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Michael Boskin, the elder president Bush's chairman of the Council of Economc Advisors was instrumental in setting up the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Here he points to the dire need to open up trade between India and Pakistan. Trade today between the two countries is $2.7 billion. Under trade models Boskin says the trade could be 20 times larger, about $50 billion. This would increase benefits and wages in both countries and is badly needed and long overdue.

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Chrysler looks the weakest of the big three US automakers. Now that Daimler is out of the picture Chrysler depends on Cerberus for support and financing. And not much of this is there because Cerberus is having problems of its own. The GMAC investment of $12 billion for Cerberus has soured because of subprime loan losses in GMAC. All this is going on while Chrysler looks more like a company in disarray and Daimler does'nt appear to have left it in any good condition, considering that Cerberus finished its acquiistion of Chrysler only 4 months ago, and only now are executives like Mr Nardelli and Jim Press getting familiar with the company, its people and its products. Chrysler will have to come up with new fuel saving technologies but how is it going to fund this is losses in 2008 don't look much better than 2007 as is now expected. With a 15.5 million car year as estimated by industry experts Chrysler looks to lose more sales. Nardelli was shocked to learn that Chrysler was running its plants based on a forecast of 17 million sales in 2008 which goes to show that things are in disarray at Chrsler. The models which lost money on each car sold Pacifica, Magnum and Crossfire should have been discontinued by Daimler a long time ago, but this decision was reached only recently. And a program that was supposed to save $250 million was actually saving only $1 million in parts executives at Chrysler found. Its a difficult environment for engineers to work in especially when on one hand the direction is to improve quality and on the other hand to reduce cost, all in an environment in which no major new investment funding is seen fromCerberus or other sources and the sales outlook doesn't look good at all with competition well financed or better financed and with greater resources....

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China's Finance Ministry is having a difficult time controlling local governments using local government financing vehicles to invest in more infrastructure, airports roads and subways. One such city is Wuhan which plans six subway lines, three bridges over the Yangste river and a new airport. Much of the money comes from land sales. The Finance Ministry in a 2013 report pointed to the unreliability of land sales for future borrowing as the property market is slowing, and because it is highly unpopular to requisition land for land sales. This matters because the IMF says debt is growing faster in China than when Japan, South Korea and the U.S. fell into deep recessions at different times between the late 1980's and 2009. Local government debt accounts for one fourth of the increase in China's domestic debt since 2008. New rules by China's bond agency in Dec. 2014 prevents investors from using low grade debt to borrow cash. In the past local governments found a way around the central governments effort to curb growth of debt by restructuring the local government vehicles or some other way, as Wuhan has done. Wuhan Urban is the local government financing vehicle for Wuhan and its debt increased by 20% in 2013. Wuhan's mayor, Tang Liangzhi, is pushing construction to the point where he is known as Mr. Dig, Dig. One reason for China's slowing growth below 6-7% is the need to control the growth of debt. Local government debt in China reached 36% of GDP in 2013, double the figure in 2008, and will increase to 52% of GDP in 2019, according to the IMF. And the increase is not proportionally delivering the same results as before. JP Morgan estimates that over 4 units of borrowing are needed in 2015 for every unit of investment, compared to less than 2 units of borrowing for every unit of investment in 2007. PRC Macro Advisors of Hong Kong says half of the borrowing by financing vehicles goes to pay interest on existing debt in 2014. There are 8000 such local government financing vehicles in China today each competing to build infrastructure in its neighborhood, in the case of Wuhan to build a computing back office for financial companies and as transportation hub, even though its uncertain whether this will be realized or not. The problem is that alternative investments as an opportunity cost are being neglected, the hospital not being built as China's population ages with underinvestment in health care, and the private company with better returns that is unable to find financing. A classic example of crowding out of better return investments as a glut of housing and road/bridge/ airport infrastructure gets built. The central government is wary but faced with slowing growth pushes problems down the road, what experts call a Japan syndrome....

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India's emissions rates up by 57% and China's by 34% in the past decade. U.S. contributes 25% of the world's greenhous gas emissions.

