LyrArc Article Gist
This Indian religious festival draws tens of millions every day to ancient cities Prayagraj, Nashik, Hardwar, Ujjain, on sacred rivers Ganga, Yamuna, Godavari and Shipra. It happens every 6 years as half Kumbh. The Mela or gathering in 2025 is in Prayagraj on the Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati river waters where they meet. It is the Maha or great Kumbh Mela that happens once in 144 years. Much preparation went into the gathering by the Indian government and some estimates of the total over 45 days are 600 million religious devotees seeking a bath in the holy river. 

BBC News shows different aspects of this Kumbh Mela religious gathering in Prayagraj, India. For the first time millions of people have come to India from all over the world for this Mela or gathering for Lord Shiva. Today is Maha Shivarathri, the day of Lord Shiva.

LyrArc Article Gist
China faces the problem of an ageing population as births decline and their are fewer young people to support senior citizens. The shift to a two child limit after the policy limiting children to one per couple has not accomplished the goal of restoring the birth rate. The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the president Xi Jinping have taken the decision to allow three children per family.  This comes at a time when the old policy meant a fine of 10 times the disposable income for having a third child. The law was not enforced in all regions but acted to deter larger families. Yet there is a cultural effect of decades of having smaller families that will not be easily overcome with a change in the law. In Latin America smaller families are the result of decades of cultural change towards smaller families. Young people are increasingly aware of the cost of raising and educating an additional child, and the effect on the standard of living. Experts say it is too costly to raise another child  and housing is not cheap in China.  This discussion with 3 billion comments over Weibo in the discussion of this policy in China last week, misses a more obvious point from the graph shown in this report in The Guardian. That graph shows the curve for the birth rate in 2019 dropping faster in South Korea and Japan than in China, so that in 2019 the birth rate in Japan and South Korea was lower than in China. This shows that even without a one child policy the birth rate in Chia would be closer to that of South Korea after industrialization progressed and society experienced profound cultural and economic change. Japan today has the lowest birth rate in Asia. The Latin American experience also confirms this shift to small families. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Which dilapidated or broken road and bridge infrastructure will be rebuilt first under president Biden's plan? The WSJ looks at the $110 billion in new funding over 5 years to do this. In addition $66 billion for rail, and $39 billion for public transit. So much needs to be done. The list goes on and on. The head of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation, Mr. Tymon, says projects that were not going to get done in 6 years will now get done in 2 years. This is the big difference today, compared to the period under president Obama when little got done. After president Trump put a big spotlight on broken American infrastructure enough of a consensus exists to get on with the work in a big way. Normally the federal government provides about 50% of the funding for state highway and bridge projects. Take Rhode Island, Biden's bill would provide $300 million a year over 5 years, over $60 million over previous yearly levels. Of Rhode Island's 777 bridges 19% are deficient or dilapidated. The longer the bridge is deficient the costlier it becomes to fix. Bad infrastructure affects industry in multiple ways, a problem ignored for too long. Some of them date back to 1903, some to 1958.  In Woonsocket Rhode Island, 5 older bridges are deficient that are vital for local companies, including textile mill, and plastics manufacturer.  One deficient bridge at Naval Station, Newport, to Quonset Business Park with 200 companies is handling steady truck traffic. These are critical bridges for manufacturing says the city's Mayor.  Another state Missouri shows how the Biden investment will change infrastructure in the states. Annual capital funding of $1 billion will go to $1.5 billion over 5 years, says the Director of Missouri's Department of Transportation. That puts within reach all $3 billion of wish list projects that were considered high priorities. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
On the occasion of the start of the Indo-Pacific Framework economic alliance setting a path to a new supply chain for the US and European Union, this account of how Mohandas Gandhi was treated as one of their own by the workers of Europe serves as a reminder from the past. The only foundation that is sound in principle and deserves our support for the new supply chain that is to be forged for EU, US and India and the countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa, is one that will support American and European workers and families as well as workers and families of the partners in the Free World such as India and other countries.  The Davies family were Quakers and Socialists, who owned a textile mill in Darwen, Lancashire. In 1931 when Mohandas Gandhi visited England for a Round Table Conference to discuss self-rule he was invited by the Davies family to Darwen. The enthusiasm of the workers in Lancashire for Gandhi can be seen in this report in the BBC about that visit. Gandhi's sympathy for the workers and the common feeling of support can be seen from this account of the visit by Darwen's local historian Mr. Heys. Gustan Green was 10 years old in 1931 when she met Gandhi. She said "My father said I want you to see Gandhi, then in the future you can say that you witnessed that brave man. I stood by this door into the works that was my first sighting of Gandhi. He looked down at me, stroked my hair, grinned and walked away. He never said a single word." Gandhi's sympathies were with the workers. Gandhi said "They treated me as one of their own. I shall never forget that." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Similiarities with Japan are in the exploding monetary base growth by the Fed, just as bank lending is dropping. And as in post bubble Japan of the 1990's, all of the behaviour says Wood invites legitimate comparisons with Japan. The government has lent, spent or guaranteed about $11 trillion to the financial sector broadly defined, because of letting financial institutions remain "too big to fail," whether Fannie Mae, AIG or Citigroup. None of them have been broken up. And this is similiar to the lack of bank cleanup in Japan with regulatory forbearance for years after the bubble. He thinks there is evidence that America is already in a Japanese style "liquidity trap."

