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A big change and a rare combination of events is causing labor costs to rise. China's new labor law makes it more difficult for employers to reduce wage costs by methods used in amarket environent without an enforeable code of conduct. The costs of certain raw materials like plastics have gone up significantly. Environmental laws are taken more seriously. And just when wage and raw material costs are rising the government in response to international pressure on the trade surplus is phasing out tax rebates on the less sophisticated products like toys, apparel, leather etc with the intention of moving into more sophisticated products like electronics and cars. As a result after years of falling prices in 2006 prices of Chinese goods in the US went up by 2.4%. And China is putting pressure on commodity prices worldwide through its growing use. All this contributed to USA inflation going up 4.1% in 2007 from 2.5% in 2006. How will this change in 2008 and the years ahead just when the USA is entering a recession and period of sluggish growth? About 7.5% of American spending on consumer goods come from China. With the weaker dollar in relation to the yuan, Chinese factories get fewer yuan for their exports to the USA, the depreciation of the dollar being about 7.6% in 2007 with more depreication ahead in 2008 and 2009. Factory wages have gone up by 80 % in the last few years and the lowest factory wage is about $125 according to experts. Chinese factories have already factored all this into their new pricing asking for price increases of 20, 30, 40 or 50 % according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association. What to expect then on the retail shelves of stores in the USA? Expect a price increase of 10% on Chinese goods. This means from now on Chinese goods instead of lowering inflation in the USA will actually add to inflationand the area of cheap goods coming to a close. As it takes time to move production to places elsewhere in Asia like Vietnam and India its going to be some time before another country takes the place of China....

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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One more area where the Obama administration has not acted decisively is the building of high seed rail networks. Spain has plans to invest $140 billion over next 10 years to develop a network of 6200 miles of high speed rail lines.So far the Obama administration has allocated $8 billion, and the whole issue is being put off for another 18 months. Department of Transportation has already received proposals for $100 billion of new high speed rail lines from 40 states.

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Ezra Klein says about the contrasting choices offered by Romney-Ryan vs Obama-Biden, that everyone wanted to see a clear choice between different approaches to the issues, and now they have got one. Its almost a repeat of Reagan-Bush vs. Carter-Mondale during a period of high unemployment with Democrats risking underestimating the importance of the careful choice made by Romney today.

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Rep. Paul Ryan got his start in politics in 1983 when he was hired to work for a think tank Empower America. This think tank was formed by Weber, Kirkpatrick, Bennett and Kemp, to preserve Reagan era ideas of focussing on economic growth generated by private investment. This was followed by working as an aide to Senator Brownback of Kansas and Rep. Jack Kemp till his election to Congress in 1996. Kemp was the big idea guy and it was Paul Ryan who delved into the budget details at the time to support Kemp's ideas. Kemp was Republican vice presidential candidate, the same position that Ryan is in today. Ryan represented the area around Janesville, Wisconsin, in the U.S. Congress. He graduated from the University of Miami, Ohio.

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Spain's plan to reduce corporate taxes by 5% and individual income taxes by average 12.5% in 2015-2016, reversing earlier austerity measures. A similiar move in Italy.

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The Rivlin-Domenici Deficit Report recommends freezing US defense spending from 2012 to 2016 at its current level of over $700 billion a year. This means the Defense department budget would not be adjusted for inflation, and the military would not have the $431 billon in additional spending that the Congressional Budget Office had projected. By contrast Defense Secretary Gates has sought to keep the Defense departmet budget growing at 1% a year after inflation, plus the costs of the war in Afghanistan. And the Bowles -Simpson Deficit Commisssion chairmen have recommended $100 billion in savings by 2015 be used to reduce the deficit. The way Gates sees it the savings of 2-3% annually in department contracts would be used for other military purposes. Rivlin-Domenici and Bowles-Simpson do not see it that way, they want to use the money for deficit reduction and improving the economic prospects for the US.

