LyrArc Article Gist
Bob Dylan is the first American to win the Nobel Prize for Literature since Toni Morrison in 1992.  This is the first time it is awarded to a musician. The award was given for "new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition." Born as Albert Zimmerman in Minnesota in 1941, Dylan took the name of the Welsh poet Dylan Thomas for his musical career. In announcing the prize Sara Danius of the Nobel Prize Academy said Dylan wrote "poetry for the eyes," citing his album "Blonde on Blonde." Best known are his songs "Blowin' in the Wind" ans "The Times They Are A-Changin," songs that in the sixties reflected the mood of America towards civil rights for black people and against the war in Vietnam. This article by DW.com is exceptional in the way it gives an account of past Nobel Prize winners in literature and what they brought to readers in the way of resurrecting humanity in their own way and from their own experiences in different cultures and periods- 2015 Svetlana Calling of Belarus  and Herta Muller of German-Romanian background on the situation in their countries in the Soviet period, Clezio in 2008 of French Mauritius background on the cultures beneath "the reigning civilization or indigenous cultures of Africa and Latin America, and Orhan Pamuk on his native city in Turkey and the clash of cultures modern and old, in 2010, Vargas Llosa on cultures of Latin America of power and individual resistance, and 2012 Yan Moye of telling stories of today's China through folk tales. The common theme is the struggle between the individual trying to find hope, humanity, in the midst of political and cultural forces that he finds himself caught up in. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Connors and Magalhaes provide an exceptional account of the work of nine young prosecutors in Brazil, including Deltan Dallagnol, a Harvard trained law graduate, Carlos Santos Lima, a Cornell law graduate, and Paulo de Carvalho, in looking into the corruption and money laundering at Petrobras. Contracts for work given out by Petrobras to construction firms were inflated in value, and 3% of the inflated value was given to executives at Petrobras, or to the fund of the ruling Workers Party of Brazil. Dallagnol is a prosecutor in Curitiba, a small provincial city. He detected unusual movement of money, where a local car wash showed a new Land Rover being gifted to a Petrobras executive, in an apparent money laundering effort. Appointments at high levels are made by the government, and the current president who has not been implicated, was at one time chairman of Petrobras. In Brazil, as in India, Nigeria, and other developing countries, politicians were known to have misused public funds, but were able to act with impunity because the legal system made it difficult to impose strict penalties. The effort by the young prosecutors in Brazil is an effort to bring changes to the legal system so that this type of near impunity no longer exists. It is the first step to bringing serious changes and increasing public awareness for change. The result in Nigeria is a huge loss in Africa, with the electricity system for the entire country the size of what it would take to light up one medium sized American city. In India with the lack of roads and electricity in rural areas of many states, the misuse of public funds is a similiar burden on the people. Brazil is coming out of a borrowing binge in the last ten years which is leading to a credit crunch in the country and near junk bond status for Petrobras, Brazil's largest company, which experts predict will lead to a contraction in the economy in 2015-2016. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It seems like good common sense -surely studies come later that masks can cut coronavirus cases by 40%- as Texas is learning the hard way. As coronavirus cases jump in Texas the governor makes wearing face coverings or masks mandatory in the state. Texas recorded over 8000 cases in a single day on July 3, 2020. "wearing a face covering will help us to keep Texas open for business." As a grim warning to Texans he said "we are now at a point where the virus is spreading so fast there is little margin for error." As the virus cases surged Mr. Abbott, the governor of Texas, ordered all bars shut and cut restaurant capacity by 75% last week and reversed step taken to open the economy. Another lesson learned the hard way when it seems like common sense- consider that on June 20 as reported in the WSJ a staggering 500,000 people went to bars in Los Angeles county the day after bars reopened. It is this type of activity that makes Dr. Fauci, say cases could reach 100,000 a day in the U.S. Infection rates are now increasing in 40 of 50 states with the southern states, western states doing badly.  A lot of it was plain common sense. A German study shows a 40% reduction of coronavirus cases when masks or face coverings are worn. For those arguing for the reopening so that economic hurt is mitigated there is even more reason to wear masks as it makes it possible to get back to work by following strict social distancing and mask guidelines. Everything in life is about adapting and making small changes for the larger good. Younger people have badly failed to show fellow feeling with lack of following social distancing guidelines on beaches and gatherings leading to the numbers now showing that people 18-34 are now equally at risk. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's energy efficient industry is a role model for the western world and for India and China. For years Japan has had a national consensus on consuming less energy an industry has focused on developing energy efficent technologies and investing in it even when oil prices were low. Japan wants to now contribute to the world in this area at the G8 summit on the island of Hokkaido. According to the International Energy Agency in Paris, Japan consumes half as much energy per dollar worth of economic activity as the European Union or the United States, and one-eighth as much as India or China in 2005. According to the Japanese Economic Ministry data corporate Japan has kept its energy consumption annually at a billion barrels of oil since the early 1970's even as the country's economy doubled in size during the 1970's and 1980's. The Japanese steel industry invested $45 billion dollars between 1972 to 2006 in developing energy saving technologies, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. By capturing heat and gases that go into waste JFE Steel at its Keihin mill on Tokyo Bay uses it to power generators that produce 90% of the plant's electricity. The Japanese government is now pushing an initiative that sets Japan's level of energy conservation as targets of global industries. For instance the group leader of JFE's climate change policy group says that by adopting Japanese conservation technologies the global steel industry could reduce carbon emissions by 300 million tons a year. The sector approach advocated by Japan means setting the same numerical goals for all companies in an industry, regardless of location. At next week's summit meeting Japan willl back an initiative that sets its conservation induced energy levels as the new standards for global industries. This will also promote the sale and use of Japanese energy saving technologies around the world....