LyrArc Article Gist
The story of a company and its founder in Seattle who realized that $40,000 a year is not much to make a decent living in Seattle- that people had to work 2 jobs. In the process hurting the productivity at the company, with employees putting in less of the kind of energy and motivated work that helps companies grow. The founder decides to cut back on his own expenses and extravagant lifestyle to make sure his employees are paid a decent wage. He did the math and decided on $70,000 Five years later sales of the company have doubled. It is a payments company and the payments processed at Gravity doubled from $3.8 billion a year to $10.2 billion. The number employees have doubled. For employee productivity it mattered that they were not doing 2 jobs and worrying about credit card debt. Now 70% of employees have paid off debt. The amount of money they put into pension funds has doubled. And instead of 1% about 10% own their own homes. This suggests the old culture was bad for the economy as well as employees. More housing demand, more homes built, more cars sold, more money for pension funds to manage, all translate into a better performing economy and economic growth. Simply stated the old culture has put an artificial ceiling on economic growth and worse set a low bar fro productivity in companies. Healthier employees who could spend the time doing second jobs doing exercize instead and staying fit would also bring down the money spent on healthcare.  Ultimately it us about good common sense, and honest thinking about what works and does not work. The old culture simply fails good common sense. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The expected glut in office space in London. About 8 million square feet of new office space is being built in the financial district known as the City and a large part of it is coming in in 2008. The level of construction is 60% higher than the City's 10 year average. About 80% of this office space is speculative , that no tenants exist yet for the space, normally only 50% is speculative. And this is happening when new lease signings in the City fell by 49% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter. Big banks like Citigroup are cutting down on office space and Macquarie Group and Australian bank is postponing plans to lease office space for a London headquarters.