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In a new WSJ/NBC New poll, conducted July 24-27, 2009, 42% called the Obama health plan a bad idea, and 36% called it a good idea. In mid June the poll showed Americans evenly divided on this question. It reflects rising anxiety over the costs of the health plan and what it will do to the deficit, and also shows public anxiety about the ways in which Obama and Congress are reaching compromises to pay for it and to control costs. Added to this are the anxieties raised about government involvement in healthcare and medical decisions about care. Noteworthy are two differing pieces of evidence. In the WSJ/NBC News poll, only two in ten people thought the quality of their own care would improve, only 15% of those with private insurance thought that it would improve the quality of their care. And 4 in ten people thought quality of care would get worse, and 45% of those with private insurance thought quality of care would get worse. By focussing on the cost of health care, the administration seems to have ignored or missed the concerns of people about the quality of care if government focussed on cutting costs. These concerns are real as a vast majority of the public, or about 85% of the people, as Martin Feldstein points out in a recent Washington Post column, are insured. The question is what cost would they be willing to pay for the admittedly worthy cause of insuring the uninsured? And even with the unisured, it seems likely with the current Obama reform plan that immigrants and other people may still remain uninsured, at least for some time. Would a huge burden of $1 trillion make this worthwhile, and is there some better way to do this without the prospect of higher taxes further down the road to pay for this. These are points Feldstein makes. The other piece of evidence is that at the same time that there are reservations about what is coming out of Congress today, there is general support for making constructive changes to healthcare. The WSJ poll showed 56% of respondents favoring the basic ideas in the reforms being considered in Congress, with 38% opposing it....

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Samuelson warns that turning seniors into a protected class making no sacrifices whatsoever, will mean shrinking all other social programs, defense and investments in education and infrastructure. This is the reality of the budget deficits facing the U.S. He cites the Congressional Budget Office projections that even with cutting defense and non defense discretionary spending by a third, the U.S. risks a deficit in 2023 of about 6.75% of the economy or gross domestic product (GDP). To cover this would require $1 trillion in higher taxes, an increase of a third above the 1970-2011 average. He says Democrats are using demagoguery and intimidation on this issue, and ironically even Paul Ryan's proposal reflects a desire not to touch seniors benefits and willingness to pass on the costs to the young to pay for these programs. Social Security and Medicare are a critical part of the American fabric, and no one wants to dismantle them, it is about modernizing them to reflect higher life expectancy and larger wealth accumulated by the elderly compared to previous generations, and to reduce the burden on the young. ...

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Paul Ryan asks President Obama to put forward his plan for deficit reduction the day after the passage of the August 2, 2011 Debt Ceiling and Deficit Reduction bill in Congress. Ryan points out that health care cost increases are on an unsustainable path with costs going up by 8% in 2011 and projected to go up by 8.5% in 2012. The Obama Health Care legislation tries in Ryan's view the same failed bureaucratic efforts of the past to cut health care costs. Without a genuine and sure plan to cut costs the only way to pay for Medicare with new mandates is to increase taxes again and again. He cites the CBO's Long Term Outlook in June that total tax revenues would have to double by 2050 to finance the current rate of spending on Medicare and other programs. For Ryan the failure of the Obama administration to come up with its own plan for deficit reduction after passing the Health Care legislation- with expanded mandates and no certain cost control in the reform - is the most difficult to swallow. ...

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General Electric, GE, experienced a steep decline in the last decade. The worst news came in 2018 with the loss of half its share price and market value. One story tells about an employee who was forced out of retirement back to work seeing the loss of value in GE shares in 2018. Rarely has a company of this size seen a fall in stock price this steep, for a stock that was once seen as safe for widows. About 60% of GE business comes from jet engines, electric power generators and wind turbines. GE now plans to sell its health care business and other business that do not relate to core infrastructure in energy, aerospace, and other markets. Under Jack Welch a faulty model of adding diverse businesses that had nothing to do with its core business and expertise in infrastructure were added. A home mortgage lending business was added and GE Capital expanded. NBC Universal was added with little justification in a period when CEO's acted without much consultation. The home mortgage lending unit collapsed with large losses during the 2008 financial crisis and GE's share price dropped drastically to $6.00. Under Welch's successor Mr. Immelt the GE Capital unit was shrunk in size, but losses continued to mount. An oil field service unit was added which also sustained losses.  Immelt's successor Flannery faced a loss of $15 billion from the financial lending unit. Sale of some businesses was not sufficient to meet the loss. Flannery is now taking GE out of all the businesses which were not core business. The NBC Universal television business was sold to Comcast in 2013. GE Healthcare is next. This closes a bad chapter in GE's story under Welch and Immelt. GE's dividend was cut for the second time since the Great Depression. The story of GE is also the story of American business during the last two decades, with icons such as GM, Ford and GE suffering decline, businesses that operated like little fiefdoms of old nobility in Europe, with CEO's operating in a CEO centric culture, not tolerating contrary opinion for informed debate on issues facing the business. Alfred Sloan founder of Genral Motors called constructive debate central to good management. Later Intel CEO Andy Grove coined the phrase constructive confrontation as a way of constructive debate, and the CEO was shown as the first of equals. The CEO centric management ignored these warnings and admonitions in running their fiefdoms.   ...