LyrArc Article Gist
Stephen Lind describes how the television special "Charlie Brown Christmas" was made in 1963. Over 50 years later it is just as popular. It started as a television show for Coca Cola, developed by cartoonist Charles Schulz of "Peanuts," Mr. Mendelson, and director Bill Melendez. Children are used for the character voices, it includes a choir from a local church, and Schulz insisted on Linus reciting a passage from the Gospel of St. Luke. In 2015 seven million viewers watched the first of the 2 broadcasts. In 1963 CBS and Coca Cola were skeptical about the show being popular and uneasy about the religious passage. Viewers were touched by the simple story and the struggles of a lonely kid trying to find the meaning of the season. Schulz is reported to have told the skeptical folks at CBS and his creative partners about reading aloud from St Luke, that if they didn't do it, who could be expected to do it.

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Coy of Bloomberg Business Week points out that the debt ceiling and proposed deficit reductions in the range of $4 trillion really obscure the real size of the problem which is much larger. The real problems hit when the U.S. faces a larger graying population by 2020 with sharply higher per capita health care spending; and at the same time workers from this generation retire and become beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare with fewer younger workers to support the system with tax revenues. Another problem is that older Americans are likely as a voting bloc to vote themselves benefits that will cost the younger generation, benefits that the younger generation will not be able to enjoy. Even the Paul Ryan plan with its cuts to Medicare insulated todays seniors from the sharp cuts, as it becomes political necessity for both Republicans and Democrats to shy away from touching the current beneficiaries.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Agriculture Department cuts its estimate of corn crop yield per acre in the U.S. by 15.5%, as a result of the severe drought in 2012. Agriculture Secretary Vilsack, says the situation for farmers is better this time than during the last drought in 1988. Now 85% of farmers have crop insurance compared to 25% in 1988. The Agriculture Department estimate is for a 3-4% increase in prices in 2013. Capital Economics says the impact on GDP in the U.S. will be about 0.1%. Because 40% of the corn crop goes into ethanol production there is renewed debate about the 2005/2007 Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires 13.2 billion gallons of corn based biofuel be made in 2012. Worldwide the bad weather conditions in Brazil, India and Russia are worsening the outlook for food supplies. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says global food prices increased by 6% in July 2012, with corn prices up 23%.