LyrArc Article Gist
RIM reports selling 6 million smartphones in the 1st quarter of 2013, including 1 million Z10 smartphones. RIM says its Blackberry subscriber base dropped to about 76 million from 79 million the prior quarter. RIM reports earnings of $98 million, revenue declined to $2.68 billion from $4.18 billion the prior year quarter. The company's cash position at $2.9 billion was the same as the prior quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
Republican McConnell and Democrat Schumer in interviews in recent days with The Washington Post, as the focus on the rest of 2024  is on what will the new US Senate look like, who is in majority, and who is in minority after November. A small faction in his Republican party opposed McConnell's bipartisan compromise. McConnell says after 17 years in the US Senate, that one has to remember what Harry Truman said. Truman America's post war president in 1950's said if you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog. Yet the Post also says the two McConnell and Schumer worked closely for 4 months to negotiate the bipartisan compromise on immigration to close the border. The first time the two sides have come  this close in this century says the Washington Post. Looking at the 22 Republisenators that supported McConnell and voted for the aid to Ukraine one finds most are senior and the majority of the senators with the most experience, compared to a small faction of newcomers without anywhere near the same experience. This is why the dissension in Congress can also be seen as not telling the whole story, when the most experienced people in the Senate and the House of both parties have come together on the big issues even when the fringes of both are engaged in unconstructive confrontation. You could see that when the younger J.D. Vance of Ohio addressed the heads of all the major US banks this past week in a Congressional Senate hearing and the difference when the more experienced Van Hollen of Maryland talked to the same banking heads. And when Senator Tillis of North Carolina one of the older experienced Senate Republicans made a strong plea for aid to Ukraine on the House floor and in his earlier support for the bipartisan change to asylum and parole immigration laws in the US. A broad center is emerging around coming together, around the most experienced people in the US Congress that sets the country in the right direction.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Moderate far right, right and socialist have less meaning in the context of the French government of prime minister Michael Barnier. The NFP as the largest single party sees the turning down of it's moderate candidate Lucie Castets by Macron as not representative of the vote. Michael Barnier's choice as prime minister from the Les Republicains party with 47 members in the new National Assembly, the smallest of the top four parties NFP, Renaissance, RN and LR, means he will have to depend on Marie Le Pen's RN party to remain prime minister. Together the Les Republicains of Sarkozy and the Ensemble of Macron  have 213 members in the National Assembly representing the status quo, 168 for Ensemble Macron and 45 Les Republicians the Gaullist party. These two parties are the largest bloc combined compared to 182 seats for the socialist NFP Front Populaire and the Le Pen party with 143 seats. The strange twist is that Macron started out in the Socialist Party and was part of the Socialist administration of Francois Hollande, who formed his own party Renaissance (now Ensemble) to bring younger faces and replace the old political parties. This led to the decline of the Gaullist Les Republicains party. In 2024 Macron is back to the old parties- becoming part of an alliance with the old Les Republicains Gaullists. Yet the financial crises of 2009, the pandemic, and the inflation crises in France have changed France from what it was in the Gaullist De Gaulle period in the 60's to 90's, with a struggling lower and middle class who have shifted their support to Le Pen and to the Socialist Front Populaire. Barnier is left with the challenging job of combining new immigration policies (Le Pen) with socialist policies to help the middle and working class. A new consensus that says stopping migrants is part of helping working class (in Denmark and other EU countries) is how Barnier has to approach this situation to bring together different parties. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Krauthammer tells U.S. presidential candidates stop saying that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, because by its very definition it is a Ponzi scheme. Instead exercize common sense and take the simple steps to update Social Security for today's longer life expectancy, aging population and way fewer workers to support a retired person. In a Ponzi scheme payments by people joining currently are paid to those who joined earlier, with not enough to pay future entrants- which is what is happening to Social Security. In 1940, after Roosevelt signed Social Security into law, there were 160 workers for each retired person. That dropped to 16.5 in 1950, today there are 3 workers. In 1940 the life expectancy was 62, today it is closer to 80. Krauthammer says the writing is on the wall- simply have the courage to make the changes by raising the retirement age, means testing the rich for benefits, and adjust the cost of living measure.

LyrArc Article Gist
Nuclear plants cost much more, as much as $5 billion to $12 billion. Part of the cost increase is the huge increase in cost of cement, steel, copper etc and a shortage of skilled labor, and a shrunken supplier network for the nuclear industry because not many nuclear plants went up recently. This means if nuclear plants are built because of emissions problems with coal and natural gas then customers will have to pay higher utility bills. About 104 nuclear reactors operate in the USA and most are profitable in recent years only because they were sold to their current operators at less than what they actually cost. For 75 reactors built between 1966 and 1986 the average cost was $3 billion, so the cost now is double or triple what it cost then.

LyrArc Article Gist
Asian banks exposure to the US subprime mortgage securities. Bank of China has the largest exposure of $9.65 billion investments in subprime, but its part of a large investment of $130 billion in foreign currency investments and the bank funds itself with customer deposits so it does'nt face a crisis even though its much large than the bank's first half profit of $3.9 billion. Note that this bank has only taken a loss of $100 million charged so far. Standard Chartered has about $17 billion in a structured investment vehicle (siv). Mitsubishi Financial Group has $2.45 billion exposure to subprime mortgage securities. Mizuho has off balance sheet vehicles with exposure of $7.3 billion. HongKong, India and the rest of Asia are not affected.

LyrArc Article Gist
Blackberry's new smartphones fail to compete with phones from Samsung, Apple and other competitors. Under CEO Chen Blackberry sales decline further with a net loss of $423 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. Revenue decline was 64% to $976 million for the 4th quarter 2013. The cash position declined to $2.7 billion from $3.2 billion the prior quarter. In a remarkable reversal older Blackberry phones outsold new Blackberry 10 smartphones launched in 2013. Older Blackberry 7 models sales were 2.3 million compared to 1.1 million for the newer Blackberry 10 models, a situation unheard of in the smartphone industry.