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Information about the supply of services to the oil industry, including engineering professionals, from supply services company Schlumberger. Investment in petroleum exploration and production is expected to be $178 billion, a 10% increase over $162 billion in 2004, according to an estimate by Schlumberger's CEO, Mr. Gould, from figures published by energy companies. Gould personally thinks it will be higher. Mr. Smith CEO of John Herold , an oil industry consulting firm said that one oil industry executive told an industry gathering that drilling one onshore well now costs $1.5 million compared to $800,000 15 months ago. So the oil industry is getting much less for its buck with skyrocketing costs of exploration. Saudi Arabia plans to invest $50 billion over the next 5 years to expand its petroleum industry. Minister Naimi said that energy project costs have gone up by about 60%, due to shortages of engineering professionals, and equipment. To get some sense of the shortage of experienced professionals consider the figures from the American Petroleum Institute API. The oil industry peaked with 860,000 jobs in 1982, then lost 500,000 jobs by 2000. "A lot of skilled people have either been laid off, or have retired from the industry in the last 18 years," says Schlumberger's Mr. Gould. "Recruiting and training their replacements takes time and requires a global approach." ...

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Currently Asian-Americans make up 62% of students at top high schools in New York. Mayor Blasio aims to give 20% of the seats to students who almost reach the qualifying scores on an entrance exam for Stuyvesant and seven other specialized high schools. Under Blasio's plan Discovery program for economically disadvantaged students would get 800 of the 4000 specialized high school seats for ninth graders in fall 2020 up from 250. 

Another view is presented by Parenting While Black organization of low income parents and children, who say that more important is to improve the quality of education for the city's 1.1 million students and start at the early grades. They see the high school debate for these 7 specialized schools as taking attention from the real problem to focus on s small sliver of students. The mass of students, the vast majority, they say are left to dangle in the wind.

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Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

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Patricia Kowsmann provides this picture of life in a town on Portugal's northern coast, Viana do Castelo, with a population of 87,000, as Portugal struggles to make a recovery. Viana do Castelo has shipyards and companies making metal bridges for highways. The money losing state owned shipyard was privatized and sold to Martifer SGPS SA to run till 2031. 600 workers at the shipyard were laid off. The new company plans to rehire 400 workers by 2016 but jobs will not be permanent. Companies making the bridges now sell to former Portuguese colonies of Angola, Mozambique, Brazil. 200,000 people have left the country to look for jobs or higer education, including the mayor's daughter in London. Exports are up and now make up 40% of Portugal's GDP, up from 27% in 2009. The economic growth is 0.9% in 2014, after declining 6% 2011-2013. Portugal accepted the last instalment of the bailout loan of 78 billion euros in 2014. It will auction 1.25 billion euros of bonds on July 22, 2015. Unemployment is now declining dropping to 14% from a high of 17%, and higher than the pre crisis level of 11%. Here in this coastal town the mayor Jose Maria Costa cut public employee salaries 15%, and also cut sports and cultural programs. Two food centers provide free lunch and dinner, and half of the 4000 children in school get subsidies for food and transport. A shipyard worker Antonio Gomes Barbosa 64, is one of the laid off workers. His son's architecture company closed and he left Portugal for Angola. Some of his co-workers now work at a shipyard in neighboring Spain....

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Rich calls Obama's speech for all its apparent thoughfulness and logic, a failure in its mission of coming up with a way to tackle Afghanistan and Pakistan. It did not grapple with the real issue and complexity of these places. He says the rigorous analysis failed and what Obama is ending up with is a too clever by half holding action which lacks credibility becuase the Karzai regime lacks credibility, and the American people have serious doubts of the wisdom of increased involvement. Worse it lacks acredible exit strategy for all the emphasis on early withdrawal. Making some calculations with Petraeus's field manual Rich comes up with a force of 586,000 that would be needed for a proper counterinsurgency in Afghnistan for its population of 28.4 million. But America still would have only less than one fourth of this number in the vast mountainous terrain of Afghnistan, especially when the government it is backing has seriously alienated its own people. So isn't it just as possible that McChrystal and Gates have made a serious error, that the surge that worked in Iraq was based on apeculiar topography that is absent here, which means even more troops not awithdrawal is likely a year from now? He points out that, as Fred Kaplan had pointed out in Slate, that the idea that the coaltiion partners are increasing their share of the burden is an illusion, as America's new share of allied troops with the surge will be 70% compared to 50% when the Bush administration left office. But what he finds most disingenuous is the idea that there will be no sacrifices in economic terms for America, that life can just go on like before, even as the cost of the war will shortchange urgent economic priorities at home and even gut alot of the domestic needs. This was missing in the Obama presentation....

