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In this exceptional report of the housing market in Roanoke, Virgina, Neil Irwin talks to builders, home buyers, renters and young people. San Francisco and Washington D.C. are the exception in housing markets- hundreds of America's midsize cities like Roanoke are seeing smaller rates of household formation leading to a decline in demand for single family homes and fewer homes being built. This accounts for a large part of the smaller growth in U.S. GDP. There are he points out about 2.3 million missing households as a result of a significant change in home buying patterns that is reducing demand for new construction of single family homes. During the period 2001-2006, before the 2008 global financial crisis, the rate of new U.S. household formation was about 1.35 million annually. This dropped to 569,000 in 2007-2013, as the effects of the crisis were felt in a deep recession. One result is more young people are postponing buying a house and living with their parents. Faced with large student debt- the total U.S. student debt passed $1 trillion for the first time recently- purchases of homes are becoming more dfficult. Of 18-34 year olds 27% lived with their parents before 2006, according to Labor Department data. This went up to 31% following the recession. Lack of good jobs is another factor. In 2014 March only 63% of 18-24 year olds had jobs. Even young people older than 24 with jobs felt it necessary to save money by living with their parents. More retirees too are moving into apartments....

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Connors and Magalhaes provide an exceptional account of the work of nine young prosecutors in Brazil, including Deltan Dallagnol, a Harvard trained law graduate, Carlos Santos Lima, a Cornell law graduate, and Paulo de Carvalho, in looking into the corruption and money laundering at Petrobras. Contracts for work given out by Petrobras to construction firms were inflated in value, and 3% of the inflated value was given to executives at Petrobras, or to the fund of the ruling Workers Party of Brazil. Dallagnol is a prosecutor in Curitiba, a small provincial city. He detected unusual movement of money, where a local car wash showed a new Land Rover being gifted to a Petrobras executive, in an apparent money laundering effort. Appointments at high levels are made by the government, and the current president who has not been implicated, was at one time chairman of Petrobras. In Brazil, as in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries, politicians were known to have misused public funds, but were able to act with impunity because the legal system made it difficult to impose strict penalties. The effort by the young prosecutors in Brazil is an effort to bring changes to the legal system so that this type of near impunity no longer exists. It is the first step to bringing serious changes and increasing public awareness for change. The result in Nigeria is a huge loss in Africa, with the electricity system for the entire country the size of what it would take to light up one medium sized American city. In India with the lack of roads and electricity in rural areas of many states, the misuse of public funds is a similiar burden on the people. Brazil is coming out of a borrowing binge in the last ten years which is leading to a credit crunch in the country and near junk bond status for Petrobras, Brazil's largest company, which experts predict will lead to a contraction in the economy in 2015-2016. ...

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Efforts by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to mediate differences between Qatar, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, and Egypt's military government under Sissi, as the security threats in the region intensify. At the Gulf Cooperation Council meetings an effort to reduce differences between the Saudis and U.A.E. with Qatar, as the Middle East fragments bringing conflict to Libya and Iraq, in addition to Syria. Islamic State now threatens Saudi Arabia. The U.S. operates its main command center from Doha, Qatar. Iran supports the U.S. and Iraq under the Abadi government as it works to reduces sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions and push back Islamic State. The Saudis and Iran now find themselves on the same side and see the need to reduce Shiite-Sunni tensions to restore peace to the region. This is the new background to the efforts to heal regional tensions in 2014-2015, as a reluctant Obama administration takes up American responsibility to restore peace to the region and avoid fragmentation....

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Tesco's decision to exit the U.S. market in Dec. 2012. Tesco's U.S. plan was made after research showing buyers would favor smaller stores than large supermarkets, and more fresh products. Tesco made its entry in the U.S. market in 2007 in Nevada, California and Arizona in areas with new housing projects. When the mortgage crisis hit in 2008, foreclosures and the recession affected these areas where new stores were opened. Some of the ideas were lost in the implementation. The format that worked in Britain failed to takeoff in the U.S. Many stores were located in area where people were used to driving longer distances and could find a larger store with more selection a few minutes away. American buyers preferred to shop for name brands with more selections, Tesco carried more house brands. Experts say Tesco failed to establish a clear proposition to buyers. Tesco faces a loss of 1 billion pounds on the U.S. venture.

