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As the federal revenues rise to about 18.1% of GDP (close to historical rates after return to growth) and outlays to offset the effects of the 2008 recession diminishing, the deficit is forecast to drop to 3% of GDP in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, close to the average for the last 40 years. The deficit is estimated to be total $514 billion for fiscal year 2014, declining from $1.4 trillion in 2009. Real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation) of 3% is forecast for 2014-2017. In 2018 and the years to 2024 the deficit will increase because the pace of growth slows, and spending will increase- slower growth of the labor force as the population ages, increasing health care costs, subsidies for health care, and increasing cost to service debt. Outlays other than for health care, Social Security and interest payments on debt for year 2016-2024, are set to be the lowest percentage of GDP since 1940, according to the CBO report in 2014. Debt will increase to 79% of GDP by 2024 from an estimate of 74% for 2014. CBO projects unemployment only slowly decreasing, remaining above 6% till late 2016, with the rate of participation in the labor force- lower now because many people have opted to not look for work discouraged by the job prospects- slow to recover....

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UN sponsored talks taking place to let shipments of Ukraine grain to leave Black Sea ports. The way this would be done is by arranging a safe passage along a pathway that would be cleared of mines for ships to get from Black Sea ports to safer waters. This would still take weeks for the work needed to make this happen. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Middle Eastern countries are heavily dependent on Ukrainian grain and warehouses in Ukraine need to be cleared for the coming harvest. The head of the UN Antonio Gutierrez and president Widodo of Indonesia had talks earlier with Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky to arrange this safe passage for ships in the Black Sea from Ukraine. This would also reduce tensions between Ukraine and Russia and start the process for an end to the war.

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The 7 Priorities listed in India's Budget for April 2023 to March 2024 provide a roadmap for the next 25 years to 2047 when India marks 100 years as an independent nation. These are-Inclusive Development Reaching the last mile, Infrastructure and investment, Unleashing the potential Green growth, Youth power, Financial sector

Reaching the last mile- Gandhi's idea- "Ask yourself if the step you contemplate is of any use to him or her (the poorest and weakest man or woman you have seen), will he or she gain anything by it? Will it restore to him (or her) control of their life and destiny."

A fund will be setup for Agri-startups. A National Digital Library will be set up for children and adolescents and States will be encouraged to setup physical libraries at panchayat and ward levels.

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In the first 6 months of 2020 about 21 million jobs were lost in the U.S., followed by a recovery following reopening with a third of the jobs regained by July 2020. Women and black people were disproportionately hit by job loss during the pandemic. Hispanics were hit the hardest but also recovered faster.

As the lockdowns dragged on in June, mental health, vaccinations  getting treatment for health conditions, and economic well being, became major objectives. This was accomplished through better incorporation of better practice such as social distancing and face coverings, ventilation, and healthy living practices including food, as more people went back to work. Bars and large gatherings remained a particularly vexing problem, with sports now being played in empty stadiums for television audiences. Offices were completely redesigned to be safe places for work and public transport featured empty seats.

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One of the great achievements of this century will go unreported in the media preoccupied with other things- the discovery of the Covid Pfizer vaccine by Turici and Sahin Turkish immigrants to Germany and their extraordinary courage recognized by being awarded Germany's National Prize by chancellor Merz. Germany's National Prize awarded to Ozlem Tureci and Ugur Sahin for BioNTech Covid Vaccine.  "You both embody the future strength of a liberal society. As scientists who seek solutions. But also as entrepreneurs for whom responsibility is at the center of their work." Merz says during the award ceremony in Berlin. The chancellor praised Türeci and Sahin, with their Turkish roots, giving examples of how "skilled labor immigration can be a driver of progress." "I want to live in a Germany in which talent is promoted to the best of our ability, regardless of social or ethnic background." ...

