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Obama is not going to shy away from developing a solution for the 12 million estimated illegal immigrants in the country, for some form of path to legal staus. The issue will be taken up this year. It does not have the same priorities as health care and energy and education, but as a human issue it will be addressed this year. The lives of people who are doing a lot of the work Americans normally do not want to do is entertwined with the economic crisis, as the lives of these immigrants are likely to be made even more difficult by this crisis. The idea is to give those who are here, and as it appears are likely to remain here, and their families, the opportunity to lead normal lives. Not see families broken or torn apart as a husband or wife has status and the other does not, or lives worsen for those who have done the menial and labor intensive jobs in factories, agriculture and in construction, that Americans born to parents from an earlier generation of immigrants do not wish to do because they have better opportunities. As it is an issue that has drawn opposition and aroused emotions, it will be tackled by framing it as "policy reform that controls immigration and makes it an orderly system." Rep. Gutierrez, who is from Chicago, is building support for the cause by speaking at churches around the country, and having church leaders speak at these meetings, in a movement that is reminiscent of the civil rights struggles for black people. Mr. Obama will speak publicly on the issue in May, in the summer he will convene working groups, including lawmakers from both sides and a range of immigration groups, to begin discussing possible legislation by early fall. The plan would not add new workers but normalize the living conditions of people already here, and who information shows are not returning home. Its also supported by a key and growing constituency in American politics, the Hispanic voters. It was a campaign promise that Obama intends to keep, and if successful only draws the Hispanic vote closer to Obama....

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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Of the people asked the question "what issue do you see as the most important for health care" 44% in a NBC/WSJ poll said they considered Cost as the biggest issue, and 37% said that they considered the Uninsured as the biggest issue, 11% said quality of care was the biggest issue. The President is focussing on cost as he develops the health care plan. He is also saying that to provide health care for all and cover the uninsured without controlling costs would break the bank. Another thing that the White House shows it has learned from previous failed attempts, is that it is doing this with an open Health Care Forum with participation of different sides in the health care discussion. Clinton's effort in 1993 ran into problems because it was developed secretively, and without much discussion, and little effort to get different people's views. The previous attempt also waited too long after the election, and this time the President is moving quickly when he enjoys large popular support. Its also true now that there is serious concern especially in this downturn of what a threat spiralling costs of health care are becoming to the future prosperity of the American people. This time the leaders in Congress are setting an aggressive schedule to get health care palns legislation on the floor by June and get a floor vote in August 2009....

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David Brooks says the Paul Ryan Budget proposal is a bold step forward that is badly needed in this debate on health care, even though it has some grave weaknesses which need to be corrected. It is a bold step forward because he says Democrats say they want no middle class tax increases, or are not willing to say what kinds of tax increases they support, and yet they believe the Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security programs are worth preserving. This is'nt based on reality. He cites the weaknesses, beginning with the one discussed in David Leonhardt's column in the New York Times on April 7, 2011. Too many Americans pay too little into Medicare taxes and expect to collect several hundred thousand dollars more in Medicare benefits. The example given in Leonhardt's column is from a study that shows 56 year olds with average earnings pay about $140,000 in dedicated Medicare taxes over a lifetime, and then go on to collect $430,000 in benefits. Middle class and affluent boomers can't get off paying their share like everybody else. Its just the right way for their children and the nation's children. Ryan's plan excludes older people reaching retirement in ten years. The other major weakness is that the cuts are too deep. Things like the Pell grants which Ryan proposes to cut back to 2008 levels need to be preserved, and more money has to go into science, education and research and early childhood education for the U.S. to be competitive with China and India. The Ryan proposal places cuts that would be required so that tax revenues need to be at 18% of GDP. The number where a larger consensus exists is for tax revenues at 20% of GDP (also supported by business and the Wall Street Journal's editorial columns). This would preserve programs that are most productive for the economic future of the U.S. Ryan's proposal lets the hope for reducing costs of medical care rest entirely on future retirees deciding how much medical care (tests, procedures etc) they consume through larger cost sharing. Yet a structure and framework is needed to manage these costs effectively, and some combination of incentives to retirees to control costs and an effective structural framework is needed. ...

