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The Socialist party is likely to win the most seats in the Dutch parliament in the Sept 12, 2012 elections. Research firms TNS NIPO and Peil.nl polls show the Socialist Party winning 37 seats up from 15 currently, in a 150 member Dutch parliament. The Liberal party in the ruling coalition is expected to win 30 seats down from 31 currently. The right wing Freedom party that withdrew from the ruling coalition is shown as winning 18 seats down from 24 seats currently. The Socialist party will need to form a coalition with the Labor party which is expected to win 17 seats down from 30 seats currently. Because of the fragmentation of seats between parties, a Socialist-Labor coalition will still need the support of other parties. The current coalition government's austerity drive is not popular with voters leading to a shift. The EC estimate is for a 0.9% decline in GDP in 2012, with 0.7% growth in 2013, but with the global slowdown underway this recovery is in doubt. Offical government estimates show a slowing economy for years, and the need for 20 billion in euros in budget savings for 2013-2017. The Socialist party leader Emile Roemer, wants more time to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, to do this by 2015 instead of the 2013 target set by Mr. Rutte in the current ruling coalition. Roemer also supports a broadening of the ECB's mandate from price stability to stimulating the economy for creating jobs....

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Republicans in the House dispute the $230 billion deficit reduction over the next decade from the Obama healthcare legislation. Their main contention is that the required Medicare cuts may not take place.

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Electricity prices are regulated in Spain and the companies are allowed to charge less than the cost of producing electricity. Prices have fallen in real terms by 30% in the past 10 years. The cumulative deficit from this has now reached 14 billion euros according to the Spanish National Energy Commission. But the present Spanish government is in a bind because just to stop the deficit from increasing would require price increases of 20% according to the Spanish power industryassociation Unesa. Paying off the deficit in the next 15 years would require price increases of 35%.

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Alex Frangos and Sudeep Jain's interview with Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. India's economy is slowing with higher inflation, higher interest rates, inability of the government to make firm decisions on foreign investment, a declining currency, and a growing deficit. Subbarao has come under criticism for keeping interest rates low for too long after the 2008 financial crisis, and then as higher inflation persisted making a number of interest rate increases in 2011, which reduced the credit flows in the Indian economy. Subbarao's defense of his policy of not acting earlier on interest rates and then raising interest rates repeatedly, is that the economy need stimulus in the years after the global financial crisis. He says the inflation in the early stages was a result of a supply shock in food prices and would not have responded to interest rate adjustments. Inflation declined from 9.1% in November 2011 to 7.5% in December. Subbarao says the interest rate increases are over and he is looking for the right time to increase credit flows in the economy. His remaining concerns are with the fiscal deficit, and he called on the finance minister to map out what he plans to do for the fiscal deficit. He expects the deficit for the current fiscal year to increase from 4.6% to 5.5%, as the cost of fuel subisides rises and tax receipts decline. He calls for the removal of subsidies on liquified natural gas and electricity, but concedes that this will be difficult in an election year. Looking back Subbarao sense is that the central bank's policy actions were well calibrated....

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Gerard Baker in the WSJ says there is a dizzying collapse in the quality of leadership in  Britain and also in the US and other countries of Europe.  we are led by too many inferior people, he says. Liz Truss, Johnson and Sunak in Britain are examples of this, he says. They lack the experience and the capabilities needed. This is also true of Meloni in Italy, Macron in France and Merkel in Germany, ineffectiveness of Obama and Trump in some ways in the US.

Yet he says there is another problem for Brexiters in Britain and for Trump Republicans in the US. This is one of the abject chaos that emerges from trying to reconcile the desire for strong government and government support of working class supporters and the tradition of lower taxes and no deficit spending in the Conservative and Republican parties. This is he says a warning for the Republicans from what he sees happening in Britain with Truss, Johnson and Sunak after Brexit.