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Joe Nocera visits two plants built by Gray Construction in N. Carolina. One is a Siemens plant in Charlotte, N.C., and the other is a Caterpillar plant in Winston-Salem. Both towns have community colleges that stress manufacturing skills. Forsyth Tech created a program working with Caterpillar to train its graduates in machining skills needed at the plant. The Caterpillar plant is huge at 850,000 square feet, and makes axles for mining trucks. The Siemens plant will make 280 ton gas turbines. Siemen's manager Richard Voorberg, tells Nocera the labor cost difference is not that much of a factor in highly skilled work, with shipping costs, and other efficiencies being more significant. Gray's backlog of 22 projects suggests a similiar conclusion. The problem is that the number of skilled workers needed in an highly automated plant with complex robotics is small. Caterpillar's plant will need about 500 workers, and the Siemens plant will need about 800 workers. This makes only a small dent in the enormous job losses of the last decade. And in N. Carolina the jobs lost in the furniture industry as the industry moved to China. Dow Chemical CEO, Andrew Liveris, points to the jobs created in the supply chain for every manufacturing job. And Ford Motor Company CEO, Mullaly, points to the innovation required in state of the art manufacturing, that creates sustainable advantage. The process of creating enough manufacturing jobs will take a long time, including shifts to new technologies and new products....

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Indian prime minister's speech in the Rajya Sabha, India's upper house of parliament presented the government's ideas behind the reforms in the agricultural farm laws. He made the point that the mandis for minimum support price or MSP will always be there, so that farmers looking for MSP would always be covered. "MSP tha, MSP hai, MSP rahega,"  his words in Hindi. Some of the main points are covered here in The Times of India. Many governments in India in the past have talked about reforming Indian agriculture. During the administration of Lyndon Johnson after famines and food shortages in India effort was made for the Green Revolution. Lal Bahadu Shastri, prime minister took up the work of the first development phase in 1965 to benefit Indian agriculture. The speech cited the work of Shastri for the Green Revolution that made India self sufficient in food grain production. India benefitted from American scientists mainly agronomist researcher Norman Borlaug. The prime minister cited the words of Manmohan Singh, Congress party prime minister preceding him, who had emphasized how important it was to bring changes to Indian agriculture. "Modi implemented what Manmohan said, You should be proud."   Manmohan Singh had said- "There are several rigidities in the whole market since the 1930's which prevent our farmers from selling their produce where they get the highest rate of return. It is our intention to remove all the handicaps that come in the way of India to become one large common market."  Other parts of the speech said about the new agriculture laws- "There are many laws. every law is amended in a few years. We are not static. Change is tradition. We should talk to the protesters, implement the changes. I will take the abuses. You take the benefit from the new laws. We can move ahead together... There are old people sitting in the cold, it is not right." The government has stated it will hold the new agriculture laws for 18 months and the Supreme Court has appointed a committee on the laws. In his speech Mr. Modi said that there was nobody to look after the small and marginal farmers, and asked who will speak for the 12 crores or 120 million marginal farmers who own less than 2 hectares of land.  In fact it was a call from these small and marginal farmers that led to Jawaharlal Nehru, son of a British trained lawyer Motilal Nehru, to join the struggle for Indian independence. This is shown in his autobiography written from jail in 1934-35.  At the time the British simply used the Indian police trained and run by the British Army to silence farm or agrarian unrest from small farmers. Nehru was asked in a phone call to come to one of the locations of the unrest during the early years. The bedrock of Gandhi's movement for independence was villages in which marginal farmers lived lives without making enough. When Vivekandanda talked about India's hundreds of millions living in poverty he was speaking of small farmers who then were a majority of the population of the country. Charan Singh, a former prime minister in 1970-80,  said that 68% of farmers were small and marginal farmers who owned less than 2 hectares of land. The government crop insurance scheme was changed to make it farmer friendly, PM Kisan scheme to empower the farmer. The Indian Rails initiative is intended to speed agricultural produce to locations throughout India taking produce from locations in southern India to places as far Kolkata. This is opening up new opportunities for farmers to increase incomes.   ...

