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Mullaly's experience at Ford, its culture, changes he has made and the gradual improvements that are taking place and showing up in better quality cars, cars for a global market with all global product capabilities focussed on developing top rated cars and all energies focussed on fewer car brands, the Ford and Lincoln brands. But as results improve the test will be how well Ford can withstand the difficult conditions ahead as consumption is sure to decline, and sales of cars drop with it as carmakers go through 2008 and 2009. The decision to focus on profitability was a critical choice made by Mulally and shows his instincts are right to let Ford's market share drop to its natural level and cut production to cut inventories and let ford scale down into a smaller but profitable and reilient company. The other was to focus on global cars and global product capabilities under Dennis Kuzak. And the third move to get marketing right with Jim Farley taken by Mullaly from Toyota's marketing organization. And the focus would be only on the Ford brand and logo, so Mulally will close Mercury models and sell the premium luxury brands except Volvo with the sale to Tata Motors. The market and stock price is responding and Ford has already shown a profit of $750 million in the second quarter of 2007 by being able to sustain higher prices with fewer cars to sell. The Fiesta compact goes on sale in the US in 2010 and this with the redesigned Focus and other models will show how far Ford can go. The risk is now more in the economy as BW estiimates show a $3 trillion overhang of overspending that occurred over the last decade that will have to be worked down by US consumers and so one can expect a continued and protracted decline in sales not just for Ford but for all manufacturers in the USA market....

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Incredulous. Thats the thought as one sees S&P data showing wall street analysts forecasts showing 315% rise in earnings for financial sector companies and 74% for S&P 500 stock index for 4th quarter this year over last year. Cautions against believing these forecasts and thinks them incredible. Shows that forecastste are way off as they appear to be sticking to a conventional view that till recently did not even accept that the US could be in a recession already. And Bear Stearns being done in by rumors this theory doesn't hold as it was leveraged with debt at 33 times equity capital, Bear was borrowing money heavily to invest, as highly leveraged as Carlyle Capital the mortgage fund that also saw a collapse. And management was weak in anticipating things could deteriorate quickly. Interestingly this is happening with auto sales as forecasts at GM are way behind the curve. Part of the problem may be that things are deteriorating so quickly that some people havent caught up and are still hoping for things to get better by the latter part of the year a scenario on which hope was pinned in January 2008 when things were a bit better....

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Hedge funds significantly underperformed index funds and passive investments in 2009-2015. Hatchuel looks at reasons why this has happened and the unusual environment created by the Fed's monetary policy intervention. Hedge funds reacted in periods of volatility in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 hurting returns.

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Cold weather dampened U.S. economic growth in the 4th quarter, with the initial reading of 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual growth in GDP revised to a reading of 2.4% by the Commerce Department. Projections by economists are for even lower growth of 2% in the 1st quarter from the cold weather, which was the worst in 35 years for some parts of the north and midwestern U.S. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 2.6%, and the savings rate dropped by one percentage point from the average of the last 3 years to 4.5%. Government spending and investment declined by 12.8%, as efforts to reduce the deficit continued. Offsetting this, and the bright spot here was more business investment on equipment, software and buldings of 7.3%, and exports up by 9.4%. GDP in the 4th quarter was up 2.5% from the prior year and unemployment rate was 6.6% in Jan 2014. Overall assessment was cautiously optimistic for the U.S. economy at the beginning of the sixth year following the global financial crisis of 2008....

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ECB president, Mario Draghi, said on March 25, 2014, "we will do what is needed to maintain price stability." Annual inflation in the eurozone declined to 0.6% forecast for the eurozone, 0.9% for Germany, and a negative 0.2% in Spain, for Feb. 2014.

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Valerie Jarrett is one of the key advisors to Presidential candidate Barrack Obama. She holds important positions in the Chicago business and non-profit organizations. Trained at University of Michigan law school, she has headed Chicago's 250 person planning and development department, then became CEO of Habitat, a Chicago real estate developer, and held positions like chairman of board of Chicago Stock Exchange, and board member of 2016 Summer Olympics committee. She headed the finacne committee for Obama's 2004 campaign for the US Senate.

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Experts view the behaviour of 10 year Treasury yields at different periods following the 2008 financial crisis. Twice in early 2010 and early 2011 there were signals that the economy was not so weak before faltering, each time 10 year Treasury yields went up to 3.75-4% before going down to the 2.24% level. This situation appears to be happening again in 2012 with rates dropping in the first quarter to between 1.82%- 2.11%. The yields on 10 year Treasury jumped again, this time to 2.39% on March 19, 2012, as the eurozone crisis fears and U.S. economic growth fears subsided for the time being.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's minutes for its April 26-27 meeting show prolonged discussion on an exit strategy from a loose monetary policy. The first step would be to make a significant reduction in the $2.4 trillion portfolio of mortgage and Treasury securities. Fed chairman Bernanke has pointed out that the Fed will first make a decision to reduce its mortgage portfolio by letting the securities to mature without reinvesting in Treasurys as it has done so far. This would be followed by reducing its holdings of long term Treasury bonds in the same manner. These steps would precede raising short term rates followed by the sale of agency securities. The minutes reveal the Fed's thinking and strategy. For instance, the minutes show "a majority of participants preferred that sales of agency securities come after the first increase in the Fed's target for short term interest rates." The minutes also show that "many of those participants also expressed a preference that sales proceed relatively gradually," which could be over a five year period. Economists expect the Fed to wait till sometime in 2013 to raise rates, with the signalling of Fed moves to reduce its holdings before raising rates....