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It is too early to say it is a playbook. Trudeau's action may be more effective in the long run. The issue of fentanyl from Mexico is different in 2025 from the first term of DJT in 2016, 8 years later with 490,000 deaths from fentanyl in the US, a part of America's younger generation- unprecedented in American history and since the settling of the American continent since 1600. Fentanyl smuggling into the US from Mexico is the biggest issue facing the US along with closing the US Border. This report in the WSJ says Sheinbaum tried to deflect 25% tariffs by making the offer of sending 10,000 troops to the US Border. This was similar to her predecessor saying he would send 28,000 troops to the Guatemala Mexico border to stop migrants. DJT raised the issue. The week before the Feburary 3, 2025 call between Sheinbaum and DJT the White House said Mexican drug-trafficking organizations “have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico.” These are aspects of the problem that the White House needs addressed in effective ways to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. Action from the first term of DJT has not solved the problem so that DJT will have to find real effective solutions. The Canadian government followed its own approach. It set $140 million for a new unit to gather intelligence on organized crime. And appointed a head for an organization on stopping fentanyl from entering the US. Canadian PM Trudeau followed the US and DJT in labelling the Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. Issues the US faces with Mexico that remain unresolved are the $150 billion deficit and bringing home US manufacturing in the auto industry back to the US.   ...

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US Trade Representative Lighthizer in the Report on China's Entry into WTO sees this as a mistake in the policy of president Clinton. Clinton has said that was a mistake. David Sacks raised this issue in a podcast with Larry Summers, an economist who was deputy to Robert Rubin and Deputy Treasury Secretary, then Treasury Secretary succeeding Rubin in 1999. Clinton on the advice of Rubin and Summers set up the framework for China to join the World Trade Organization without the safeguards and the setup that would prevent it using state capitalism and subisidies to build its own economy with exports, to ally with American corporations to support the outshoring of almost the entire industrial base of the US. Shocking as it sounds this has happened, had happened by 2016, when Donald Trump with the advice of USTR Lighthizer took the first steps to reverse this with Tariff policy, which was supported by president Biden, and continues in its new phase under DJT in 2025. Rubin and Summers had supported deregulation of financial markets and removal of the Glass Steagall Act by 1999. This was to led to the financial crisis of 2009 that was to be one of three body blows to the American working and middle class. The others China entering WTO without safeguards that led to deindustrializing US and loss of its manufacturing base, loss of 5 million jobs, tens of thousands of factories. And the third was the pandemic. “ . . .it seems clear that the United States erred in supporting China’s entry into the WTO on terms that have proven to be ineffective in securing China’s embrace of an open, market-oriented trade regime” 2017 USTR Report to Congress on China’s WTO ...

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Poland and the USA agree on the stationing of missile defenses in Poland by 2012. An American Patriot battery would be transferred from Germany to Poland and operated by a crew of about 100 military personnel.

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Changing bank loan payments from 36 to 72 or 82 payments and bank's confidence to make new credit available at interest rates of abot 12% has created a boom in auto sales with 2.46 million cars sold in 2007, according to the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, and car factories operating at near or full capacity. GM showed improved results last quarter largely on the basis of its Brazilian operations profits. Inflation at yearend 2007 was 4.5% and Brazil is experiencing a boom based on its commodity exports of iron ore, and other commodities. Foreign investment doubled last year to $34.6 billion, much of it going into the stock market, and the Brazilian currency is strong. And the Lula administration has also put money int he hand os the poor in Brazil so that the boom is more equally shared. The increase in availability of credit is in high double digits for everything from cars, and homes to consumer items like washing machines and televisions, because its starting from a low base as is true of most of Latin America where because of high inflation and interest rates banks were reluctant to lend and borrowers could not afford the high interest rates. Now home mortgages are available for 12% and car loans for 14%, still high but much better by Brazilian standards with extended payment terms. About 20 million more people are able to buy on credit with this new availability of credit according to Mr. Ferreira, President of the National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions. If interest rates drop further this boom will get new momentum as even more people will be attracted to buying on credit. The volume of outstanding credit in Brazil in February was 35% of GDP, the is compares to eurozone numbers of 116% for domestic credit to the private sector according to the World Bank figures for 2006, and 201% in the USA and 419% in Japan. Mr. Ferreira predicts that the proportion of personal debt to GDP would rise from 38% to 40% this year and increase by 3% each year to 2013....

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European governments efforts to retain jobs by helping subsidize jobs at companies, reduce payroll costs, and encouraging shorter weeks, and in anumber of ways encouraging social cohesion through job retention, is helping to reduce joblessness in Europe. By contrast American approaches are more muddled. No effort is made to encourage job retention through these kinds of efforts by the government. As aresult American unemployment may soon approach 11% in 2010.

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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BBC environmental correspondent points out that the climate change executive order from U.S. president Trump reversing Obama's clean energy policies is designed to change the narrative to job creation. This follows approval for building the Keystone pipeline from Canada to bring oil from oil sands production to the U.S. The pipeline was also presented as a job creation effort. Environmental groups oppose the president's action. Court action and challenges are seen as helping Republican policy of delaying implementation of Clean Power Plan policy setup to control carbon dioxide emissions under the Obama administration. 

