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Krugman points out that the inflation adjusted wages of non-supervisory workers in the retail field in America has declined by 30% since 1973. He says there are no adverse effects on unemployment because workers in retail are not competing with workers in other countries as happens in manufacturing. They are also some of the lowest paid workers to begin with, and the numbers are not small. One estimate is that here are 30 million workers who would benefit from an increase in the minimum wage from the current level of $7.25 to $10.10. State by state comparisons provide proof of this as no evidence of losses in employment are to be seen when one state has raised the minimum wage and another neighboring state has not. Germany is facing a similiar problem of low paid temporary workers and a new coalition government is planning an increase in the minimum wage in 2014 as a response to increasing inequality and disparity in incomes developing in the last two decades.

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Lydia Polgreen and Marcus Mabry talk to black and white South Africans in Bloemfontein, the capital of the Afrikaaner Orange Free State. The National Party which started Apartheid as state policy in 1948 and the African National Congress were both founded in Bloemfontein. The accounts provide insights into race relations in South Africa and the growing gap between the economic condition of black and white people. After free elections and about 20 years of ANC governments under Mandela, Mbeki, and Zuma, progress has been made in primary and secondary schooling but most blacks are falling behind in the skills needed in a modern economy as shown by the widening income gap from $17,000 in 2001 to $30,000 in 2011. Less than 40% of South Africans socialize with other races, according to SA Reconciliation Barometer. 22% of whites and 20% of blacks live in racially integrated neighborhoods. 11% of white children and 15% of black children attend integrated schools. The result is a South Africa where a lot remains to be done after Mandela....

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Lower oil prices, higher corporate profits, and restrained spending, lead to improvements in Japan's budget deficit. There is a 24% increase in corporate taxes in Japan's budget estimates for 2015 compared to Dec. 2012 when prime minister Abe assumed office. This will help reduce the budget deficit. The budget assumes an oil price of $69, making the budget plan achievable with prices below $50 in Jan. 2015. For the next fiscal year tax revenue is expected to increase by 5.4% over the prior year, with half of the increase from the sales tax increase and the other half from the higher economic growth. Budget projections assume 3.6% global economic growth, exports up by 5.2% in real terms, and imports up 3.9%. Spending is kept under control increasing by just 0.5% from the current fiscal year budget, and borrowing reduced by 11%. The government plan is to produce a primary budget surplus by 2020, and cut the deficit by half in the primary budget which excludes bond issuance and interest payments, by fiscal 2015....

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Peugeot's finances come as a shock to the French government as it cuts spending to reduce the deficit. A 3 billion euro loan was made to Peugeot in 2009. Another loan may be needed from the French government says Peaple because Peugeot is losing 200 million euros in cash each month. One key reason for Peugeot's problems is that it gets 58% of its sales in Europe, with particular emphasis in southern European countries, and demand in key markets France, Italy and the UK is expected to decline by about 7- 10%, according to Moody's forecasts. Peugeot's operating loss for the first half of 2012 was 700 million euros. The plan to close the Aulnay plant and other planned cost reductions may not be enough say experts. The closing of that plant could save 600-700 million euros, according to JP Morgan estimates. This would improve operating profit margins to 3.3% from 2.2% based on 2011 results, and this may not happen with the price competition in these markets. This leaves Peugeot in a precarious position....

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In the face of relentless questioning Goldman CEO Blankfein, CFO Viniar ,and Mortgage Products VP, Fabrice Tourre, hold tightly to their story that they did nothing wrong. At one point Viniar was asked by Senator Levin of Michigan how he felt about Goldman employees describing the deals by Goldman in sour terms. Viniar replied that it was unfortunate that it showed up in the email. Levin asked Viniar whether he had no qualms about the matter much less about the email. Mostly the four Goldman executives questioned and the senators seemed to be talking past each other, with the senators- Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kaufman Jr. of Delaware, John Ensign of Nevada, Susan Collins of Maine, Claire McCaskill of Missouri- appearing exasperated that the Goldman witnesses were dodging questions or simply buying time. Senator Pryor compared the whole thing to Vegas casino gambling to which Senator Ensign said that it was more like playing a slot machine while these types from Wall Street were manipulating things in their favor, even Vegas casino were not manipulating the odds while the game was being played. ...