LyrArc Article Gist
Under a landmark ruling by a federal court in Leipzig, German cities can now ban older diesel engine vehicles. The cities of Stuttgart and Dusseldorf are allowed to legally ban older higher polluting diesel cars from zones that are badly affected by air pollution. Environmental group DUH brought the lawsuit after 70 German cities exceeded European Union limits for nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2017. NOx emissions can cause respiratory disease and difficulty breathing. Diesel engines produce high levels of nitrogen oxide, and low levels of carbon dioxide. EU air quality standards are not being met in cities across Europe, so that this could set a precedent for Europe, says the BBC. Of the 15 million diesel cars on German roads only 2.7 million meet the latest Euro-6 standards, according to German automotive watchdog agency. Diesel car market share is dropping- falling to 39% in 2017 from 48% in 2015. The VW diesel emissions scandal in 2015 further eroded public confidence. The German government already has suggested alternatives such as offering free public transport in cities with poor air quality. The government opposed the ruling because it did not want the car industry to bear the additional cost of retrofitting older vehicles at a time when German carmakers were investing in electric vehicles.  Yet the trend is clear. Paris, Madrid, Mexico City, Athens have pledged to ban diesel vehicles from the centre of cities by 2025, with Copenhagen doing this in 2019. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
COFCO is the abbreviation for China National Cereals, Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation, which was the state company importing grain and other staple foods into China during the period before China opened up its economy. It is now a dominant company in China's grain and other staple products from edible oil, dairy products to bacon and beer. Under CEO Ning Gaoning, Cofco has transformed itself since 2004 from primarily being a grain importer to value added products, food processing, and technologies in the food business. Cofco is expanding rapidly overseas with deals and acqusitions, and has about $10 billion in state funds for acquisitions. Recent acquisitions include $2.7 billion for Dutch grain trader Nidera BV, and 51% ownership of Noble agricultural unit. Earlier acquisitions include vineyards in Chile and France in 2010, and Australia's Tully Sugar in 2011. Current plans are for acquisitions in the U.S. and Latin America. Revenues in 2014 were an estimated $63.3 billion. Interviews with cane farmers that are part of Tully Sugar in Australia show Cofco has managed the company well and won the support of farmers....

LyrArc Article Gist
Peugeot's finances come as a shock to the French government as it cuts spending to reduce the deficit. A 3 billion euro loan was made to Peugeot in 2009. Another loan may be needed from the French government says Peaple because Peugeot is losing 200 million euros in cash each month. One key reason for Peugeot's problems is that it gets 58% of its sales in Europe, with particular emphasis in southern European countries, and demand in key markets France, Italy and the UK is expected to decline by about 7- 10%, according to Moody's forecasts. Peugeot's operating loss for the first half of 2012 was 700 million euros. The plan to close the Aulnay plant and other planned cost reductions may not be enough say experts. The closing of that plant could save 600-700 million euros, according to JP Morgan estimates. This would improve operating profit margins to 3.3% from 2.2% based on 2011 results, and this may not happen with the price competition in these markets. This leaves Peugeot in a precarious position....

LyrArc Article Gist
Next to what Brzail is doing under President Da Silva with a program to aid the poorest in Brazil pay for food and necessities, this program is a commendable one and could turn ou to be a big achievement as it becomes popular with the poorest people in India. It certainly will be true over the next 5-10 years that by improving the conditions of the poorest 300 million people it will go a long way towards creating and enhancing the conditions throughout India, and bring millions of people who could become new markets for the nation's consumer and other companies. The task of providing better nutrition along with hospital care could also be tackled with similar programs and also schooling so that the lives of the next generation can be significantly improved and children do not have to live the drudgery and difficult lives of their parents who are struggling for a living. Important thing is for a small cost of $1 billion people it carries the whole nation and its poorest 300 million people forward....

