LyrArc Article Gist
This Washington Post report shows elder cost where you live in the US. Out of 5.9 million Americans over 85 years 50% live with family, including spouses and adult children, 40% live alone including assisted living facilities, and only 8% live in nursing homes. A quarter live in multigenerational homes, and this is common among Asians, with Filipino families tending to live together. In Florida 57% of seniors over 85 years live with family and spouses, and in Texas 31% live in multigenerational households. Hawaii has the highest number of people over 85 years living with their families- 61%. 16% of seniors over 85 years live in nursing homes in South Dakota, highest in the US, and in Louisiana 44% of women seniors over 85 years live alone, according to Census.

LyrArc Article Gist
Us bombs Kharg Island 15 miles from Iran mainland where most of Iran oil is transported by pipeline from oil fields, then loaded and shipped on oil tankers.90% of Iran oil exports are shipped from Kharg.

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Japan's car exports have grown in the last six years to double what they were before, growing to $40 billion. This includes a jump in export of SUV's vehicles. Just in the first quarter of 2018 the export of automobiles from Japan to U.S. is up by 10%. Japan is not keen on talking about this issue. President Trump is looking at negotiating a one on one trade deal with Japan instead of through the TPP agreement. as this is seen as a better way to address a $60 billion trade deficit. TPP is not a solution for the U.S. imbalance in trade with Japan as Japan already has no tariffs on imported cars. Yet other barriers exist that make it difficult for U.S. automakers. Ford exited Japan in 2016 and the U.S. has only 1% of the Japanese market. Japanese buyers stay away from American cars and prefer the smaller highly fuel efficient cars made in Japan by Japanese automakers. Perception of buying home made also exist. Other barriers also exist such as zoning and for setting up dealerships, unique safety standards. Japanese automakers make most of the sedans in the U.S. but export the SUV's from Japan. ...

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The two waves of the coronavirus in India can be compared looking at the graphs and this report in the Times of India. The case volume and deaths in the worst hit state Maharashtra is shown here. The case volume increased by about 50% in the second wave but deaths were about half that in the first wave. Most of the deaths were in the people over 65 and most of the cases in the ages below 40 years. In the over 65 age only 5% have been vaccinated which means that medical management is still the best way of tackling the coronavirus. Vaccine supplies are the bottleneck and this is beginning to change- so that by August ample supplies of the vaccine should make the difference in bringing down cases and deaths.  Lockdowns are managed carefully so that the economy can recover in the second half of 2021 and in 2022.  Any assessment of the crisis management must take into account the speed of the response, its effectiveness, and keeping in mind the economic recovery needed following the pandemic. ...

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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With hyperinflation of an astounding 1 million percent, the popularity of Mr. Maduro has slipped to 14%, says this report in the Washington Post. The opposition leader has about 60% popularity according to a recent Datanalysis poll. The military, says the Washington Post, is not defending Maduro, it is defending themselves. Even a amnesty law may not be sufficient. 

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US China agreement on TikTok sale to American ownership as required by Congress, Scott Bessent announces that an agreement has been reached with China in negotiations for the transfer of ownership. China is concentrating its energies in negotiating tariffs that were kept at 30% by the US and 10% by China which hurt Chinese industry in industries where it has overcapacity.

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Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global, is run by Yngve Slyngstad. The fund has $570 billon, $100,000 for each of Norway's 4.9 million people. The fund took a 23% loss in 2008. Then the fund made a shift from 40% equity holding to 60% equity holding, which has paid off. The losses were reversed with a 26% gain in 2009 and a 10% gain in 2010. The fund gets all of Norway's oil revenues less about 4% of the fund's value that goes to the state budget. Slyngstad became CEO in 2008, and persuaded finance ministers to take on greater risk, leading to $175 billion in stock investments during the financial crisis. He has told Parliament that he will get returns of 4% after inflation- higher than returns of 3.1% that were made since 1998. With assets equal to 2% of the total market value of stocks trading in Europe, the Norwegian fund is a major investor. Rules set for the fund prohibit investments larger than 10% in any one stock.