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Tom Friedman of the NYT talks with retiring Israeli defense minister, and former prime minister, Ehud Barak, in Tel Aviv. Barak makes the case for seizing opportunities as they arise in a difficult situation, which might be lost if Israel adopts a permanently pessimstic state of mind about the prospect of peace with Arab countries. Barak and Friedman suggest the approach of the Israeli government of prime minister Netanyahu has risks of highlighting the dangers to Israel at its borders, to the point where Israel could lose the ability to make wise and sensible judgements as these opportunities arise, and the Middle East itself changes. Because of the political struggles and conflict in the Middle East this may obscure the newly emerging Middle East, which needs economic advancement to support the aspirations of the overwhelmingly young populations in these countries. This has the potential for a new dynamic that could see the Middle East move beyond Israel to seizing the opportunities presented by economic and technical progress. Similiar to the other nations of Asia, including the Muslim nations of Turkey and Indonesia. ...

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Davey and Walsh tell the story of years of mismanagement in a city that lacked proper record keeping to keep track of costs. A municipal auditor brought in a financial consultant as far back as 2005. He found an additional $7.2 billion in retiree health costs that had never been taken into account. That warning was ignored. All the time the city was losing jobs with mismanagement at the auto companies and lack of labor-management cooperation. The Kilpatrick years as Mayor were largely wasted as problems piled up. The city was unable to borrow, and its revenue base was continually shrinking. Under Mayor Bing the city had a hard time meeting payroll. Other cities had faced financial crisis before, New York in 1975. Detroit was different in that two of the three major auto companies went into bankruptcy followed by the city itself facing bankruptcy, with mismanagement of finances and lack of a good plan for the city and the auto industry that brought everyone together behind a single goal of regeneration. ...

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After years of negotiations Russia and China reached agreement on a memorandum that provides deliveries by Gazprom of 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas to China by 2018, under a 30 year supply deal. The pipeline to deliver gas to China is part of a $50 billion project for a pipeline that takes gas to Vladivostock for liquefaction. A spur from that pipeline would take gas to China. This would make China the largest importer of natural gas from Russia. In 2012 Germany imported 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia, followed by other large importers Ukraine, Turkey, Belarus and Italy. A new agreement between China and Russia's state owned oil company, Rosneft, doubles the oil imports to 31 million metric tons a year under a 25 year deal. The current level of imports is 15 million tons set by a deal in 2009. The lower price of natural gas going to Europe helped the two countries bridge differences over price. China's National Petroleum Corporation will partner with Rosneft for exploration in new oil fields in the Russian Arctic region....

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Richard Posner, who teaches at the University of Chicago, and is federal appellate judge, takes an incisive look at the economic crisis. Posner says this was not a failure in the sense of irresponsibility alone of people involved, but a failure of capitalism, and that capitalism is prone to failure unless properly governed. Markets left to their own devices can fail, monetary policy is not enough to counteract other deep seated problems. Under capitalist system people can make individually rational decisions like continuing to invest in mortgage securtite if they were financial institutions, or losing the profits to be made, and collectively make irrational and in time enormously costly decisions, with no less consequences on an individual basis when things collapse. "We are learning," he says "that we need a more active and intelligent government to keep our model of a capitalist economy from running off the rails." But that may be nothing more than returning to common sense, or a healthy dose of skepticism for overblown claims for any system or form of economics or politics. ...

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Suki Kim describes how South Korea got addicted to credit cards. In 1999, after the Asian financial crisis, he says the South Korean government tried to stimulate consumer spending to help the economy. It encouraged banks to issue credit cards freely. By 2003, a South Korean journalist Dong-A-Ilbo says, the streets of Seoul were filled with credit card vendors, handing out cards to anyone willing to fillout an application, to college students, to the unemployed. By 2003, every South Korean had on average 4 credit cards, and collective debts of $100 billion. The cards became a status symbol, but many families lost their savings as credit card debt mounted. After millions defaulted and an increase in crime, prostitution and other problems, the South Korean government went in and bailed out LG Card, the largest issuer of the cards. The rescue worked, as credit card companies tightened standards. But South Korea has changed in one way- the national savings rate in 1998 was 25%, by 2007 it fell to 2.5%!...