LyrArc Article Gist
CEO Shigetaka Komori of Fujifilm Holdings Corp. describes how Fuji responded to the technological changes that made photographic film obsolete. Kodak recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Fuji made the transition to other products to cope with the change. Komori became president in 2000. He says one of the responses was to reduce costs. In 2005 and 2006 Fujifilm reduced costs by $2.5 billion mostly in photographic film. Fuji's management asked the question what technologies the company possessed and how they could be applied in new business areas. This led to new businesses in making the films used for making LCD panels used on PC's, televisions and other devices. These materials generate 10% of sales. The other areas are in medical equipment, drugs and cosmetics. Fujifilm acquired health care companies Toyama Chemical for $1.4 billion in 2008 and agreed to buy SonoSite for $995 in Jan. 2012. Health care now makes up 12% of sales.

LyrArc Article Gist
Illinois uses a discount rate of about 8% for its pension liabilities. This makes them look smaller than they really are. The 8% represents expected return on assets. Illinois's five pension pllans assume returns ranging from 7% to 8.5%, yet their average 10 year returns ranged from 2.4% to 3.6%. The Netherlands uses a discount rate equal to government borrowing rates, which would be 4% for the U.S. And Dutch plans have to be fully funded or take steps to make up the difference. Illinois will have its plans 90% funded by fiscal 2045. Canada uses a government return adjusted for inflation and an additional premium, which is about 6%. The Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan for instance uses a discount rate of 5.4% and is about 85% funded. The Ontario plan's CEO, Jim Leech, says his fund would be 200% funded if it used the Illinois approach. Which raises the question is the Illinois approach realistic and isn't the best approach to be realistic about the finances.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lower prices have boosted unit sales for Microsoft and Autodesk for Chinese operations. Autodesk now sells its software for about half the price in the USA. Autodesk saw a doubling of licenses in China to 300,000 after slashing prices. Microsoft sells Windows 7 Home Basic for 399 yuan or $59, a third of the price in the USA. By reducing margins, Microsoft makes up for it in volumes, says Microsoft's China CEO. IDC and Business Software Alliance estimate that 79% of the PC software installed in China in 2009 was pirated, down from 86% in 2005. Lower prices make Chinese buyers more willing to invest, and education helps to increase the value of using legitimate copies. China's PC market is expected to be 67 million units in 2010, behind 78 million in the USA, but software sales in China are only $5.8 billion, behind the US sales of $143.6 billion. This makes the potential for software sales large at the right prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
From the 1950's to the 1980''s profits earned by financial firms excluding insurance and real estate accounted for 10% of total US profits. This grew to 22% by the 1990's and jumped to 34% from 2001 to 2005. A financial sector of this size becomes a danger for the US economy, especially with overleveraging, high-frequency trading, excessive risk-taking and other practices common before the crisis of 2008. It also does not add to the productive strength of the US economy, and diverts human and capital resources that can be productively used elsewhere in the US economy. A large sector also creates its own self-perpetuation mechanisms such as efforts to dilute or reduce the regulation needed for it to function safely and productively. By diminishing the power of the legislative and executive branches of the US government to regulate this sector, it also reduces public confidence in government.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Rivlin-Domenici Deficit Report recommends freezing US defense spending from 2012 to 2016 at its current level of over $700 billion a year. This means the Defense department budget would not be adjusted for inflation, and the military would not have the $431 billon in additional spending that the Congressional Budget Office had projected. By contrast Defense Secretary Gates has sought to keep the Defense departmet budget growing at 1% a year after inflation, plus the costs of the war in Afghanistan. And the Bowles -Simpson Deficit Commisssion chairmen have recommended $100 billion in savings by 2015 be used to reduce the deficit. The way Gates sees it the savings of 2-3% annually in department contracts would be used for other military purposes. Rivlin-Domenici and Bowles-Simpson do not see it that way, they want to use the money for deficit reduction and improving the economic prospects for the US.