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Awareness is growing in the US, Germany and other countries that a 4th Covid Booster shot will be needed. The plan is to start with people over 60 years.

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Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.

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Working part-time during retirement years is important for health- staying active, using ones mind and brain, social engagement, and getting satisfaction in the workplace. A Study in 2017 by the Rand Corporation finds about 40% of workers over 65 who had previously retired back to the workplace. People are lengthening careers, and returning to work not just for financial reasons. Many of these people are looking for ways to remain active after realizing that staying active was important and if this could be combined with having extra time off in part time jobs for other hobbies and interests- this would better fit today's lifestyle and choices with people living longer and having more productive lives than ever before. A recent Pew Research analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the proportion of people over age 65 who are employed part time or full time has gone up in 2016 from about 13% to 19% with about half these people working full time. This trend to work following retirement has a word for it- people call it "unretirement." Where work is less taxing as for graduates and people with higher education this is happening more.  From a health perspective this can be important, as people can become more reclusive and more internal looking, less socially engaged as they retire without even realizing it. Some level of social engagement is planned by people retiring, and many retirees do volunteer work, yet this may not be enough. For those people who retired early because of burnout in the workplace, strains with other workers, poor culture in the workplace, the retirement for a few years after 60 can serve as a way to replenish one's resources, recover and resume working again in a place that is better suited for them. The restorative break can then serve as a way to get back to the workplace in a positive way. Work that is meaningful, offering opportunities for contributing one's skills, adds a new dimension to people's lives, and is also a contributor to living healthy lives, at a time when people live longer. Retirement at 65 may not make sense in this new environment, opportunities for part-time work bring the knowledge and skills of experienced people to the workplace and offer a win-win solution for both. More needs to be done to create these opportunities in a planned and organized way in business and government, in all workplaces. ...

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Without hydropower and the clean energy from dams estimates are for 10% more use of burning fossil fuels. China and Brazil have added 12.5 gigawatts of power from hydropower, 50% of this in the world for 2017. Africa added 1.9 gigawatts in this period and 6 countries depend on hydro for 90% of electricity production.  The entry of private capital and the financing from the government in the case of China and India is replacing the role of the World Bank. 

The effect of lack of electricity in India and Africa is underestimated in how it affects people's lives in these regions with lack of water supplies, and lack of electricity severely hurting people in large numbers who are marginalized or forgotten because they never had access to lighting at night before.

LyrArc Article Gist
What is Japan and South Korea learning from Hormuz? Do nothing not a strategy. US is self sufficient in oil. Does it make sense to get 90% of imports through Hormuz and expect US to take on responsibility when it does not need oil from Hormuz?

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Huaneng Power China's largest power utility company announced that electric power generation went up by 40% in the 1st quarter of 2010. Datang International Power said its electric power output was up by 33%. Continual power plant construction has led to China building 80% of the new generating capacity in recent years. Over the next 10 years China plans to spend $150 billion or so to increase capacity nine fold- it already has 21 nuclear plants being built. Much of the nuclear plant building knowhow is being acquired along the way. The Lingao plant in Guangdong which was started in 2005 and will be completed this year, uses 50% local content. In the next unit to be finished in 2011 it will reach 70%, and by 2012 China expects to reach 100%, and gain the ability to export its knowhow.

