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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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U.S. oil exports are expected to average 1 million barrels a day for all of 2017. In 2016 in some months the average was 1 million barrels a day. U.S. oil exports make up 1% of global oil volumes, yet the added inventory has helped keep prices in the range of $46  to $55 a barrel in mid 2017. American crude is at a $2.50 discount over the Brent crude benchmark, making it profitable to export to far away locations. Back-haul economics also helps as tankers coming back from the middle east can now take crude back with a stop in Europe. Oil exports go to China and Europe. Production declines in China have led to China importing from the U.S.

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This editorial in the WSJ after the New Hampshire primary, points out that the attacks by Republican candidates on each other instead of educating voters on Donald Trump, will only lead to them falling behind. During the Republican television debate the sharp exchange between Christie and Rubio hurt both candidates in New Hampshire. It says that one of Trump's important weakness is that one third of the voters who voted for Trump have reservations about him. Trump was also lagging behind in voter confidence in his ability to handle an international crisis. Ted Cruz was not able to win big with non evangelical voters in a state on the East coast, which would affect him as a Republican nominee in November 2016. It also points out that voter perceptions about Sanders are changing- voters may now see a "socialist" as electable, if Republicans can nominate a person with no serious credentials and a volatile temperament. Voters may also now see Clinton having electability problems of her own with the email controversy, and voter skepticism about her honesty and trustworthiness. The Democratic Party has shifted in the Obama years- with exit polls showing 7 of 10 Democrats in the New Hampshire primary saying they are liberals, and one fourth "very liberal." ...

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Clearing the land by burning dense forest vegetation is a long standing practice in the Amazon rain forest. In an effort to open up the Amazon for settlement and agricultural use the Brazilian government has encouraged people to settle there. Squatters can get title to the land at a discount if they clear the land and use it for economic activity. In 2017 pressure from the agricultural lobby resulted in a law for privatization of large portions of land. 90,000 titles were issued by the Ministry of Agriculture in 2018. Deforested land that has been converted to pasture can be very profitable. It can be sold at upto 6 times what the settler pays for the land to the government. The fines imposed by Brazil's environment agency Ibama are small in comparison to what farmers can make by deforestation.  During the election campaign Mr. Bolsonaro said he would rein in Inama and "not let it issue fines left and right." As a result about 30% fewer fines for violations, illegal burning and deforestation were issued since Bolsonaro became president in January 2019. During this period upto July 2019  deforestation is up 40%, according to Brazil's Institute for Space Research. Ibama employees  say the agency's budget was cut by 45% from 2010 to 2019. Bolsonaro's statements were used by rural leaders in the Amazon state of Para, allegedly organizing the fires along a highway across the rainforest to show support. Brazilian farmers say the problem is not with them because they realize it is hard to control fires once they are started. That it is the work of inexperienced settlers who do not understand the risks. The skies over Sao Paulo were darkened one day at noon as a result of the smoke from the fires moving south from the Amazon, causing the whole nation to take notice. International outcry has also caused alarm. Europeans are planning boycott of agricultural products from Brazil, with Finland calling for action banning beef imports. Fashion labels Vans, Kipling, Timberland, say they will not import Brazilian leather.  Now the agricultural lobby is waking up to a bigger problem that of international pressure in Brazil's export markets for agricultural products.  Even though Bolsonaro is taking action, and has said farmers and loggers would no longer be allowed to use fires to clear land, its hard to make the changes. Ibama and Brazilian authorites are unable to effectively patrol a rainforest this large covering 60% of Brazil's territory. Governors of Amazon states are saying land ownership laws have to be rewritten so that people can be held accountable for breaking the law. Experts at the Federal University of Minas Gerais say that the underlying problem is the government incentives to settlers, loggers and farmers to clear more land, and the environmental management agencies working to limit the damage from illegally set fires.  By setting a Wild West logic without realizing what he was doing the Brazilian president is now facing a problem controlling the fires. Bolsonaro is now calling for a 60 day halt to all fires in the Amazon. Long standing traditions, laws, practices, his own rhetoric are now in the way. Few people in Brazil realized that the fires out of control would eventually darken the skies over Sao Paulo one day at noon, causing an international outcry.     ...