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Seven leaders who are being awarded the 2011 Top American Leader Awards of the Washington Post and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard- Sheila Bair, Chris Christie, Jared Cohen, Freeman Hrabowski, Michael Kaiser, Nicholas Kristof, Ahmed Zewail.

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David Malpass is the choice of the Trump administration to head the World Bank. He has worked with Latin American countries at the State Department, was the Treasury official responsible for the World Bank in the Reagan administration, and worked on Argentine currency, China trade matters in the Trump administration.

Malpass negotiated a $13 billion replenishment for the World Bank in 2017, with U.S. share of $1.2 billion. This capped the bank's lending at $25 billion.

Last year the World Bank provided China with $60.5 billion in loans for 400 projects, which this WSJ editorial says is loans China does not need with its $3.07 trillion in foreign reserves. This editorial is critical of the current World Bank head Dr. Kim for taking a job with a World Bank partner the private equity fund GIP.

The World Bank has played a significant role in development for South Asia and China in the early years after World War II.

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ Editorial Board says even if a Republican is elected president it would be a question of 4 more years of what? The big problem today he says is the small number of legislators in the US House of Representatives, about 20 in the Freedom Caucus, that are opposed to the government operating unless they get their way. The result is that independent Speakers of the Republican controlled House, with Republicans having a slim majority, are unable to get elected, and the Speaker elected is a relative newcomer Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who entered Congress as recently as 2017. The new Speaker has said the legislation passed by a bipartisan group of Senators in the US Senate 70-30 for aid to Ukraine is "dead on arrival." Result an impasse with some saying this is the most ineffective Congress ever. In this situation if a Republican is elected president says Henninger he can do little because a loss of even one legislative branch to Democrats the House or the Senate would leave America where it started- in an impasse for 2024-2028. For this reason he says even though Mr. Trump said he would do great things there was little he could point to in his vision for the future, and little he could do just by signing executive orders that would later be reversed.  ...

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A new survey of senior lending officers of 45 emerging market banks by the Institute of International Finance is similiar to surveys done by central banks in U.S., Europe and Japan. The IIF is an asssociation of large global banks. The IIF's chief economist says the survey shows strong demand for loans in these countries. Emerging market banks are becoming cautious, but its difficult considering the strong demand for loans. In China and Brazil, banking authorites are trying to cool the huge increase in loans as asset bubbles are developing. The IIF's first survey shows strong demand for loans aross the board, especially in Brazil. Similiar information from Turkey shows strong loan demand. An index of loan demand for consumer loans in emerging markets- with a score of 50 indicating expansion of loan demand and below 50 contracting loan demand- is at 64.1. Similiar indexes for the U.S. are at 50.1, for Europe 49.8, Japan 48.5, according to the recent surveys by central banks. While 56% of emerging market banks say corporate loan demand has grown in the 1st quarter 2011- the similiar number for the U.S. is 35% in the Fed survey, and 28% for Europe in the ECB survey. The IIF survey looked at the bank's lending practices and found banks in emerging Asia were tightening standards while banks in Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East were lowering the standards. 25% of emerging market banks tightened corporate lending standards, 16% relaxed standards, and the remainder left things as they were. A similiar Fed survey for the U.S. showed no banks tightening corporate lending standards, and 16% relaxing standards. And an ECB survey shows more banks tightening standards than relaxing them....

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To the other reasons, callousness on social issues and towards women and immigrants, Rove adds additional ones. The lower voter turnout with ony 51.3% of voters turning out to vote in the 2012 U.S. presidential election, the poor timing of the convention when it should have been held in June, the lack of response to an ad blitz with negativity throughout the late summer that Romney lacked funds to respond to. He points to the role of the Super PAC's and the American Crossroads organization he created in preventing the Republican candidate from being strangled by a single ad blitz in the summer that spent 20% of election campaign funds of the Obama campaign.

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Telefonica offers part of its dividend in shares to conserve cash and considers IPO listings for operations in Germany and Latin America. Earnings decline by 54% in the first quarter of 2012. Shares have lost over 30% in 2012. Net debt is 57 billion euros, larger than its market capitalization and forecast at 2.7 times Ebitda. JP Morgan estimates show that sale of call center Atento for 1 billion euros, and stakes in in China Unicom and O2 in the Czech Republic could bring an additional 6 billion euros, which would bring debt down to 2 times Ebitda.