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The State Department concluded in its studies in August 2011 that the TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline can be operated without causing environmental damage, if operated under strict regulations. A round of public hearings organized by the State Department along the pipeline route from rural Montana to Nebraska and Texas has brought out both supporters and people fearing a spill. U.S. Senators in Nebraska have called for a rerouting out of concerns about the Ogallala Aquifier that lies under the Great Plains. Rural states like Montana see the jobs issue as crucial. Others including Debra Medina, a former candidate for Texas Governor, expressed fears at a rally in Austin that the property rights of landowners would not be respected.

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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

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This article in the Economist magazine says the initial criteria for the euro currency were fudged to let southern European countries with weak finances into the euro region. The result was that Italy, Spain and Portugal were allowed in, followed later by Greece. This was a critical design defect for the euro currency. It says French president Mitterand accepted German unification and German president Kohl gave up the Deutsche Mark in exchange for the Euro, under the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that set up the euro currency. The other flaw was the lack of a bail out mechanism if governments needed help, the ECB not designed to tackle this, and the central banks of each country not capable of tackling this on their own. With the lack of devaluation option to address inflation, and drop in competitiveness of some countries, the mechanisms to address economic problems were not put in place- it says because political union was seen as happening earlier but never happened. The French are seen as more interested in pursuing closer economic integration, with Germany not as keen until budget discipline is established first. Germany also looks at immigration as a critical area in which agreement has to be reached. As a result the euro currency is likely to continue with some of its current problems, yet with improvements in many areas such as budget discipline and lessons learned from the eurozone crisis in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.   ...

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The New York Times reports that comments from Obama administration officials describe an alarming loss of trust and confidence between China and the USA over the last two years. David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy program at George Washington University, says the administration had hoped to work with China on major challenges like climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and a new global economic order. China, he says, has failed to step up and play that role. He describes the Chinese as responding as an increasingly narrow-minded, self-interested truculent, hyper-nationalist, and powerful country. Jeffrey Baker, a key China policy adviser in the White House, says China's responses reflected a sense in Beijing that China was a rising power and the USA a declining power, especially after the strong rebound of the Chinese economy after the 2008 crisis. The administration is determined to counteract that impression. Other factors complicate things. China is facing a transition to a new leadership in the next year. There are differences within the Chinese Communist party leadership ranks about the direction China should take. Trade and currency issues have come to the point where American public opinion is shifting greatly, with educated professionals changing their views on trade and currency matters. See the recent WSJ/NBC September 2010 poll on world trade, reported by Murray and Belkin in WSJ, Oct 2, 2010. The Obama administration cannot ignore the deep concerns of the American people on these issues. The House overwhelmingly voted in September to threaten China with tariffs on its exports if the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not allowed to appreciate significantly enough (experts estimate that it is overvalued by 20%). It is not clear whether the Administration's rhetoric on this issue is to assuage public opinion in a business as usual manner, or expected to achieve substantative results to rebalance world trade. The G-20 summit in S. Korea leaves this change for well into the future- China with current account surplus of 5.8% of GDP in 2009 is expected to lower this to 4% by 2015. With the high jobless rate in the US and the large and rising current account deficit, the United States may have reached a juncture where this cannot be put off well into the future years. Other issues, the different foreign policy objectives, and differing perceptions of China and the US of each other, the relationship with US allies in the region, may create additional tensions. These tensions may be navigated by governments of both countries, but the shift in American public opinion on trade, currency and jobs issues will require tangible and real change. As trade tensions will only increase in the next two years with the lack of fiscal stimulus on the jobs front, and no significant change in jobs expected from the Fed's purchase af additional Treasury debt, and a sense that the mutual benefit in the trade relationship with China has been lost to America's serious detriment. China's position may be perceived as stronger than it really is from the faster rebound from the 2008 crisis, and may in reality not be as Jeffrey Baker sees it. As David Barboza has reported in the New York Times, and experts have pointed out, the huge amount of lending encouraged by the government has accentuated weaknesses in the Chinese economy. A significant amount has gone into real estate speculation and will only increase the bad loans on the books of China's banks. This happens at the very time that growth is expected to slow down and make it harder to absorb the bad loans, as was done in the past. ...