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Biden makes a rousing speech to workers and worker families at the AFL CIO campaign rally in Philadelphia. He tells them when he thinks about global warming or renewable energy he is thinking of jobs for union workers, when he is thinking of chips and science he is thinking of jobs for workers and union workers, all in the USA. What trillions of dollars in investments mean is jobs for decent workers, working families in the US, jobs with respect for hard work and dignity. And trillions of dollars that come with deficit reduction because of the super wealthy paying their fair share just like everybody else, not 8%, less than schoolteachers pay, firefighters pay. "What this all means for you is a simple proposition. And I remember having this discussion with you, old buddy. When I think global warming I think jobs. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Good paying union jobs. Jobs you can raise a family on. Jobs you can't outsource (applause) that can't be outsourced." ...

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Was Merkel right in setting an amendment to the German Constitution to limit the structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. It is called the Schuldenbremse Amendment. It means there is no money to invest in the country's future, no money for infrastructure even when it is old and crumbling for roads, bridges rail stations and airports, no money for digitization of the economy in which Germany has fallen behind, not enough for defense, and no money to fund needs in education, healthcare, childcare. And not enough money to invest in climate change action. Absent this investment the German economy falls behind, jobs become precarious and public dissatisfaction leads to volatile political situation. Like the Republican party in the US which calls for tax cuts and no walk the talk for infrastructure investment, the CDU/CSU and FDP, have a mindset opposing investing in Germany. Investment that the Greens and SPD promised but could not deliver with the FDP in the Scholz /Habeck /Lindner coalition over 4 years. ...

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Presenting the ReARM package in Brussels the European Union president Von der Leyen says- “This is a moment for Europe and we are ready to step up.” The proposals Leyen said “could mobilise close to €800bn of defence expenditures for a safe and resilient Europe." About $650 billion comes from increasing the European spending on defense by 1.5% of GDP from numbers below 2% that reflected underspending on defense. The EU will loosen strict deficit rules. The CDU coalition government in Germany with SPD under Merz that is being setup will remove the debt brake in the German Constitution that limits defense spending to 1%.  Another $150 billion in loans can be generated from joint EU borrowing that could be given to countries. That will Leyen says- “It will help member states to pool demand and to buy together. This will reduce costs, reduce fragmentation, increase interoperability and strengthen our defence industrial base.” The European Investment Bank will participate in the lending. ...

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Krugman says that Obama better warn the Chinese that they are playing a dangerous game with their currency. He says month after month of the suffering of unemployed workers in the USA is going to look very bad for the Chinese, at the same time as the trade deficit numbers soar again. He asks for urgency from the Obama administration in telling the Chinese to let their currency appreciate . See the related article by Niall Ferguson.

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A crisis situation exists in state revenue and spending needs. According to a Census Bureau report overall state revenue in the US dropped 30.8%, to $1.1 trillion, between fiscal 2008 and 2009. The gap between the spending needed to provide services in the recession and revenues is very large. States fiscal problems along with housing losses, will be the two forces acting as a drag to the US recovery in 2011-2012. State payrolls will be cut back and contracts to private companies reduced to cut spending. Declining federal help in 2011-2012, with the new focus on reducing the federal deficit, will worsen the situation. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, even with large federal help 46 states had to raise taxes and make cuts to close a combined gap of $130 billion in their current budgets. And next year 40 states already have projected gaps totaling $113 billion. Even as revenues drop, the Census Bureau report says the state government expenditures went up by 3% to provide essential services, safety net programs and education. Illinois has a budget deficit of 45 percent of its overall budget, according to the Pew Center on the States. In California it is equal to 13% of te state's total budget, and in Arizona it is 15%. For 2009 tax collections fell by 8.5%, and were partially offset by a 12.9% increase in federal help, which was a total of $477.7 billion, according to te Census Bureau report....