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The 2016 Republican platform is written to express the ideas in the Republican Party for family values, child rearing using the Bible and traditional values, calling pornography a "public health crisis."  The Family Research Council and tradition or family focussed groups played an important role in writing it, with Mr. Trump playing less of a role. Instead of "physical barrier" with Mexico, it says "a wall"  should be built in a taking up Trump's idea, but in general it is a clear expressing of traditional family values that Republicans have supported for years and expressed frustration with the movement of social lives in an opposite direction. The same sex marraige decision by the Supreme Court and transgender debate were not present in 2012 election, so in that sense the Republicans see the country as moving in a different direction. More of the pendulum having swung too far in another direction is how Republicans perceive it, and their response is to go back to how things used to be and the world they knew, based on what they see as positive outcomes for the whole of society. Hence language that encourages teaching of the Bible in public schools, condemning pornography as a menace particularly for children, and insisting on "man made laws being consistent with God given natural rights." A good understanding of the Bible is considered "indispensable for the development of an educated citizenry."   Amendments opposing gay and transgender are being added. ...

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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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Recruiting in the Afghan army from predominantly Pastun areas in the south and southeast is way down, almost nonexistent. For Kandahar, Helmand, Oruzgan, Zabul, Paktika, and Ghazni provinves with largely Pashtun people, the numbers show they make up 17% of the population and contributed only 1.5% of new recruits to the army since 2009. Kandahar and Helmand with 2 millon people contributed about 1200 recruits, or less 1% of 173,000 new recrutis since 2009. The northern provinces make up a large number of the new recruits, with Kunduz having a population of 900,000 and contributing 16,500 recruits. There are about 42% Pastuns in the population and a similiar number of Pastuns in the Afghan army, but most are from the northern or northeastern provinces where the insurgency has been weaker. One third are from one northeastern province- Nangarhar. The reason for this is fear of the Taliban finding out that that a young man has enlisted in the south and retaliation against the enlistee or his family. The lack of a southern Pastun presence in the army makes the army more of a northern institution. With withdrawal of American and NATO forces by 2014, this leaves Afghanistan deeply divided between the northern and southern regions. The southern region Pastuns have a significant presence across the border in the northern part of Pakistan, and the southern Pastuns draw support and resources from this region. Removing the foreign presence shifts the balance towards the southern Pastuns and Pakistani Pastuns in the largely mountainous country of this region. This is why the project in Afghanistan requires the support of all factions and ethnic communities in the South Asian region to succeed, setting aside differences and animosities of the past. D. Mahmood Khan, a member of parliament in Kandahar says ordinary Afghans in Kandahar see the Afghan government of Karzai collapsing in a week or two without foreign support and sense a much stronger Taliban....

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Lenovo's efforts to increase sales in India and Brazil. Lenovo is the largest PC company in India with 15.8% market share in the first quarter of 2012. It has only 3.6% market share in Brazil and is planning to increase its market share in the Brazilian market. Its market share in China is 30%. Slowing sales in China is increasing the focus on growth in Latin America. Lenovo's head of Asia-Pacific and Latin America, Milko van Duijl says Lenovo will have to build a manufacturing presence in Brazil to be successful there. Lenovo is now the second largest in PC sales worldwide after H-P.

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John Wojick of Boeing, John Leahy of Airbus, and the fierce competition for orders from customers at ANA, JAL, Lufthansa, American. JAL's decision to inclde Airbus in its orders with its order for 31 wide body A350's for $9.5 billion, was a disappointment for Wojick, who heads Boeing sales group. Wojick has focussed on protecting customer interests inside Boeing as the Dreamliner and other projects suffered manufacturing delays and safety issues. He has offered deeper discounts on planes and flexibility on delivery timing to defend Boeing's sales.

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The "negative Tier 1 capital" at Deutsche Bank's U.S. bank holding company Taunus Corp. of negative 7.58% cited by FDIC chairman Sheila Bair. Parent Deutsche Bank has total equity lower than U.S. banks Citicorp, Chase and Bank of America, with total equity equivalent to 4.4% of assets using a U.S. style approach says Eavis, making the Bair criticism relevant and timely in 2010.

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Oil prices are up and staying there longer in December 2011. The 12 month rolling average for oil prices for Brent crude oil is at $109, compared to $106 a barrel in September 2008, according to consultants JBC Energy. The situation is worse for eurozone countries because of the declining value of the euro estimated at between $1.16-$1.30 in 2012 depending on how the eurozone crisis is handled. The 12 month rolling average was 70 euros when Brent crude prices were at their high in 2008, compared to 78 euros today. France and Italy are seeing their current account surplus disappear with reduced exports and higher import bill for oil.

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On Facebook "Back the Badge" targeted at wives of police officers remembering killed police officers was seen 1.3 million times. Another ad "Woke Blacks" for Afro-American culture targeted at the civil rights movement was seen 750,000 times.These and other ads on Twitter were cited in Congressional investigations in the U.S., as ads paid for in rubles and conducted by Russian internet agencies. Facebook, Google, Instagram and Twitter managers answered questions in Congress about the ads during the U.S. presidential election of 2016.