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As the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, pushes up interest rates in a period of high inflation its goal is to raise rates to "neutral" a rate which neither spurs growth or slows it, says this report in the WSJ. Only problem is that no one really knows what that interest rate is. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its meeting in May. And raise interest rates by another half point in June. Fed chairman Jerome Powell says of the policy "we are going to be raising rates and getting expeditiously to levels that are more neutral."

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Most of the early reporting on the 1MDB scandal and leakage of state funds was done by the WSJ. The final verdict of the Federal Court is shown here. The WSJ merits the gratitude of hundreds of millions of people in South Asia and South East Asia, in Africa and Latin America for its work on 1MDB, and shows at its heart America's people cares about their future. Malaysian government under Mahathir Mohammad revealed recently Malaysian debt was $251 billion or 1 trillion ringitt. How will this be repaid? The future of countries in Africa or Asia can be wiped out in this way with unsustainable debt through such leakage.

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Did you know 7% of all carbon emissions today come from cement production. In the cement production process 90% of the carbon emissions come from using fossil fuels to heat up the limestone and clay to 2700 degrees to produce clinker. Cemex is workoing with Swiss company Synhelion to use solar energy to do this by 20230.  Heidelberg Materials is working to  add carbon capture to the process at its Brevik, Norway plant, then store it in the seabed near Bergen in liquefied CO2 form. This will absorb the carbon emissions to meet a goal of 8% of carbon emissions to be stored globally by 2030. 

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NYT's Jeanna Smialek says there are lower inflation expectations with the Fed in the fight. This will help the economy in 2024, and help president Biden in managing the economy. Slower rent increases, and declining demand for housing, cars, with higher interest rates sharply increasing mortgage payments and car leases, is helping to slow inflation. Lower inflation expectations help because buyers are less willing to pay higher prices and falling demand acts to slow price increases by retailers and manufacturers. The Fed's fight against inflation without letting up, and China's slowing economy have reduced demand to where inflation expectations are set to be much lower by 2024.

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The collapse of Binance would lead to liquidity to evaporate in the short term says this report in WSJ driving down the price of tokens. Months after collapse of FTX cryptocurrency company, Binance is in distress, says WSJ. Binance is affected by threat of enforcement actions by the SEC. The US Justice Department has taken a yearslong investigation that could result in criminal charges against Binance and its founder, and billions of dollars in fines, says this report in WSJ citing people familiar with the probe. Binance launched in China in 2017, but it claims to be based nowhere. China has banned crypto currency, and so have many countries. In EU more countries are banning it.

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Ohio senator J.D. Vance is chosen by Trump as his running mate. He came to know Trump Jr. in 2021 and the two are shown to be close. He was elected Ohio Senator with Trump's endorsement. His thinking and style is similar to the former president which may have led to his choice over Marco Rubio of Florida and Borghum of North Dakota. How well known is he in Michigan or Wisconsin, and how much support can he draw in those two states with his energy on working class issues when Michigan and Wisconsin have Democratic governors who are strong on working class issues and union support, remains to be seen.

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US and Chinese trade negotators vice premier Lifeng for China and Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, Jamieson Greer USTR, meet in Switzerland, for talks on tariffs of 145% and 125% on each others goods. An agreement for a 90 day pause is reached. During that pause period tariffs will be 30% by the US, and 10% by China on imported goods. The 30% tariff of the US includes the original 10% tairff on all nations and the 20% tariff for China not doing enough to stop flow of fentanyl  into the US. China says it now recognizes the seriousness of the damage to communities in the US from fentanyl.