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India is running a large current account deficit with imports exceeding exports. The curent account deficit for the year ending March 31 was $88.2 billion, about 4.8% of GDP. With foreign investment declining remittances from Indians abroad are a major source of incoming capital. Indians overseas sent about $69 billion in remittances home in 2012, increasing from $63 billion in 2011, according to the World Bank. In August 2013 India's central bank relaxed restrictions on interest rates for overseas Indian rupee accounts and on foreign currency denonimated deposits. This has led to a sharp increase in remittances by Indians overseas, with HDFC bank reporting a 30% increase in remittance volumes in June 2013 compared to January 2013.

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French prime minister Edouard Philippe says that France will meet the 3% of GDP deficit target in 2017 and this will require restraint in spending. Over the 5 year term of president Macron France will cut spending by 3% of GDP. The new government still plans to meet investment and tax cuts that were planned, including a $50 billion euro investment program. Over the 5 year term taxes will decline by 1% of GDP, said Philippe. 

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Spain opened the books for regional governments to reassure investors. The figures show the average deficit across 17 regions at 1.24% of GDP at the end of the third quarter, according to the Finance Ministry. Risks include additional spending items in the final quarter and a further drop in tax revenues. Fore several years before the current crisis even when the central government was running a surplus, Spain's local and regional governments ran deficits. Regional governments account for about half of all public spending in Spain, compared to 20% for the central government, with social security accounting for the rest. Catalonia was forced to raise money through patriotic bonds, and Valencia is also following this, as Spain's regional governments have been shut out of international credit markets. Moody's Investor's Service provides a different perspective, as it said in November 2010 that Spain's regions will find it "very challenging" to meet their budget targets for this year and next. Moody's view is that the central government has strong incentives to come to the aid of regional governments should they be shut out of credit markets for an extended period. The Zapatero administration lacks a majority in Congress and depends on regional parties for support. Madrid's municipal government has requested funds to refinance its 7.2 billion euros debt. About 4 billion euros went into putting the capital city's ring road underground. Regional government's will need to refinance 30 billion euros in debt in 2011....

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Pete Domenici of the Domenici-Rivlin deficit reduction commission and Sam Nunn are part of the initiative- Strengthening America- Our Children's Future. Other members of this initiative are Warren Rudman and Evan Bayh. Here they provide ideas on how to address the fiscal cliff of automatic cuts in spending that are approaching at year end under an agreement between Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The agreement was designed to offer the worst outcome for Republicans (huge cuts in defense spending) and worst outcome for Democrats (cuts in entitlemnt spending) as a last ditch effort to force the two parties to come to an agreement on deficit reduction. It comes after president Obama failed to accept the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction commission proposals as a basis for working out a plan and as Republicans in Congress were dead set on avoiding any tax increases. In a recent WSJ editorial praising the CEO statement of 80 U.S. CEO's- organized by the Fix the Debt initiative inspired by Simpson and Bowles- the Journal called the CEO's support for tax increases encouraging and was critical of Republican "deadenders" who flatly opposed any tax increases. Domenici and Rivlin say kicking the can down the road again as Congress has a tendency to do is not the answer and a vigorous effort by responsible members of Congress is needed to come up with deficit reduction using the proposals of Simpson-Bowles commission and Domenici-Rivlin commission. This will end the uncertainty plaguing business confidence that is leading to decline in business investment- decline of 1.3% in the 3rd quarter of 2012- and a weakening of economic recovery. To this end Domenici and Nunn have brought together 35 members of Congress to push forward and held four public forums with experts including hearing from John Taylor, Martin Feldstein and Larry Summers....

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The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council in India lowered the growth rate for the current fiscal year through March to 7.1%. Growth is expected to improve in the next fiscal year to 7.5%-8.0%. C. Rangarajan, the head of the advisory group says he sees the fiscal deficit exceeding the budgeted target of 4.6% of GDP. One panel member says the fiscal deficit target could be exceeded by as much as 1%. Rangarajan emphasized the need to cut subsidies and raise some indirect taxes. India's central bank governor, Subbarao, also emphasized the need to cut subsidies and reduce the deficit in a recent interview with Wall Street Journal reporters Frangos and Jain, Feb. 14, 2012. Lower foreign investment, and reduced credit after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI, India's central bank) increased rates repeatedly, and lower exports due to the eurozone crisis, have reduced the growth rate. The panel expects inflation of 6.5% in March 2012, which Mr. Rangarajan considers to be high. Deputy Governor of the RBI, K.C. Chakrabarty says 7% growth is reasonable under the conditions, as inflation has to be lowered to below 5% to accelerate growth to 9%. Chakrabarty does not see any quick turnaround in growth rates in the next fiscal year with all the headwinds facing the Indian economy....

