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This report in WSJ looks at the unanimous vote in the House of Representatives delisting hundreds of Chinese companies trading on U.S. stock exchanges. The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by unanimous voice vote in the House of Representatives after a similar vote in the Senate in May, and will be signed into law by president Trump. The law says foreign companies should be delisted if they fail to comply with U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board regulatory agency's financial audits for 3 years in a row. The basis of the law is that all companies should be equally treated and required to meet U.S. regulatory standards to be listed. It also ensures safety for investors who may be defrauded of their money investing in companies that have not met such audit requirements. Wirecard in Germany and some Chinese companies have failed in the past because of lax overseas standards. This gives three years for the Chinese companies to prepare. This report also points out that the MSCI Index has 43% Chinese companies even more than before. American investors can still buy these stocks on the Hong Kong exchanges so that if fairness and investor protection should prevail American investors have to think and act along the same lines. China is also decoupling from the U.S. to some extent and pushing to have its companies listed on the Hong Kong Shanghai and  Shenzen stock exchanges. For these reasons the access to global capital is not likely to be affected by this law particularly with the behaviour of major American institutional investors. China is providing incentives to these investors even though it did not do so in the past creating another hurdle to the goal of creating a level playing field in regulatory requirements stock for all companies listed on American exchanges and safety for investors.  ...

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A 2024 Study by the International Trade Commission predicted that a 25% tariff on imports would reduce imports by almost 75 percent while increasing average prices in the US by about 5 percent.  As US companies have about half of the US auto market this would mean US auto manufacturers now have access to an additional 37 percent of the market by investing in auto plants in the US. US steel and aluminium plants will get additional investment to build these cars in the US. There is nothing new about this the US makers built plants in China. Germans, Japanese and Koreans took the US for stupid by keeping US cars out of their markets and thinking this could go on while by destroying US manufacturing it was  destroying America's middle class. It also gives the Germans BMW and VW, Subaru, the Japanese Toyota and Honda, Nissan, the South Koreans Kia and Hyundai, Chinese makers of EV's the option to Make in the USA and build plants invest in US manufacturing.  ...

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Greg Ip of the WSj points out that Britain is in a weaker position to tackle Brexit than it was when Boris Johnson called for supporting the Yes vote to Leave the EU three years ago in the referendum. Business investment is lower than France, Germany and even Italy. And today protectionism, nationalism, hostility to globalization mean that its not so easy to increase exports by signing free trade agreements with other nations. Even a treaty with a friendly Trump administration  is not certain as Mr. Trump favors looking at how he can get the best deal and reverse any advantages of other trading nations, Britain being no exception. A trade agreement with the U.S. could mean the U.S. barring Britain from signing one with China as a condition of Mr. Trump. Greg Ip also points out that it was precisely joining the EU that helped Britain catch up with German and French standards of living after a period of low growth, inflation, and balance of payments crises in the 1970's. Joining the European Economic Community was as prime minister Heath stated would " enable us to be more efficient and more competitive in gaining more markets not only in Europe but in the rest of the world."   ...

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Krugman reflects on the discontent in Europe reflected in anti-EU opinion at the time of the elections to the European parliament in 2014.

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In an essay published on March 16, 2012, in Seeking Truth, the Communist party's main ideological publication, Xi Jinping cited the importance of consensus decisionmaking in the Chinese leadership now and in the future. "All decisions on major undertakings must adhere to the Party's principle of democratic centralism... They can't be decided by an individual or a small group of people... but should be decided according to collective wisdom and strict procedure." The efforts of Bo Xilai, the Communist leader in Chongqing, were seen as "playing to the crowd." By reviving Mao theory and advocating policies which would mean more participation by the state in the economy, Xilai was moving in the opposite direction of a World Bank-DRC Report on the Chinese economy- supported by the next premier Li Keqiang- that calls for less dominantt role of the state owned companies in the economy. Bo Xilai recently resigned as party head in that province. The essay is based on a speech on March 1 by Xi Jinping at the Central Party School, the Communist party's leading think tank. Xi said "if you crave to be ostentatious, to play to the crowd, and seek personal gains and high office, and if you don't aim for higher goals, it is not only difficult to push forward the work of the Party and the people, but also damages the Party's image, lets people down, and makes them lose faith in us." This sets the tone for consensus leadership in China, based on collective wisdom and careful thinking, into the next generation....