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A stunning World Cup 2026 stadium in Monterrey, Mexico, Mexico's business capital in the mountainous north. It is called the Estadio BBVA after the name of the Spanish bank that sponsors it. It overlooks the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains around the city, giving it a nice background. It is 144 miles from the US border and with sweeping vistas of the Cerro de la Silla mountain. Four games will be played here- one of 16 venues for World Cup 2026.  Gills in its futuristic steel exterior enable it to let air in from breezes that blow in so that fans can be cool when it is hot 82-93 degrees F. Local team Rayados play here and  multinational drinks company FEMSA funded the $200 million to build the stadium. Rayados has asked Sergio Ramos of Spain to join and it plays another local team Tigres every year with about 51,000 fans in the stadium. Women's soccer is also popular in Mexico.

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Considering the 15 comments on the Penn Station Rebuild the public has lost interest in forever building project for the dinghy building that is the home of transportation in New York City. The latest is that the federal government has taken over at the urging of NY Governor Kathy Hochul who persuaded DJT to do it. This means state funds of $1.3 billion will be saved and DJT asserted federal authority over the project with Amtrak as owner of the Penn Station planning this out. Construction will begin in 18 months at a cost of $7 billion. The previous estimate was $6 billion. A similar situation is seen for the dilapidated bridge in Baltimore that took years to get the project off the ground as one plan was ditched for another 3 years after the bridge disaster. At this rate the bullet train projects between Ahmedabad and Mumbai will be repeated across many Indian cities before Penn Station is rebuilt, before Baltimore Bridge is rebuilt.

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The sharp decline in the value of the ruble combined with high interest rates is having a serious impact on Russia's automobile industry. Major foreign manufacturers are cutting production and laying off workers. Foriegn automakers have raised prices by as much as 56%, according to PwC. Avtovaz, majority owned by Renault and Nissan, cut its workforce by 12,000 in 2014 own to current level of 50,000, and an additional 1100 layoffs are planned for 2015. Volvo Trucks and General Motors plan to suspend production later in 2015. The decline is also reflected in sales of consumer appliances and computers. Popular imported notebook computer prices surged by as much as 54% in Jan. 2015 compared to Oct 2014, according to Yandex.

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Vernon Jordan points out the problems with media and new tech and the loss of quality journalism. He says this has damaged the political process in the U.S. and Europe by spreading rumor as facts, and not providing reliable information, with news and entertainment not being separated. The failure to educate people he says, risks in Jefferson's words the "perversion of power into tyranny."

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Murali Krishnan of DW.com has this interview with Adar Poonavalla of Serum Institute of India the largest vaccine maker in the world that makes about 60% of all vaccines used in the world. It is beginning manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine so that the manufacturing process is ready to turn out a billion vaccine doses over a short period of 1 to 2 years. Serum's Oxford vaccine would be priced at $13 per dose for coronavirus. Serum is conducting its own trials for the vaccine. About 40 million doses would be ready by October. 

India's pioneering work in vaccine production on a large scale is one of the reasons the world can tackle the future with some confidence for the economy and the health of billions of people all over the world.

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A video of how the French people have come together during this crisis from France 24. It is an inspiring video of how France is returning to family values, a return to basics, about helping neighbors, children and others. Volunteers are helping, the state is helping by supporting 10 million people who have lost work and wages by paying these wages, a way in which the collective in France is helping the individual. There is also an interview with the founder of French app "Hello Neighbor" who describes the changes happening in France and a new sense of what it means to be human and loving thy neighbors. He says this is a time it is lucky to be French because of the respect in France for a strong public health service that serves all its citizens.