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Some straight talk from Bethany McLean on why Congress which repealed Glass-Steagall and refused to regulate derivatives. She says the Fed and the SEC which did nothing while all the excesses and risky behaviour were playing out on Wall Street should also join Goldman on the hot seat. The Office of Thrift Supervision and the Comptroller of the Currency, she points out actually used their power not to protect but to prevent predatory lending laws. And the ratings agencies signed off with AA ratings for a lot of junk. McLean tells readers Goldman's idea that what is good for Goldman is good for America is downright scary. She is a former Goldman employee who reminds readers that Goldman's 14 principles had integrity right up on the list, something Tourre and other higherups at Goldman simply lost sight of.

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Not a very flattering picture of the chancellor. She has already lost 1.3 million CDU voters to the Greens, and about 260,000 to the far right AfD party. In all about 4.3 million CDU voters have shifted from Merkel's CDU to other parties on the right or the left and to the Greens, between the general elections of 2017 and the European elections in 2019, according to Infratest Dimap. It had 33% of the vote in 2017, now it polls at 27%, down 6 points. The Greens come next at 22%, in recent Politico poll. Merkel's sentiments may have overtaken the reality of how much Germans wanted to integrate war and economic refugees from Africa and Asia. She has since revised her judgement that it was a decision made at the time based on what happened at that time without enough time to prepare for the sudden influx of refugees from Budapest. A new party the Alternative for Germany AfD emerged from the migrant crisis in the eastern part of Germany that had 13% of the votes in 2016, building on discontent from reunification, depopulation of the east, and a sense of drift and neglect. Even a sense that the affluent western part of Germany was more concerned about refugees than its own economically insecure countrymen in the east. After being in power since 2005 Merkel's period shows signs of aging. Her record on investment infrastructure and health, education and child care is also found to be weak. The effort to maintain austerity for so long following the financial crisis of 2008 by profligate banking and bad accounting by member states in the EU including Ireland, Spain and Greece, has hurt parts of the middle and working class stuck with low wages and inequality in the EU and in Germany. The migrant crisis and refugees have split her party and German opinion adding to the problems of the economy in the EU and Germany.  ...

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If the decline in manufacturing in rural southern Virginia for 500 workers in a low tech deli meatpacking plant can devastate whole communities, then imagine what happens  when manufacturing in chips and science with high paying jobs are put at risk by market forces focused on AI.  This week WSJ carried a story about Qualcomm which does design and does no manufacturing is planning a takeover of Intel, a leader in manufacturing for advanced chips in the US, a key part of Biden-Harris strategy to regain a American foothold in Chips manufacturing. Such a takeover makes no sense for America's long term interests. Qualcomm could simply jettison the manufacturing capabilities -a key part of America's long term chips and science strategy just because AI focus has distorted market forces. IMAGINE THE DAMAGE. Regulators need to safeguard the Nation's long term interests for reliable chips manufacturing within the US, to avoid the crisis experienced with chips outsourced overseas leading to severe shortages in 2021-2023. How this has happened is that AI has created distortions in the market so that companies are valued differently. So that an Nvidia gets valued at $1 trillion and even for a day at $2 trillion then going back down to half that, all within a 12 month period. AI is distorting the market in ways that a chip leader like Intel now gets valued at $90 billion a third of the $290 billion it is valued at only a short time ago, making talk of takeovers possible even from smaller design only companies such as Qualcomm. The market failure in this case comes from markets being distorted by not reflecting true costs of shortages America experienced in chips from lack of its own advanced manufacturing during 2021-2023.   ...