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Ed Finn, president of Barron's for 19 years from 1998 has observed the economy for decades and comes to the conclusion that the 2007-2008 banking crisis from Reagan style deregulation was the one principal factor the US economy and the people suffered from a lost decade that was extended to 15 years by the pandemic. This has ended under president Biden says Finn, with he says about 10% growth in S&P 500 every year since 2020 and expects growth at that rate for another 4 years under president Biden. What this says about ultra low interest rates is that it was bad for America and a result of the need for tackling the 2009 financial crisis. Interest rates need to be at the moderate level of about 4-5%, the level today, where savers are rewarded, retirees are rewarded, bondholders are rewarded, and excessive risk taking is penalized, says Finn. Moderate interest rates help mortgage holders and new companies start businesses. In short says Finn- this is the way a economy should be run. We were sold the idea of ultra low interest rates because no one wanted to talk about the bad effects of Reagan style deregulation that inevitably lead to lack of the financial oversight of regulatory authorites. Financial oversight by regulatory authorites needed for modern economies to run, whether this is the US, India, China, or any large European economy, it is an essential condition for stable long term growth that serves the needs of the people of every major economy in the world. The idea must be cast aside that economic policy must be determined by the swings in sentiment  every few decades in one direction to too little government from to too much government or reverse, and be determined by essential truths of how a sound and good economy is run. As the US enters 2024 what Powell a Republican, and Biden a Democrat, and the bipartisan group of Senators in the US Congress are saying is that we get it, and are with single minded determination making it happen. ...

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Rappaport of the NYT asks how it is possible that the U.S. Treasury is critical of the EU Commission's ruling that Apple pay back $13 billion in taxes because of its low tax rate of .005% in Europe, when Treasury is strongly critical of tax avoidance. The negligible tax by Ireland, base of Apple operations, is seen as a state subsidy not available to competitors. It also, as the EU Commission says, does not correspond to economic reality because the revenues are mostly made outside Ireland. An arrangement that is basically a strategy of tax avoidance. Today the leading candidates for president, Trump and Clinton, the major parties, and Congress, all are critical of tax avoidance strategies which deprive Treasury of much needed revenues. Restoring upward mobility is a priority today and programs to provide tution free access to public colleges, healthcare access, and infrastructure development, require public funding. Then why is the U.S.Treasury critical of the EU ruling? It is because Treasury sees this as money that should be coming to Treasury not the EU. However Treasury has failed to make this clear. The Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition's Clark Gascoigne, calls it very ironic. And other experts say the money would not be coming to the U.S. anyway unless a low tax rate induces Apple to repatriate profits to the U.S. One expert calls it hypocritical. Senator Schumer says he agrees with Paul Ryan that tax legislation for a low tax rate for repatriation of profits back to the U.S. should be the next step, so that an infrastructure fund can be setup. Senator Levin and transparency advocates sees the EU action as normal and to be expected, as the anti-establishment sentiment today comes from such dealings that create the impression that the system is rigged in favor of some corporations. ...

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How German political leaders view the Euro currency and the European Union. German history and the need for fiscal discipline and the European Union. The constant between Chancellors Adenauer, Kohl and Merkel- a sense of European unity as part of the fabric of the new Germany. A desire to find a way through the sovereign debt crisis of 2010-2012, by introducing fiscal discipline into the structural framework and preserving the hard won gains for the Euro currency and the European Union.

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A former prime minister of Poland for 7 years, Donald Tusk, becomes the president of the European Council in 2014.

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Europe has something that is just as bad as subprime mortgages that have troubled the US, its the bad debt of European banks to Eastern European emerging market countries. This plus the high indebtedness of companies in Western Europe is creating serious problems for the economies of western Europe. In addition to the property bubble in Ireland, the UK and Spain, Germany is facing falling demand for its exports as a result of the steep descent of the global economy, especially China. As a result of all this the EU is facing a problem of the magnitude of that faced by the US, if not worse. In much of Europe especially in Germany and the Eastern European countries what generates growth and jobs is exports. Three quarters of the cars made in Germany are exported, and many of the parts used in BMW's and VW's come from plants in the eastern european countries, some form Slovakia, Poland and from plants elsewhere in Eastern Europe. With the collapse of some Eastern European economies and serious problems in others these markets are shrinking. The same thing is happening to exports from Eastern European countries where factories there manufacturing goods for Western Europe are closing. And banks in the western European economies like UniCredit Group of Italy, Germany's Commerzbank, and Belgium's KBC Group have large loans outstanding in the eastern European countries to companies and consumers. And some of these countries have run up huge current account deficits. Bulgaria the deficit is 20% of GDP. Increasing the risk and hitting consumers in the east is that banks issued low rate mortgages and other laons in euros and swiss francs. With the Hungarian forint, Romanian leu, and other weaker currencies seeing big drops, the cost of repaying these loans has jumped. Instead of consumers being overstretched from overspending as in the USA, or facing foreclosures, these consumers are facing huge loan repayment problems from borrowing in other currencies. Morgan Stanley says more than half of the private debt in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria is in foreign currency. And customers in Eastern European countries owe foreign banks loans equal to one third of their combined GDP, according to the Bank of Internatonal Settlements. A lot of these loans could end up turning into bad debt if the economies of Eastern Europe deteriorate further as consumers there pull back, factories close and job losses mount, and currency values drop even more. This would create huge problems for Western European banks and restrict lending in Western Europe as these banks make fewer loans creating more problems for Western European economies, in the same manner as ricotcheting effects have done in the USA....