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The World bank president Robert Zoellick in an interview with Sudeep Reddy of the Wall Street Journal. He says its frustrating to see Europe respond to problems in banking, sovereign debt and competitiveness that have a chance to work, but only to find that the action is a bit late and a bit short every time. He says the Germans are right in insisting that credit cannot be given away freely, and that reforms have to be made. Yet these reforms in the case of Spain and Italy to increase competitiveness will take time and in the meantime both countries will need bridge financing. A direct recapitalization of European banks by the European Financial Stability Facility is needed to avoid this slow and continuous decline in confidence from negative news and uncertainty. Because the problem now is of a longer term nature with debt issues that will take time to resolve and energy price volatility, Zoellick says simply doing short term stimulus and monetary will not work, and a longer term plan needs to be implemented. Zoellick supported the China Development Report of the World Bank and China's DRC which called for a shift in the economy away from reliance on state owned companies and heavy infrastructure spending. Here he says the new stimulus plan for China was necessary because of slowing growth. Yet he hopes China's leaders keep this in mind as they develop solutions for the long term that avoid the rampant credit expansion and investment of the 2008 Stimulus, and come up with a new policy mix....

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Matina Stevis provides this exceptional account of 3 Greek leaders who fought hard for reforms to put Greece in the right direction for euro currency membership responsibilities, and lost. They tell Stevis they were savagely attacked in the media, by labor unions, and in their own party, so that the fight came at a high personal cost. The 3 politicians now mentioned inside Greece as having done the most to ensure euro currency responsibilities were taken seriously are- Alekos Papadopoulos, who as finance minister fought with Pasok party premier Simitis in 2002 about the dangers of cheap credit coming with the euro currency, Tassos Giannitsis who as labor minister was driven out of Pasok for proposing pension reforms in 2001, and Stefanos Manos who was driven out of New Democracy Party in 1998 after warning of risks in the economy from wasteful spending, including mismanagement of railways, and proposing changes. As Greece commits to a new program under the Syriza left government as a matter of "national responsibility," with reforms to pensions, fixing tax evasion to ensure the tax burden is evenly distributed, reduced military spending, and changes in other areas, the questions in the EU about Greece are about the degree of commitment to changes. In an intervew with WSJ's Bret Stephens Tsipras is candid about the situation when he says the country on its current course would build up the debt all over again, if the debt were to be written off. Problems Tsipras cited in that interview- bribery in health care, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, large inefficient bureaucracy. Yet 2 years after that intervew in the WSJ, Jan. 28, 2013, Tsipras headed a Syriza government that had no proposals on tackling tax evasion, aggravating the problem of moral hazard seen by the Europeans and the IMF under Lagarde. Stefanos Manos writes in the foreword to his book that its incomprehensible how the public good is ignored by so many people who seek only individual gain. ...

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The Indian public from retired businessmen, farmers, students, and the press are coming out in support of anti-corruption leader Anna Hazare's call for effective legislation to control corruption of public officials in India. This comes after a number of corruption scandals and lack of action from the Congress government. The government's bill in parliament - introduced after pressure from public opinion- sets up an ombudsman or Lokpal agency, which would exclude from its jurisdiction the very public officials over whom it was meant to exercize oversight. Under the government's bill the prime minister, the public officials in the bureaucracy and the judiciary would be excluded. This has set up a confrontation with an increasingly exasperated public, with Hazare's protest fast in central New Delhi as the catalyst for protest across the country. The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament that he sees it as an issue of parliamentary sovereignty, as Hazare's protest is for a version of the bill that he has drafted to be adopted. But the public's sense is that Hazare is only responding with his own draft of the bill because of the government's effort to make only a token effort by not giving the anti-corruption body the powers it needs to function effectively. The response has brought thousands of demonstrators from around the country to Tihar jail where Hazare is being held by the government after his arrest. The situation is reminiscent of the protests against the British imperial government by Mohandas Gandhi, and in this sense has serious implicatons for how the country is governed. Corruption was prevalent in India during the days of the license Raj in the period 1950-1990 when business needed government permits in the closed economy of the Nehru period, and corruption existed in the bureaucracy in its delivery of public services. Since 1990 as the economy opened up and the growth rate increased corruption at all levels of government has in some ways increased and become embedded in the bureaucracy and government. This hurts the poor and the middle class the most, as corruption acts as a tax on the delivery of public services and infrastructure development, both badly needed in an emerging market country....