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As Keith Bradsher of the NYT points out in this report too much may be made of the tariffs of 25% imposed by president Trump on steel imports. The effect Bradsher says on China is trivial because China imports make up a fraction of 1% or 0.1% of China's production, and only 2% of American steel imports. Most of China's aluminium is made into products such as auto parts and solar panel frames, and little of it is imported as raw metal. On the day the tariffs were announced, China's top economic official Liu He met with economic officials of the Trump administration and China's reaction was cautious and reflected the fact mentioned b.y Trump about its huge trade surplus with the U.S. of $375 billion in 2017. China's officials stated "that its dialogue with the U.S. was very useful, constructive, and helpful."  China's principal goals are first to preserve its broader trading relationship with the U.S. which gives it th $375 billion trade surplus for 2017 and creates millions of jobs in China, and to preserve its ability to invest in the U.S.  This has given China access to American technology and manufacturing expertise that would be difficult to develop independently. The Trump administration is meanwhile working with senior members of Congress to come up with new rules for tighter scrutiny of Chinese investments in the U.S. as a new phase of competition in technology takes place between China and the U.S.  ...

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The cost of electric and hybrid cars, with the added factor of electricity shortages, make 'green cars' a rare sight on Indian roads. The Prius in India costs $40,000. Only 12,000 battery powered scooters and motorcycles were sold in 2010. With the right economics and convenience the situation could change. About 1 million compressed natural gas vehicles are on Indian roads, according to Asian NGV. This is because CNG vehicles are similiar in price to gasoline vehicles and the switch to CNG is inexpensive for regular vehicles.

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Matthew Curtin reminds readers about a couple of facts about Germany. There has been a leftward movement of the Christian Democrats which has supported social protections in the global financial crisis. During the crisis collapsing exports that hit Germany hard. The Free Democrats as a result are the only party campaigning for reforms and lower taxes. The Christian Democrats think some of the Free Democrats plans are unrealistic. There is heavy public questioning of free market economics, and the reason the Social Democrats did so badly with only 23% of the vote is that it supported pro market reforms and lost some of its working class base. As the work subsidies expire in 2010 unemployment could hit 11%. So he says don't expect much in the way of reforms just because the Free Democrats got 15% of the vote and are in the coalition with Merkel.

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Nouri al-Maliki, prime minister of Iraq, on his vision for Iraq after the American withdrawal in 2011. Iraq's role as one of many democratic countries in a new Middle East and a new Arab region. He sees combining and expanding the powers of the provinces, while preserving unity of Iraq, as a way around the demands for more autonomy in the provinces. He also sees a policy in which Iraq turns down foreign interference in Iraq as the best way moving forward. He sees a building boom in Baghdad, as a millon homes are built for low income families and the country draws foreign investment.

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A seven month long negotiation for the government of Greece with representatives of the EU, the IMF and the ECB is completed in March 2014. A series of structural growth oriented reforms are part of the agreement. Part of the agreement focusses on returning some of the 2.9 billion euro surplus to the Greek people hit hardest in the crisis, a top priority for the government of premier Samaras. This includes homeless with 20 million euros, paying 2.8 billion in debts to suppliers in the private sector, 1 billion euros more than budgeted. 1 billion euros will be used to reduce Greece's debt. In total 500 million euros will go to relief for ordinary Greeks, including members of the police and security forces on low salaries. Social security contributions paid by employers and workers will be reduced by 3.9 percentage points, a step taken to boost wages. The agreement will lead to release of 10 billion euros in funds from the troika of EU,IMF and ECB. European parliament and local elections are in May and this has given the Samaras government a better position to state its case for helping austerity weary Greek citizens....

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A shocking fact about oversupply in one crucial industry. Automakers worldwide have the industry capacity to make 94 million vehicles. According to researcher CSM Worldwide the current sales in late 2008 reflects demand for 60 million vehicles worldwide. This is about 34 million extra vehicles and represents about 100 plants. Toyota has already cut production in Japan by 27% in November, the biggest cuts seen at Toyota in 30 years. The numbers for 2009 will reflect a deepening downturn from higher unemployment and lower spending. Not all of this capacity wil be cut as automakers will look for a rebound as customers replace aging vehicles, but as sales decline in Russia, China and emerging markets and in the USA and Europe, some consolidation will take place and many plants will have to close in the US, China, Portugal, Italy and Spain.

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Lipton, Austin and LaFraniere of the NYT tell the story of how the serious differences between the prime contractor for the federal healthcare website, CGI Federal, and the Obama administration officials handling the website, evolved into conflicts that could not be resolved. This led to the flawed website being rolled out on schedule ignoring serious problems with the website. The detailed report comes after interviews with Obama administration officials and specialists who worked on the project and looking into government and contractor documents. A month ago in October 2013 the healthcare website for the Obama healthcare law was up only 42% of the time with 10 hour failures happening frequently. Basic steps for the functioning of website backup systems in case there is a failure, testing to ensure negligible or no outages, were not secured. The government officials responsible for the rollout did not have the capabilities to handle such a project. Henry Chao, who worked in the Medicare agency for 19 years was left to oversee day to day questions for the website HealthCare.gov, but lacked a formal background in software engineering and no authority to make the decisions needed. The $630 million project was setup inside the Medicare Agency, instead of a separate agency specially setup for this project and staffed with the appropriate skills as originally proposed. Five different lower level government officials made decisions without the authority needed and no one person with the necessary skills was given overall responsibility and decisionmaking. A series of missteps were allowed to take place- settting many added requirements that made it difficult for contractors to focus on basic steps and get them right, use of the MarkLogic database system instead of systems from IBM or Oracle against the advice of contractors, multiple contractors without a way to control the overall project, shifting requirements from the government and bureaucratic delays for resolving basic issues such as use of social security numbers, all worked to create delays. With the delays came a deterioration of relations between Obama administration officials and the contractors. The government officials response was to stick to the deadline of Oct. 1 rollout, with Michelle Snyder, chief operating officer of Medicare agency telling people she would fire the contractor if possible. In the end no one took responsibility for a safe reliable rollout, even though the system failed a test of 500 users in late September and was down half the time in mid-October. President Obama or his advisors were either not kept fully informed, or did not grasp the significance of the collapse in relations between contractors and the government and a project out of control. His aloof distanced approach was not an asset in such matters- saying about the rollout and use of the website: "this is real simple" like using the Kayak website for travel bookings- and he saw no need to take action leading to the major failure for the administration that followed....

