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LyrArc brings in selected articles from many of the world's top publications.

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Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Ireland's unemployment has increased in the years since the 2009 financial crisis. Unemployment in 2011 was 14.6% according to the Central Statistics Office. 76,400 people left the country in the year ended April 2011, up 17% from the prior year. About 60% of the unemployed were long term unemployed at the end of 2011, compared to 50% in 2010. This is the highest in the OECD, after Slovakia.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The incoming executive director of the European Banking Authority, Adam Farkas, voices concerns about the stress tests of European banks in 2010, and would like to use more rigorous criteria for 2011 stress tests. "I would personally opt for a stricter approach," he said in testimony at the European parliament in Brussels.The stress tests for 2011 are already being watered down by the EBA in response to pressure from governments. The stress tests use macroeconomic criteria for growth and unemployment that are benign. And tests are not taking into account a scenario in which European sovereign bond holdings of European banks decline in value due to defaults in some countries. The result is likely to be a loss of credibility in the stress tests. Under worst case scenarios for Greece, and some other countries, their economies would do better in 2011 than in 2010, and improve on 2011 in 2012. The UK Financial Services Authority tests use an unemployment rate of 12.4%, in contrast to the 10.6% rate for the U.K. used by EBA in its worst case scenario. The actual unemployment rate in the UK was 8% for the 3 months to Jan 2011, according to the UK National Statistics Office....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Gottfried points out that after the IPO, in which it made a 73% gain to $45.10 in the first day above listing price of $26, the market value is $31.7 billion in early Nov 2013. This puts more pressure on Twitter to increase revenues to justify such a high market valuation. Estimates from Pivotal Research show Twitter not reaching $1 billion in operating income till 2018-2019. By basic market capitalization Twitter opened at about 26 times 2014 sales estimates, and 33 times using diluted market value.
WSJ Original article ›
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The Hunter Biden investigation for non payment of taxes and illegally carrying a firearm was done under the US Attorney for Delaware David Weiss in 2018 appointed by Republicans, and extended into the Democratic Biden administration with Attorney General Merrick Garland. It ends in a plea deal. WSJ says this protects the Biden administration from any claims that it was helping the president's son.  He is the second son of Joe Biden and Neilia Biden. His mother and sister were killed in a car accident when he was a child. The only survivors Hunter and his brother Beau. Beau died of cancer in 2015. Hunter suffered a decline after that period leading to a divorce with Buhle in 2017, a troubling period for the whole Biden family she says. Hunter is a graduate of Georgetown and of Yale law school. 

WSJ Original article ›
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Spotify is in the same position as Netflix in 2011 with its margins restricted by the fact that most of the major TV content was controlled by a few companies. It broke out of this with its own TV series "House of Cards." The gross margin at Spotify is at 24.5% but it will be hard to bring it up because Spotify is dealing with a few producers of music for licensing deals, the big 3 and Merlin controlling 87% of songs streamed.

Competitor Apple Music has the deep pockets to offer music subscriptions on plans that are minimal cost in the first year. This puts pressure on Spotify with monthly subscriptions dropping to $6.55 or 5.32 euros in 2017 from 6.84 euros in 2015. This pressure on pricing from Apple Music will only grow. Spotify meanwhile has not made profit since its founding.

New York Times Original article ›
WSJ Original article ›
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Under the Volcker Rule setup during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, banks total investments in private equity, hedge funds and similar higher risk funds cannot exceed 3% of high quality capital. During the financial crisis investment banks were highly leveraged leading to the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the precarious financial condition of other banks. Goldman has pared down about 60% of such investments. Remaining are $4.8 billion in private equity investments, $1.2 billion in real estate, and about $1.1 billion in both credit and hedge funds. Regulators have given the bank till July 2017 to comply. As banks recovered from the impact of the crisis, the tearing of the social fabric that happened with high unemployment in some groups especially older white men, has remained six years after the crisis- as evident in the U.S. election campaigns this year. As a result the mood has shifted for tighter regulation and both party platforms, Republican and Democratic, now call for reinstatement of the Glass Steagall Act, which separated commercial banking from investment banking as part of the lessons learned from the Great Depression. Volcker, was chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Carter administration, known for taking a tough line against inflation. He was the principal driver of the move to restrict banks from risky activity, and faced considerable opposition from banks during the 2009-2013 period when the rule was being formulated.  ...
New York Times Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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China's domestic debt has surged to levels that precede a crisis, to 216% of GDP and heading for 271% by 2017 according to Fitch Ratings. As a result president Jinping has taken over control of economic policy and controlling debt, especially local government debt, is now a top priority for 2014. Jinping will head the "leading group" for overall top down reforms, reflecting the new urgency. Local government debt went up 67% from 10.7 trillion yuan to 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.95 trillion) in just 3 years from 2010 to 2013, according to the National Audit Office. About half of this debt is due by the end of 2014, according to Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green. Another risk is that shadow banking with interest rates of 10% are now about 11% of new lending. The option adopted by the government to use central government funds and regulation to restrict lending could make local governments turn increasingly to the shadow bank lenders (trust companies, and informal lenders) making things worse. The other option of tackling it aggressively by letting some companies default has the risk of other lenders raising rates on loans and bonds. This makes solutions tricky and prone to problems of increasing severity. ...
The New York Times Original article ›
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A Pew Research Center poll in September 2016 finds 81 percent of Indians have a favorable opinion of Narendra Modi in 2016, compared to 87 percent in 2015. Even among supporters of the opposition Indian National Congress a majority say they have a favorable opinion of Mr. Modi. The author of the poll, Bruce Stokes, says the opinion of frustration of the Indian elites and media about the Modi administration is not reflected in public opinion. Recently the Modi government passed legislation for a national Goods and Services Tax replacing overlapping state and federal taxes that are seen as holding up growth.  Issues the Indian public ranks high are corruption, unemployment and terrorism.

The Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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US manufacturing revival under Biden and Trump policies of the last decade 2016-2026.

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Petrobras plans investments of $224 billon over the next 5 years 2010-2014, up from $174 billion planned in the 2009-2013 plan. The focus is on development of large offshore oil reserves in the presalt area in the Atlantic ocean.
Economist Original article ›
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This report in the Economist says that the days of double digit increases in the car market are a thing of the past. Future increases will be in the mid to high single digits, according to McKinsey consulting firm. China's economy is slowing and official estimates of GDP growth of 7% are described by experts as overstated, with real estimate of growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 by Citi, Conference Board and Capital Economics all below 5%, as reported in the WSJ. A sign of the change in the market is the need for higher use of incentives. The growth in the used car market offers buyers other alternatives. The new plants being added will increase production by 5.3 million light vehicles a year and come online in 2015 and 2016, this is in addition to the 22.8 million in sales in 2014. Average Chinese auto plants operate at 70% of capacity and the added volume will lower capacity utilization further. China's local automobile companies, with the exception of companies in joint ventures with foreign companies, have failed to gain customer loyalty. Many of these companies may be absorbed by foreign car makers or shut down as the industry consolidates. Foreign companies will find doing business less attractive as sales decline. ...
The Economist Original article ›
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Xiaomi is China's leading brand. It is very different from other companies in China and America. It is tightly controlled by its founder Lei Jun who has built a loyal following for the brand  through fan clubs and creating an enthusiastic following. Because the firm is run by founder Lei Jun it can make quick decisions to enter a market. Lei Jun was a computer science student in Wuhan in 1987 as China opened up to the world.  By 2017- in three years from being zero in the Indian market place in 2014- Xiaomi had become the largest smartphone company in India. The company was launched in 2010. Profit margins are thin about 1% in a very competitive pricing market.  Metrics are based on revenue per user of $9 per user from an installed base of 190 million smartphone users, spending 54 minutes a day using Xiaomi's app, game and other services, or 20% of the phone use time. Revenue per user comes from advertising, and from commissions on the apps and games it sells to its user base. In 2015 Xiaomi had a loss, in 2016 sales dropped, in 2017 new products led to a resurgence in the market with sales increasing 68%. As Xiaomi goes into its IPO, experts say much of the $10 billion from the IPO could go into reinvestment as Xiaomi reinvents itself and moves into other internet business. ...

Intel Pushes MacBook

New York Times Original article ›
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Intel is pushing the Ultra Notebook in 2012, with 75 new designs based on the superthin lightweight look of the MacBook Air expected from manufacturers in 2012. The MacBook Air is priced around $999. Intel's strategy is to bring the price down to where this becomes a popular choice for mainstream customers. Intel setup a $300 million fund in 2011 to support the development of displays and batteries for the superthin notebooks.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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How returns in the U.S. stock markets of over 30% in 2013 change the picture of five year returns to the end of 2013 compared to the end of 2012. Long run has to be much more than 5 years and even longer for decent returns.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Job prospects for college graduates in 2011 are showing significant improvement from the previous year. About 19% more graduates will be hired in 2011 compared to 2010, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. For college seniors, the survey shows 41% having an offer in 2011 compared to 38% in 2010. But the situation remains difficult for students who graduated in 2009 and 2010. Ernst & Young hired 2800 graduates in 2011- up 22% from 2010. The jobless rate for college graduates in the age group 20-24 is 6.4% in April 2011, coming down from 7.1% in the prior year, according to the Labor Department. In April 2007 the unemployment rate was 3.5%. The situation is uneven, with better prospects for graduates in computer science, engineering, accounting and economics, and most of the jobs in the private sector.
WSJ Original article ›
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Turkey's constitutional amendment to centralize powers in the office of the president was approved by 51.2% of voters with 48.8% voters saying "no." About 85% of 55 million eligible voters voted in the election. It was seen as not offering a level playing field for opposition parties to organize and have freedom of assembly, after action taken by the president against the media and opposition following the coup attempt in 2016. The opposition Republican Party says about 2.5 million votes may have been compromised. Also showing the wide split in the country between urban and rural, a majority of voters from the largest cities of Istanbul and Ankara voted against expanding the president's powers. The constitutional amendment now becomes effective in Nov. 2019 after new elections. Turkey's electoral boards are adminstered by judges, yet the integrity of the system of justice has suffered from the dismissal of about one third of all judges since July 2016.