LyrArc Article Gist
China's leading online retailer with its own warehouses and delivery similiar to Amazon is JD.com. It has 118 warehouses in 39 Chinese cities, and 1045 smaller pickup centers in 500 smaller cities. Its online service and infrastructure to support it has been built carefully since 2006. It can now deliver by 3pm the next day and handles 2 million orders per day. The company raised $1.78 billion on the NASDAQ in the U.S. in 2014. Hong Kong venture capital firm invested $10 million in 2006. As it added new systems and software other investors including Tiger Global, Yuri Milner, and the Waltons invested in the firm. JD focusses on low cost and reliable fast delivery using motorbikes for 20,000 couriers for China's congested traffic in cities. It is a unique combination of Amazon, UPS and Wal-Mart in its innovative way of running its retail operation. Liu is the son of a cargo shipowner from Jiangsu province who studied sociology at Renmin University in Beijing, before starting an electronics store in Beijing's high tech zone Zhongguancun. The online retail idea took off when he setup an online store in 2004. He says a lot has changed since the early days when delivery was slow with many customer complaints, and says logistics is important because of user experience. Because JD charges little for delivery margins are thin, and the company has focussed on growing the user base over profitability....

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, gives insights into the Chinese position in trade war with the U.S.  China has its own internal groups which support China being able to take a leadership role in world affairs. Xi Jinping made giving China a prominent role in the world a feature of his presidency. China  has this internal audience and its own sense that China's resurgence was won with hard work and cooperation, plus dedication of the Chinese people. In the past Japan and South Korea also used state subsidized industries, and subsidies to gain leadership in key business sectors involving high technology. China would see this state subsidies model as its own model of development. From this standpoint the U.S. demands on subsidies as unfair competition could be seen as changing a key part of its economic model.  Asking China to put everything in writing and show tangible proof of enforcement as the U.S. insisted in talks, was too much for the Chinese side. China said trust us to do this, and lift the tariffs based on our verbal assurances. The U.S. having seen decades of no progress on this point, wanted tangible proof before tariffs were lifted. Added to the demands on subsidies were the demands for no more of what the U.S. calls stealing of U.S. technology through forced transfer of technology by U.S. firms as a condition to operate in Chinese markets. With the U.S. lagging in 5G technology and Huawei ahead the issue resonates on the U.S. side. Add to this Mr. Trump's key voter base includes the former Democratic party supporting workers who have shifted to him because of trade agreements and policies of Clinton and Obama that hurt American workers through seemingly endless closure of manufacturing plants from Chinese competition.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Rick Perry faces criticism from Republican candidates Romney, Bachmann, Huntsman and Paul at the Republican presidential candidate debate in Tampa on September 12, 2011. Perry defended his remarks on Social Security by telling viewers- "slam dunk guaranteed that program is going to be in place." Romney suggested Perry had been served four aces for his jobs record in Texas. And Santorum accused Perry of providing education assistance to illegal immigrants to attract the Latino vote. Perry defended his remarks on Fed chairman Bernanke printing money amounting to treasonous behaviour.

LyrArc Article Gist
Romney promises to focus on everyday concerns of jobs, family, and budget deficits with his 5 step plan to revive the economy. He says he will not raise taxes on the middle class. The 5 step plan is to make America energy independent by making full use of domestic oil and gas resources, create jobs and provide skills for new jobs, make trade work for America, support small businesses with fewer regulations and smaller tax burden and smaller burden of healthcare, and reduce the deficit. His plan he says will create 12 million new jobs.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Obama attends a filming of a show for "The View" hosted by Whoopi Goldberg and co-host Barbara Walters at ABC studios on Sept 24, 2012. This happens just as world leaders are greeted by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as they arrive for a meeting of the General Assembly of the United Nations in New York. And just as Tim Arango reports in the NYT that the situation in the Middle East is seeing spillover affects from Syria that affect the entire region, and Middle East tensions are rising.

LyrArc Article Gist
Based on 2009 financial results, 94 largest banks worldwide would be 577 billion euros or $769 billion short of risk free capital they would need to hold if the Basel III rules were applied to these banks. About half of this shortfall is in Europe. This was stated by members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The banks have till Jan 1, 2019 to comply with the new rules. Banking profits for these banks was 209 billion euros in 2009, suggesting that these banks could meet these requirements from retained profits.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Smer-Social Democracy party led by Robert Fico won an absolute majority in the Slovakian parliament. Smer-Social Democracy party won 83 of 150 seats in parliament. The party campaigned on the theme that the austerity measures were too hard on the poorer segments of society, and did not do enough for job creation. Unemployment in Slovakia is at 13%. The shift also marks changing opinion in Hungary, France, and other EU countries about austerity measures and the impact on countries with high unemployment, in the absence of efforts to stimulate job creation.