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Walmart opens its first store in Amritsar, India, as part of a long term expansion in India. It is a 50,000 square foot Best Price store, a rarity in India. Walmart and its Indian partner Bharti Enterprises plan to open 15 stores in India in the next 3 years. Mike Duke former head of Walmart's international operation is now the new CEO. He has recruited local managers who understand and grasp how to market in India. Walmart India CEO, Raj Jain, has worked for 20 years with Unilever and Whirlpool in India. Unilever India, has a strong local presence in India for decades. Big wholesalers can be a poltically sensitive issue in India, where the retail industry serving 1.1 billion people is mostly an estimated 10 million mom and pop stores, who fear being overrun by these large wholesalers. Walmart operates as a wholesale store selling to local merchants, a cash and carry business selling 10,000 products to licensed store owners, schools, hospitals, hotels and other institutions. Even now under Indian rules governing foreign retailers, this Walmart venture cannot sell directly to consumers....

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Tyler Cowen, Professor of Economics at George Mason University, points out some basic truths about health care as it is practiced today in the USA, and healthcare spending as it stands today. He questions whether starting out with extra spending plans to provide coverage to all will help solve the basic problems facing American health care. Too many tests and diagnostic procedures used by doctors is not aproblem that will be solved by spending more money to cover everyone. And government taking on more spending to cover all will not address all the other major shortcomings of the American way of practicing medicine, like prescribing a battery of tests, that tend to drive up costs, to just mention one of the problems. And it will not address any of the shortcomings in the way Americans take care of their health, diet, exercize and healthy lifestyles. THese are critical to get good health outcomes for the people, and which combined with careful spending of dollars where it will provide the greatest benefit, is the only way the health care solutions can be found....

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A survey by Boston Consulting Group of 5000 users of online news content shows that only 48% of Americans are willing to pay to read news content online. They are willing to pay about $3 per month for access to online news content. This is much smaller than European countries presumably because of the acess to so much news content free online in the USA. The study was done by Mr Rose and Dominic Field, head of the media practice at BCG. News content is so fragmented in the USA, say the authors, that its still possible to find free content if some papers charge. Interestingly Americans were more likely to pay for sites that offered access to online news content for multiple papers. The most avid news readers are the ones most lik,ely to pay.The study concludes that charging for online access won't increase revenue that much but because the cost of reaching internet readers is very low, it has potential for significantly higher profits. Other countries surveyed are Germany, France, Spain, Norway and Finland....

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Honda Motor Company will have one bright spot as sales of motor bikes increase from 13.9 million to 14.9 million for 2009. Honda two wheelers sell briskly in Asia and South America, where they are considered low-price necessities. On the other hand Honda's auto sales will drop by 400,000 to 3.5 million for the fiscal year ending in March 2009. Honda will post a profit of $860 million or 80 million yen for this fiscal year, down 87%, by contrast Toyota will post a loss of 350 billion yen, and Nissan a loss of 265 billion yen. Honda is seeing huge growth in markets like Indonesia where $50 can be a down payment on a motorcycle., Honda sold 2.8 million motorbikes there up 34%.. Now sales are predicted by Honda Motor to drop to somewhere between 2.1 and 2.5 million bikes. Honda markets heavily to people under 25 in Indonesia, who make up half the population of 240 million people. Honda is also working on lowering costs of manufacturing by focussing on production in India, China, Thailand and Vietnam. ...

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Philippe Varin faces some tough decisions when he takes over Peugeot-Citroen. Unlike the turnaroungd he achieved at Corus steel group where the booming demand from China for steel helped, this time the auto market in Europe is declining by about 30%. He has to navigate betwen the interests of the Peugeot family which has 45% of the voting rights, employees who are affected by the cost cutting, the French government which has required no closing of factories for as long as the company receives governement aid. Peugeot-Citroen received a low interest loan of 3 billion euros from the French government. Questions he will have to address, as do all auto manufacturers in the USA and Europe relate to overcapacity as demand declines. And for Peugeot this has to be tackled without factory closures. And the other major issue facing auto manufacturers worldwide is how much to focus on the fuel efficient small car segment. Peugeot has key strengths in this segment and Varin may decide on refocussing on this segment....