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British budget cuts announced in Parliament by Britain's Finance Minister, George Osborne. About 83 billion pounds in cuts by 2015 were announced. But Joseph Stiglitz, writing in The Guardian, argued that the plan was a big gamble, as declining tax revenues with lower growth, would lead to smaller deficit reductions. The gamble is that the private sector will pick up, and make up for the reduction in public outlays. If this does not happen, this risks sending the economy into a tailspin. Osborne said that 490,000 jobs will be lost over the next 4 years, some from attrition. Payments to the long term unemployed will also be cut for those who fail to seek jobs, saving $11 billion a year. A new 12 month limit will be imposed on long term jobless benefits. Increase in the retirement age will start in 2020, from 65 to 66 years. At the same time free eye tests, prescription drugs and bus passes remain. Premier Cameron promised not to make cutbacks in health care in the period before the election. This was his way of helping the Conservatives make a comeback to power....

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Obama's closest advisor, David Plouffe. Asked about Plouffe's influence in the Obama White House one aide says that Plouffe's imprint is on "everything." For the last 18 months Obama has kept the 2012 election in mind in his actions and kept a campaign focus, on the advice of Plouffe. George W. Bush's advisor, Karl Rove, does not see this positively, as he says it kept the president from governing. One issue on which there is considerable questioning is why President Obama did not support the recommendations of the president's Simpson-Bowles commission on deficit reduction. Though it remains conjecture, it may be because of Plouffe's and other election related advice that reducing deductions- or what are called tax expenditures- as suggested by Simpson-Bowles would be politically unpopular. If true this may be ways in which running for office long before the election date may affect necessary action in governing. The political calculations when allowed to go rampant can distort the needed actions of responsible governing, and lead to timidity, indecision and lack of leadership. ...

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Tom Friedman makes the case for a gasoline tax. As the US engages in Afghanistan, Iraq and considers the cost of health care and a large deficit, he argues that 45 cents of each dollar of agasoline tax should go to paying down the deficit, 45 cents to pay for healt care, and 10 cents to pay for cushioning the burden of agasoline tax on the poor and people who need to drive long distances to work. Energy Economist Phil Verlager says that a$1 tax on gasoline and diesel fuel would raise $140 billion a year. Mention of the gasoline tax is considered risky by politicians of both parties though it would reduce gasoline consumption and dependence on imported oil.

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Krugman draws attention to the statement of the E.U. leaders put out in mid-July, 2011. This statement calls for strong deficit reductions "in all countries except those under a programme" to take place "by 2012 at the latest." He says this is a call for all of Europe to cut spending. Krugman points out that there is nothing to show that the European private sector will be ready to pick up the slack in the next 2 years. He sees a similiar situation playing out with the deep cuts proposed in the U.S. deficit reduction plans being discussed and the unwillingness of the private sector in the U.S. to invest when demand is weak and household debt is high.