LyrArc Article Gist
Experts say Chief Justice Roberts somehow found a path through in bridging the ideological divide and avoiding a show of partisanship in an election year. He somehow navigated and found a path through in his vote on the U.S. healthcare law letting it stand. Early on Roberts advocated "judicial modesty and humility" in jurisprudence. He compared the judge's role to that of an umpire in baseball during the 2005 confirmation hearings. The umpire would not pitch or bat, his job would be to call balls and strikes. It was seen as a determmined show of independence at a time when Justice Kennedy was seen as the swing vote. He has also earned political capital to be able to vote independently on other issues before the court instead of becoming embroiled in controversy about the role of the Court in overturning the work of Congress during the early part of the Obama administration.

LyrArc Article Gist
Signs that Turkey's economy is growing and consuming beyond its capacity. The current account deficit is now at 8%, and foreign credit is helping finance the boom. General purpose consumer loans are growing rapidly- at 42% in 2010, and at 61% on average from 2005 to 2008- according to Standard Unlu, an Istanbul based investment bank. Banks are known to send text messages to borrowers if they qualify, so that the money can be picked up at the bank branch. Turkey has gone through two boom bust cycles- in 1994 and in 2001. The central bank of Turkey has increased the level of interest free deposits banks must keep at the central bank, a move designed to reduce lending. However Turkey's younger generation of consumers are on a spending binge, and access to personal loans is easy. Signs of an asset bubble are easy to find. A 24 acre plot in Istanbul's city center sold for $33.3 million.

LyrArc Article Gist
Simon Nixon looks at the different scenarios for Greece as it faces snap elections on Jan. 25, 2015. He makes the point that unlike the situation in 2012 Greece's debt after considerable adjustment with creditors now looks sustainable. The nominal debt to GDP ratio remains high at over 170%, yet says Nixon, the long term average interest cost is about 2.3%. He even cites hedge fund Japonica Partners analysis showing Greece's debts valued on a discounted cash flow basis under international public accounting standards at a debt to GDP ratio of about 18%. Alexis Tsipras's left coalition if elected is likely to moderate its demands and continue with EU programs for Greece to restore confidence in financial markets and lower the interest rates on debt- including removal of special tax treatment exemptions and pension reforms. Support for EU membership remains high in Greece and Tsipras is likely to change his program to adapt just as Samaras and New Democracy Party did when it was elected....

LyrArc Article Gist
The fiscal 2016 U.S. budget of president Obama proposes government spending at 7% or $74 billion above the caps set in a bipartisan deficit reduction deal reached in 2011. It proposes $561 billion in defense spending with an increase of $38 billion, and $530 billion in non defense spending with an increase of $37 billion. Across the board cuts known as the sequester were set in 2013 following a 2011 bipartisan budget deal plan to take $2 trillion out of the federal budget deficit over 10 years. Spending caps were set at the time and a supercommitte was setup to look for ways to trim $1.2 trillion from the federal budget. With the failure of the supercommittee the sequester went into effect until Sen. Murray (Democrat) and Sen Paul Ryan (Republican ) agreed to ease cuts through fiscal year 2015 ending in September. The Democratic president's effort is to remove the caps in 2016 to invest more in infrastructure, medical research, other strategic priorities and defense.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve begins to scale back its quantitiative easing stimulus for the economy in December 2013. Ben Bernanke announced the Fed will cut back on purchases of Treasury and mortgage backed securities from $85 billion to $75 billion in January 2014, and gradually taper the purchases down to zero by the end of 2014. The Fed will also strengthen its plan to hold short term interest rates near zero to provide additional support because of weakness in the economy. This sets out a plan for the next two years with the first increases for short term interest rates not till near the end of 2015. This removes uncertainty in the economy and the stock market responded with a 1.7% increase after the announcement by the Fed fllowing a 2 day meeting. The Fed's announcement coincided with the Senate passing the Ryan-Murray compromise bill that provides an agreement between Republicans and Democrats on the budget, removing risks of a debt limit standoff in 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
France's finance minister says the government will focus on growth and set deficit targets that will support growth. There is a feeling in the business community that France has reached the limit for tax increases. The government has given up the goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013. The government says the deficit will be about 4.1% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014. Economic growth is expected to be only about 0.1% for 2013, and 0.9% for 2014, lower than earlier forecasts. Muscovici has said the French are fed up with higher taxes, and he is looking for savings in spending. About 15 billion euros of savings are planned in the 2014 budget from ministry expenses and healthcare spending. Extra taxes of 6 billion euros planned for the 2014 budget will now be cut to 3 billion euros. To increase growth it is necessary to stabilize taxation and give business a clear picture for 2014-2015.