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Jack Ma tells employees in an email: "At 48, I am no longer 'young' for the internet business. The next generation of Alibaba people are beter equipped to manage an internet ecosystem like ours. I believe they understand the future better than I do." Ma plans to give up the CEO role May 10, 2013, and let other managers inside the company run Alibaba. Alibaba runs the Taobao and Tmall shopping sites. Recent investments by Alibaba have focussed on improving its logistics system. Management changes include improving efficiency and giving more independence to managers to run their units.

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French prime minister Edouard Philippe says that France will meet the 3% of GDP deficit target in 2017 and this will require restraint in spending. Over the 5 year term of president Macron France will cut spending by 3% of GDP. The new government still plans to meet investment and tax cuts that were planned, including a $50 billion euro investment program. Over the 5 year term taxes will decline by 1% of GDP, said Philippe. 

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The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this. ...

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PFC Energy has estimated the price of oil that would be required by OPEC countries to support higher public spending after the political unrest in these countries. The estimate is based on the minimum Brent crude price an OPEC country needs to balance its current account. This price supports the higher social spending needed. For Saudi Arabia that price was about $28 in 2005, $64 in 2010, and could reach $75 in 2012. PFC Energy says OPEC will cut output if prices fall below $90, because of higher social spending needs after the democracy movements in Arab countries.

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How to retain high performing younger teachers in classrooms in the face of budget cuts.

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Who is Nandalal Weerasinghe? This report in The Daily News gives some idea about the man chosen to help Sri Lanka negotiate a deal with the IMF.  Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe was an alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund before being appointed deputy governor of the Ceylon Central Bank in 2012. Before this he managed several macroeconomic departments at the central bank and was assistant governor of the central bank from 2007 to 2009, He has spent the large part of his career in economic positions at the Central Bank of Ceylon after getting his PhD in economics from the Australian National University. Weerasinghe is the leading expert in macroeconomics from Sri Lanka who has IMF experience. He says "things will get worse before they get better." He retired early from the central bank with a change in government in 2019. He was reappointed as Sri Lanka faced a debt crisis in March 2022 following the two year long pandemic, and the Ukraine war in 2022 that was bad for emerging market economies. Weerasinghe says about the crisis facing Sri Lanka- Recent decisons followed Modern Monetary Theory. This has dire consequences. In recent times the savings brought about by the low tax and interest rate regime passed savings on to the corporate sector and took away spending power from savers and pensioners. Surging inflation made things even worse for the lower income middle class and older parts of society. Years of accumulated debt have brought Ceylon to this point. In Ceylon one is seeing the effects of savings being passed on to the corporate sector in an economy dependent on tourism and remittances from overseas workers, both hit by the two year long pandemic. This is part of  a trend that has hurt emerging market economies from Argentina and Pakistan which also turned to the IMF to Turkey.  In other countries in the European Union savings also passed on to the corporate sector with low tax and low interest rate regime. With high inflation resulting in the cost of living crisis seen today in France and Germany. This type of policy that Weerasinghe calls 'Modern Monetary Theory' is not healthy for the European Union and the US, as these policies led to the neglect of much needed and vital investments in infrastructure, health and education. Only now are these effects being corrected by new administrations of Biden in the US and Scholz in Germany, with Biden's 2 trillion plan for workers and families, and a similar plan from chancellor Scholz. With this come needed investments to tackle climate change, all of which was neglected before. India has taken a different approach. By following good governance, managing vaccination effectively during the pandemic, social emphasis for food, water, electricity, cooking gas, medicine for the vast population of 1.2 billion, and a Master plan for building Made in India manufacturing,  India has avoided such crises and maintained strong economic growth. In this sense it is a model for South Asian, South East Asian, African, and Latin American emerging market economies that face a difficult situation today. Good governance is critical.   ...

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Faces of the U.S. unemployment, foreclosure and housing crisis in Hagerstown, Maryland, in 2011.

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Stanley Fischer, former head of the Bank of Israel, is the likely candidate for vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2014. Fischer is author of a 1977 paper in which he supported an activist central bank monetary policy to tackle economic downturns. As deputy director of the IMF he helped build the "Washington Consensus," which supported flexible exchange rates, free capital flows and balanced budgets. The IMF austerity policies came under much criticism in S. Korea, other Asian countries, Russia, and Latin America during this period, especially high interest rates and sharp spending cuts during downturns. He is a former MIT professor and a dual citizen of Israel and the U.S., born in Zambia (Northern Rhodesia).