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Xi Jinping visits a dairy farm in Ireland and kicks a ball at a Gaelic football game. A new view of the Chinese leader up close in contacts with people in Ireland. Ireland takes on the presidency of the EU in 2013.

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China's new leader Xi Jinping and the prospects for U.S. and European business. Little is known of how Xi will change things except for his personal style during his visit to Iowa during the U.S. trip.

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Morse's reasoning and figures for a fall in oil prices by the end of this year and eventually settling down in the $90 price range? On the supply side he sees the OPEC decision to last year withhold oil production increases and this year's decision to put more oil on the market putting an additional 1.2 million barrels a day on the supply side. About 500,000 barrels a day are added to this from Iraq as security improves in Iraq to make this 1.7 million barrels a day. And refined product with refining capacity for the heavier crude has increased creating more competition among refiners leading to refined product increases lagging behind crude price increases. Add to this the large investments in the middle east and especially in Saudi Arabia to increase production, also in places like Nigeria and Angola, says Morse. On ther demand side he sees an astonishing decline of as much as 900,000 barrels a day year over year from 2008 over 2007 in the USA as fuel conservation is kicking in. On this score he sees a decline in oil price even if this decline had not happened in the USA. (From the video interview). This underscores the importance of everything else that is happening. He sees demand in China declining after the Olympics. The Chinese economy will slow as the Indian economy is already doing and oil imports will decline for China. At this point demand from India, China and other developing countries says Morse is increasing at 1 million barrels a day year over year and will now head downward. A couple of points are relevant in this context. One is that credit contraction in one study by University of Chicago economist Anil Kashyap is expected to be $1 trillion, in recent BW report on the economic situation and banks lending. With such a big impact industrial production by the end of this year and into 2009 will be severely impacted, especially as other countries in the EU and Asia are affected. This plus the dramatic nature of the shift to smaller cars as companies like Ford and its CEO Alan Mulaly vow to transform their production by 2009 to smaller cars is sure to bring further declines in demand. See recent statements by Mulaly and Ford. Morse's credentials show that he brings experience un teaching monetary policy at Princeton, as well as experience going back to being Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for international energy policy in the Carter administration , cofounder of consultants PFC Energy and publisher of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, following the petroleum industry for many years. He has in the past predicted the emergence of Russia as a dominant oil supplier rivalling Saudi Arabia, and predicted the oil price increases based on fundamentals. So as he says the oil price has always been affected by fundamentals, that being the reason for the oil price increases in the last few years and now the moderating influences that reverse someof these oil price increases in the coming year and continue to exercize that moderating effect in coming years. ...

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NATO's new guiding document and security concept now includes China for the first time as a shared security challenge. In the past there were concerns about China yet Germany and France continued economic engagement with China as before. The clearly worded statement by Xi Jinping and Putin expressing strong disapproval of a world in which the US and the EU play a prominent leadership role, made just before Russia launched its attack on Ukraine, has changed the sentiment in Europe. It is now becoming clear to Germany that the world has changed.Under Merkel Germany expanded trade ties with Russia on energy and with China as a major trading partner. The first steps are now being taken to decouple the trading relationship with China and restructure Germany's trade away from China towards other parts of the world including India, Vietnam and other Asian countries. Mr Scholz pointed to this needed shift during the Trade Fair in Hannover. As part of this shift NATO now sees cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners Australia, Japan, and South Korea and India essential for meeting the challenge of Russia today and of China over the long term. The NATO document says about China that "its stated ambitions and coercive policies, challenge our interests, security and values." Here are some of the ways the world has changed today. There are new administrations and newly elected leaders in the US, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. The new administrations are led by leaders in Japan and South Korea that are keen on working hand in hand with the US to meet the challenge from China. In the US president Biden seems determined to build up America's strength to meet any challenges China can pose. In Germany the administration is run by the SPD socialists with the Greens and the Free Democrats coalition. The Greens led by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock have taken a strong position to face up to Russia's invasion in Ukraine, and Mr. Scholz is following step by step and has distanced himself from old SPD and CDU policies of  Angela Merkel of close commercial ties with Russia and China.  Indian prime minster Modi was a close partner at the G7 conference in Munich, Germany. The leaders of Japan and South Korea attended the NATO summit in Madrid and met with president Biden as shown here.   ...