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This editorial Board opinion piece in the WSJ gives exceptional insights into major issues facing Germany, the cost of electricity generated from renewables, failure to meet climate change emissions targets set by the government, and the difficulty of forming a new coalition government with conflicting goals of the Greens vs the CDU and the FDP.  By one estimate it cost households and business about $125 billion extra in higher electricity bills for 2000-2015 to subsidize renewable energy from solar and wind. Utilities are required to buy renewable at above market rates, especially since the energy revolution called Energiewende was launched by chancellor Merkel in 2010. German electricity prices are about 36 cents per kilowatt hour compared to 13 cents in America. The 2011 decision following the Fukushima disaster to phase out nuclear power by 2022 made the effort to meet renewables targets of 40% by 2020 compared to 1990 -exceeding the 20% for the EU- even harder. Germany sees a 30% target for 2020 as reachable.   Even though renewables can generate 50% of required energy supplies, only 30% of the supplies are utilized as the renewables are generated mostly in the north of the country and there is a lack of transmission lines to bring it to the industrial south. The dirty secret says the WSJ editorial board for the renewable story in Germany is that a lot of coal is used in dirty coal plants to meet electricity needs when wind and solar energy are not available. Cheaper coal not natural gas is preferred for such generation as daytime peak use that recoups more expensive gas cost is managed with renewables. Leading to the situation that Germany generates only 9% of energy from natural gas compared to 30% in the U.S.. The further Germany has gone in renewables has also led to the paradox of increased dependence on coal. Getting to the new Jamaica coalition being planned between the CDU and the FDP and the Greens. The problem is that the Greens want to see the 20 most polluting coal plants closed, the CDU and the FDP are willing to close only ten coal polluting plants. The WSJ's opinion is that voters chose the AfD right wing party with 13% of the vote because of the platform promise to shut down Merkel's Energiewende policy.   ...

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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC provides this report showing sexual harassment in the workplace is increasing in Asian countries. A recent ILO report shows over 50% of women participation in the workforce. With more women in the workplace the threat is growing for women. As many offences are unreported-and more so with women who have never been in the workplace before- the 30 to 40% incidents reported to the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) for women workers in Asia-Pacific may be understated.

The culture in many Asian companies is also not friendly to women. A lot needs to be done to change this considering the slow progress to ensure a safe environment for women at work, and governments need to make this a priority.

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The reduced availability of child care services, longer time it takes to get steady jobs in a slow growth economy, and the "safety trap" of becoming used to a freer lifestyle, areincreasing the average age at which Italian women have their first child. It has moved up from about 30 to 31.4 in 2012. As more women pursue higher education and get university degrees the trend is to focus on jobs and lifestyle. As grandparents get older and the lack of enough preschool centers this makes child care harder, in a nation where 68% of children under 10 are still cared for by grandparents. At present only half of Italian mothers work, according to the OECD, compared to 74% in France. This worsens the demographics with currently 150 people over 65 years for the 100 under 14 years, and the figures increasing with fewer young people to support retirees, according to Istat.

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...

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Le Monde gives a detailed look at the origins of the RN and Marie Le Pen in her father's party the Front Nationale that had it's origins in France's War in Algeria. It's first success was in town councils in the south east Cote de Azur where former French Algerians had settled in large numbers. Jean Le Pen was the son of a fisherman in the Brittany region who lost is life hitting a mine during the war in Occupied France. He was a teenager at the time and is shown here as a ward of the state. He tried to enlist in the War in Vietnam but got there just after Dien Bien Phu and worked in Saigon for a newspaper Caravelle. He returned to France and joined a paratrooper unit in the French Air Force during the Algerian War and became an opponent of De Gaulle's policy in Algeria to decolonize the region. He inherited the fortune of a French cement manufacturer who supported his party FN. Chirac and Sarkozy become his opponents. For 20 years after this he is shown to win anywhere between 2% and 10% in European and French presidential elections. His daughter Marie Le Pen and her supporters decided to rebrand the party as Reassemblement Nationale RN and win as much as 15-20% and more recently 30% of the vote in presidential and EU elections. The fatigue with Macron leads to a surge in RN support in small towns and rural France. Marie changes her stance on the EU willing to support the EU. ...