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Epic Systems of Verona, Wisconsin, is one of the companies engaged in digitizing health records. It has helped develop records for 40 million patients in hospital systems such as Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, Kaiser Permanente, the Cleveland Clinic, and John Hopkins Medicine in Baltimore and the Weill Cornell Physicians Organization of New York. Epic provides the software, the IT systems, the training and support. Epic is one of the pioneers in this, having been in the business for 30 years. About 40% of primary care doctors in the U.S. and 25% of hospitals use electronic patient records. The Federal government has provided $2.7 billion in funding from $27 billion of Stimulus funds assigned for the purpose of conversion to electronic medical records. This is likely to speed up the conversion. Other providers are Cerner, Allscripts, Meditech, Siemens Healthcare, G.E. Healthcare, and IBM. Epic Systems is considered the defacto standard in the industry for medical schools and some of the major hospital systems in the country. New contracts are leading to a major expansion of Epic Systems which employs 5100 people. Epic plans to hire an additional 1000 people. Revenue for the privately owned company are estimated at $1.2 billion, a 45% increase over the prior year. Epic is expected to have 127 million patients under medical records by mid 2013. To get the feedback essential for such a large conversion, CEO Faulkner relies on feedback from 250,000 doctors who use the Epic systems software, and on nurses and doctors from Epic who visit customer's sites to see first hand how it works and what needs improvement. Judith Faulkner started Epic more than 30 years ago. A project for the Psychiatry department led to other projects after she graduated in computer science from the University of Wisconsin. Epic continues to attract programmers to Wisconsin by making the Epic campus a fun environment and a great place to work. ...

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Friedman reviews Acemoglu and Robinson's new book, "Why Nations Fail." Acemoglu says that nations fail when wealth and opportunities are concentrated in the hands of few people, that a condition for societies to succeed is to create opportunities for more people. For this to happen it is important to create inclusive political and economic institutions. This is an important insight, but for Western society this is an insight as old as Adam Smith when he pointed out the importance of this aspect of western societies after the feudal period in his "Wealth of Nations." For Smith it was the failure to create inclusive societies that led to the gradual unravelling of societies in the river valleys of the Yangste and the Ganges, in China and India, of increasing poverty and the gradual disappearance of what constituted the middle class in India and China. Chapter 8 titled "Of Wages and Labor" in the "Wealth of Nations" makes specific reference to this.

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Cars that will be seen at the Frankfurt auto show show the direction the industry is taking. Fuel saving technologies, hybrid engines for cars by BMW and Porsche better know for gas guzzling high performance engines. With environmental consciousness high in Europe the pressures to reduce auto emissions are building up in Germany and the rest of the EU. BMW will show concept car that has the higher ride of a sport utility and the hybrid engine running on gasoline and electricity. BMW is trying to change its image to become more in line with the environmental friendly that the German public requires. Mercedes Benz will show its new fuel saving technology and Prorsche will show a hybrid version of its Cayenne SUV. The other focus in Europe on coming up with smaller cars for sale in Asia and elsewhere, and for light driving in Europe. VW is coming up with a city car concept that cand be sold in Asia and also in Europe, it has a rear engine similiar to the VW Beetle and would come in different body styles that can be built for regional preferences but built off a single platform which is cost efficent to turn out....

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Indian prime minister Modi meets president Putin in Sochi, Russia. India is seeking to maintain its ties with Russia even as Russia seeks a new relationship with Pakistan including sales of military transport. Putin and Modi support a multi-polar world order in their discussions. India has 62% of defense imports from Russia in the last 5 years, as it shifts to a relationship of jointly developing arms systems and technologies, and shifting purchases to other countries. India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Russian support. Russia is also active in building Indian atomic energy plants.