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Solomon and Lee of the WSJ describe the role played by Ayatollah Ali Khamanei in the talks, down to the final days- as late as July 14, U.S. Secretary of State Kerry is described as asking his Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif, "do you have the mandate of the Supreme Leader?" Zarif replying that he was confident that he did. The media announcement of a deal came that same day July 14, 2015. The last weeks of the negotiations were conducted under the tension that if a deal was not reached quickly the Iranian military or some other factions could upset the deal. Even after the announcement of the deal in the media, Kerry was not certain, saying he never indicated he was confident, and it would all depend on its implementation. U.S. president Obama who initiated the contacts with Khamanei and his close advisors early in his presidency, said that the deal offered the U.S. and the world an opportunity to move in a new direction.

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A look at the views expressed in the blogs following the appointment of Jeffrey Immelt to head the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness shows considerable skepticism. Questions were raised about the deal signed by GE with China that involves sharing jet technology with China, shutting US plants to move work to China, the need for $16 billion in bailout funds for its finance unit, in one blog. Another blog points to the negligible amount paid by GE in corporate income taxes, paying no taxes in 2009 and paying 3.6% in 2010. And another blog pointed to the lack of a position by Immelt on the trade distortions created by America's trading partners, such as China's currency and other policies. One blog refers to the Obama election campaign's need to raise something near the record $700 million raised for the 2008 campaign, and the need to get business lined up for that effort.

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This Washington Post editorial says Obama and the politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, want something for nothing. The Ryan budget, Obama's health care plan, all require paying for it with higher taxes, but the mention of the word "tax" is the last word any of the politicians will say. These comments come as the U.S. Supreme Court considers the mandate that young Americans and others be forced to pay for health care along with the rest, as required by the health care mandate, with the idea of keeping costs down. The idea of getting something for nothing was also emphasized in an op-ed in the WSJ, March 29, 2012, by Mayor Bloomberg of New York City, where he called for letting the Bush tax cuts expire for all income groups, and an up or down vote in Congress on the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, as part of a two step plan.

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As many as 2 million votes in the 2014 Afghanistan elections are called into question. This is 2 million out of a total of 8 million. In the last election it is estimated 1.3 million fradulent votes were made for Hamid Karzai. This time it is said security officials, government officials and others worked together to get as many as 2 million votes for Asraf Ghani, who Karzai supports. This is happening even as the Taliban are increasing attacks in the country and the Americans are withdrawing. It shows that instead of a withdrawal that the Obama administration promised their appears to be a situation that is no different from that of the Bush administration, where American lives were lost and sacrifices made without even the most basic results- no assurance that if the government collapses from strains within and outside, Taliban and terrorism could not happen again as is hapening in Iraq.

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Putin's reaction to the falling ruble with declining oil prices adding to the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy is to blame the Western countries for a "civilizational" conflict against Russia that is centuries old. President Obama speaking about the same time to a Business Roundtable meeting says Putin was taken by surprise during the changes in Ukraine and has improvised his way since then, using Russian nationalism in a way that is taking the country backwards in history. Merkel makes the same point and says the Federal Republic of Germany has taken a new positive direction, learning from past history. This has led to a loss of credibility for Putin as seen at the G-20 meeting in Australia in 2014, as the opening of the Russian economy and the efforts to improve Russia's standard of living in an atmosphere of trust and international cooperation is replaced with distrust and misgivings by these policy improvisations.

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Two statements by Republican leaders in Congress show the seriousness with which they are approaching the issue of hacking by Russia during the U.S. presidential election of 2016. Senator Mitch McConell: "The Russians are not our friends, we need to approach all these on the assumption the Russians do not wish us well," strongly condemning the hacking. Rep. Paul Ryan: "As I've said before, any foreign intervention in our elections is entirely unacceptable. And any intervention by Russia is especially problematic because, under President Putin, Russia has been an aggressor and undermines American interests."