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Hitachi's conversion to a leaner, more profit conscious company, learning from rivals, GE, Siemens, IBM and large Korean companies. CEO, Nakanishi, graduated from Stanford with a computer science degree in 1979, during a break from Hitachi. He takes a hands on approach to management and brings this approach to tough assignments to learn what is going wrong. He moved to San Jose, to figure out why the hard disk drive business Hitachi bought from IBM for $2.05 billion was losing money. There he found quality problems were causing 60% of the hard drives coming off the production line with defects. After fixing the problems and achieving 10% profit margins Nakanishi put the company up for sale. Western Digital bought the company for $4.8 billion. His hands on approach includes meeting directly with public officials and ministers in governments around the world that buy its nuclear plants, high speed trains and large machinery. To maintain its preferred bidder status Nakanishi met with Britain's transport minister during the switch in government to the Conservative party in 2010. In his approach he is part of a new breed of Japanese executives, some with education in the U.S., such as Toyota's new CEO, Akio Toyoda, and others such as Toshiba's CEO, Norio Sasaki, who are eager to break away from the mold. Like Toshiba, Hitachi has shifted away from its consumer product lines. Hitachi consumer products are expected to make up only 10% of sales in the coming fiscal year. Emphasis is on the industrial products from nuclear plants to power plant equipment and high speed trains that powered Hitachi from its early beginnings as a maker of mining equipment in the 1920's. These executives are vigilant about a "Not Invented Here Syndrome" typical of large Japanese companies. Nakanishi says there is a lot Japanese companies can learn from rivals about cost and strategies. The experience came with hard knocks. In March 2009, Hitachi announced the biggest loss for a Japanese company upto that time of $9.9 billion. As head of the power and industrial business Nakanishi lost a contract to build a power plant in the Unted Arab Emirates to Korean companies. Compared to Hitachi, Toshiba's strategy is to emphasize industrial products such as nuclear reactors but also keep a presence in consumer products because Sasaki's view is that consumer products require smaller investments and generate cash flow. Jurio Osawa, WSJ, April 9, 2012, Toshiba's Chief Takes Stock....

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The government is focussing on tangible common equity ratio which for Citigroup is at a low of 1.5%. A 3% TCE is considered safe. The tier 1 capital ratio for Citigroup is 11.8% above the level that shows capital adequacy. To boost the Citigroup TCE ratio the government is expected to convert its preferred stock into common stock that would give it about 40% of Citigroup's common stock.

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Takes the risks of the bubble collapsing quite lightly in his reference to the Great Depression after the 1920's stock bubble in the USA. It took several decades for the economy to come back in the US after the 1920's China can ill afford such an experience as hundereds of millions of Chinese are not benefitting in the rural areas as are the coastal areas so for them it would be a great setback, and the economy would take years to recover which can be quite painful.

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Andrew Stuttaford's excellent review of a book on the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany. In early 2010, the out of print book, "When Money Dies," by Adam Fergusson was trading for four figure sums. It describes life under hyperinflation in Germany and the events leading to it, the efforts to find a solution, and the collapse of the German economy with the worldwide great depression. The book describes the death of the German mark, with 20 marks needed to buy one British pound in 1914, going to 310 billion in late 1923! The story starts with the onset of war in 1914, and the fateful German decision to fund the war effort largely through debt and the printing presses. What exacerbated the situation was the relatively shallow capital markets in Germany, the creation of 'loan banks' funded by a printing press used by the central bank, and the muffling of all information. The stock markets were closed during the war and foreign exchange rates were not published. The destruction of the war, revolution, protests, imposition of reparations by the victorious powers, and terrotorial occupation worsened the situation. The efforts of central bank president, Rudolf Havenstein, to prevent mass unemployment by devaluing the currency to keep exports competitive, worked only for a time. In the end, says Fergusson, the music stopped. Lacking a reliable pricing mechanism and faced with huge strains, including the onset of the worldwide depression, the whole German economy stopped functioning at even the most basic level. The whole economy was reduced to barter. Rent was payed with butter and lumps of coal were bartered for something else. The only time an economy was reduced to barter in recent times (in the last 2 decades) was the situation in Argentina after a sharp devaluation. The Russian economy also faced a trying period in recent years with the collapse of communism and a collapse of the currency. And the Asian economies faced a difficult period during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. But nothing compares with what happened in Weimar Germany. The book was originally written for a British audience at a time of rapid inflation in the 1970's, and it reminded readers of the connection between the quantity of money in circulation and price stability. Financial crises play out in different ways in different periods, but it is a sobering warning for the need for prudence in financial affairs, avoiding excesses, the need for global cooperation and a measure of peaceful coexistence in world affairs that enables financial systems to work. With excesses in asset bubbles of the stock market or housing kind, bad loans in the financial system, overleveraging in the financial system, lack of reserves, or huge trade deficits, posing the new types of risks in today's environment. Bad loans in the financial system caused problems in Japan in the past and pose risks in China today, overleveraging caused problems in the US in 2008, lack of reserves in S. Korea in 1997, a collapse of the currency in Russia in the 1990's, and a sharp devaluation with a lack of reserves in Argentina. Too much money in the system, as in China today with the sharp increase in bank lending as part of the stimulus following the 2008 crisis, can distort the functioning of the financial system with excesses in real estate speculation and overproduction. The nature of the crises are different but all have a common factor of tolerance for excesses over a long period and a lack of prudence, exacerbated by international tensions and wars that weaken a country's finances. The twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are estimated to cost a trillion dollars each and this can only exacerbate the finances in the US, when coupled with other factors such as bad real estate loans in the financial system, and huge trade deficits....