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Comments in the report on the settlement with BP of the U.S Justice Department for pipe line leaks and a refinery fire as well as a violations by BP energy traders to manipulate the propane market. Interesting comments about the background of Tom Hayward and Sir Browne his predecessor, and about how one started out as a geologist on a oil rig in 1982, was exploration manager in Colombia and headed up th BP Venezuela, before becoming head of BP Exploration and Production. That Tony Hayward was known as the turtle, a term for managers being prepared for leadership, and Sir Browne as the sun king inside BP, is revealing, as it says much about the 2 leaders. Hayward having started out on an oil rig is more hands on and mixes easily with workers. Hayward has given himself 18 months to clear the redundant layers of management to bring him closer to operations at BP, and to fix the maintenance and other problems that led to the pipeline leaks and the refinery fire.

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Even though exports are gaining in Iowa and overall it has benefitted from free trade, the wages in Iowa as elsewhere have suffered as companies pressed hard by global competition are reducing their wage. This is one way globalization is hurting workers in Iowa as it is hitting workers in other states. The two tier wage system at John Deere provides for lower wages for new younger workers. This is hurting incomes in the state. Because of these changes politically free trade is not very popular in the state and this reflects feeling acrss the country. The trend is to argue for protecting the wages of American workers by changing free trade agreements to include environmental and labor protections for oveseas workers so that this closes some of the gap between the wages here and overseas. The advantage to American workers of lower prices at a Walmart is more than offset by the lower wages as products are manufactured overseas and wage pressures are felt at home is the feeling reflected in some of the opinions expressed in Iowa....

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The clout of China's environmental agency the State Environment Protection Administration has grown significnatly in the past 12 months. SEPA rejected 110 projects in 2006 for environmental damage, and in 2007 it rejected 187 or about $91 billion worth of projects for environmental damage. China requires environemntal asses ment for sttell mills, power plants and other projects as part of the approval process. So even as criticism of the Chinese government has built up for environmental damage SEPA is getting new clout and the government is rethinking how all these projects can some day come back to haunt the administration for environmental impact if something isnt done very quickly to cancel all projects that dont meet environmental quality standards. This is something to keep watching first because it ensures longterm sustainable economic progress and second it reduces the cost of cleaning up which would reduce economic growth in the future, third because the quality of air and water lead to really sustainable economic development in the future. This is a Watch Link for sustainable economic development. ...

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On December 29th 2007 just before the new year 2008 the year of the Beijing Olympics a predicition that sooner or later, sometime soon maybe after the Olympics the stock market in China which is running at some 65-75 time earnings in Shanghai and Shenzen is going to blow up. Its a facade of an orderly equity market which it isn't. The state control many of the stocks and how the stock market operates, good information on companies is scarce, some of the earnings and the investments of companies are in the stock market itself, and not many shares actually change hands as government held companies or other companies have large holdings. Without good accounting who knows if the earnings are not inflated. There are very few alternative investments as savings accounts yield less than inflation and Chinese laws do not permit investing abroad so all this money is flooding the stock markets and it keeps going up so there isn't the situation where stocks go up and down as in a normal market.

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The amount of cash companies are holding as a percentage of total assets is rising and is high has it has ever been since the 1960's. One study shows that the average cash ratio doubled from 1998 to 2004 as debt levels fell. According to S&P total cash held by compaies in its industrial index exceeded $600 billion in February up from 203 billion dollars in 1998. This was mentioned as a bright spot by Ben Bernanke amid the prevailing gloom about the credit crunch. But Prof Stulz and 2 other professors at Ohio State in a study show that this rise reflects the greater risk of doing business in a globalized economy and companies are holding higher levels of cash to reflect this. They hold smaller inventories and spending by tech companies which form a larger portion of the companies than before is more on research and development than on capital equipment. This shows up in the higher level of cash on hand for emergencies and as money for a rainy day.