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Timothy Rooks in DW.com points out rightly that it will be how well Macron grasps the opportunity to turnaround the economy within the EU that will make a difference. France needs some of the changes Macron is proposing because it has one of the largest state sectors of western economies, and private industry needs to be revitalized to generate the jobs to reduce youth unemployment. A cut in the corporate tax to 25% from 33% would be in line with Britain, Germany and other countries. Some cuts in spending 60 billion euros over 5 years, and 50 billion euro stimulus package. The wealth tax would be retained, and the 35 hour work week.  He has opposing views on 35 hour week but now will focus on flexibility on overtime, capping severance pay and investing in education, job training, other ways of reviving the labor markets to get hiring started again and cut into 25% unemployment for persons under age 25. He also plans to follow the German model of letting companies deal with unions at the local level, at the company level, not only at a national level. Close cooperation with Germany and the confidence of French industry will be a plus as he works to revive the French economy, with the conviction that this will also be a project to fulfill the hope of young people for jobs, and a way to reduce the number who have turned to extremist parties in France. ...

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Emma Tucker, chief editor of WSJ, interviews Argentina's new president Milei. Milei plans to overhaul the economy, as inflation surges even after a large devaluation of the peso. He was recently elected with 58% support, yet faces opposition from unions and the Peronist party who calld a one national strike this week. Argentines are fed up with inflation and the repeated financial crises, more than any other of the G-20 nations. Milei is pursuing a path of rapidly reducing the state intervention in the economy to calm down rampant inflation. 

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China's breakneck growth was enabled by housing construction, and coal in a way that created problems of climate change. Now China's largest housing developers Evergrande and Country Garden together have a staggering $500 billion in debt and in serious financial trouble in or near default. How will China's government respond? It let Evergrande who had defaulted on debt payments build 300,000 apartments last year, just to protect home buyers. Now it's founder Mr. Xu is taken in for questioning and "illegal crimes." Making sure that the apartments on which people made deposits are built would cost another $72 billion, says Nomura. Yet suppliers, painters, builders and brokers are owed another $390 billion, in one estimate. And foreign creditors are getting together for complicated restructurings. Evergrande had entered wealth management promising 8 or 9% returns and has stopped making payments. All this is affecting public confidence in the future and China's growth story. For decades China depended on housing construction for high growth rates. Now the process is unwinding with both in financial difficulties. This NYT report says that after Evergrande's default, Country Garden failed to make a payment on $200 billion in debt last week and has 400,000 apartments that it sold but has not finished building. ...

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Jens Hansegard interviews IKEA China head, Gillian Drakeford. Drakeford an employee of IKEA since 1988, has run the Chinese operations since 2003. She talks about how IKEA approaches the Chinese market. IKEA's Chinese sales in 2011 fiscal year ending Aug 30, were 4.9 billion RMB, 20% larger than in 2010, with 20% growth seen so far in 2012. Its plans are to open in 2nd tier cities with opening stores in Chongqing, and Wuhan. It has opened stores in Chengdu and Tianjin. The way IKEA opens stores is in partnering with its IKEA Centre Group which owns and manages shopping centres. In Wuxi, Beijing and Wuhan it will open stores with shopping centres of this type. The IKEA customer is 25-35 years in age with relatively higher incomes and education who finds a westernized lifestyle appealing. Space is a constraint, and there is the added factor of more stuff needing to be stored with more products available. A multigenerational family may live on 70-90 square metres. IKEA's challenge is to show how to deal with limited space, keep lowering prices to remain competitive with local competitors who are catching up to new retailing trends of IKEA type stores. Because Chinese middle class means much lower incomes than in the EU, the key is to meet affordability goals, and keep lowering prices for value. IKEA's "Lack" table has come down from 120 yuan to 39 yuan, and since 2000 it has cut prices on average by 60%. IKEA uses China's microblogging site Weibo to reach customers- where it puts up announcements and customers ask for tips, suggestions and put up their own pictures....