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Reporters at the Washington Post put together the events leading to the formation of a bloc of freshman Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives who refused to compromise on debt ceiling and deficit reduction negotiations. The role of Cantor, McCarthy and Ryan in these events.

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Scott Anderson of the NYT provides an indepth look at the Arab World and its fragmentation through the eyes of five people from each part of the Arab world- Egyptian, Kurd, Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian. He says the countries that fell apart are precisely the ones that were formed by the British and the French, and Italy, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire  using divide and rule policies- Britain in Iraq, France in Syria, and Italy in Libya- without much thought given to setting up viable nation states. This is why Iraq has a Sunni-Shia divide, Syria has similar divisions, and Libya with a largely tribal based structure, never really held together after the colonial powers left, and were held together only by strong dictators. Today's problems trace back to these historical events. This is complicated by the largely young demographic and restlessness of the people for change coupled with problems of underdevelopment in education, tribal loyalties, religious loyalties, and lack of political and social structures that could keep the countries together as change and transition to democratic processes took place. The role of the military further complicated matters in Egypt. Even Iran experienced these divisions because of the intervention of the great powers including Russia in Iran since 1900, leading to swings between liberal governments, foreign power supported governments, and a swing back to religious leadership as at present. This is one view of the region, others are presented by Ramadan (Oxford),  Bernard Lewis (Princeton), and leaders in Qatar and Emirates, other experts, some of whom point to the failure in leadership and the elites to find solutions to the problems of underdevelopment, in education, health, infrastructure, and aspirations for a voice in their governance. As the same divisions left by colonial powers affected Asia- in India, China, and Korea, but a larger vision of progress prevailed through crises and difficulties.        ...

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Greg Ip tells India's story, piped water for hundreds of millions of Indians, massive increases in road and rail, rapid development of infrastructure, aviation, ports logistics. WSJ graph shows country growth of economies for Japan, China, India, Germany in 2000 and 2020. By 2000 Japan had grown its economy to become about half the size of the US economy with two decades of rapid growth since 1980. China repeated this process with two decades of hyper growth since 2000 to become about 75% of the US economy by 2020. The graphs also show Japanese growth tailing off so rapidly after 2000 in relation to the US economy that it is now only about 25% of the US economy. China is likely to follow the same path as growth slows and with an aging population to become about 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from 75%. India following the process that happened in Japan and in China is likely to become close to 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from about 18% today, with the fastest growth over the next two decades for the most populous country in the world. Greg Ip points out what has been achieved since 2014 with the Modi government. Good governance without leakages of public funds dedicated to infrastructure, ease of living, GST one India one tax so that growing pool of funds from taxes fund rapid development with no leakages to corrupt officials,  Swacch Bharat or Clean India, clean water from taps, electricity and cooking gas for the whole population of India with dates for completion. All this Ip calls removal of the shackles that existed for far too long even past 2000 and 2010 when China had vastly surpassed India from its low point in 1980 after Mao and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. India today is in as much a pace of development as China in the 1990's and Japan in the 1960's, except that it now has the benefit of grasping how development can be done in a way that does not affect climate and health in adverse ways as happened with China's hyper growth -which also led to the tragic loss of manufacturing for workers and communities in the US and Europe due to the economic theories of laissez faire of the Reagan era. Reagan theory for governments not working with industry that were applied indiscriminately during the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies for three decades led to shipping manufacturing overseas with no regard for the risks and dangers. What Greg Ip fails to mention is the uniqueness of India that is united by Vedanta, Hinduism and Buddhism for thousands of years, and which keeps the fabric of society together when it is divided by 13 language groups. These 13 language groups are: Hindi 43% of the population, Bengali 8%, Marathi 7%, Telugu 7%, Tamil 6%, Gujarati 5%, Urdu 4%, Kannada 4%, Odia 3%, Malayalam 3%, Punjabi 3%, Assamese 1%, English 1%. It was the vision of the early leaders Vivekananda, Gokhale, Mohandas Gandhi, Nehru, Sardar Patel, that united a diverse country with many languages and cultural variation. And it is this vision of Vivekananda that is creating the Good Governance under Sab ka Vikas, Sab ka Viswas, Sab ke Saath, Sab ka Prayas of today- development for all, with the confidence of all, with the support of all, the efforts of all. Without a disciplined direction based on hard work India could not make it this far or fulfill the aspirations of its youthful population by 2040. ...