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Ethanol stocks are trading for what they were went they went public in 2006 or early 2007 way down from the highs they reached. When the IPO's were done corn was $1.80 a bushe and ethaol was $4.50 a gallon, since then things have changed and corn is now $5.64 a bushel and ethanol is $2.60 a gallon, corn prices tripling and ethanol prices almost half of what they were. So things look very different now. It takes refiners one bushel of corn to produce 2.8 gallons of ethanol. Ethanol sudden surge was because of its use as a replacement to methyl tertiary-butyl ether, a gasoline additive that has been proved to be a carcinogenic groundwater pollutant. But there are many uncertainties surrounding ethanol, the price of gasoline, corn, and ethanol and the future government mandates, subsidies to refiners and a possibility that tariffs on imported ethanol may be reduced or eliminated, and the effects on food prices of dedicating so much corn production to ethanol creates other concerns. So the inital excitement as faded....

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For the first time coordinated rate cuts of half a percentage point by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England. Yet markets in the swung wildly on Tuesday, October 7, 2008, opening down 200 points then up 200 points after a 500 point drop on the previous day Monday. Asian markets got hammered with steep selloffs as the crisis showed no signs of abating. Previously the ECB had resisted lowering rates saying the crisis was more of an American one with secondary effects in Europe, but the squeeze in the credit markets in Europe and the same fears of banks refusing to lend to one another ocurred in Europe over the last few days so the ECB has reconsidered its view. Meantime emerging markets like Russia and Brazil and other countries are getting hammered. Most Asian markets had already closed by the time the coordinating central banks had acted, Japan's Nikkei declining b 9.4% in its worst one day loss since 1987 and the Hong Kong Hang Seng went down by 8.2%.

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With better currency reserves and lower debt the Asian countries are in a better position than in the 1997 crisis. But a big problem will be lack of export markets. In 1997 Asian countries could export their way out of difficulties and the devaluations actually helped exports. And domestic markets are weak with weaker currencies making imports more expensive. In the past 10 years consumption as a percent of GDP has fallen in China and elsewhere in Asia outside Japan, even as exports as a percentage of GDP have grown by about 30%. And this has implications for Russia, Brazil, Australia and other countries which send soyabeans, mining products, commodities and oil to meet Asian demand. Riskier still is the prospect as Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia reminds people. is that when the tide goes out you can see the rocks for the first time which were covered by the hyper growth of China. China may see a big increase in nonperforming loans for its banking system, loans tied to the real estate sector where prices are falling. ...

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Turkey's former minister of economic affairs and treasury on the need for IMF help too all developing countries that need help and have followed reasonably good economic policies, without simply labeling policies as good or bad in an oversimplified way. Decisions should he says reflect the widespread need for fiscal stimulus in te face of collapsing demand for exports and declining private expenditures. And here also IMF resources are close to $200 billion and the needs of developing countries are estimated between $500 billion and $800 billion. China and the Gulf states need to step in and steps taken quickly to associate them in a more substanital way till improvements are made in IMF governance.He is looking for help in weeks not months. Dervis points to the need for fairness in eligibility criteria for help with help not limited to countries with political clout or systemic importance, wheras other countries have to engage in protracted negotiations with intrusive conditions such as those which raise interest rates in the face of collapsing demand as in the past. ...

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Andy Stern, head of the Service Employees International Union, in an interview with WSJ's Matthew Kaminski. Membership at the SEIU has doubled to 2 million while other unions have gone into steady decline. In 2005, Stern took the SEIU out of the AFL-CIO preferring grassroots organization over political emphasis and emphasizing the shift to a service and global economy. He sees a new situation from the one in 1993, as the issues facing the country have changed. He lists the income inequality and stagnation of wages. He prefers the European model. Better a little more unemployment as Western Europe has done, but a lot more equality, says Stern. And as the ranks of the uninsured swell with the half a million laid off workers in November in the USA reported by the Labor Department, the first priority for the union is universal health care. With donations of $85 million from the SEIU being the largest of the total union donations of $450 million for this years elecion campaigns, the SEIU hopes to hold the new administration accountable....