LyrArc Article Gist
The climate change bill that passed the House 219 to 212. When the program begins in 2012 the estimated prie of apermit to emit aton of carbon dioxide will be about $13. This is projected to rise steadily as emission limits come down, but there is aprovision to prevent a surge in costs. In the early years of the program amajority of permits will be given out free to keep costs down. The Congressional Budget Office estimate is that an average American household will pay $175 ayear more in energy costs by 2020 as aresult of this bill, while the poorst households will recveive a rebate to lower their energy costs by $40. WHile the bill has been watered down form its original, the fact remains that this is the first climate change bill America has passed in decades. It is welcomed by Chancellor Merkel and the Germans who want to see the USA as akey negotiator in future talk on global warming.

LyrArc Article Gist
A $100 billion infrastructure project to create a high tech manufacturing and freight corridor between New Delhi and Mumbai with a third of the money coming from Japanese public and private money will be announced this week during Japanese Prime Minister Abe's visit to India this week. Japanese investment in India is expected to rise from $515 million in 2006 to $5.5 billion in 2011. Lack of infrastructure has been a key constraint to investment in Indian manufacturing and this project hopes to address this problem. This would include airports, ports, and a high speed freignt line for the 1500 kilometres between New Delhi and Mumbai. CEO's from companies such as Toyota, Mitsubishi, Canon, Hitachi have joine a new Japan-India business leader forum. Toyota plans to increase manufacturing capacity to 600,000 in India by 2015. Japan played a major role in the rapid modernization of Korea, China, and now is likely to do so in India as well.

LyrArc Article Gist
How brokers could earn a "yield spread premium" which could amount to $8000 on a 400,000 loan, or 2% of the loan amount, i f the borrower's interest rate was an extra 1.25% higher than lender's listed rates. These yield spread premiums encouraged brokers to push borrowers into more expensive loans. A study done for the Wall Streeet Journal has shown that borrowers with credit scores above 620 who would be able to get a conventional loan were a large part of the subprime borrowers since 2000. In 2005 borrowers with such credit scores got 55% of all subprime mortgages, with this rising higher to 61% in 2006. In 2000 that figure was 41% according to this study. A sizable number of people with top notch credit signed up for expensive subprime loans. The analysis looked at $2.5 trillion mortgage loans since 2000. The study was done by a San Francisco research firm, First American LoanPerformance.