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A survey of 414 National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economists shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 15%, overtaking Trump at 14% on who would best manage the economy. On protectionist views only 9% support this. 15% said they have no opinion and 55% said Hillary Clinton would do the best job of managing the economy. About 62% say the election uncertainty is holding back growth. Some aspects of Hillary Clinton's economic plan are the $275 billion infrastructure investment over 10 years, taking action against companies that ship jobs overseas, a capital gains tax paln that encourages long term investments, supporting $15 minimum wage, making upward mobility a top priority, providing government financed access to public colleges for working class and lower income groups. Donald Trump's plan has suffered form lack of specifics, shifting comments, lack of careful study, and excessive use of slogans. Both candidates oppose trade agreements that shift jobs overseas. Trump's plan also suffers from lack of credibility overseas as this is important in a global business structure, with fears of protectionism increasing. and reminding people of the protectionism under Smoot-Hawley that increased the damage from the depression of the thirties. ...

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Mohammed bin Salman, 31 years old, is made the successor to his father King Salman. Prince Nayef, 57, the crown prince is removed from this position. Nayef was Interior Minister. After the current king assumed office in Jan. 2015, he promoted his son to the position of defence minister, overseeing the state oil company and overseeing economic affairs. He put together a plan Saudi Vision 2030, and the kingdom has taken a larger role in international affairs under his leadership as the U.S. under the Obama administration moved away from the Saudi policies in Bahrain, Egypt, and Yemen. Under Salman the Saudi kingdom has moved to confront Iran in Syria and Yemen supporting opposite sides in the conflict, and with Saudi aircraft bombing targets in Yemen.  Recap- for more depth see groups and links and search. In international affairs the Saudis grew restive as the Obama administration failed to setup a no fly zone in Syria to protect its Sunni population. Following the chemical weapons attacks in Syria the lack of a U.S. response led to the Saudis turning down a Security Council seat.  Early confrontation occurred in Bahrain with a Shiite population and Sunni government. The Saudis then intervened to support Sissi in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhood government as the liberals drifted away from the Brotherhood. With Iranian and Russian support for the Syrian government in Damascus against rebels, the Saudis began to use oil policy leading to an effort to let oil prices fall by loosening production limits, believing it would hurt their rivals even more. This hurt Iran, Russia and Saudis, each in a different way. Some of the roots of the Russian involvement in Syria are also related to this. Russia responded to the oil price drop by relying less on exports, and letting devaluations help the Russian economy become more self sufficient. Iran by working to get a deal with the Obama administration on nuclear development to get out of the sanctions regime that hurt Iran's economy. The Saudis cut some subsidies and Prince Salman led the effort for an initial public offering for Saudi state oil company Aramco. As time progressed the Arab Spring with protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and even before that in Iran for greater freedom, morphed into a sectarian struggle between Shiites and Sunnis. The roots of Islamic State are in the unrest in Mosul, Iraq's largest city, with the Shiite government of a pro-Shiite prime minister, leading to the fall of the city to the militants. He was replaced by the current prime minister Abadi to accomodate U.S. insistence on keeping out sectarian sentiment. This is why the problem is so intractable. Desire for freedom plays a role, but religion also plays a role, not only that but there are two versions of Islam in the region.  Remember Gandhi's admonition- "an eye for an eye that makes the whole world blind," as India struggled to set up a democracy in the South Asian region, after the British left.         ...

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Student loan default reaches 22% in 2017 up from 17% in 2013. Defaulted loans are $84 billion or 13% of $631 billion required to be paid by borrowers.