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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China's urbanization has proceeded to the point where the urban population now exceeds 50%. Urbanization as helped in the process of industrialization as young people went from rural areas to cities to work on the production lines. But further urbanization is running into problems as cities get congested and providing benefits such as affordable housing and schooling to migrant workers means raising taxes. The hokou system which classifies residents as urban or rural persists and efforts to reform it have run into difficulties in places like Chengdu and Chongqing. These efforts were abandoned earlier in Guangzhou and Zhengzhou because of the cost. The hukou system acts as a discriminatory system as migrants from the countryside are not allowed welfare benefits in the cities. They have only temporary status in the cities. And people from farming communities who migrate to the cities also have an interest in keeping land and homes they can go back to in the countryside. As they get into their 40's and 50's and no longer want to work on the production lines they can go back to the countryside. The government also sees the advantage of this as this acts as a safety valve for stability- during the 2008 global financial crisis about 20 million migrants went back to the countryside. The actual number of urban hukou holders in China is about 35% according to researchers at Peking University. Efforts to integrate rural hukou can be costly- the effort in Chongqing is estimated by local officials to cost $30 billion or 200 billon yuan to convert 3 million people. It has given 1.7 million people urban hukou in the past year with the conditions that these migrant workers must have worked in urban areas for at least 3 years. Migrants get to hold onto land entitlements in the countryside. But the urban hukou status would be limited to Chonqqing only. Nationwide the prospects for migrants obtaining the kind of urban hukou staus that gives them benefits of affordable housing and schooling are not good. The World Bank's Kuij's says local governments do not have the incentives or the resources to carry out the programs that are being tried in Chongqing. As the process of urbanization becomes more difficult, the rate of growth in China will be affected....

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Hispanic immigrants make up a big part of the construction industry and a big part of industries like carpet making in Georgia. This has been hit hard and jobless rate for Hispanics is 6.9% according to the Labor Department up from 5.5% in April 2007. States with expandig Hispanic populations like Florida, California, Georgia and Nevada are hit hard by Hispanic job losses. Overall the jobless rate has gone up from 4.5% last year to 5% during th same periodand when one takes out the Hispanic component the jobless rate is down much less, which also tell us something about why the pace of the economic downturn is felt less among the whites and the rest of the population, because the construction industry got hit the worst and the Hispanics especially immigrants who dominate the construction industry are taking the brunt of it. The subprime story plays up here as well. From 1994 to 2006 the rate of Hispanic homeownership climbed to 50% frm 41% according to census data, at a rate more than double for the increase amon non-Hispanics. By 2006 47% of the loans issued for home purchases by Hispanics were subprime or loans with poor credit histories, double the rate for non-Hispanic whites, according to a paper by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, only exceeded by African Americans. In 2006 homeownership fell among Hispanics and one in 12 mortgages made to Latino households in 2005 and 2006 is likely to fail according to Catherine Singley, a policy fellow at the National Council of La Raza, an advocacy group in Washington. Georgia has one of the heavy concentration of new Latino immgrants, with a 70% increase in the state's Hispanic population between 2000 and 2007, according to census data. From one fifth of the construction work force in 2000 Hispanics made up one third by 2006 according to the Economic Policy Institute. Among foreign born Hispanics construction was responsible for 46% of the growth in employment from 2004 to 2006 according to Rakesh Kochhar, an econist at the Pew Hispanic Center, which tells us that the new Latino immigrants dominated the construction industry in places like Atlanta and in the rest of the country and are now getting hit the worst. Not only construction but industries that parallel the growth in construction like carpet making based in Dalton, Georgia, were dominated by Latino immigrants, so that as construction fell these towns and Latinos there are hit hardest. Investment manager El-Erian of Pimco points to employment as the key the critical thing to watch for the next 6 months and its useful to see that unemployment has increased by about half a percentage point to 5% from 4.5% April 2006 to April 2007 according to Labor Department data. As most of this unemployment has probably been taken up by the new Latino immigrants to the USA its probably not changed much excluding that component, which is possibly why the economy has not felt like it is in a recession when all around the signs of recession or what causes a recession are evident around us. Another way to say this is that there are built in hidden mechanisms of the American economy in its present form such as immigration, and possibly others that act as delay mechanisms that throw the recessionary impact back by anywhere from 6-18 months depending on how they operate and can blind one about the reality of oncoming storms. This was to be seen in 2005 for the economy with consumption spending and mortgage industry excesses, and which is why Pimco decided in 2005 at its spring meeting, that the big secular story was about the economic downturn. It actually took until 2007 for this to occur because of similiar things to what we are seeing now in terms of recessionary pain, then the new structured investment vehicles and other ingenious innovations in the mortgage industry may have extended the boom and delayed the economic downturn being felt till 2007. There is a lot of grief among Hispanic people. The numbers tell the story. For the 19 million Latino immigrants in the USA...