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Problems facing Saudi Arabia in 2015 as King Salman, 79, takes over are an aging leadership, and lack of new solutions to problems facing the economy overly dependent on oil revenues and social spending. Like other Persian Gulf economies the oil sector makes up a large part of GDP- 44% for Saudi Arabia, and 59% for Kuwait. Under King Salman policies will remain the same as under King Abdullah. Social spending was boosted after the protests and political change in the Middle East in 2012-2013. Even with a drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel high social spending and reliance on public sector jobs to meet the employment needs of young Saudis will continue. Young people under 25 years make up 47% of the Saudi population of 29 million. No new income streams are being pursued and taxation is not even considered as an option. The private sector is led by non-Saudis and is under financed with most employment generated in the public sector. Growing oil consumption inside the kingdom with its growing population is also likely to reduce the quantity of oil available for export in the long term. Reserves of $750 billion provide a buffer for now, but long term Saudi Arabia faces a structural deficit, says Steffen Hertog, an expert on Persian Gulf political economics, at the London School of Economics. ...

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Landon Thomas Jr. looks at the situation in Spain and finds it hard not to conclude that austerity policies are not working in the absence of economic growth, and increasing unemployment. Unemployment in Spain is at 24% and growing. Deficit reduction is likely to take longer with the deteriorating economic outlook. Spain's economy minister, Luis de Guindos has announced Spain plans to increase consumer taxes in 2013, including the VAT, which is currently at 18%. This would further depress consumer spending. Bondholders sense dangers from lack of economic growth and competitiveness, as much as they sense dangers from uncontrolled regional spending. As a result investors are leaving Spain. According to analysts at Credit Agricole Cheuvreux in Madrid, 100 billion euros (132 billion) have left Spain, including distress sales- coming from insurance companies, pension and sovereign wealth funds reducing holdings of Spanish bonds.

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Michael McConnell, was Assistant General Counsel of the Office of Management and Budget from 1981-1983. He is now a professor of constitutional law at Stanford University. Here he tries to throw light on how the budgetary process that is required by law, and which makes the formal budget proposed by the president available for public scrutiny, was circumvented through a sequence of events starting in February 2011. The Budget Act of 1974 sets specific deadlines and a process for generating revenue, setting spending priorities, and setting the debt limit. The President first submits his administration's budget by the first Monday in February. The Congressional Budget Office has until Feb. 15 to score the budget using identical metrics for all proposals for a consistent scoring. The budget President Obama put forward in February did not take into account the growing deficit and was rejected by the Senate 97-0. The President proposed a new plan in April 2011, but the proposed budget was so vague that CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf said he could not score it. The subsequent efforts in June and July 2011 were carried out in closed door negotiations between senior Republican leaders and the Obama White House. This subverts the original intention of the law. The Budget Act says that both the House and Senate hold hearings on the proposal, with testimony from the administration, "national organizations" and the "general public." Transparency, openness and accountabilility are key aspects of a proper process that is democratic and prevents the parties from engaging in blame and competing claims. The closed door negotiating sessions and the lack of a concrete written budget proposal from the President has turned the current budget process into an effort by each side to see how it can best position itself for the 2012 presidential election. ...

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The new coalition government of prime minister, Antonis Samaras, will ask for a two year extension for meeting deficit targets from the March 2012 deal with the IMF, EC and ECB. The new coalition will also not make any large layoffs and only reduce the size of the public sector by attrition and retirements, a key condition of the Democratic Left partner in the coalition. This is one of the demands as part of the loan package to Greece. Since the beginning of the crisis the public sector has declined by 10% in Greece to 700,000. By 2015 the public sector is expected to lose another 150,000 workers by attrition.

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The difference between US imports and exports is down from $418 billion in 2018 to $280 billion in last 12 months (August 2024 to July 2025) showing the impact of tariffs and policies of the DJT administration to level the playing field and for getting out of the trade deficits that hurt American jobs, workers, and communities. Tariffs of 20% for fentanyl issue and 125% made it 145% for import tariff on China after Liberation Day. These were lowered to 30% after trade talks. This where it stands today. 

The figure of $280 billion is higher because of transshipping by China through Vietnam- for transshipping the 20% tariff on Vietnam goes up to 40%. Another aspect of the figure of $280 billion is that it is last 12 months which reflects 5 months of the Biden administration, and the surge in imports before deadlines when DJT tariffs would come into place. Battery imports are up, smartphones, toys and apparel is down.