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Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, that he wanted to see more power reside in the European Parliament, that democracy was consistent with integration. German chancellor Merkel says the European Commission should "act more like a government with all the powers," and the European Parliament should become more important than national parliaments. This is the vision of Europe that leaders are supporting in 2012. Monti gave as one major reason for a European governing entity- national governments with their own local interests had created the economic trouble Europe faces today, with Greece being a textbook example of how everything can go wrong. Germany and France, he says relaxed the fiscal discipline rules of the Stability and Growth Pact, and this could happen again.

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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Huaxi, Jiangsu province, a few hours car ride northwest of Shanghai, is a village of 2000 residents. It has built a 74 story skyscraper, with a concert hall and a revolving restaurant. The village residents have joint ownership through Jiangsu Huaxi Corporation with the companies 2009 report claiming it has investments in businesses that return 50 billion renminbi or $7.7 billion in income. About 25,000 workers, mostly migrant workers, are said to be employed by the village. These workers work and live in an area outside the village. The whole story appears to be more that a bit bizarre. There is no other information on where this money is coming from and who is managing it. If anything this kind of story suggests how inflated and bizarre the property market in China has become. Even the word bubble may be understating what is happening. A massive misallocation of capital is taking place with the lack of transparency and corruption making this possible, which will very likely affect long term development....

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A riverside project on the banks of the Sabarmati in Ahmedabad gives the city of 10 million a new look. The project is similar to ones on the Thames in London and Seine in Paris bringing new park space and areas for of public space for a rapidly growing city. Guardian Cities is looking at 15 new cities with population growing to exceed 10 million by 2035- from Tehran, Iran, to Luanda, Mozambique, Hyderabad, India, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Surat, India, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Chengdu, China, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The way this was done was to develop a self financing model. This was the work of architect Bimal Patel who proposed selling 14% of riverfront land of 200 hectares to recover costs. The Sabarmati Riverfront Development Corporation spent 161 million dollars to build new housing for 11,000 displaced families who worked in squatter type housing on the riverbanks as domestic workers, clothes washers. The riverbed had become for decades a dumping ground for city waste. The goals were to provide access for public to the river front and clean up the water with water treatment plants. Bimal Patel calls the project one of three generations as  will take another three years for new water treatment plants. The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation bears the cost of about $220 million. The famous Sabarmati Ashram of Mahatma Gandhi lies along this riverfront and it gives this sacred space in India's history, the home of Mahatma Gandhi for many years in the struggle for independence, a healthier, brightened space along the river. ...

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China's state run companies constitute about 45% of China's economy, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Commission. This includes banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petrochemical Corp. or Sinopec Group, and China Mobile.

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This briefing in the Economist says China now faces a difficult transition to its next phase of development, in which the government is trying to change the model used by Deng Xiaoping of export led development to a consumption based economy. That model produced spectacular results between 2000 and 2015 when the middle class went up from 5% of the population to 25% of the population, as measured by people living on more than $20 a day in 2011 $ purchasing parity, as reported by IMF, EIU. The problem China faces is can this development stall if it fails to tackle problems in the next phase, with an aspiring group behind the new middle class left behind. Recent jump in the stock markets volatility, devaluing of the currency, and confusing signals sent by the government have hurt its credibility. Demographic issues with an aging population, the destruction of the environment with rampant development, and how to manage this next phase of development with respect for the constitution and the rule of law replacing the high corruption levels, are serious challenges. Experts say it will be difficult to manage a transition to the next phase of development without some degree of democratization. The rise of the internet and the social media have created more avenues for expression, which gives the government some guage of public opinion, especially in tackling pollution, mismanagement, and other problems. The government sees the need to manage things carefully, with rising unemployment posing a problem as growth slows and the government closes down inefficient manufacturing facilities. ...