LyrArc Article Gist
Important research presented by experts from University of Chicago, Princeton university Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, presented at a forum in New York on the Federal Reserve organized by the University of chicago and Brandeis University. The presentation indicates that there will be amagnified effect of the current credit crisis once you take into account the accounting rules to use market prices and the risk practices of financial institutions that lead to adding to reserves. They calculate that leveraged institutions like banks, thrifts and securtities dealers will want to boost their capital to asset ratios by 5% because of the increased risk. Even after raising $100 billion in new capital (such as the money raised from sovereign funds) these institutions will still try to shrink their assets of about $20.5 trillion by about $2 trillion. The impact of this would be to restrict lending in a magnified effect and could cost the economy about 1.5% points in growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
Honda's market share slipped from 11% in 2009 to 9% in 2011 in the U.S. after the tsunami and earthquake led to shortages of cars. Sales are expected to be 50% higher in May 2012, as inventory shortages are reduced, according to Edmunds.com. With increased competition, and new models such as the Crosstour Accord in 2009, CR-Z hybrid coupe, Insight hybrid in 2010 failing to catch on, Honda is increasingly falling back on its best selling Accord, Civic, and CRV sport utility vehicles for increasing sales. The Ridgeline pickup truck introduced in 2005 may be discontinued. The Honda Fit subcompact sales declined by 61% in April 2012 from the prior year. Fiat and Kia small vehicles have increased sales compared to the Fit. The Fit is manufactured in Japan and the strengthening yen makes it unprofitable. A cost competitive Fit will be made in Mexico starting in 2014. Honda's strong point is its higher customer retention rate of 60%, second to Hyundai's 64% repeater ratio, according to January 2012 survey of J.D. Power. Honda normally relies on the U.S. market for over half its operating income, and for the year ending March 31, 2012 most of the operating income, 223 billion of 231 billion yen, was from the U.S., which gives some idea of how much rests on the U.S. market. For now Honda is using incentives to recover market share at the expense of operating profit. During the last fiscal year Honda's operating profits declined to 2.9% of sales. Honda's goal is to move this up to 6% in the coming fical year, still short of the 9% in 2002, and between Nissan's estimated 4.5% and Toyota's 6.8% in the coming year. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Private companies such as Reliance Power and Tata Power control only 27% of India's power generating capacity of 205 gigwatts. The government controls most of the capacity in this sector for generation and transmission of power and has failed to invest enough to keep up with growing needs. The government has failed to achieve even modest expansion goals for power generation. A target of 78.7 gigawatts of additions to the national grid were planned for the five year period ending March 31, 2012, but only 70% of that target has been met. China during the same five year period added 418 gigawatts. State utilities sell power at discounted rates resulting in large losses, making it difficult to invest in upgrades in transmission technology and facilities. Rate regulations make it unattractive for private investors. Another problem is the shortage of coal, with coal production concentrated in one state owned firm Coal India that has failed to invest in new technology and improvements. The result is the kind of massive outages from overload of the national power grid in July 2012, affecting most of northern and eastern India....

LyrArc Article Gist
After the Phase 1 trade deal with China led to cancellation of new tariffs on computers, mobile phones and the remaining products imported from China, tariffs are still in place on $370 billion of imports from China. President Trump says China agreed to import $32 billion of agricultural goods, with the figures reaching $50 billion in 2020. The prior high was $26 billion in 2012. This comes as a big relief for the agricultural farm sector which had 24% more bankruptcies in 2019. Farmers are now more likely to vote for president Trump as they did in the last election. In addition China agreed to buy $200 billion more of American goods over the next 2 years. This combined with the USMCA agreement to replace NAFTA, for North American trade, is good news for president Trump and for the U.S. economy for 2% annual growth. The S&P stock index went up by 29% in 2019. The big concession by China is its agreement to agree to penalties if it does not keep up its part of the bargain.  Intellectual property protection remains a challenge and Mr. Trump may have decided to take a tactical success and shore up his base of farmers and small business people before taking up these issues in the future. China for its part may have decided to make a tactical move of its own as it has nothing to lose in importing more farm products from the U.S. in exchange for being able to continue to make the computers, iPhones and tech products it manufactures, just like before. China has not conceded much in terms of its goals set  in "Made in China 2025." Both sides are taking a much needed pause to consolidate their positions, as the fundamental differences remain to be tackled. Huawei and Chinese technology issue remains as before with the U.S. wary of China's technological gains in 5G telecom equipment and keen on building and protecting America's technological advantage in future trade relations. ...