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DJT's 32% reciprocal tariff on Taiwanese goods including chips is working. When reports under president Biden showed TSMC investing in Arizona it was still a slow process with much foot dragging including articles by TSMC executives about how difficult it was to make in US. Lyrarc commented specifically on this as TSMC founders got their education and training in the US and it sounded a bit too condescending. Now that the Trump administration has its tariffs in place this WSJ report says the factory in Arizona is advancing production by several quarters, and it has started production late in 2024 with quality comparable to TSMC plants in Taiwan. How quickly DJT's approach with tariffs to level playing field and letting Taiwan know it owes defense and its education in semiconductors to the US is working, is shown by this example like others. And the $65 billion investment is now up to $165 billion in the US that TSMC is planning. The extra $100 billion is a commitment made to DJT. TSMC revenue growth is higher now at 30% than 20% it had previously with AI and robotic demand in 2025 so that it needs to make more chips quickly. ...

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Michael Barnier leads the negotiating team for the EU as it begins negotiations with Britain on Brexit. He is a former foreign minister of France and former EU commissioner, giving him the necessary skills and experience. Yet as he meets with the Affairs of the European Committee in the German parliament, even Barnier is not clear how the negotiations will be conducted. Only that the issues relating to disentangling the closely interwoven economies of the EU and Britain relate to nationals of the EU and Britain in each others region, the common 20,000 legally binding regulations, and the price tag for Britain to pay of 60 billion euros. The leading German in the negotiating team is Gunther Oettinger, a former EU budget commissioner, and he tells Der Spiegel that the bill may be even higher than that number. The figure will be arrived at by taking into account the obligations of Britain and applying this to assets. The obligations include the money owed to the EU budget, share of medium term budget planning to 2020, share of pension payments to EU civil servants. The British take a different view and do not understand why they have to pay this amount when they are exiting. The British want to see their future relationship on trade and access to the EU markets discussed early, but the EU position is just the opposite, first exit negotiations to be completed by September 2018, then other discussions on trade. March 29, 2019 is the date set for Britain to be no longer a member of the EU. Yet even the sequence of issues has not been set and the sides could not be further apart than they are now. Each side looking at its situation domestically with elections in the EU in 2017, and May facing the added challenge of Scotland threatening to leave the UK. ...

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WSJ reports from Pakistan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil show the effects of inflation in the price of grains, oil, cereals, other essential food supplies, and oil in these countries. In Beirut the price of flour is up 1000%. In Kenya bread prices are up 40%. In Indonesia the government has put price controls on cooking oil. In Brazil Petrobras increased oil prices by 19%. In Turkey a sharp increase in the price of sunflower oil caused panic buying. In Uganda price of vegetable oil has doubled, and wheat up 25%. Russia and Ukraine supply one third of the cereal exports in the world and 52% of the sunflower oil. Higher fertilizer prices are a problem for farmers as Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer. Increase in wheat prices are an acute problem for Turkey which imports over 80% of wheat supplies and Egypt which imports 70%. Overall World Bank officials say this could be a problem as bad as the coronavirus pandemic itself. ...

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Age discrimination is a problem in France more than in Germany or other countries in Europe. A person over 55 is half as likely as younger people to be hired by companies. This makes raising the pension age from 62 to 64 much harder for the government. In the US people are working for much longer.

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Us efforts led by Piedmont Lithium in North Carolina to build supplies for the lithium needed in electric vehicle batteries. The effort to get the first US big new lithium mine into operation is part of a broader effort to  build a US supply chain for the ultra light lithium metal that is highly conductive. In fact the modern lithium mining industry started in the rolling hills of the Piedmont region in North Carolina. At that time in the 1950's it was needed for nuclear bombs. Today China mines 10% of world's supplies. Abermarle Corp of the US based in Charlotte extracts lithium from mines in Australia and Chile which have large deposits of lithium. President Biden has signed an executive order calling for a review of supply chains for critical materials, including lithium as the US looks to build its own supply chains and become independent of supplies of metals from China. The lack of such supplies has become a strategic vulnerability for the US.  The growth of the electric vehicle industry and the efforts to reduce climate change emissions means higher demand for lithium. ...