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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

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Morgenson cites Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics in London, about why the $26 billion mortgage settlement between the state attorneys general, the U.S. government and the large U.S. banks is unlikely to make much difference to the foreclosure problems in the housing market. The agreement provides for reducing principal by $17 billion over 3 years for homeowners under water. Diggle points out that $17 billion is a drop compared to what is needed, because 11 million homeowners are now under water on their loans to the amount of $700 billion. The $17 billion is a mere 2.4% of the negative equity of $700 billion.

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The newer generation of SUV's after the 2008 crisis for Detroit automakers. Comparison of the features of the newer vehicles from Chrysler, Ford and GM compared to the older vehicles. Fuel efficiency has increased, but is it enough to meet a change in customer preferences in the face of higher fuel prices in 2011-2012.

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Will Detroit automakers be able to respond to a change in consumer preferences and a shift to cars from SUV's and light trucks? Gasoline prices are expected to rise significantly in 2011, and could approach $4 a gallon. The Detroit carmakers are better prepared now than in 2008. The question is are they prepared enough considering that there was a renewed emphasis on light trucks and SUV's in the lineup of Detroit carmakers in 2010, and compared to Asian competitors in the market whose focus is still on cars. To rebound to profitability GM and Ford took advantage of a pickup in SUV and light truck sales. Chrysler benefitted from a revamped Jeep Cherokee. All three Detroit carmakers sold more light trucks and SUV's than cars in 2010, and GM's car sales went down in 2010. By comparison Toyota and Honda sold more cars than SUV's and light trucks in 2010, and Hyundai does not make any light trucks. Toyota brand US sales head, Bob Carter, says as vehicles are becoming more fuel efficient across all sizes he does not expect the impact to be as dramatic as in 2008. The impact of fuel prices is becoming evident at some Toyota dealerships where sales of Prius vehicles are up significantly. In 2007 before a gas price surge SUV and truck sales were at 53% in the US market, they were down to 47% in 2009, and are now back up to 50%....

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Ros Douthat sees the crisis only putting things more in the hands of the same elites that got us into the mess in the first place. The mess with an out of control financial sector which began under Treasury Secretary Rubin, is now being handled by his proteges Summers and Geithner. The lack of any new solutions and the continuation of the "too big to fail" era, says Douthat.

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This Journal editorial says both Hollande and Sarkozy fail to address the issue of competitiveness in the French economy. Much of the election campaign in April 2012 has focussed on taxes on higher incomes and too little on measures that would improve competitiveness. Some of the action taken in recent years such as raising the retirement age to 62 from 60 are being opposed by Hollande, which gives the electon a fairy tale quality says the Journal.

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Participation by the Democratic Left party led by Fotis Kouvelis is necessary to form a stable government. Kovelis says the harshest austerity measures such as the demand to cut the minimum wage would have to be revoked in a new platform for New Democracy, Pasok Socialist party, and the Democratic Left. The timetable for Greece to meet budget deficit targets would also need to be extended. This comes as the three parties negotiate terms for a new government led by Antonis Samaras.

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The U.S. FDIC voted on March 29, 2011, to propose new rules that will require banks to hold at least 5% of the credit risk on securities backed by mortgages. During the mortgage crisis banks were able to sell packages of risky mortgages to investors without having some stake in the loans, leading to speculative behaviours. This proposal was mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act and was voted unanimously at the FDIC. Because the proposal does not apply to securities carrying a government guarantee, which is 90% of the market today, this will not have an immediate impact. Some mortgages are excluded- under one proposal mortgages where a borrower puts a 20% down payment would be excluded, and borrowers would have to meet an income threshold, and be current on all loans. The proposal is a joint effort of the FDIC, and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The idea is to have securitization to occur in an environment where the issuers of securities backed by mortgages have some skin in the game. Securities experts commented favorably on the rule and the proposals. The presence of such a rule would clearly have changed the behaviour of mortgage securities issuers in the U.S. 2008 subprime financial crisis....

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This WSJ editorial says AFL-CIO union leader Trumka's questions about the Lew nomination at Treasury are appropriate even though they come 2 years later. The questions relate to clauses in bank contracts that allow accelerated vesting of equity awards for executives who may be likely to join the government- looking towards favorable treatment of the banks by these executives that join the government. In this case it is Citicorp where Treasury Secretary Lew worked before becoming Treasury Secretary. The original Lew employment contract with Citicorp had a bonus guarantee if Lew left the bank for a "high level position with the United States government or regulatory body." The revolving door has a pernicious effect on America's regulatory system especially for financial markets and bank regulation by permitting behavious that would otherwise be discouraged or penalized.

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Russia raises interest rates by 6.5% to 17% on Dec. 15, 2014, as Brent crude prices fall below $60 and pressure on the ruble increases. Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2015 puts pressure on emerging market currencies, adding to pressure on the ruble. All emerging market currencies, the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lira, also come under pressure as money flows out of emerging markets in a repeat of the situation in January 2014.