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Efforts to increase wages by the Abe administration in Japan. Combined 10 of 12 major auto worker unions in Japan said companies had met their full demands in 2013. Toyota offered workers a bonus equal to 6 months of base pay- a 15% increase over 2012 bonus. This reverses a negative trend of declining wages in Japan- average annual compensation declined for part and full time employees, including bonuses, for 8 of 10 years 2002-2011, reaching 4.09 million yen or $42,800 per worker in 2011, according to the National Tax Agency.
New York Times Original article ›
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The U.S. Fed's plans for reinvestment of $216 billion in Treasuries that will mature in 2016. The numbers are smaller in 2014 and 2015. The Fed's William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve of New York, supports continued reinvestment. He says ending reinvestments risks inadvertently tightening credit and financial conditions, inconsistent with the Fed's intentions. Reinvesting would provide stimulus, even as the Fed gradually reduces its bond buying program, by keeping borrowing costs low.
New York Times Original article ›
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This report shows how ethnic strife of leaders of the new country of South Sudan, has resulted in civil war and millions of refugees. In 2011 South Sudan voted to separate from Sudan. The ethnic groups, the Dinka and Neuer join together as part of the new government. In 2012 a peace agreement was signed between Sudan and South Sudan. In December 2013 fighting breaks out between Salva Kiir from the Dinka ethnic group and Riek Machar of the Nuer ethnic group. The rivalry between the two leaders engulfs the whole country. The fighting between Mr. Kiir and Mr. Machar dates back to 1991, yet a peace deal was signed in 2005 between the two, and South Sudan became independent in 2011. About 1.5 million people are refugees and over 3.8 million people are short of food in 2015, according to the World Food Program in South Sudan.
New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation in India is at 9.1% in May 2011, compared to the prior year. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 slowed to 7.8%, from an annual rate of 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Other figures show the same trend. Local investment growth for the second half of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011 was at 4.1%, a decline from 14.7% at the beginning of the year. Foreign investment in the first quarter 2011 declined 32% from the prior year, down to $3.4 billon. Car sales have also declined to the lowest rate in two years.
The New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Krueger and Posner, eminent economists, say the reason wages have stagnated in the U.S. with wages not having budged much over a decade 2008-2018, is not only because of globalization and automation as long term trends. They attribute this stagnation in wages to "monopsony power," or power American corporations have over workers because of their stronger bargaining position and because workers have few alternatives.  For most of this period 2008-2018 high unemployment as reflected by the people out of work and taking part time jobs or having stopped looking for work, shifted bargaining power to companies. The Economist magazine pointed out that workers have not shared in the profit and gains corporations made during this period. Here Krueger and Posner show additional factors such as non compete clauses in worker agreements that have depressed wages. Half of franchise agreements prohibit competition for labor. Outsourcing work to other companies that hire workers means these outsourcing companies have more power over workers than the original companies using the labor. Unions represent only 7 percent of private sector workers by 2017, compared to 35 percent in the 1950's, so that there are no mechanisms to counteract the greater bargaining power gained by companies vs. workers. The way workers have roots in the communities they live and the consolidation of employers into a few companies in a particular area, mean fewer options exist for workers.  Senators Warren and Booker and the anti-trust division of the U.S. Justice Department are in agreement on this issue of widespread use of noncompete agreements that is considered unlawful, says this report in the NYT, offering hope for a solution to bring a better balance between the rights of workers to fair wages and companies seeking profit for stakeholders. Issues about workers, lack of gains for workers, prevalent outsourcing, and the frustrations of labor with parties that had lost touch with their worker base- such as Labor in Britain, SPD in Germany, Socialist Party in France and the Democratic Party in the U.S. - have led to political upsets with support shifting to other parties. This has not led to significant change to improve bargaining power of workers to correct the imbalance that now exists between labor and companies, leading to calls for change. Eric Posner is a law professor at the University of Chicago law school and co-author of a new book "Radical Markets: uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society." This book turns the popular notion on its head that free markets have produced the imbalances that hurt social cohesion and democracy, by saying it is precisely the suppression of free competition such as for labor that have created this unhealthy situation. This is true in other areas where monopoly power has developed in other parts of the U.S and European economies in 2008-2018, as also for distortions in capital allocation that hurt infrastructure and other public investment. Krueger is a professor of public affairs at Princeton University and former head of the President's Council of Economic Advisors in 2011 under Obama, showing that Democrats themselves failed to correct this imbalance leading to a shift to other parties and Mr. Trump, who also appear to lack ideas or solutions to this problem that affects social cohesion and democracy. This is contrary to the vision of American or European society of better opportunity for all shared by all Americans and Europeans for most of the twentieth century. ...

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