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Leonhardt argues that rationing is rational allocation of limited resources, health care budgets are limited resources even in rich countries like the USA, and if you overpay here you cut somewhere else. Now the cuts that are not noticed he says are in take home pay as employers face increased premiums from insurers. Rationing is taking place all the time with poor health outcomes relative to the cost for poor allocation of resources as survival rate for many diseases are not that much better than other countries. Rationing takes place everyday when patients see doctors only for a few minutes as doctors race to see more patients, and when diseases are not caught early on in the process as doctors do not know their patients well enough. And rationing is taking place as patients simply delay or forego treatments based on the extra cost, or as uninsured get no care. There are so many buzzwords like this thrown around, with doctors, hospitals and insurers and other groups trying to preserve the status quo, even as it is becoming rapidly unaffordable fort the US to be spending so much on health care....

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Deborah Solomon interviews Abby Cohen of Goldman Sachs. Cohen is asked about bank bonuses and compensation, about the role of the banks in the financial meltdown, and whether she and Goldman Sachs felt any responsibility for the economic crisis.

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The rarely mentioned origins of the U.S. Medicare reform proposal of Rep. Paul Ryan and Rep. Ron Wyden, which includes work done at the Hoover Institution and liberal think tanks, in a debate subject to distortions on all sides.

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CEO's of more than 80 large U.S. companies have come together behind a plan that would reduce the U.S. federal deficit with tax revenue increases and reduced spending. The CEO statement was organized by the Fix the Debt campaign, a bipartisan effort inspired by Republican Alan Simpson and Democrat Erskine Bowles of the 2010 Simpson-Bowles Deficit Commission. The CEO statement calls for an overhaul of the U.S. tax code to eliminate or reduce deductions, credits and loopholes (reduction of tax expenditures also referred to as "broadening the base"). The CEO statement says any fiscal plan to succeed has to control increases in health care spending, make Social Security solvent, and include "comprehensive and pro-growth tax reform, which broadens the base, lowers rates, raises revenues and reduces the deficit." This is the first time a large group of business leaders have supported raising taxes as part of an overall solution. This puts together elements of the Bowles-Simpson plan, reduces deductions and loopholes, lowers rates as part of overall tax reform and cutting spending. The CEO statement says the Simpson Bowles recommendations for $3 in spending cuts for every $1 in tax increases was an "effective framework" for tackling a problem that affects the economic well being and security of the U.S....

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A whole range of issues can be seen in the debt crises in developing countries. The margin for error shrinks with poor governance, lack of honest assessment and transparency for finances, wars and conflicts within or outside the countries, living beyond their means, lack of focus on development, infrastructure that is unproductive or unaffordable including some Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure at higher interest rates. Countries that are dependent on overseas remittances, tourism, that were hit hard by the pandemic have seen their finances further weakened reducing the margin for error even more to the point that the smallest tipping point can lead to huge crises. Once the finances are weak all it takes is an external tipping point that creates serious crisis. The war in Ukraine with shortages of wheat, fertilizer and skyrocketing oil prices acted as that tipping point. Because this was a major blow the crises have a level of magnitude that is more than a payments crisis. One sees this in South Asia in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and in the Middle East for countries such as Egypt and Tunisia shown in this WSJ report. It is now not simply a crisis but a crisis of great magnitude because in the case of Sri Lanka and Pakistan this WSJ report says that both countries foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to the point where they can pay for only one or two months of imports according to central bank data, analysts and IMF. This crisis has affected countries that were seeing steady foreign investment such as Turkey for decades, then a sharp falloff in foreign investment with a change in the climate for foreign investment. The crisis has taken the form of high inflation, significant depreciation of currency that makes imports costlier so that shrinking revenues from loss of remittances, tourism, or other sources will now have less value in supporting import needs. Lack of a credible path can delay setting a path out of the crisis. The $1.5 billion fuel and electricity subsidy made by the prime minister of Pakistan in late February was done without IMF approval leading to the IMF program having to be renegotiated. Lack of national political and cultural consensus on a solution simply makes it that much more difficult to find the way through it. In this regard South Korea was able to tackle the 1997 financial payments crisis effectively because of a national consensus. The situation in Egypt- Egypt has borrowed $20 billion from the IMF since 2016., placing it second to Argentina in aid from IMF since 1980's.  In 2020 and 2021 Egypt' government spent more than 40% of its revenue servicing its debt, and is forecast to do the same in 2022. The situation in Tunisia- A shortage of sugar, flour, and other critical supplies, and government delaying wage payments to civil servants. The government got $400 million in financing last month from the World Bank and hopes to secure a lifeline from the IMF. Compared to the period between the 2 World Wars the two bright spots are China and India where lessons of the past of civil wars, religious or political conflict, and poor governance, lack of knowledge of how the western countries industrialized and modernized, was replaced with the conviction that drives patient effort, courage in the face of adversity, honesty, and humility to learn including from western countries that have forged their own path through the same difficult road. The most difficult experiences have offered lessons which were learned- for South Korea the Korean War and invasion from the north, China the civil war and Japanese invasion, for India the partition of India and million of refugees. Stagnation from stumbled efforts also taught lessons, the Great Leap Forward in China, the License Raj with corruption in India.       ...