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The experience of shift worker Randy Johnson, at Ampad. American Pad & Paper (Ampad) was acquired by Bain Capital in 1992.

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This issue of the Economist magazine looks at Saudi oil price cuts and the future for shale oil in the world's energy mix. In the short run overleveraged companies in the shale oil business in the U.S. will be affected by oil prices below $50 a barrel. The Economist points out that shale oil deposits are extensive in the U.S. and other parts of the world. The upfront costs are as little as $1.5 million for drilling a well. As a result the economics of shale will depend on new advances in technology and efficiency to bring costs down below existing costs averaging of about $57 a barrel, with some producers at costs of $35 a barrel. Because of technology advances anticipated in the field it points to shale oil as a reliable source of low cost oil supplies in the future, keeping oil prices lower than in the past and much less subject to manipulation by cartel pricing or oil price shocks. The lower volatility and lower level of oil prices will be good for the rapidly growing economies in Asia and the developed economies of Europe and the U.S., and for countries in Latin America such as Argentina with large shale deposits....

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Health and Education are the best bets for investment to revive the economy. BW's Mandel says the health and education fiscal channel is still functioning, while other ways of stimulating the economy are in breakdown mode. Taxpayer money given to banks, businesses and households will be saved to pay down high levels of debt and because of uncertainty. But funds directed to schools and hospitals will be spent to buy new equipment, modernize and update, put up new buildings, and hire workers. Health care especially is keen on hiring new nurses, medical technicians, home aides, and so on. And over the past year health care and education workers have risen by 500,000. In these hard times the hardest hit areas like Michigan have seen health and education make up 23.7 % of jobs, while manufacturing has dropped to half that, only 12.5%. And in the past decade health and education has had a stabilizing influence already. Nationally these areas have hired steadily, adding 5.3 million jobs since 1999. Meanwhile the rest of the economy has seen booms and busts, and off shoring and outsourcing overseas, with only 400,000 new jobs created in 10 years. Education has suffered neglect for needed infrastructure including broadband and internet capabilities for classrooms, and health care suffers inefficiencies such as computerization of records, and cost inefficiencies. These areas can be modernized and improved, adding to benefits years from now. They are large sectors employing 30 million workers or 22% of the workforce, and now badly needed to stabilize the economy as these employees are well paid and could help keep consumption from falling badly. A Gallup poll taken in February, shows 56% of Americans showed that education investments were "one of the most important items " for stimulus spending, coming out on top, and beating tax cuts....

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Former Senator Jim DeMint lays out his reasoning for the Republican fight to defund ObamaCare, as the healthcare legislation is now called by Republicans. He points to problems with the legislation with issues about how much the added entitlements will cost in the future( more than the $250 billion by 2023 estimate of CBO insists DeMint based on the general lowballing of projections), and higher premiums for the young and elderly on exchanges. He says the 2012 elections were fought on economic issues not ObamaCare, and that the public he has met in visits to different states as president of the Heritage Foundation continues to be skeptical about ObamaCare. He sees the correct role of the Opposition party to point out the deficiencies in the law and call for corrections in the path for healthcare.

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Feldstein, adviser to the Romney campaign, refutes the assertion based on computer models that the Romney Tax Plan of a 20% across the board cut in taxes cannot be paid for by limiting the deductions of high income tax earners. His own analysis based on IRS data, shows taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of over $100,000 made itemized deductions of $636 billion in 2009. By taxing these deductions at a 30% marginal rate, additional revenue of $191 billion can be raised to pay for the Romney Tax Plan's static revenue loss of $181 billion. A smaller revenue loss of $148 billion is predicted based on increased incomes and taxes from the behavioural effects of lower taxes on earners. He says this was the thinking behind the Reagan tax cuts of 1986 and the Simpson-Bowles commission plan that would generate economic growth by reforming the tax system's distortions.

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Dan Maffei won his Congressional seat from an incumbent Republican from Syracuse. Others of the 35 first term Congressmen represent a rural, small town and suburban areas like Maffei. And they are not about to lose their seats after tough congressional campaigns, they say, by voting the wrong way on health care reform. As one from Maryland put it he is not willing to foloow the lead just to follow the lead. These are the Congressmen that Steny Hoyer, Rep. from Maryland, who leads the Democrats in the House, wants to give more time as this is what they wanted. And these Congressmen are making themselves heard and making changes in the health care legislation where they disagreed.

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This New York Times editorial describes the impact on lower income Americans of spending cuts that are part of the Romney-Ryan plan.