say it will be difficult to manage a transition to the next phase of development without some degree of democratization. The rise of the internet and the social media have created more avenues for expression, which gives the government some guage of public opinion, especially in tackling pollution, mismanagement, and other problems. The government sees the need to manage things carefully, with rising unemployment posing a problem as growth slows and the government closes down inefficient manufacturing facilities. ...

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About 400 million or one in 4 people people smoke in China. State ownership of the tobacco industry only makes this worse. Enforcement of bans on smoking is lax. Experts warn that this would become a major healthcare problem in China.

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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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Economist John Spence on advice to the Chinese government to tackle problems of shifting from an export based economy to one more dependent on domestic spending. And managing the shift upscale to sophisticated technologies from basic consumer goods.