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Much of the debate in Germany today is around the topic of reunification, was it good or bad for Germany, and why there is an issue of a separate identity in the East. Most East Germans feel they live in a separate country with a separate identity. This issue has social cultural and political consequences, says the Economist.    The CDU is increasingly facing questions about how it has turned out for East Germany. It is losing votes to the AfD in Saxony, Thuringia, and other places in the east. The migration crisis in 2015-2016 created new fault lines. When the Integration minister in a government in Saxony, which includes east German city of Leipzig, talked to people in her state why Germany was helping refugees, she was told to first integrate East Germans.  East Germans do not like resources being wasted on refugees when they feel left out themselves in their own country. After reunification of Germany by chancellor Kohl in 1990 about 8500 companies in the east were privatised or liquidated leading to a loss of jobs in old industries such as mining. Many of these older people ended up in odd jobs and then on Hartz IV, skimpy unemployment benefits. At unification 1 million people moved to the west from the east, predominantly younger people and predominantly women.  Over time one fourth of the population in the east 18-30 years moved to the west, two thirds of them women. Rural areas especially hit hard, with tax revenues slumping, shops and schools closed. Some estimates are that 80% of east Germans were out of work at one point. The humiliation their parents felt is only now being discussed as children in the east talk to their parents about what happened and the hardships their parents suffered 25 years ago. Was unification done the right way is a topic for discussion today. Today the east is much older than the west. Since 1990 over 60's increased by 1.1 million even as the overall population dropped by 2.2 million. In future some districts in the east will have 4 funerals for every birth say forecasters. So what could have been done differently in 1990 so that East Germans did not end up feeling like a "colonized people" by a biased western exploitative culture that portrayed them as culturally inferior and with very little that the west could learn from. Today it is said that the government agency Treuhand that handled closure of businesses could have moved slowly. The 1:1 transfer of west german currency for east german currency was to make east german companies uncompetitive overnight, and should have mitigating plans to tackle the problems of keeping these businesses in operation to keep local jobs. A new constitution and economic plans could have been written, a transition period for such a constitution and economic plan be put in place, so that changes could be studied and plans made to reduce the negative effects.  Culturally there was something the east did better. It had a culture of social solidarity that could have provided lessons for the west.  The good aspects in the east such as respect for women and encouraging them to work outside the home, free child care, the welfare state protecting vulnerable groups, could have lessons for the west to emulate and adopt practices. This would have given easterners a sense of self-respect as in some ways the German Democratic Republic (GDR) as the country was called in the east, had aspects that the west could learn from. For this to happen west Germans need to change their views- half of them see the reunification as a success, two thirds of east Germans see it as a failure culturally, and socially, and wrought with the economic impact of sudden shift in population and business, and loss of most productive young people to the west. ...

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The situation in nursing homes and eldercare is a huge black eye says this report from Canada. The situation is poor also in the U.S. and Britain. All the Anglo-Saxon countries appear to have the same problem of neglect of eldercare and homes for older citizens compared to say Japan, Germany or France with different healthcare systems and more invested in these areas of health and older citizens.Look at the numbers- in Canada 80% of deaths from coronavirus among older people in nursing homes. Next Ireland at 62%, and the U.S. at 40%. This report says these elder care facilities in Canada are run down, poorly equipped and understaffed. Canada's armed forces sent medics to the nursing homes in Quebec and Ontario and their reports are described as distruging and worrisome by prime minister Trudeau. In these countries lawmakers and policymakers have failed, and the culture of investing in areas other than health and public services and infrastructure, has failed the people. A poor scorecard for this generation of politicians, lawmakers, and leaders both in business and the government. ...

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Senate Finance Committee chairman says Senate Democrats have found ways to reduce the cost of the health care plan from $1.6 trillion to $1 trillion. A tax on some employer provided health benefits, cuts in Medicare and Medicaid spending, employers helping to pay the cost of health insurance for low-income workers, and limiting the eligibility for subsidies to households with incomes at 3 times the poverty level or $66,150, instead of 4 times the poverty level. Also a reduction in the plan to give tax credits to small businesses to help them buy insurance. And expansion of Medicad would be delayed to 2013.

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The American Medical Association came out against the public option in President Obama's health care reform plan. The outpouring of comments on this article show that public opinion today seriously questions the actions of the AMA, and think that this is not in the best interests of the nation. Its the kind of outpouring of criticism that GM's old management received from readers fed up with the management of the Detroit automakers, before the GM bankruptcy. Out of the 26 most read or recommended comments on this article shown on the link to the article in the NYT, 25 were strongly critical of the AMA's position on health care, none were in favor, and one was critical of the insurance companies. The 25 that were strongly critical had a total of reader recommends of 6539 readers when they were totalled up for all 25 comments. Some of these comments were strongly critical and explained at length why. Some were from doctors who disassociated themselves from the AMA. One suggested that the American College of Physicians also represented doctors, and the AMA represented only one group of mostly older doctors who are against any change. The financial crisis and the election of a new President, the changes in the country since the last failed reform effort in 1993, the new mood of the country as it changes to its more frugal past, a new generation of doctors and a new generation of young people coming to the fore, all may mean that things are no longer the same, and actually very different. Are the people running the AMA, like the people who were running GM a short time ago, not able to see how they are perceived by the public? ...

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The Institute of Medicine releases areport of the 100 health topics that should get high priority, as the Obama adinistration proceeds with a plan to $1.1 billion to compare the effectivenesss of treatments. Some of these areas for research are prostate cancer treatments, a surgical procedure called ablation, and others.

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The NYT editorial says budget reconciliation should kick in if by a certain date in the fall bipartisan agreement is not reached. With budget reconciliation, the term for a expedited processs, health care legislation can pass by a simple majority vote. NYT says bipartisan agreement is a good thing, but more important is effective health care reform. And there is little evidence of Republican cooperation so far on any issue.

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WSJ's CEO council advocates a goal of 10% electric cars by 2020 and upto 50% of the fleet by 2030. Other top priorities of the CEO's from Google, Intel, Time-Warner, Fedex and other companies at a recent 1 day conference were obesity, a stimulus program in excess of $300 billion, and restarting the Doha round of talks for global trade.

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With 10.3 million workers unemployed according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and this includes 2.8 million added this year so far in 2008. Most of the people who lost their jobs also lost their health benefits. This increases the urgency for the Obama administration to come up with action in the health care area as the ranks of the uninsured will grow in 2009.